Hype around Santonio Holmes starting to get loud (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

From my write-up in the Santonio Holmes faceoff (upside)Holmes had 49 recs for 824 yds in 2006. Four WRs in the modern NFL era had 50-60 receptions with 15.0-17.0 YPR in their rookie year. They were Roy Williams in 2004, Torry Holt in 1999, Frank Sanders in 1995 and Andre Rison in 1989. The average change in fantasy points the year after (N+1) is +37.2. Roy Williams decreased 13 pts, Torry Holt increased 83 points, Frank Sanders increased 5 points and Andre Rison increased 74 points. History says Santonio Holmes, who had 96 FP in 2006 will have 133.2 FP in 2007, which would be a ranking of WR24. That's pretty good company as far as WRs go.

Small sample. And since we're being pretty technical to begin with, he doesn't fit into the 50 reception club. I mean, you could just as well say that 50% of that bracket either decreased in production their 2nd year; or remained the same. It's like finding stats to fit your opinion.

The glass is half full though, half full. I'm just saying that Holmes fits the mold of other WRs that I mentioned above, which is not too shabby. The stats say that, not my opinion.

Let's look at a more relevant sample; WRs with 40-49 receptions, with more than 15 ypr in their rookie years in the last 10 years:

1	Chris Chambers	wr	2001  48	883	18.40	7	129.202	Lee Evans	wr	2004  48	843	17.56	9	146.803	Santonio Holmes	wr	2006	49	824	16.82	2	95.704	Antonio Bryant	wr	2002	44	733	16.66	6	113.305	Jeremy McDaniel	wr	2000	43	697	16.21	2	81.706	Rod Gardner	wr	2001	46	741	16.11	4	99.707	Keary Colbert	wr	2004	47	754	16.04	5	105.40

All 6 of the other WRs in this sample declined in year 2.If you want stats to say something, choose a relevant population and look for more data points.

 

[CrossEyed]

So what would you give up for Holmes in a dynasty league? Cotchery? VJax? Branch?

 

[Brutis]

So what would you give up for Holmes in a dynasty league? Cotchery? VJax? Branch?

I have holmes in 2 of my dynasty leagues and i dont think i would give him up for any of these guys in a 1 for 1 deal.

 

[gheemony]

So what would you give up for Holmes in a dynasty league? Cotchery? VJax? Branch?

Cotchery - No, not a chance.VJax - NoBranch - In PPR, yes. In non-PPR, probably. Branch will probably outproduce him this year, but long-term Holmes has more upside. Depends on your need. Of course, if you own Hackett too, well then you're better of spreading your risk and keeping Holmes.Note: I own Holmes, Hackett, and B. Marshall in a dynasty contract league - already agonizing over whether to start Holmes, Hackett, or Mark Clayton in Week 1.

 

[-OZ-]

While Ward is a workhorse by real NFL standards, I don't think Ward or the team has encountered a better co-WR before than Holmes. Holmes brings the legitimate deep threat to the Steelers. I wasnt even big on Holmes last year but you have to respect his trend. The pre-season has shown he seems to be continuing where he left off. Up to this point Santonio has proven more than V-Jax and this is coming from someone who sought out V-Jax in all of last years rookie drafts. I think V-Jax will make an excellent compliment/red-zone target/possession WR type but he doesnt have the skills to be a gamebreaker like Holmes.

Just my

Holmes might be great, but I wouldn't put him above Plaxico just yet.

Plax now or Plax then?

Then. He's not Ward's co-WR now.

 

[Pittsburgh United]

Wood, Jackson might be a WR1 but he is going to be the third option on most passing plays behind Gates and LT2.Santonio Holmes might very well be the #1 receiving option in Pittsburgh

This is absolutely true!

 

[CrossEyed]

So what would you give up for Holmes in a dynasty league? Cotchery? VJax? Branch?

Cotchery - No, not a chance.VJax - NoBranch - In PPR, yes. In non-PPR, probably. Branch will probably outproduce him this year, but long-term Holmes has more upside. Depends on your need. Of course, if you own Hackett too, well then you're better of spreading your risk and keeping Holmes.Note: I own Holmes, Hackett, and B. Marshall in a dynasty contract league - already agonizing over whether to start Holmes, Hackett, or Mark Clayton in Week 1.

I think you misread my question. I'm talking about whether you would give these guys up to get Holmes.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

From my write-up in the Santonio Holmes faceoff (upside)Holmes had 49 recs for 824 yds in 2006. Four WRs in the modern NFL era had 50-60 receptions with 15.0-17.0 YPR in their rookie year. They were Roy Williams in 2004, Torry Holt in 1999, Frank Sanders in 1995 and Andre Rison in 1989. The average change in fantasy points the year after (N+1) is +37.2. Roy Williams decreased 13 pts, Torry Holt increased 83 points, Frank Sanders increased 5 points and Andre Rison increased 74 points. History says Santonio Holmes, who had 96 FP in 2006 will have 133.2 FP in 2007, which would be a ranking of WR24. That's pretty good company as far as WRs go.

Small sample. And since we're being pretty technical to begin with, he doesn't fit into the 50 reception club. I mean, you could just as well say that 50% of that bracket either decreased in production their 2nd year; or remained the same. It's like finding stats to fit your opinion.

The glass is half full though, half full. I'm just saying that Holmes fits the mold of other WRs that I mentioned above, which is not too shabby. The stats say that, not my opinion.

Let's look at a more relevant sample; WRs with 40-49 receptions, with more than 15 ypr in their rookie years in the last 10 years:

1	Chris Chambers	wr	2001  48	883	18.40	7	129.202	Lee Evans	wr	2004  48	843	17.56	9	146.803	Santonio Holmes	wr	2006	49	824	16.82	2	95.704	Antonio Bryant	wr	2002	44	733	16.66	6	113.305	Jeremy McDaniel	wr	2000	43	697	16.21	2	81.706	Rod Gardner	wr	2001	46	741	16.11	4	99.707	Keary Colbert	wr	2004	47	754	16.04	5	105.40

All 6 of the other WRs in this sample declined in year 2.If you want stats to say something, choose a relevant population and look for more data points.

Indeed.