Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
So an interesting question came up in my Trader Joes thread the other day, and I thought I'd come in to the Shark Pool and share a few thoughts I had. Take them for what they are worth - my opinion, based on what I know, see, read and hear about NFL players.
This time of year everyone is hunting for that next breakout guy. You know, that waiver wire wonder that will propel your team to greatness. Last year the wire was rich with Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, Jacob Tamme and Brandon Lloyd - basically you could have pulled a waiver wire team by Week 4 and crushed your league - all with players who went undrafted. Unheard of, and dare I say unprecedented. That said, we still want to hunt for that next Brandon Lloyd, so I thought I'd help a little - hopefully.
Here's what I am looking for in a wide receiver who may surprise, in no particular order:
1. Situation - A team that is going to have a good offense, and preferably one that will throw quite a bit
2. Opportunity - he has to get on the field, and make the most of it when he is out there.
3. Situation (again) - Is there room in the offense for him to be the WR2, or even the WR1? If so, is the RB and/or TE going to get more targets than WR2 (or WR1)?
4. Situation (again) - The QB better not stink.
5. Talent - He has to have the ability to stand out and make coaches notice that he's doing the right thing, even when he's not the intended target.
6. Situation (again) - if the defense is bad and the ground game is bad, by default the passing game gains value. See Denver, 2010.
I'm hopeful that all 6 questions are positive marks for this player, but I'll take 3-4 and hope for the best. I might love a WR3 with upside on Green Bay vs. a WR2 on a lesser team for example.
So there were quite a few names that were thrown about in the question I received. I'll try and whittle down the list as I go, but here's quite a few of them.
Potential WRs (beyond say the Top 30-40 guys) that could be viewed with breakout potential:
Massaquoi - CLE sucks
Little - see above - love the talent here, but the lockout REALLY hurt him.
Simpson - CIN sucks
I'll stop here. See, even if you LOVE Simpson, do you really want the CIN WR2 this year? Do you think he'll really break out and be a fantasy stud this season? I could make a case for AJ Green, but not the WR2. I just don't see it. Again - Lloyd was the WR1 in Denver, the primary target. That's your goal.
Decker - I like Eric Decker, but the problem is that we're fighting over the WR2 again. Lloyd will be WR1, and they don't even want to throw as much this year.
David Nelson - WR2 at best on BUF. Again, same issue.
Baldwin - SEA sucks. Even if he was the WR1 (and won't be once Rice is back) - Two words - Tarvaris Jackson. Move on.
Roberts - splits time with Doucet, WR2. Wrecks both of their values, and Kolb is better than AZ QB 2010, but Fitz is Fitz and with Beanie looking good (and playing the NFC West) they may not throw 35+ times a week. Sorry, move on.
DHB - really? no. I don't buy it - and Jason Campbell? I like him, and he could be the 2011 Kyle Orton, but I don't buy DHB as your guy. Right kind of situation (aside from no running game), but maybe not the right person.
Den. Moore - could be your guy - but OAK is still iffy.
Shorts - JAX sucks
Jabar Gaffney - shoulda had 2 TDs, missed a bomb on a bad Rex throw
Ant Brown - doesn't know how to remember a route tree
Sanders - could be your guy
Cobb - sleeper
Ford - top choice
I have to assume Jacoby Ford is taken, but I'm seeing a ton of drops of him due to being out this week in some Yahoo leagues and elsewhere. I guess if you have a short bench and injury woes I get it, but that's a bit quick to yank the rip cord on him.
My short list:
Randall Cobb - Here's the tough one. I certainly have Jordy Nelson above him (if he's available, go for it and don't look back). After Greg Jennings and Finley, the door's open for targets - and there will be plenty in Green Bay. Nelson looks like target #3 and Driver should be 4th - for now. Cobb is the heir apparent there and it is possible that he sees more opportunities soon. Driver knows the end is nearing, so he may be relegated even further down. The question is - is the fourth target in GB comparable to target 1 or 2 on another team? That's the key question. I think I'd prefer to look elsewhere.
Denarius Moore - could start this week, but OAK isn't so hot and they want to run. They have RUN DMC who can get it done. I like his shot this week, but Campbell may not throw much.
Eric Decker - Denver also wants to run and their defense is also poor, but to run you need RBs. They don't have really good ones (and McGahee > Moreno), so I think Decker is your 2nd option - although he's WR2 for Den at best.
That leaves me with the guy I'm still holding out on - and why I decided to write this tonight. Tomorrow might be too late. I think that Emmanuel Sanders is the guy. I favor better offenses when I'm on the fence. I'm still beating the Sanders drum. PITT has good offense and QB, great schedule, and their defense isn't all it once was. That sounds like 31-24 games. As for the pecking order, the offensive line is rough and that means Heath Miller can't go out for passes often. Mike Wallace is option 1, and WR2 for now is a very old Hines Ward. Antonio Brown was supposed to be the guy now, and last week he was - except he can't figure out which way to turn half the time when he runs the routes. Sanders even scored last week despite being WR4, and he's getting healthier every day.
I think Pittsburgh puts a beatdown on Seattle in their home opener, and Sanders could emerge from that with a Week 2 stat line of seven targets, 5-75 and a touchdown. At the very least I'm watching to see if he's passed Brown now for snaps and WR3 status. Last year he was pushing Ward for playing time and targets, making him a dark horse for this year. Only a preseason injury slowed him down.
So now you know my criteria, and you have a short list. Feel free to applaud or throw cyber-tomatoes on Monday.
1. Jacoby Ford (if you have room and he's there)
2. Emmanuel Sanders - likely #1 for most
3. D. Moore OAK
4. Eric Decker
Only one of those names (Sanders) is in a Top 10 offense with a Top 10 QB - so that's where I really lean.
Good luck.
Please feel free to comment on my conclusions and also throw out WRs who you think might fit the bill of the 5 things above.
This time of year everyone is hunting for that next breakout guy. You know, that waiver wire wonder that will propel your team to greatness. Last year the wire was rich with Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, Jacob Tamme and Brandon Lloyd - basically you could have pulled a waiver wire team by Week 4 and crushed your league - all with players who went undrafted. Unheard of, and dare I say unprecedented. That said, we still want to hunt for that next Brandon Lloyd, so I thought I'd help a little - hopefully.
Here's what I am looking for in a wide receiver who may surprise, in no particular order:
1. Situation - A team that is going to have a good offense, and preferably one that will throw quite a bit
2. Opportunity - he has to get on the field, and make the most of it when he is out there.
3. Situation (again) - Is there room in the offense for him to be the WR2, or even the WR1? If so, is the RB and/or TE going to get more targets than WR2 (or WR1)?
4. Situation (again) - The QB better not stink.
5. Talent - He has to have the ability to stand out and make coaches notice that he's doing the right thing, even when he's not the intended target.
6. Situation (again) - if the defense is bad and the ground game is bad, by default the passing game gains value. See Denver, 2010.
I'm hopeful that all 6 questions are positive marks for this player, but I'll take 3-4 and hope for the best. I might love a WR3 with upside on Green Bay vs. a WR2 on a lesser team for example.
So there were quite a few names that were thrown about in the question I received. I'll try and whittle down the list as I go, but here's quite a few of them.
Potential WRs (beyond say the Top 30-40 guys) that could be viewed with breakout potential:
Massaquoi - CLE sucks
Little - see above - love the talent here, but the lockout REALLY hurt him.
Simpson - CIN sucks
I'll stop here. See, even if you LOVE Simpson, do you really want the CIN WR2 this year? Do you think he'll really break out and be a fantasy stud this season? I could make a case for AJ Green, but not the WR2. I just don't see it. Again - Lloyd was the WR1 in Denver, the primary target. That's your goal.
Decker - I like Eric Decker, but the problem is that we're fighting over the WR2 again. Lloyd will be WR1, and they don't even want to throw as much this year.
David Nelson - WR2 at best on BUF. Again, same issue.
Baldwin - SEA sucks. Even if he was the WR1 (and won't be once Rice is back) - Two words - Tarvaris Jackson. Move on.
Roberts - splits time with Doucet, WR2. Wrecks both of their values, and Kolb is better than AZ QB 2010, but Fitz is Fitz and with Beanie looking good (and playing the NFC West) they may not throw 35+ times a week. Sorry, move on.
DHB - really? no. I don't buy it - and Jason Campbell? I like him, and he could be the 2011 Kyle Orton, but I don't buy DHB as your guy. Right kind of situation (aside from no running game), but maybe not the right person.
Den. Moore - could be your guy - but OAK is still iffy.
Shorts - JAX sucks
Jabar Gaffney - shoulda had 2 TDs, missed a bomb on a bad Rex throw
Ant Brown - doesn't know how to remember a route tree
Sanders - could be your guy
Cobb - sleeper
Ford - top choice
I have to assume Jacoby Ford is taken, but I'm seeing a ton of drops of him due to being out this week in some Yahoo leagues and elsewhere. I guess if you have a short bench and injury woes I get it, but that's a bit quick to yank the rip cord on him.
My short list:
Randall Cobb - Here's the tough one. I certainly have Jordy Nelson above him (if he's available, go for it and don't look back). After Greg Jennings and Finley, the door's open for targets - and there will be plenty in Green Bay. Nelson looks like target #3 and Driver should be 4th - for now. Cobb is the heir apparent there and it is possible that he sees more opportunities soon. Driver knows the end is nearing, so he may be relegated even further down. The question is - is the fourth target in GB comparable to target 1 or 2 on another team? That's the key question. I think I'd prefer to look elsewhere.
Denarius Moore - could start this week, but OAK isn't so hot and they want to run. They have RUN DMC who can get it done. I like his shot this week, but Campbell may not throw much.
Eric Decker - Denver also wants to run and their defense is also poor, but to run you need RBs. They don't have really good ones (and McGahee > Moreno), so I think Decker is your 2nd option - although he's WR2 for Den at best.
That leaves me with the guy I'm still holding out on - and why I decided to write this tonight. Tomorrow might be too late. I think that Emmanuel Sanders is the guy. I favor better offenses when I'm on the fence. I'm still beating the Sanders drum. PITT has good offense and QB, great schedule, and their defense isn't all it once was. That sounds like 31-24 games. As for the pecking order, the offensive line is rough and that means Heath Miller can't go out for passes often. Mike Wallace is option 1, and WR2 for now is a very old Hines Ward. Antonio Brown was supposed to be the guy now, and last week he was - except he can't figure out which way to turn half the time when he runs the routes. Sanders even scored last week despite being WR4, and he's getting healthier every day.
I think Pittsburgh puts a beatdown on Seattle in their home opener, and Sanders could emerge from that with a Week 2 stat line of seven targets, 5-75 and a touchdown. At the very least I'm watching to see if he's passed Brown now for snaps and WR3 status. Last year he was pushing Ward for playing time and targets, making him a dark horse for this year. Only a preseason injury slowed him down.
So now you know my criteria, and you have a short list. Feel free to applaud or throw cyber-tomatoes on Monday.
1. Jacoby Ford (if you have room and he's there)
2. Emmanuel Sanders - likely #1 for most
3. D. Moore OAK
4. Eric Decker
Only one of those names (Sanders) is in a Top 10 offense with a Top 10 QB - so that's where I really lean.
Good luck.
Please feel free to comment on my conclusions and also throw out WRs who you think might fit the bill of the 5 things above.
