Hunting for Brandon Lloyd (1 Viewer)

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Interesting post - thanks. What about Johnny Knox?

Do you not recall that Lloyd came out of NOWHERE last season?? Definetely not the case with Knox.

Why is everyone looking for someone to come from NOWHERE just because Lloyd did last year? We're just looking for a guy on your waiver wire that will score in the top 10-15. Stop making it so impossible.

Because in most leagues I play in SOMEWHERE is on another players roster, and you can't just pick up players from there.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

To the posters pointing out Burleson I am assuming he is already scooped up in most leagues.

I'm sticking with my Antonio Brown pick vs Manny Sanders - Brown showed a lot to me in pre-season and week1 Ben targeted him 9 times.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Great thread. Lloyd had his breakout game week 3 of last year so these next two games should provide a nice sample size on the players mentioned. We should start another thread Hunting for 2011's Peyton Hillis.

Deji Karim and Ben Tate are close, and Delone Carter is still a favorite of mine.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hey Jeff, I just wanted to say thank you very much for this terrific post, it provides some expert clarity for an issue I have been struggling with in more than one league.Question about Ford. He actually did get dropped in one of my leagues so I think I will jump on that when possible: The Campbell passing game looked so poor in that Denver game, the running game seems so dominant, and Ford has some kind of hamstring injury that seems to have no information behind it, plus at some point Murphy comes back, so how long do you wait for this to pan out? Also about Sanders vs Antonio Brown - and I am adding Sanders wherever possible based on the great posts here - how is it that Brown ended up with 9 targets (Wallace 11, Ward 9, Miller 5) and Sanders only 3? Obviously Sanders did more with his but looking at that it seems like Brown is more in the top 3 mix?Also, it's interesting to go back and look at the week by week progression for Denver last year: wk 1 started out with Lloyd having the big game but Royal also doing well and Gaffney also doing very well. Wk 2 it was Thomas and Lloyd fell back. Wk 3 Gaffney exploded but then so did Lloyd. It was wk 4 and after that Lloyd really took over. The point being that folks who knew and understood the real talents and roles at stake made the right call. So insight like you're giving is pretty important.Thanks again.

You're quite welcome. I'll try and do a little more of this, or at least tweet about it. Obviously more clarity comes in longer posts.ETA: I wait until OAK has a WR1 before bailing on Ford. With him out and DMoore starting, I might grab him now and wait and see. If he stumbles this week, drop and grab Ford.On ESanders - he was WR4 in Week 1 to give Brown a shot (he earned it) as WR3. His routes weren't good and Sanders is getting healthier - plus he scored on his limited chances. Stock up for ES, down for AB.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Not sure there will be a Brandon Lloyd this year. I think the WR darkhorses are going to come from the WR4/5 ranks.My picks are all from the NFC North:Jordy NelsonNate BurlesonJohnny KnoxIMO Jordy has a realistic chance at a high WR2 this year. Plenty of mouths to feed in the Packer offense will keep him from WR1 status, but I think he's separated himself from Driver/Jones and Cobb will need a year to learn the offense. Burleson could have a career year. Every defense will gameplan to stop Megatron, and Burleson will benefit in a big way. Pettigrew will have a good year too, but 1100/7 wouldn't surprise me in the least. His health and Staffords' are the key of course.Knox is in the 2nd year of the Martz offense, and Cutler is really lacking in quality options outside of Forte. Once Knox proves that he's not going to cause Cutler to throw additional INTs, he'll be gold.

Didn't mention Burleson as I have him already in my Top 40 I think. I agree he could have a career year.

FWIW Burlesons' ADP is WR48. Nelson is WR46 and Knox is WR39.Just seems to me they all have the QB to get it done and relatively good opportunity as well.

ADP is meaningless at this point now, though. I have Burleson above most of these guys, if not all.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

How about Nate Burleson?

Covered - like him, figured he's on a roster. Grab if available.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

A few things I disagree with.

4. Situation (again) - The QB better not stink.

Orton isn't exactly a tremendous QB, Braylon had a huge year with DA who stinks then had a solid year with Sanchez whose regular season production stinks. Matt Ryan threw for only 3,400 and 16 his rookie season and yet White put up 1400/7, goinginto last year Fitzpatrick was considered a stinker and Steve Johnson was a beast. In fact just going on top 20 non ppr results guys who didn't exactly have good QB situations we have2010- Santana Moss, Percy Harvin, T.O., Larry Fitzgerald2009- Steve Smith, Brandon Marshall2008- Steve Smith, Bernard Berrian2007- Braylon Edwards, Plaxico BurressOne of the hallmarks of a bad QB is locking onto one WR and forcing the ball. While bad for his team it can be very good for a WRs fantasy production. Eliminating guys on this criteria you definitely would have missed Braylon in 2007 and possibly Plax depending on how you thought Eli would progress and def missed Berrian in 2008. With this in mind I would rethink-Mo Mass. As far as a Lloyd type year? No, but a Berrian like 950/7 could well be in the cards. He had 7 targets despite missing all of preseason and only really practicing 1 week before the opener. Cle Right side of the Oline looked pretty atrocious and if they can't run it effectively they will have to throw.

David Nelson - WR2 at best on BUF. Again, same issue.

Fitzpatrick's prorated #s for 2010- 3,700/28. Those #s are plenty strong enough to support 2 WRs (28 passing TDs would represent Roeth's 2nd best season as a pro and you are willing to take a guy who is currently battling for #3 on that team) especially without a real established TE or RB threat.

DHB - really? no. I don't buy it - and Jason Campbell? I like him, and he could be the 2011 Kyle Orton, but I don't buy DHB as your guy. Right kind of situation (aside from no running game), but maybe not the right person.

Louis Murphy is on my watch list should he make it back within the next week or two.

Jabar Gaffney - shoulda had 2 TDs, missed a bomb on a bad Rex throw

2 TDs in one game would have equaled his 2nd best career SEASON. Lloyd was at least in his prime when he broke out at 31 for Gaffney to break out as the clear #2 receiver and likely 3rd or 4th in total targets this year would be twice as shocking as Lloyd's break out.

Cobb - sleeper

Totally unconcerned about Cobb this year. On the field for 7 snaps and Rodgers even admits he ran the totally wrong route on his TD. Rookies aren't likely to impact that team on a weekly basis.

Too long to break up and comment individually with limited time - I like some of the thoughts. Fitz and David Nelson covered earlier - good call. Not saying yes or no, just like PIT better and BUF has NE/NYJ 4x this year.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Time to run - enjoy Week 2. Good luck.

 

[killrobotkill]

Great article, Jeff. So how about Jabar Gaffney? I think he meets most of your criteria.

He's an interesting one, but Santana Moss is WR1 and TE1 is Fred Davis. Then comes WR2 rotation - Gaffney or Armstrong. Armstrong is the deep threat, while Gaffney has breakout potential on the right route. He barely missed a huge TD last week, but Armstrong still had 6 targets - and don't forget Hightower's in the mix, too. Philly will be bad matchups twice this year, but DAL and NYG should be favorable. Also I don't have Sexy Rexy as a Top 10 QB, nor will they abandon the run.So I like Gaffney, but his ceiling is lower than what Sanders could do if he reaches max potential. To say it another way, no way Gaffney attains Brandon Lloyd levels (duh), but I also don't see 75-1000-8 for him either. He's a solid WR4 type that can fill a lineup, but I wouldn't want to need a big game on Monday night and have Gaffney be that guy to hope for. Even Armstrong could have a 100-yard game as a higher likelihood than Gaffney most weeks due to his deep threat potential.

Thanks for the response. Gaffney felt like a safe WR3/WR4 type to me that you could plug in if you needed low risk/low reward numbers for a week, but you verbalized why much better than I could. I actually could have acquired Sanders last week, and probably still could, but the only thing holding me back is that I already have Mike Wallace, and have always shied away from having two WRs from the same team on my squad. Not to go off on a tangent, but would you still pick up a guy on this list if you already had the top dog WR1 from the same NFL team? Thanks again.

 

[cr8f]

Interesting post - thanks. What about Johnny Knox?

Not a bad name to drop, but will he see enough targets? Even last year he wasn't getting a ton in the Red Zone. I'd definitely grab him and roster him though - nice name to add.

Probably taken too. Lloyd let so many people down over the years many didn't believe it when he did it.

 

[netnalp]

Starting to think this years Lloyd, is S. Smith (Panthers)

Good call on Sanders! thanks Jeff!

 

[bonesman]

It's Devery.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Wouldn't say it is Devery.

Sanders looked good, but so did ABrown. Also Ward isn't going away.

NWash call was a good one. He racked up quite a bit of catches and yards.

BUF threw a ton, so hard to call which WR to have - but that passing game looks for real. Grab Nelson and hope for another big game next week vs. NE, which should be a shootout. Fitzgerald looks really good.

Also - D. Moore looks to be OAK's WR1. Grab him.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I dont get the love for Sanders. Hines is still there and got twice as many targets as Sanders today, and over 2 games, Brown has 9 more targets than Sanders. Today, Brown 4/67, Sanders 2/44. Im not sold either can be a WR3 this year with Ward staying healthy, but they both have longterm potential.

Right now Id be all over David Nelson, and if youre lucky enough to find him on your WW, Denarius Moore. Both have much more value in 2011 than the Steelers WRs, and Im a PIT homer.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

This thread was an inspiration for cutting dead wood from my team and picking up Eric Decker. It was either him or D. Nelson. Oh well, at least I got one of the guys who everyone was going to spend their whole waiver wire wad. Should have picked up both. Thanks to Pasquino for the heads up.

This is a nice thread that should be recurring every Saturday, as we mine the wires in advance of the breakout players.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

This thread was an inspiration for cutting dead wood from my team and picking up Eric Decker. It was either him or D. Nelson. Oh well, at least I got one of the guys who everyone was going to spend their whole waiver wire wad. Should have picked up both. Thanks to Pasquino for the heads up. This is a nice thread that should be recurring every Saturday, as we mine the wires in advance of the breakout players.

Odds are that I'll wrap this thread with the late guys who did well and we'll try RBs next.Decker was a stud today. Holley in DAL was a surprise, but he's a one-week wonder with Dez coming back.Jerome Simpson also looked good even as the WR2 to Green - who looks like a must start every week even in CIN.

 

[Horses Mouth]

Jeff, do you think guys like Decker, Nelson, and Moore are better options moving forward than vets like Hines, or Lee Evans for example. I know championships are won picking up guys like the aforementioned, but it's hard to gauge at this point who is the real deal and worthy of cutting a low risk/low reward but consistent player WR3 like Ward or Evans.

 

[Sabertooth]

Jeff, do you think guys like Decker, Nelson, and Moore are better options moving forward than vets like Hines, or Lee Evans for example. I know championships are won picking up guys like the aforementioned, but it's hard to gauge at this point who is the real deal and worthy of cutting a low risk/low reward but consistent player WR3 like Ward or Evans.

Tough to say because you have Decker and Moore playing as replacements this week. I think Nelson, at 6'5" is going to be an option every week. He's got 16 catches already on a completely healthy team. He's in the plans.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Decker benefited from Lloyd being out, so he may not put up these points every week. Still, he should be grabbed if available.

I like Nelson (BUF) a bit more because he's putting up great stats while Stevie Johnson is also in the game.

Buffalo looks good, and the real winners here might be Ryan Fitzpatrick owners.

I think Moore will be the least reliable out of the bunch, week to week.

 

[killrobotkill]

Jeff, do you think guys like Decker, Nelson, and Moore are better options moving forward than vets like Hines, or Lee Evans for example. I know championships are won picking up guys like the aforementioned, but it's hard to gauge at this point who is the real deal and worthy of cutting a low risk/low reward but consistent player WR3 like Ward or Evans.

Tough to say because you have Decker and Moore playing as replacements this week. I think Nelson, at 6'5" is going to be an option every week. He's got 16 catches already on a completely healthy team. He's in the plans.

Nelson is definitely in the plans, but after today, so is Moore. I don't see how they can't start this kid alongside Jacoby Ford every week.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Decker benefited from Lloyd being out, so he may not put up these points every week. Still, he should be grabbed if available.I like Nelson (BUF) a bit more because he's putting up great stats while Stevie Johnson is also in the game.Buffalo looks good, and the real winners here might be Ryan Fitzpatrick owners.I think Moore will be the least reliable out of the bunch, week to week.

If Denver doesn't make Decker a starter going forward, there is something horrendously wrong there.

 

[LittlePhatty]

If Denver doesn't make Decker a starter going forward, there is something horrendously wrong there.

A starter for sure, but the question is how will the targets be spread around when Lloyd is on the field too? It remains to be seen.

 

[zilladog]

Well, turned out to be Moore and Decker

I guess that settles that.

 

[cubbie5150]

I have zero faith in the Raiders to give Moore anything but table scraps when/if Ford & DHB are healthy (not to mention Murphy). I'm hoping that Moore gets another start week 3, & somehow finds a way to have another big day against the Jets. Maybe then I'd have a snowball's chance in hell of selling him high (redraft league, of course).

 

[Sabertooth]

Jeff, do you think guys like Decker, Nelson, and Moore are better options moving forward than vets like Hines, or Lee Evans for example. I know championships are won picking up guys like the aforementioned, but it's hard to gauge at this point who is the real deal and worthy of cutting a low risk/low reward but consistent player WR3 like Ward or Evans.

Tough to say because you have Decker and Moore playing as replacements this week. I think Nelson, at 6'5" is going to be an option every week. He's got 16 catches already on a completely healthy team. He's in the plans.

Nelson is definitely in the plans, but after today, so is Moore. I don't see how they can't start this kid alongside Jacoby Ford every week.

This is how.

 

[Sabertooth]

Well, turned out to be Moore and DeckerI guess that settles that.

And Nelson. He had 10 catches for 83 and a touchdown. Not too shabby, especially in PPR.

 

[Lutherman2112]

 

[pack66]

I'd love to pick up Nelson, however I already have Steve Johnson and don't want to put all my eggs in one basket. Having watched the Buffalo game, the offense really did look quite impressive.

Ford was dropped this last week in my PPR league (we start 2 WRs and a WR/TE flex). I'm not completely sold on the Raiders pass game, but I'm considering picking up Ford. Can I assume he's the pick over D.Moore? Then again, Decker and A.Gonzalez (ATL) are also on the WW...and Ryan seemed to look at Gonzo quite a bit as the #2 option in that offense.

One more thing. As a Packers fan, I would hold off on Cobb. He's got talent, but he's raw and I still think Nelson/Jones/Driver are ahead of him. Jennings and Finley are 1A/1B there.

 

[Ping Pong]

Sooo is it Danario Alexander?

 

[Sabertooth]

If I had to rank them right now it would go:

David Nelson - He's the real deal but he seems to have limited upside due to the way he's been used. Could be a PPR monster ala Amendola last season.

Eric Decker - I just think he's going to continue to shine here even when Lloyd returns.

Denarious Moore - He's a good player but is a rookie so you have to worry about consistency. Also this is a team that is built to run and with Campbell at QB, they are going to be scattershot in the passing game. I dropped him for Decker last weekend in a dynasty and have zero regrets.

eta: After further consideration I think Nelson is the guy I'd target over Decker in a coinflip.

 

[oukurt]

Sooo is it Danario Alexander?

He is back on my radar with a bullet.

 

[Cheesedawg]

Bump.

Great thread, Jeff. Don't abandon it to go on to other topics. The answers to this question remain up in the air.

I'm still buying Sanders' stock. Pretty good 2-week production considering he is still healing up.

I like the suggestions that Oak and STL are two places to hunt for breakouts. Not sure that we have final answers either place yet.

I was pretty happy with my Jerome Simpson sleeper until this afternoon. I would think, from a redraft POV, his lawyers will be able to delay court and NFL penalties until next year though. Not sure what Cincy's posture will be.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Bump. Great thread, Jeff. Don't abandon it to go on to other topics. The answers to this question remain up in the air. I'm still buying Sanders' stock. Pretty good 2-week production considering he is still healing up. I like the suggestions that Oak and STL are two places to hunt for breakouts. Not sure that we have final answers either place yet. I was pretty happy with my Jerome Simpson sleeper until this afternoon. I would think, from a redraft POV, his lawyers will be able to delay court and NFL penalties until next year though. Not sure what Cincy's posture will be.

Pretty good little thread. I'll likely pair it with a take on some RBs tomorrow

 

[Ariakis]

I still say Fred Davis may be this year's Lloyd but for WR ... DMoore will likely have a bad week and then all bets are off as more WR's get healthy and more film is out on the kid. Absolutely worth grabbing though.

DNelson is likely going to be a BEAST this week ... probably starting him over Lloyd in one of my leagues and Santonio in another ... I need safe floor with upide and both of my 'studs' have risk.

Where does Branch rank in the discussion?

Titus Young needs an injury to enter the discussion.

Decker strikes me as the least of the group ... solid player but they get DThomas and Royal back eventually and Lloyd will command targets.

Agree on Burleson but agree he's not likely on many ww's since BEFORE the season.

What about Caldwell if Simpson ends up out for a long time? That of course assumes AJ Green doesn't qualify for this discussion.

I smell breakout for Little against Miami this weekend.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Ariakis, funny you just brought up Branch, I just came here to post about him. 19 targets through two games. No TD's yet, but they'll come. Currently WR14 in my league, but if he had a TD or two he'd jump right up there with his catch/yardage numbers.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

After Hernandez getting nicked up, I'd have to say that OchoCinco might be on this list.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

After Hernandez getting nicked up, I'd have to say that OchoCinco might be on this list.

Somebody in my league just dumped him on the waiver wire. I agree and am wondering how much it's going to cost me next week.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I think Torrey Smith brought himself into this discussion rather quickly.

...and the Emmanuel Sanders lovers really need to wake up and smell the coffee. 3rd straight week Brown had more targets (Brown even had 1 more than Wallace). Yesterday:

Brown: 4/75 (8 targets)

Sanders: 2/21 (5 targets)

 

[duaneok66]

watched most of the game - Rotoworld said that Sanders and Brown rotated but I think that when Ward was in (with Wallace) , Antonio Brown was the guy in - hence the greater amount of targets . . .

still , it's hard to use Brown as a starter right now - if he takes over for Ward as WR2 then it's a different story . . .

 

[finito]

After Hernandez getting nicked up, I'd have to say that OchoCinco might be on this list.

Somebody in my league just dumped him on the waiver wire. I agree and am wondering how much it's going to cost me next week.

Not much.

 

[RudeDog]

Nate Washington may be your guy. Looks to fit all your criteria and is quietly performing well after 3 weeks.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Nate Washington may be your guy. Looks to fit all your criteria and is quietly performing well after 3 weeks.

With Britt done for the year - absolutely.Now add Damian Williams to the list.

 

[Gabbo88]

The Nelson's and Nate Washington. If I had to pick one I d go with Nate Washington, David Nelson a close second, Jordy is on the list but he has more competition for targets. The one that resembles the cloest to the Brandon Llyod situation and so far exactly to it would have to be Nate, a guy who was in the league for a few years, his QB Hass just like Orton former teams didn't believe in them, they got rid of them and are balling. Last year Llyod was the undisputed no.1 WR on his team, Daivd Nelson has Steve Johnson to contend with but the Ryan Fitzpatrick story is similar to Orton's and Hasselback's.

 

[thehornet]

clearly nate washington.

 

[Ariakis]

Burleson may be a buy low but has me a bit worried. They did put their best DB on him a lot I heard.

Branch ... ungood.

Not sure I'm buying Victor Cruz as more than bench depth.

Nate Washington ... would face the other team's top CB. See Mike Thomas.

Torrey Smith smells flukish like Alexander's game in week 2. Worth grabbing but I don't see a breakout.

DMoore remains the best bet but so far no obvious break out but Jacoby Ford is back which could change things as this is a run first team.

 

[thehornet]

denarius moore? 4 for 34 this week and thery scored 34 points? no thanks. the rushing td is a fluke.

 

[Ariakis]

He doesn't face Revis again and one of the other stud CB's is on his own team. Once they get Ford back the question is whether they cancel each other out or make this offense capable of supporting starting fantasy calibre WR's. Best chance ... but so far as I said I don't see a Lloyd ... just chances.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Burleson may be a buy low but has me a bit worried. They did put their best DB on him a lot I heard.

That makes me feel better about his lackluster game this week then. Only thing worried about me is Pettigrew and Titus Young stepping up. Everyone knew Megatron was going to get his, but if Burleson is the 4th option on the team he will be too hit or miss to be worthwhile. This was the first game where that was the case though, and if MIN put their best DB on him (Winfield? Griffin?) that makes me feel a little better. I wont start to worry unless Pettigrew and Young continue to outproduce Burleson the next couple of weeks.

 

[NYRAGE]

He doesn't face Revis again and one of the other stud CB's is on his own team. Once they get Ford back the question is whether they cancel each other out or make this offense capable of supporting starting fantasy calibre WR's. Best chance ... but so far as I said I don't see a Lloyd ... just chances.

I honestly didn't pay attn in the second half, but Cromartie lined up against Moore most of the first half.

 

[nysportsfan]

denarius moore? 4 for 34 this week and thery scored 34 points? no thanks. the rushing td is a fluke.

This baffles me. The guy pit up a good game when he team was simply pounding the rock. What more do you want? He went against some good corners, too, and still was targeted early and often. Sure the TD is a bit of luck, but the play call indicates they want to get this guy involved...a lot. And Jackson is singing his praises and so far has backed it up by playing this kid.