Hype around Santonio Holmes starting to get loud (1 Viewer)

[Righetti]

Just give Santonio Holmes the darned ball.

With each catch and every big play, Holmes becomes more entrenched as the Steelers' playmaker at wide receiver.

Picking up where he left off from his rookie season, Holmes has the magic touch.

Dating back to the Cleveland Browns game last December, when he made his first NFL start, Holmes has become the Steelers' hottest offensive player.

In that game against the Browns, Holmes led the Steelers with four receptions for 81 yards, with a long gain of 25 yards.

The following week against Carolina, he returned a punt 65 yards for a touchdown. Against Baltimore, he had five receptions for 90 yards, with a long gain of 31 yards. And in the season finale against Cincinnati, he had four catches for 124 yards, including the game-winning 67-yard touchdown in overtime.

Against New Orleans, in this year's exhibition opener, Holmes caught a 41-yard pass and then made a 3-yard touchdown grab on a beautiful fade route. Last week, against Green Bay, he made a gorgeous 49-yard catch.

Holmes' hot streak continued Saturday night in the Steelers' 12-10 exhibition win against the Washington Redskins. He caught two passes for 51 yards.

His 29-yard catch-and-run on third-and-17 in the second quarter helped set up the Steelers' first score. His 22-yard catch on the first play of the same drive was the Steelers' second-longest offensive play in the first half, when both teams' starters were on the field.

"I really just don't believe that anybody on any other team that we play can stop me," Holmes said after the game. "The more plays I make on the field makes me believe that even more."

Returning to the starting lineup against Washington after missing the early part of training camp because of a non-football related surgical procedure has spiked his confidence -- to the point where he doesn't mind talking frankly about his development.

"The more opportunities you get, the more you play, the more confidence you gain in yourself and the more confidence you gain from your teammates," Holmes said.

Hines Ward may be the people's choice, but Holmes is the Steelers' salvation at receiver.

Moving Ward around, including to the slot, makes the Steelers' all-time receptions leader more difficult to defend. But it's also a concession to Father Time for Ward, 31.

This is Holmes' time.

"He's capable of that. That has to be our personality," coach Mike Tomlin said of Holmes' playmaking ability. "We don't make any bones about that. We've got to win by attrition, but we've also got to be a quick-strike offense."

Just give Holmes the darned ball

Pittsburgh Tribune Review

 

[packersfan]

He's good.

 

[nygiants56]

I think he was 2-51 this weekend, and had 1-49 or something similar last weekend...ya get the feeling, he's going to lead the NFL in TD-yards, i.e., he's going to score more long TD's than any other WR, imo..

he's going to score a handful of them over 30 yards, I'd bet..

 

[massraider]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

 

[Cowboys#1]

take a look at Berrian last year.. thats him this year.

 

[3nOut]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

i agree.

 

[faulkfan]

take a look at Berrian last year.. thats him this year.

But with a decent QB throwing him the ball.

 

[switz]

take a look at Berrian last year.. thats him this year.

But with a decent QB throwing him the ball.

Except Holmes is far more polished than Berrian. (FYI I have both on my team, so it's not a biased statement)

 

[ooofffaaa]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

i agree.

I don't.Hines Ward will still be the leading receiver on the team, and the leading fantasy producer from the WR position.

 

[Gordo]

Hopefully my SOD!

 

[Sleeper 43]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

Fo Sho !

 

[SmoovySmoov]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

i agree.

I don't.Hines Ward will still be the leading receiver on the team, and the leading fantasy producer from the WR position.

 

[massraider]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

i agree.

I don't.Hines Ward will still be the leading receiver on the team, and the leading fantasy producer from the WR position.

I think he meant from the Steelers.

 

[stevegamer]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

i agree.

I don't.Hines Ward will still be the leading receiver on the team, and the leading fantasy producer from the WR position.

I think he means on the Steelers, and that wouldn't surprise me a bit. ward will be more valuable in the NFL sense - blocking, etc counts, but I'd expect Ward to catch more balls for slightly more yards, but score less TD's, particularly long ones.

 

[Koya]

With WRs, people too often play the zero sum game.

This is not about whether or not Holmes "passes" Ward. What matters is how much each will produce and where you should target them in a draft.

If Holmes outproduces Ward, it is still possible (and, as I will discuss in a minute, perhaps probable) that Wards production is IMPROVED from years past.

More important in this specific case is the fact that Ward produced so well when he had another truly viable option lining up at WR in Burress. Burress was always going to be the #1 guy yet Ward always seemed to end up with nearly as good if not better numbers.

My point is that regardless who ends up doing BETTER, Holmes being a big producer will only help Ward imo. The offense will move. Double teams would split time or if Holmes "passes" Ward, veer away from him altogether. More scoring, less focus from the defense = better Ward than last year or two imo.

With that said, Holmes could do even better.

 

[SmoovySmoov]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

i agree.

I don't.Hines Ward will still be the leading receiver on the team, and the leading fantasy producer from the WR position.

I think he means on the Steelers, and that wouldn't surprise me a bit. ward will be more valuable in the NFL sense - blocking, etc counts, but I'd expect Ward to catch more balls for slightly more yards, but score less TD's, particularly long ones.

Okay. Gotcha. Thought he meant in the NFL, and I almost choked on my drink.

 

[Jason Wood]

Holmes may improve on last year's numbers are is often the case with 2nd year players that get starting jobs. But as I mentioned in the Player Spotlight for him, there is some flawed logic floating out there that somehow the changeover to Bruce Arians and Mike Tomlin is going to bring about a renaissance of the passing game. The Steelers passing renaissance happened LAST YEAR when the team threw for over 4,000 yards. If anyone thinks the Steelers plan on throwing more this year, I think they're in for a rude awakening. That said, Holmes could certainly take a bigger chunk of that yardage and TD output, his productivity was good (not great) last year for sure.

 

[Gr00vus]

That said, Holmes could certainly take a bigger chunk of that yardage and TD output, his productivity was good (not great) last year for sure.

I think that's what most of those thinking positive thoughts about Holmes are focusing on. I know that's how I'm looking at it anyway - a step up from good to very good, which would make him quite valuable at his current ADP.

 

[Godsbrother]

Holmes looked really good down the stretch and has looked great in preseason but Hines Ward is still a very good receiver. I think Ward is going to lead the team in receptions but Holmes will lead the team in yardage. TDs are tough to predict -- Holmes has more chance of the long TD but Ward is money in the redzone.

If the Steelers utilize TE Heath Miller more and get FWP involved in the passing game they could be scary-good. Of course it all depends on the o-line's ability to protect Big Ben.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

From my write-up in the Santonio Holmes faceoff (upside)

Holmes had 49 recs for 824 yds in 2006. Four WRs in the modern NFL era had 50-60 receptions with 15.0-17.0 YPR in their rookie year. They were Roy Williams in 2004, Torry Holt in 1999, Frank Sanders in 1995 and Andre Rison in 1989. The average change in fantasy points the year after (N+1) is +37.2. Roy Williams decreased 13 pts, Torry Holt increased 83 points, Frank Sanders increased 5 points and Andre Rison increased 74 points. History says Santonio Holmes, who had 96 FP in 2006 will have 133.2 FP in 2007, which would be a ranking of WR24. That's pretty good company as far as WRs go.

 

[Irish]

Holmes may improve on last year's numbers are is often the case with 2nd year players that get starting jobs. But as I mentioned in the Player Spotlight for him, there is some flawed logic floating out there that somehow the changeover to Bruce Arians and Mike Tomlin is going to bring about a renaissance of the passing game. The Steelers passing renaissance happened LAST YEAR when the team threw for over 4,000 yards. If anyone thinks the Steelers plan on throwing more this year, I think they're in for a rude awakening. That said, Holmes could certainly take a bigger chunk of that yardage and TD output, his productivity was good (not great) last year for sure.

I think that it was great production out of guy who only started 4 games.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

From my write-up in the Santonio Holmes faceoff (upside)Holmes had 49 recs for 824 yds in 2006. Four WRs in the modern NFL era had 50-60 receptions with 15.0-17.0 YPR in their rookie year. They were Roy Williams in 2004, Torry Holt in 1999, Frank Sanders in 1995 and Andre Rison in 1989. The average change in fantasy points the year after (N+1) is +37.2. Roy Williams decreased 13 pts, Torry Holt increased 83 points, Frank Sanders increased 5 points and Andre Rison increased 74 points. History says Santonio Holmes, who had 96 FP in 2006 will have 133.2 FP in 2007, which would be a ranking of WR24. That's pretty good company as far as WRs go.

Small sample. And since we're being pretty technical to begin with, he doesn't fit into the 50 reception club. I mean, you could just as well say that 50% of that bracket either decreased in production their 2nd year; or remained the same. It's like finding stats to fit your opinion.

 

[Tau837]

From my write-up in the Santonio Holmes faceoff (upside)Holmes had 49 recs for 824 yds in 2006. Four WRs in the modern NFL era had 50-60 receptions with 15.0-17.0 YPR in their rookie year. They were Roy Williams in 2004, Torry Holt in 1999, Frank Sanders in 1995 and Andre Rison in 1989. The average change in fantasy points the year after (N+1) is +37.2. Roy Williams decreased 13 pts, Torry Holt increased 83 points, Frank Sanders increased 5 points and Andre Rison increased 74 points. History says Santonio Holmes, who had 96 FP in 2006 will have 133.2 FP in 2007, which would be a ranking of WR24. That's pretty good company as far as WRs go.

The criteria you chose seems strange... Holmes had 49 catches but you looked at guys with 50-60... Holmes averaged 16.8 ypr but you looked at guys who were between 15.0 and 17.0. I might have chosen to look at all rookies with 40+ catches and 15.0 or better ypr, for example. Now, maybe this would yield the same sample set, I don't know.Aside from that, a sample set of 4 is obviously too low to have real predictive value. 2 of them don't project him to gain, anyway, leaving only 2 positive examples... and Rison changed teams after his rookie season, which makes him an apples and oranges comparison.So we're left with this: Torry Holt, a possible HOFer, got a lot better after his rookie season.

 

[Tau837]

From my write-up in the Santonio Holmes faceoff (upside)Holmes had 49 recs for 824 yds in 2006. Four WRs in the modern NFL era had 50-60 receptions with 15.0-17.0 YPR in their rookie year. They were Roy Williams in 2004, Torry Holt in 1999, Frank Sanders in 1995 and Andre Rison in 1989. The average change in fantasy points the year after (N+1) is +37.2. Roy Williams decreased 13 pts, Torry Holt increased 83 points, Frank Sanders increased 5 points and Andre Rison increased 74 points. History says Santonio Holmes, who had 96 FP in 2006 will have 133.2 FP in 2007, which would be a ranking of WR24. That's pretty good company as far as WRs go.

Small sample. And since we're being pretty technical to begin with, he doesn't fit into the 50 reception club. I mean, you could just as well say that 50% of that bracket either decreased in production their 2nd year; or remained the same. It's like finding stats to fit your opinion.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

From my write-up in the Santonio Holmes faceoff (upside)Holmes had 49 recs for 824 yds in 2006. Four WRs in the modern NFL era had 50-60 receptions with 15.0-17.0 YPR in their rookie year. They were Roy Williams in 2004, Torry Holt in 1999, Frank Sanders in 1995 and Andre Rison in 1989. The average change in fantasy points the year after (N+1) is +37.2. Roy Williams decreased 13 pts, Torry Holt increased 83 points, Frank Sanders increased 5 points and Andre Rison increased 74 points. History says Santonio Holmes, who had 96 FP in 2006 will have 133.2 FP in 2007, which would be a ranking of WR24. That's pretty good company as far as WRs go.

Small sample. And since we're being pretty technical to begin with, he doesn't fit into the 50 reception club. I mean, you could just as well say that 50% of that bracket either decreased in production their 2nd year; or remained the same. It's like finding stats to fit your opinion.

The glass is half full though, half full. I'm just saying that Holmes fits the mold of other WRs that I mentioned above, which is not too shabby. The stats say that, not my opinion.

 

[WarRedbirds]

I hate hype...

 

[jurb26]

I hate hype...

Then you're at the wrong place.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

From my write-up in the Santonio Holmes faceoff (upside)

Holmes had 49 recs for 824 yds in 2006. Four WRs in the modern NFL era had 50-60 receptions with 15.0-17.0 YPR in their rookie year. They were Roy Williams in 2004, Torry Holt in 1999, Frank Sanders in 1995 and Andre Rison in 1989. The average change in fantasy points the year after (N+1) is +37.2. Roy Williams decreased 13 pts, Torry Holt increased 83 points, Frank Sanders increased 5 points and Andre Rison increased 74 points. History says Santonio Holmes, who had 96 FP in 2006 will have 133.2 FP in 2007, which would be a ranking of WR24. That's pretty good company as far as WRs go.

Small sample. And since we're being pretty technical to begin with, he doesn't fit into the 50 reception club. I mean, you could just as well say that 50% of that bracket either decreased in production their 2nd year; or remained the same. It's like finding stats to fit your opinion.

The glass is half full though, half full. I'm just saying that Holmes fits the mold of other WRs that I mentioned above, which is not too shabby. The stats say that, not my opinion.

But some of the same stats DON'T say that; actually quite the opposite, if so desired. Just depends on what you want to see. Which is my point really, selective statistics, and small samples to boot, are just ways to bolster people's already formed opinions.

 

[ThePittbully]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

Im buying this, and about the Berrian comment, I think he's the better receiver of the two but I see the comparison.Im thinking of trading D.J. Hackett for him in my dynasty league, I really think he has alot of upside

 

[-OZ-]

With WRs, people too often play the zero sum game.This is not about whether or not Holmes "passes" Ward. What matters is how much each will produce and where you should target them in a draft. If Holmes outproduces Ward, it is still possible (and, as I will discuss in a minute, perhaps probable) that Wards production is IMPROVED from years past.More important in this specific case is the fact that Ward produced so well when he had another truly viable option lining up at WR in Burress. Burress was always going to be the #1 guy yet Ward always seemed to end up with nearly as good if not better numbers.My point is that regardless who ends up doing BETTER, Holmes being a big producer will only help Ward imo. The offense will move. Double teams would split time or if Holmes "passes" Ward, veer away from him altogether. More scoring, less focus from the defense = better Ward than last year or two imo.With that said, Holmes could do even better.

Good post.Holmes will stretch the field, allowing Ward to get more receptions although it could be for less total yards. These two are great complimentary WRs. The young, speedy guy stretching the field while the "old man" takes the short-intermediate stuff and doesn't mind going over the middle. Both could get over 1,000 yards this year, Ward should get more receptions, but for those of you in leagues awarding long TDs, Holmes will be valuable.He's one of the players I've wanted to get in my dynasty leagues, but so far haven't been able to. I doubt he'd be affordable now. I did get him in a redraft a week ago, so that made me smile.

 

[The Ref]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

I'm willing to accept that Holmes could have a better statistical year. I also think it's plausible that at both of the current ADP's, Holmes is the better value. However, I'm not willing to consider that Holmes is as good an overall football player then Ward. Ward does everything that is asked of a WR, is a team leader, and is one of if not *the* best blocking WR in the NFL.Holmes will have a better year then last year, I think that's obvious. But lets not dismiss the cagey veteran.

 

[Razor007]

Passes Ward this year, IMO.

Im buying this, and about the Berrian comment, I think he's the better receiver of the two but I see the comparison.Im thinking of trading D.J. Hackett for him in my dynasty league, I really think he has alot of upside

So am I , someone took Holmes before me and I took Hackett but I really wanted Holmes, I wonder if Hackett for Holmes would be doable?

 

[Jason Wood]

Holmes may improve on last year's numbers are is often the case with 2nd year players that get starting jobs. But as I mentioned in the Player Spotlight for him, there is some flawed logic floating out there that somehow the changeover to Bruce Arians and Mike Tomlin is going to bring about a renaissance of the passing game. The Steelers passing renaissance happened LAST YEAR when the team threw for over 4,000 yards. If anyone thinks the Steelers plan on throwing more this year, I think they're in for a rude awakening. That said, Holmes could certainly take a bigger chunk of that yardage and TD output, his productivity was good (not great) last year for sure.

I think that it was great production out of guy who only started 4 games.

In those four games as a starter he caught one touchdown and converted 16 out of 29 targets (55%)...those are good, not great numbers in my book.

 

[EBF]

Ward isn't going anywhere. He's still a very good receiver and he'll get a healthy cut of the team's passing yards.

That said, Holmes certainly has a chance to emerge as a Houshmandzadeh/Wayne type. He was one of the players named on my dynasty buy list. I think he's this year's version of last year's Mark Clayton. His value will go up over the next 1-2 years. I would definitely take him over the likes of Marshall, Hackett, Jennings, and V. Jackson.

 

[Jason Wood]

Ward isn't going anywhere. He's still a very good receiver and he'll get a healthy cut of the team's passing yards. That said, Holmes certainly has a chance to emerge as a Houshmandzadeh/Wayne type. He was one of the players named on my dynasty buy list. I think he's this year's version of last year's Mark Clayton. His value will go up over the next 1-2 years. I would definitely take him over the likes of Marshall, Hackett, Jennings, and V. Jackson.

Brandon Marshall doesn't belong in this tier at this juncture, he's done nothing this camp to give any fuel to preseason hype we all bought into. Hackett has also not secured a starting spot for sure, although he's at least shown glimpses. Jennings, on the other hand, looked fantastic last year before getting hurt and is the clear WR2 on a team that's going to throw early and often. I would definitely draft Vincent Jackson over Holmes, Jackson is the WR1 in San Diego, and I would consider drafting Jennings ahead of him, too.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Ward isn't going anywhere. He's still a very good receiver and he'll get a healthy cut of the team's passing yards.

That said, Holmes certainly has a chance to emerge as a Houshmandzadeh/Wayne type. He was one of the players named on my dynasty buy list. I think he's this year's version of last year's Mark Clayton. His value will go up over the next 1-2 years. I would definitely take him over the likes of Marshall, Hackett, Jennings, and V. Jackson.

Brandon Marshall doesn't belong in this tier at this juncture, he's done nothing this camp to give any fuel to preseason hype we all bought into. Hackett has also not secured a starting spot for sure, although he's at least shown glimpses. Jennings, on the other hand, looked fantastic last year before getting hurt and is the clear WR2 on a team that's going to throw early and often. I would definitely draft Vincent Jackson over Holmes, Jackson is the WR1 in San Diego, and I would consider drafting Jennings ahead of him, too.

Jackson may be the #1 WR on his team, but he, like Holmes, will be the numer 2 pass catcher. I also believe Holmes to be a more talented WR on a team that will pass more than the Chargers.

 

[PahtyTom]

Ward isn't going anywhere. He's still a very good receiver and he'll get a healthy cut of the team's passing yards. That said, Holmes certainly has a chance to emerge as a Houshmandzadeh/Wayne type. He was one of the players named on my dynasty buy list. I think he's this year's version of last year's Mark Clayton. His value will go up over the next 1-2 years. I would definitely take him over the likes of Marshall, Hackett, Jennings, and V. Jackson.

I would definitely draft Vincent Jackson over Holmes, Jackson is the WR1 in San Diego, and I would consider drafting Jennings ahead of him, too.

 

[rdstorm]

From my write-up in the Santonio Holmes faceoff (upside)Holmes had 49 recs for 824 yds in 2006. Four WRs in the modern NFL era had 50-60 receptions with 15.0-17.0 YPR in their rookie year. They were Roy Williams in 2004, Torry Holt in 1999, Frank Sanders in 1995 and Andre Rison in 1989. The average change in fantasy points the year after (N+1) is +37.2. Roy Williams decreased 13 pts, Torry Holt increased 83 points, Frank Sanders increased 5 points and Andre Rison increased 74 points. History says Santonio Holmes, who had 96 FP in 2006 will have 133.2 FP in 2007, which would be a ranking of WR24. That's pretty good company as far as WRs go.

Your predictive logic is a bit flawed here. History says that he will actually experience *either* a gain of roughly 78 points or have a season that is very similar to last year. Given that choice, I'd say the probability favors him scoring close to 174 this year.

 

[Jason Wood]

Ward isn't going anywhere. He's still a very good receiver and he'll get a healthy cut of the team's passing yards. That said, Holmes certainly has a chance to emerge as a Houshmandzadeh/Wayne type. He was one of the players named on my dynasty buy list. I think he's this year's version of last year's Mark Clayton. His value will go up over the next 1-2 years. I would definitely take him over the likes of Marshall, Hackett, Jennings, and V. Jackson.

I would definitely draft Vincent Jackson over Holmes, Jackson is the WR1 in San Diego, and I would consider drafting Jennings ahead of him, too.

I'm going to assume the LOCO smiley means you disagree with my assertion. While I respect your right to disagree with me, I hope you realize that my statements are hardly controversial. Vincent Jackson is being drafted, on average, WR30, which is higher than Holmes (WR34). Meanwhile Greg Jennings is going a pick after Holmes at WR35. They're fairly closely bunched, and Jackson has been going ahead of the other two in a majority of leagues.Among the FBG staff...Holmes has the highest consensus rating (WR31), Jennings is currently ranked 34th and Jackson is currently ranked 37th.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Ward isn't going anywhere. He's still a very good receiver and he'll get a healthy cut of the team's passing yards. That said, Holmes certainly has a chance to emerge as a Houshmandzadeh/Wayne type. He was one of the players named on my dynasty buy list. I think he's this year's version of last year's Mark Clayton. His value will go up over the next 1-2 years. I would definitely take him over the likes of Marshall, Hackett, Jennings, and V. Jackson.

I would definitely draft Vincent Jackson over Holmes, Jackson is the WR1 in San Diego, and I would consider drafting Jennings ahead of him, too.

I'm going to assume the LOCO smiley means you disagree with my assertion. While I respect your right to disagree with me, I hope you realize that my statements are hardly controversial. Vincent Jackson is being drafted, on average, WR30, which is higher than Holmes (WR34). Meanwhile Greg Jennings is going a pick after Holmes at WR35. They're fairly closely bunched, and Jackson has been going ahead of the other two in a majority of leagues.Among the FBG staff...Holmes has the highest consensus rating (WR31), Jennings is currently ranked 34th and Jackson is currently ranked 37th.

While i dont think you are crazy for having Jackson over Holmes, i do think there is a considerable gap between the two. What is it about Jackson you like over Holmes?

 

[Jason Wood]

Ward isn't going anywhere. He's still a very good receiver and he'll get a healthy cut of the team's passing yards. That said, Holmes certainly has a chance to emerge as a Houshmandzadeh/Wayne type. He was one of the players named on my dynasty buy list. I think he's this year's version of last year's Mark Clayton. His value will go up over the next 1-2 years. I would definitely take him over the likes of Marshall, Hackett, Jennings, and V. Jackson.

I would definitely draft Vincent Jackson over Holmes, Jackson is the WR1 in San Diego, and I would consider drafting Jennings ahead of him, too.

I'm going to assume the LOCO smiley means you disagree with my assertion. While I respect your right to disagree with me, I hope you realize that my statements are hardly controversial. Vincent Jackson is being drafted, on average, WR30, which is higher than Holmes (WR34). Meanwhile Greg Jennings is going a pick after Holmes at WR35. They're fairly closely bunched, and Jackson has been going ahead of the other two in a majority of leagues.Among the FBG staff...Holmes has the highest consensus rating (WR31), Jennings is currently ranked 34th and Jackson is currently ranked 37th.

While i dont think you are crazy for having Jackson over Holmes, i do think there is a considerable gap between the two. What is it about Jackson you like over Holmes?

Opportunity (a clear WR1 versus a clear WR2). Both are high risk/high reward pickups this year. Jackson is (obviously) the much bigger guy with a real chance to be the top WR on his team, whereas Holmes has the better pedigree and doesn't have to contend with an all-world TE or RB catching passes that would otherwise go to the WR corps.As I said, I have them very close to one another, and another 10 days of preseason could change how I rank them against each other.

 

[Righetti]

Wood,

Jackson might be a WR1 but he is going to be the third option on most passing plays behind Gates and LT2.

Santonio Holmes might very well be the #1 receiving option in Pittsburgh

 

[Jason Wood]

Wood,

Jackson might be a WR1 but he is going to be the third option on most passing plays behind Gates and LT2.

Santonio Holmes might very well be the #1 receiving option in Pittsburgh

I couldn't disagree more re: Holmes, unless Hines Ward is planning on pulling a Tarik Glenn and retiring unbeknownst to anyone, Holmes will be the 2nd option at best in most weeks. Again, I'm no champion of Vincent Jackson either...I think both are decent fantasy backups with solid upside.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Ward isn't going anywhere. He's still a very good receiver and he'll get a healthy cut of the team's passing yards. That said, Holmes certainly has a chance to emerge as a Houshmandzadeh/Wayne type. He was one of the players named on my dynasty buy list. I think he's this year's version of last year's Mark Clayton. His value will go up over the next 1-2 years. I would definitely take him over the likes of Marshall, Hackett, Jennings, and V. Jackson.

I would definitely draft Vincent Jackson over Holmes, Jackson is the WR1 in San Diego, and I would consider drafting Jennings ahead of him, too.

I'm going to assume the LOCO smiley means you disagree with my assertion. While I respect your right to disagree with me, I hope you realize that my statements are hardly controversial. Vincent Jackson is being drafted, on average, WR30, which is higher than Holmes (WR34). Meanwhile Greg Jennings is going a pick after Holmes at WR35. They're fairly closely bunched, and Jackson has been going ahead of the other two in a majority of leagues.Among the FBG staff...Holmes has the highest consensus rating (WR31), Jennings is currently ranked 34th and Jackson is currently ranked 37th.

While i dont think you are crazy for having Jackson over Holmes, i do think there is a considerable gap between the two. What is it about Jackson you like over Holmes?

Opportunity (a clear WR1 versus a clear WR2). Both are high risk/high reward pickups this year. Jackson is (obviously) the much bigger guy with a real chance to be the top WR on his team, whereas Holmes has the better pedigree and doesn't have to contend with an all-world TE or RB catching passes that would otherwise go to the WR corps.As I said, I have them very close to one another, and another 10 days of preseason could change how I rank them against each other.

While Ward is a workhorse by real NFL standards, I don't think Ward or the team has encountered a better co-WR before than Holmes. Holmes brings the legitimate deep threat to the Steelers. I wasnt even big on Holmes last year but you have to respect his trend. The pre-season has shown he seems to be continuing where he left off. Up to this point Santonio has proven more than V-Jax and this is coming from someone who sought out V-Jax in all of last years rookie drafts. I think V-Jax will make an excellent compliment/red-zone target/possession WR type but he doesnt have the skills to be a gamebreaker like Holmes.Just my

 

[BigRed]

I hate hype...

Then you're at the wrong place.

lolI think he may improve a bit, but just a bit - unless he really does blow by Ward somehow. I just don't see Big Ben being good enough to crank out enough TDs that both of these guys have or threaten double-digit TDs, and at most both will eke out 1000 yds, but IMO much more likely one will and one will not, for whatever reason. As for Holmes vs Jackson, people seem to forget that FWP and Miller aren't exactly the same thing at RB and TE of course, but will catch their share of balls as well. In fact I expect more for Miller this year - maybe significantly more.

 

[Steelers4Life]

Wood,

Jackson might be a WR1 but he is going to be the third option on most passing plays behind Gates and LT2.

Santonio Holmes might very well be the #1 receiving option in Pittsburgh

I couldn't disagree more re: Holmes, unless Hines Ward is planning on pulling a Tarik Glenn and retiring unbeknownst to anyone, Holmes will be the 2nd option at best in most weeks. Again, I'm no champion of Vincent Jackson either...I think both are decent fantasy backups with solid upside.

I won't be shocked at all if Holmes ends up with more receiving yards and a similar number of catches as Ward this year. How the receivers will be used in the red zone is anyone's guess, but Holmes' big play ability is going to be utilized more than it was at any point last year. Arians wants to go deep at least 5 times per game, and I expect Holmes to be the target more often than not. If I were a betting man, I'd expect Ward to end up with more catches, Holmes to end up with more yards, and the TDs to be pretty close. The Steelers were 15th in the NFL in passing attempts last year and I don't really see that number changing much. I can see if actually going up, but not by much. The difference this year will be WHEN they pass, not necessarily how often. The offense has been very predictable on 1st and 2nd downs in the past few years, but I do expect the new offense to use far more multiple WR/TE sets on early downs instead of almost strictly on passing downs. It's going to make for a much more efficient, explosive, and unpredictable passing offense.

 

[Righetti]

Holmes split went this way last year

first 8 games

22/325/2

last 8 games

27/501/2

I think he will need more catches than the 3.3 he averaged over the last

8 games but if you take the 8 games and expand them over a season you

he was on pace to produce 55/1000/4..

I'm going to say that he outproduces that a bit

65/1050/6

which will be very nice numbers for a 2nd year receiver

 

[-OZ-]

Ward isn't going anywhere. He's still a very good receiver and he'll get a healthy cut of the team's passing yards.

That said, Holmes certainly has a chance to emerge as a Houshmandzadeh/Wayne type. He was one of the players named on my dynasty buy list. I think he's this year's version of last year's Mark Clayton. His value will go up over the next 1-2 years. I would definitely take him over the likes of Marshall, Hackett, Jennings, and V. Jackson.

I would definitely draft Vincent Jackson over Holmes, Jackson is the WR1 in San Diego, and I would consider drafting Jennings ahead of him, too.

I'm going to assume the LOCO smiley means you disagree with my assertion. While I respect your right to disagree with me, I hope you realize that my statements are hardly controversial. Vincent Jackson is being drafted, on average, WR30, which is higher than Holmes (WR34). Meanwhile Greg Jennings is going a pick after Holmes at WR35. They're fairly closely bunched, and Jackson has been going ahead of the other two in a majority of leagues.Among the FBG staff...Holmes has the highest consensus rating (WR31), Jennings is currently ranked 34th and Jackson is currently ranked 37th.

While i dont think you are crazy for having Jackson over Holmes, i do think there is a considerable gap between the two. What is it about Jackson you like over Holmes?

Opportunity (a clear WR1 versus a clear WR2). Both are high risk/high reward pickups this year. Jackson is (obviously) the much bigger guy with a real chance to be the top WR on his team, whereas Holmes has the better pedigree and doesn't have to contend with an all-world TE or RB catching passes that would otherwise go to the WR corps.As I said, I have them very close to one another, and another 10 days of preseason could change how I rank them against each other.

While Ward is a workhorse by real NFL standards, I don't think Ward or the team has encountered a better co-WR before than Holmes. Holmes brings the legitimate deep threat to the Steelers. I wasnt even big on Holmes last year but you have to respect his trend. The pre-season has shown he seems to be continuing where he left off. Up to this point Santonio has proven more than V-Jax and this is coming from someone who sought out V-Jax in all of last years rookie drafts. I think V-Jax will make an excellent compliment/red-zone target/possession WR type but he doesnt have the skills to be a gamebreaker like Holmes.Just my

Holmes might be great, but I wouldn't put him above Plaxico just yet.

 

[CalBear]

From my write-up in the Santonio Holmes faceoff (upside)Holmes had 49 recs for 824 yds in 2006. Four WRs in the modern NFL era had 50-60 receptions with 15.0-17.0 YPR in their rookie year. They were Roy Williams in 2004, Torry Holt in 1999, Frank Sanders in 1995 and Andre Rison in 1989. The average change in fantasy points the year after (N+1) is +37.2. Roy Williams decreased 13 pts, Torry Holt increased 83 points, Frank Sanders increased 5 points and Andre Rison increased 74 points. History says Santonio Holmes, who had 96 FP in 2006 will have 133.2 FP in 2007, which would be a ranking of WR24. That's pretty good company as far as WRs go.

Small sample. And since we're being pretty technical to begin with, he doesn't fit into the 50 reception club. I mean, you could just as well say that 50% of that bracket either decreased in production their 2nd year; or remained the same. It's like finding stats to fit your opinion.

The glass is half full though, half full. I'm just saying that Holmes fits the mold of other WRs that I mentioned above, which is not too shabby. The stats say that, not my opinion.

Let's look at a more relevant sample; WRs with 40-49 receptions, with more than 15 ypr in their rookie years in the last 10 years:

1	Chris Chambers	wr	2001  48	883	18.40	7	129.202	Lee Evans	wr	2004  48	843	17.56	9	146.803	Santonio Holmes	wr	2006	49	824	16.82	2	95.704	Antonio Bryant	wr	2002	44	733	16.66	6	113.305	Jeremy McDaniel	wr	2000	43	697	16.21	2	81.706	Rod Gardner	wr	2001	46	741	16.11	4	99.707	Keary Colbert	wr	2004	47	754	16.04	5	105.40

All 6 of the other WRs in this sample declined in year 2.If you want stats to say something, choose a relevant population and look for more data points.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Ward isn't going anywhere. He's still a very good receiver and he'll get a healthy cut of the team's passing yards.

That said, Holmes certainly has a chance to emerge as a Houshmandzadeh/Wayne type. He was one of the players named on my dynasty buy list. I think he's this year's version of last year's Mark Clayton. His value will go up over the next 1-2 years. I would definitely take him over the likes of Marshall, Hackett, Jennings, and V. Jackson.

I would definitely draft Vincent Jackson over Holmes, Jackson is the WR1 in San Diego, and I would consider drafting Jennings ahead of him, too.

I'm going to assume the LOCO smiley means you disagree with my assertion. While I respect your right to disagree with me, I hope you realize that my statements are hardly controversial. Vincent Jackson is being drafted, on average, WR30, which is higher than Holmes (WR34). Meanwhile Greg Jennings is going a pick after Holmes at WR35. They're fairly closely bunched, and Jackson has been going ahead of the other two in a majority of leagues.Among the FBG staff...Holmes has the highest consensus rating (WR31), Jennings is currently ranked 34th and Jackson is currently ranked 37th.

While i dont think you are crazy for having Jackson over Holmes, i do think there is a considerable gap between the two. What is it about Jackson you like over Holmes?

Opportunity (a clear WR1 versus a clear WR2). Both are high risk/high reward pickups this year. Jackson is (obviously) the much bigger guy with a real chance to be the top WR on his team, whereas Holmes has the better pedigree and doesn't have to contend with an all-world TE or RB catching passes that would otherwise go to the WR corps.As I said, I have them very close to one another, and another 10 days of preseason could change how I rank them against each other.

While Ward is a workhorse by real NFL standards, I don't think Ward or the team has encountered a better co-WR before than Holmes. Holmes brings the legitimate deep threat to the Steelers. I wasnt even big on Holmes last year but you have to respect his trend. The pre-season has shown he seems to be continuing where he left off. Up to this point Santonio has proven more than V-Jax and this is coming from someone who sought out V-Jax in all of last years rookie drafts. I think V-Jax will make an excellent compliment/red-zone target/possession WR type but he doesnt have the skills to be a gamebreaker like Holmes.Just my

Holmes might be great, but I wouldn't put him above Plaxico just yet.

Plax now or Plax then?