US economy thread (1 Viewer)

[dgreen]

Regarding the luck factor, over 40% of first marriages end in divorce, and even more second marriages end in divorce. That's like flipping a coin.

Even if it were 50%, a marriage isn’t like flipping a coin. You have some control in the marriage. You can work on it, and have choices before getting into it.
Some spouses flip at some point to a different person, and people grow apart but a marriage still isn’t pure chance.

I also think the mentality of many people also treat marriage as a disposable item. It gets tough or not what they thought so lets just divorce. I don't think people take it as serious as it was once taken. I think that skews the rates a bit because of that.

IIRC, rates are skewed by age at time of marriage and education. Two college-educated people marrying mid-to-late 20s (or even later these days) have a much lower rate than those who don’t go to college and marry earlier.

 

[beer 30]

My nephew (just graduated) lives in a nice area of downtown Charlotte next to the Stadiums and pays right around that for a nice 1 bedroom in a building with a gym and pool.

We were just there for Skyshow last week and parked at The Reed parking garage. Seemed like a really nice place. The girls where trying to figure out how much it cost but had to sacrifice an email address to get a quote so they bailed.

 

[stbugs]

My nephew (just graduated) lives in a nice area of downtown Charlotte next to the Stadiums and pays right around that for a nice 1 bedroom in a building with a gym and pool.

We were just there for Skyshow last week and parked at The Reed parking garage. Seemed like a really nice place. The girls where trying to figure out how much it cost but had to sacrifice an email address to get a quote so they bailed.

It’s not that one, that looks like the next level up. $7k a month for a 2 BR is a wee bit much! It’s right around there just not that one. He could have gone cheaper, I’m sure if he wanted to drive more but he can walk to his office and it’s a decent area.

 

[beer 30]

My nephew (just graduated) lives in a nice area of downtown Charlotte next to the Stadiums and pays right around that for a nice 1 bedroom in a building with a gym and pool.

We were just there for Skyshow last week and parked at The Reed parking garage. Seemed like a really nice place. The girls where trying to figure out how much it cost but had to sacrifice an email address to get a quote so they bailed.

It’s not that one, that looks like the next level up. $7k a month for a 2 BR is a wee bit much! It’s right around there just not that one. He could have gone cheaper, I’m sure if he wanted to drive more but he can walk to his office and it’s a decent area.

Yea the Uptown area is great just expensive to live right in the heart of it. If I was young and pulling good coin, would absolutely try to live in that area.

 

[HomerSimpson]

One part of the economy that is being left out is people are asked to pay into their own retirement, yet half of people have 0 saved at all. There is stress in understanding that social security likely will be unavailable in the current form for those born much later than 1990.

Our parents generation had cushy pensions to retire on. Those are gone.

I'll add auto insurance for young men to the list of soul crushing expenses that are new to the up coming generation.

My son turned 18 and is about to go off to college next year. He was insured with my ex wife, but due to her own hardships had to drop him from her policy.

No accidents, no credit issues, but its still $300 a month to add him to my plan.

Little over $400 if he gets it himself. $450 if he uses the city as the address he parks overnight.

He's trying to be a full time student and pick up 10-15 hours a week.

Dont get me started on Insurance. I got my license the day i turned 16. Im 43 now. Never had a single claim. If i could have just invested that money id be driving a Ferrari right now haha

 

[Courtjester]

I know this totally anecdotal and maybe out there but...

Every 4th of July around here (going on 20 years) is like living in a war zone. People go all out with their firework displays. It usually starts about a week before and continues well into the following week with just a constant barrage of mortar shells and bottle rockets.

Leading up to the 4th, my wife and I kept wondering when it was coming because our cat freaks out. 1st--nothing, 2nd-nothing, 3rd--the neighborhood started at a pretty good clip. The 4th was really good. We got the lawn chairs out and just watched the various people getting dumb and dangerous around us. Oddly though, at 11:00 pm it stopped. It was just quiet. The 5th we had a couple holdouts that went pretty hard for an hour or two, but then again, quiet early on. That was it. There hasn't been a peep since

You know people didn't grow a sense of responsibility and were tired of blowing stuff up. I thought maybe people went out of town, but that was dispelled by the number of people around us going crazy on the 4th. As an aside, to get the good stuff, you have to drive to the Wyoming border (about a 3 hour drive) because most everything is illegal here. My theory is people just do not have the disposable income to blow on extras like fireworks and the gas to drive up and get them. When you have a track record of people doing a certain thing for years and then boom, it changes, there has to be a reason. Maybe I am totally wrong, but there was something obviously different about this year.

 

[General Malaise]

I know this totally anecdotal and maybe out there but...

Every 4th of July around here (going on 20 years) is like living in a war zone. People go all out with their firework displays. It usually starts about a week before and continues well into the following week with just a constant barrage of mortar shells and bottle rockets.

Leading up to the 4th, my wife and I kept wondering when it was coming because our cat freaks out. 1st--nothing, 2nd-nothing, 3rd--the neighborhood started at a pretty good clip. The 4th was really good. We got the lawn chairs out and just watched the various people getting dumb and dangerous around us. Oddly though, at 11:00 pm it stopped. It was just quiet. The 5th we had a couple holdouts that went pretty hard for an hour or two, but then again, quiet early on. That was it. There hasn't been a peep since

You know people didn't grow a sense of responsibility and were tired of blowing stuff up. I thought maybe people went out of town, but that was dispelled by the number of people around us going crazy on the 4th. As an aside, to get the good stuff, you have to drive to the Wyoming border (about a 3 hour drive) because most everything is illegal here. My theory is people just do not have the disposable income to blow on extras like fireworks and the gas to drive up and get them. When you have a track record of people doing a certain thing for years and then boom, it changes, there has to be a reason. Maybe I am totally wrong, but there was something obviously different about this year.

The entire west coast is in a drought and forest fires are ruining our planet. I'd like to think that has more to do with the reduction of fireworks but maybe it's the economy?

Just got back from Sequoia. It is incredibly sad what has happened and is happening to the lungs of our planet.

 

[stbugs]

This is anecdotal but we vacation with a bunch of friends in Hilton Head every year during the week of the 4th. It’s been over a decade with the same friends. This year, the drive to and from the beach was the least amount of traffic I can recall. I remember in the first couple years we all changed our driving schedule to leave early to avoid traffic. There would still be some but it was still better to get there early, grab lunch and wait till the house was ready than trying to get there late afternoon when the house was open. Even with going early, it seemed like the drive got worse every year until this year.

Because we split the house with 3 other families the trip is expensive but not crazy. That said, that drive sure made us think that vacations were way down. The 4th was much busier on the beach so maybe the week trips became 2-3 day trips or maybe house/condo owners came down for a couple days because their places weren’t rented.

It’s anecdotal but absolutely clear that the increasingly heavy vacation traffic of the past 4-5 years was much lighter last week.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

It's anecdotal, but my wife and I are going to Chicago for a few days next week, so tourism is up 100% in my household. Roaring 20s.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I know this totally anecdotal and maybe out there but...

Every 4th of July around here (going on 20 years) is like living in a war zone. People go all out with their firework displays. It usually starts about a week before and continues well into the following week with just a constant barrage of mortar shells and bottle rockets.

Leading up to the 4th, my wife and I kept wondering when it was coming because our cat freaks out. 1st--nothing, 2nd-nothing, 3rd--the neighborhood started at a pretty good clip. The 4th was really good. We got the lawn chairs out and just watched the various people getting dumb and dangerous around us. Oddly though, at 11:00 pm it stopped. It was just quiet. The 5th we had a couple holdouts that went pretty hard for an hour or two, but then again, quiet early on. That was it. There hasn't been a peep since

You know people didn't grow a sense of responsibility and were tired of blowing stuff up. I thought maybe people went out of town, but that was dispelled by the number of people around us going crazy on the 4th. As an aside, to get the good stuff, you have to drive to the Wyoming border (about a 3 hour drive) because most everything is illegal here. My theory is people just do not have the disposable income to blow on extras like fireworks and the gas to drive up and get them. When you have a track record of people doing a certain thing for years and then boom, it changes, there has to be a reason. Maybe I am totally wrong, but there was something obviously different about this year.

This seems like a stretch.

Apple revenue is up. Travel revenue is up. Amazon revenue is up. Netflix revenue is up. Starbucks revenue is up. Costco revenue is up. Darden (restaurants) revenue is up. Tickets (concerts and sports) revenue is up. Food delivery revenue is up.

Disposable spending is up across the board. Seems odd that fireworks would be the thing to randomly be an exception.

 

[eoMMan]

Yup, pretty much this. You can have a great economy on paper based on things like a high performing stock market, low employment rates, etc but it doesn’t always translate the same to the economies of low to middle class families going about their normal day to day lives.

Truth. But we've never had a perfect economy, so everything is relative. And relatively speaking this economy is incredible.

Yeah. If this is a bad economy, I'd be interested in what people's examples of a good one are. Every economy, even the best ones, are weak/difficult in certain areas and/or certain demographics.

Feels like at this point we need a major recession to remind people what living in a bad economy actually looks like.

Well, to be honest, if you look back at 2009/2010 after the housing crash, it was pretty much the opposite in many ways. The stock market was in the gutter but costs were low so it was a better situation for many people even though at that time, the economy would have been considered horrible. It’s all relative.

 

[belljr]

I'm going with it's 120 degrees out

 

[SFBayDuck]

This is anecdotal but we vacation with a bunch of friends in Hilton Head every year during the week of the 4th. It’s been over a decade with the same friends. This year, the drive to and from the beach was the least amount of traffic I can recall. I remember in the first couple years we all changed our driving schedule to leave early to avoid traffic. There would still be some but it was still better to get there early, grab lunch and wait till the house was ready than trying to get there late afternoon when the house was open. Even with going early, it seemed like the drive got worse every year until this year.

Because we split the house with 3 other families the trip is expensive but not crazy. That said, that drive sure made us think that vacations were way down. The 4th was much busier on the beach so maybe the week trips became 2-3 day trips or maybe house/condo owners came down for a couple days because their places weren’t rented.

It’s anecdotal but absolutely clear that the increasingly heavy vacation traffic of the past 4-5 years was much lighter last week.

That's because everybody is doing so well that they all flew instead of driving for the 4th.

 

[stbugs]

This is anecdotal but we vacation with a bunch of friends in Hilton Head every year during the week of the 4th. It’s been over a decade with the same friends. This year, the drive to and from the beach was the least amount of traffic I can recall. I remember in the first couple years we all changed our driving schedule to leave early to avoid traffic. There would still be some but it was still better to get there early, grab lunch and wait till the house was ready than trying to get there late afternoon when the house was open. Even with going early, it seemed like the drive got worse every year until this year.

Because we split the house with 3 other families the trip is expensive but not crazy. That said, that drive sure made us think that vacations were way down. The 4th was much busier on the beach so maybe the week trips became 2-3 day trips or maybe house/condo owners came down for a couple days because their places weren’t rented.

It’s anecdotal but absolutely clear that the increasingly heavy vacation traffic of the past 4-5 years was much lighter last week.

That's because everybody is doing so well that they all flew instead of driving for the 4th.

That’s definitely interesting but 1) people don’t fly to Hilton Head and 2) that 10% increase (reduction from driving) was much less than what I saw. I don’t recall ever having as little traffic in the decade+ of vacations.

I will note that we got ridiculously cheap one way flights to NY at the end of July. Probably a half to a third of what they were last year. It’s not surprising to see more airline traffic since airfare has actually been decreasing year over year.

In June, airfare was down 5% YoY: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/07/12/heres-the-deflation-breakdown-for-june-2024-in-one-chart.html

In April, it was down 5.8% YoY: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/05/16/deflation-cpi-april-2024-in-one-chart.html

I couldn’t find a year long chart, but I do recall airfare being one of the few things where prices had been dropping for a while and not going up like car insurance.

 

[Buckna]

Over the 4th last week, Colorado mountains were as packed as ever, people almost fighting over camping spots. $50 for a spot we used to go to pre-covid when there were no crowds and it was like $20. Price gouging at the pump for the holiday at its finest when gas went up like 60~70 cents for a few days and right back down after. Went to a waterpark this week with the family, long lines and crowds and it was a Wednesday. Anecdotally seems like spending going strong!

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I know this totally anecdotal and maybe out there but...

Every 4th of July around here (going on 20 years) is like living in a war zone. People go all out with their firework displays. It usually starts about a week before and continues well into the following week with just a constant barrage of mortar shells and bottle rockets.

Leading up to the 4th, my wife and I kept wondering when it was coming because our cat freaks out. 1st--nothing, 2nd-nothing, 3rd--the neighborhood started at a pretty good clip. The 4th was really good. We got the lawn chairs out and just watched the various people getting dumb and dangerous around us. Oddly though, at 11:00 pm it stopped. It was just quiet. The 5th we had a couple holdouts that went pretty hard for an hour or two, but then again, quiet early on. That was it. There hasn't been a peep since

You know people didn't grow a sense of responsibility and were tired of blowing stuff up. I thought maybe people went out of town, but that was dispelled by the number of people around us going crazy on the 4th. As an aside, to get the good stuff, you have to drive to the Wyoming border (about a 3 hour drive) because most everything is illegal here. My theory is people just do not have the disposable income to blow on extras like fireworks and the gas to drive up and get them. When you have a track record of people doing a certain thing for years and then boom, it changes, there has to be a reason. Maybe I am totally wrong, but there was something obviously different about this year.

Well here in Utah (also close to Wyoming, are you in Utah too?) they are still doing it every night in force. It's July 12th at 11pm and they just shot off some so loud it woke my 7 year old up. Now I hope they go broke.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I know this totally anecdotal and maybe out there but...

Every 4th of July around here (going on 20 years) is like living in a war zone. People go all out with their firework displays. It usually starts about a week before and continues well into the following week with just a constant barrage of mortar shells and bottle rockets.

Leading up to the 4th, my wife and I kept wondering when it was coming because our cat freaks out. 1st--nothing, 2nd-nothing, 3rd--the neighborhood started at a pretty good clip. The 4th was really good. We got the lawn chairs out and just watched the various people getting dumb and dangerous around us. Oddly though, at 11:00 pm it stopped. It was just quiet. The 5th we had a couple holdouts that went pretty hard for an hour or two, but then again, quiet early on. That was it. There hasn't been a peep since

You know people didn't grow a sense of responsibility and were tired of blowing stuff up. I thought maybe people went out of town, but that was dispelled by the number of people around us going crazy on the 4th. As an aside, to get the good stuff, you have to drive to the Wyoming border (about a 3 hour drive) because most everything is illegal here. My theory is people just do not have the disposable income to blow on extras like fireworks and the gas to drive up and get them. When you have a track record of people doing a certain thing for years and then boom, it changes, there has to be a reason. Maybe I am totally wrong, but there was something obviously different about this year.

Well here in Utah (also close to Wyoming, are you in Utah too?) they are still doing it every night in force. It's July 12th at 11pm and they just shot off some so loud it woke my 7 year old up. Now I hope they go broke.

Fireworks on July 12th?!?! What is wrong with people?

 

[massraider]

Morning Brew newsletter

For the first time since May 2020, the average cost of goods and services in the US made like a remote worker with wanderlust and dipped last month, the Labor Department reported yesterday, bolstering confidence that inflation is easing.

Carried by softening gas and rent prices, the consumer price index (CPI) decreased 0.1% in June, beating economists’ forecasts of a 0.1% monthly increase.

• That dip brought down the annual CPI, which also beat expectations, to record a 3% year over year gain in June—a one-year price growth low and a rate last seen in early 2021.
• Average gas prices fell 3.8% in June, after dropping 3.6% in May.
• Shelter prices, which account for about one-third of the CPI, only rose 0.2% in June as rents cooled. It was the category’s smallest monthly rise in three years.

If you’re thinking 0.1% doesn’t sound like much…you’re not wrong. After four inflationary years, overall CPI has risen ~20%, CNN reported, and it shows in American shoppers’ weary wallets. PepsiCo reported a drop in US sales this week, indicating a potential pullback in snack spending after years of price hikes.

But it might be enough​

Yesterday’s inflation numbers were music to economists’ ears as Jerome Powell tries to pull off a tricky balancing act with interest rates.

It appears the Fed’s interest rate hikes have worked to significantly ease inflation from a peak annual CPI of 9.1% in June 2022. The Fed has kept the federal funds rate at a record high of 5.25%–5.50% for a year now, but holding off on cuts for too long risks squeezing the economy and worsening unemployment, which reached a 2.5-year high of 4.1% in June from 4% in May.

Looking ahead…after two straight months of easing inflation, financial markets broadly upped the odds that the Fed will finally cut interest rates in September from 50%–75% to 85%–89%.—ML

 

[General Malaise]

This is anecdotal but we vacation with a bunch of friends in Hilton Head every year during the week of the 4th. It’s been over a decade with the same friends. This year, the drive to and from the beach was the least amount of traffic I can recall. I remember in the first couple years we all changed our driving schedule to leave early to avoid traffic. There would still be some but it was still better to get there early, grab lunch and wait till the house was ready than trying to get there late afternoon when the house was open. Even with going early, it seemed like the drive got worse every year until this year.

Because we split the house with 3 other families the trip is expensive but not crazy. That said, that drive sure made us think that vacations were way down. The 4th was much busier on the beach so maybe the week trips became 2-3 day trips or maybe house/condo owners came down for a couple days because their places weren’t rented.

It’s anecdotal but absolutely clear that the increasingly heavy vacation traffic of the past 4-5 years was much lighter last week.

That's because everybody is doing so well that they all flew instead of driving for the 4th.

That’s definitely interesting but 1) people don’t fly to Hilton Head and 2) that 10% increase (reduction from driving) was much less than what I saw. I don’t recall ever having as little traffic in the decade+ of vacations.

I will note that we got ridiculously cheap one way flights to NY at the end of July. Probably a half to a third of what they were last year. It’s not surprising to see more airline traffic since airfare has actually been decreasing year over year.

In June, airfare was down 5% YoY: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/07/12/heres-the-deflation-breakdown-for-june-2024-in-one-chart.html

In April, it was down 5.8% YoY: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/05/16/deflation-cpi-april-2024-in-one-chart.html

I couldn’t find a year long chart, but I do recall airfare being one of the few things where prices had been dropping for a while and not going up like car insurance.

Maybe they just aren't going to Hilton Head?

I just left Sequoia NP which ain't the easiest place to get to and I'm here to report that crowds are there, costs be damned.

Want more? I'd venture a guess that 35% or more of the tourists we encountered at jam packed restaurants, the no-vacancy hotel, the crowded hikes and pull-offs to soak in views were foreigners. So from a global perspective that's a HUGE expense for a family.

All anecdotal of course.

I'll be in Joshua Tree Monday. Will report back but keep in mind it'll be 247 degrees by 8am.

 

[Max Power]

Anecdotally seems like spending going strong!

I feel like this is where the disconnect is. People are more comfortable now spending money they don't have with limited payback options.

All while the fiscally responsible people think it's a strong economy because spending is still up. This lifeline only has so much life to it.

Americans are in more overall debt than ever, less in savings, poverty rate is rising, middle class continues shrinking and home affordability is at an all time low.

I'll feel better about the economy when I see some of those trend lines change.

 

[Gatorade]

This is anecdotal but we vacation with a bunch of friends in Hilton Head every year during the week of the 4th. It’s been over a decade with the same friends. This year, the drive to and from the beach was the least amount of traffic I can recall. I remember in the first couple years we all changed our driving schedule to leave early to avoid traffic. There would still be some but it was still better to get there early, grab lunch and wait till the house was ready than trying to get there late afternoon when the house was open. Even with going early, it seemed like the drive got worse every year until this year.

Because we split the house with 3 other families the trip is expensive but not crazy. That said, that drive sure made us think that vacations were way down. The 4th was much busier on the beach so maybe the week trips became 2-3 day trips or maybe house/condo owners came down for a couple days because their places weren’t rented.

It’s anecdotal but absolutely clear that the increasingly heavy vacation traffic of the past 4-5 years was much lighter last week.

I live on HHI. Our favorite restaurant says reservations are down for this time of year. Things don't seem as busy this year compared to others. I like it.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

 

[Desert_Power]

My nephew (just graduated) lives in a nice area of downtown Charlotte next to the Stadiums and pays right around that for a nice 1 bedroom in a building with a gym and pool.

We were just there for Skyshow last week and parked at The Reed parking garage. Seemed like a really nice place. The girls where trying to figure out how much it cost but had to sacrifice an email address to get a quote so they bailed.

It’s not that one, that looks like the next level up. $7k a month for a 2 BR is a wee bit much! It’s right around there just not that one. He could have gone cheaper, I’m sure if he wanted to drive more but he can walk to his office and it’s a decent area.

Yea the Uptown area is great just expensive to live right in the heart of it. If I was young and pulling good coin, would absolutely try to live in that area.

I was paying just under a grand for the two places I stayed in Uptown in 2010-2012, but neither was one of these "luxury" apartments with gym or pool.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

Of course it's regional. Airports had their busiest weekend ever over the 4th, and overall travel spend is up double digits. It's like saying "my Zoom stock was down this year, it must mean the stock market has been doing terrible this year!"

If anything it's probably indicative that people are spending even more money to fly somewhere more exotic rather than settle for driving over the bridge to hang out at the beach because they feel even more confident in spending that extra money than they did before.

And it makes sense that a restaurant in a drive-to destination would see a decline compared to recent years where the ratio of drive-to destinations vs fly-to destinations was artificially inflated by a pandemic that temporarily stopped people from flying as much. I work in the travel industry and this is something that we're seeing in a lot of areas. Drive-to destinations got a huge surge in visitation and overbuilt permanent supply to meet a temporary demand shift, and now there are a lot more businesses competing for a normalizing level of demand as that demand shifts back to fly-to destinations, including international travel (which is really blowing up right now).

 

[SFBayDuck]

Americans are in more overall debt than ever....

Nominally? Sure, the number is higher this year than last year. And guess what - it'll probably be higher next year and the year after and definitely will be 10 years from now. BECAUSE THE ECONOMY GROWS!

Look at this article, the first bullet is "DEBT LEVELS SURGE". And then you scroll down and actually read it, and you finally get to this: "The Federal Reserve tracks the nation's household debt payments as a percentage of disposable income. The most recent debt payment-to-income ratio, from the fourth quarter of 2023, is 9.8%. That means the average American spends nearly 10% of their monthly income on debt payments." Well that sounds bad! But then, "Despite debt increasing overall, Americans are still spending less of their income on debt than in most of the 2000s." Huh, well that changes things a bit.

But what about delinquencies? Further down in that article it says "....the delinquency rate of credit card loans from commercial banks has slowly increased...." Uh oh! Here we go! Oh, wait, keep reading, "..... although it remains well below levels over the past 30 years".

Go to the data. Consider the context or the denominator. This is the chart of the stat mentioned in the above article showing debt service as a percent of disposable personal income. Yes it's risen in the past couple of years. But it's risen from historic lows! And it's still below the level it was from 1980 through 2020!

@Max Power this isn't to call you out at all, this kind of thing is everywhere. Data comes out, here comes the headlines and cable and local news run with it. People have a tendency to not look any deeper and it becomes an embedded narrative. I'll give that article above some credit, they at least add the context. Most don't, they just give the raw numbers and trends and scream "HIGHEST EVER!". It's how news orgs and social media work, people are much more likely to doom scroll than to read data from FRED.

 

[General Malaise]

Americans are in more overall debt than ever....

Nomiinally? Sure, the number is higher this year than last year. And guess what - it'll probably be higher next year and the year after and definitely will be 10 years from now. BECAUSE THE ECONOMY GROWS!

Look at this article, the first bullet is "DEBT LEVELS SURGE". And then you scroll down and actually read it, and you finally get to this: "The Federal Reserve tracks the nation's household debt payments as a percentage of disposable income. The most recent debt payment-to-income ratio, from the fourth quarter of 2023, is 9.8%. That means the average American spends nearly 10% of their monthly income on debt payments." Well that sounds bad! But then, "Despite debt increasing overall, Americans are still spending less of their income on debt than in most of the 2000s." Huh, well that changes things a bit.

But what about delinquencies? Further down in that article it says "....the delinquency rate of credit card loans from commercial banks has slowly increased...." Uh oh! Here we go! Oh, wait, keep reading, "..... although it remains well below levels over the past 30 years".

Go to the data. Consider the context or the denominator. This is the chart of the stat mentioned in the above article showing debt service as a percent of disposable personal income. Yes it's risen in the past couple of years. But it's risen from historic lows! And it's still below the level it was from 1980 through 2020!

@Max Power this isn't to call you out at all, this kind of thing is everywhere. Data comes out, here comes the headlines and cable and local news run with it. People have a tendency to not look any deeper and it becomes an embedded narrative. I'll give that article above some credit, they at least add the context. Most don't, they just give the raw numbers and trends and scream "HIGHEST EVER!". It's how news orgs and social media work, people are much more likely to doom scroll than to read data from FRED.

This right here is an excellent post. Very well done, GB.

 

[FairWarning]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

 

[Courtjester]

I know this totally anecdotal and maybe out there but...

Every 4th of July around here (going on 20 years) is like living in a war zone. People go all out with their firework displays. It usually starts about a week before and continues well into the following week with just a constant barrage of mortar shells and bottle rockets.

Leading up to the 4th, my wife and I kept wondering when it was coming because our cat freaks out. 1st--nothing, 2nd-nothing, 3rd--the neighborhood started at a pretty good clip. The 4th was really good. We got the lawn chairs out and just watched the various people getting dumb and dangerous around us. Oddly though, at 11:00 pm it stopped. It was just quiet. The 5th we had a couple holdouts that went pretty hard for an hour or two, but then again, quiet early on. That was it. There hasn't been a peep since

You know people didn't grow a sense of responsibility and were tired of blowing stuff up. I thought maybe people went out of town, but that was dispelled by the number of people around us going crazy on the 4th. As an aside, to get the good stuff, you have to drive to the Wyoming border (about a 3 hour drive) because most everything is illegal here. My theory is people just do not have the disposable income to blow on extras like fireworks and the gas to drive up and get them. When you have a track record of people doing a certain thing for years and then boom, it changes, there has to be a reason. Maybe I am totally wrong, but there was something obviously different about this year.

Well here in Utah (also close to Wyoming, are you in Utah too?) they are still doing it every night in force. It's July 12th at 11pm and they just shot off some so loud it woke my 7 year old up. Now I hope they go broke.e b

I am in Colorado. We have been quiet all this week and then out of the blue last night, someone must have found a stash of random mortar shells because there were 10 minutes of explosions. Like GM pointed out though, the aerial ones are very concerning with how dry things are. It is 102 outside right now, so that's not helping things at all.

 

[SFBayDuck]

....less in savings, poverty rate is rising, middle class continues shrinking and home affordability is at an all time low.

The data does back up much of this for sure. Savings rates are down, not just from the historic covid/stimmie high but also at the lowest levels in 80 years other than a brief period in the mid-2000s. The middle class does appear to be shrinking (eta: I say "does appear" as some would say this is tough to measure as average household size has decreased and isn't typically figured in), although there has been some small progress on the lower income household side of things. Housing affordability is a huge problem and is trending the wrong way as it outpaces incomes.

But that debt one is a sore spot for me because you just see it everywhere!

 

[stbugs]

This is anecdotal but we vacation with a bunch of friends in Hilton Head every year during the week of the 4th. It’s been over a decade with the same friends. This year, the drive to and from the beach was the least amount of traffic I can recall. I remember in the first couple years we all changed our driving schedule to leave early to avoid traffic. There would still be some but it was still better to get there early, grab lunch and wait till the house was ready than trying to get there late afternoon when the house was open. Even with going early, it seemed like the drive got worse every year until this year.

Because we split the house with 3 other families the trip is expensive but not crazy. That said, that drive sure made us think that vacations were way down. The 4th was much busier on the beach so maybe the week trips became 2-3 day trips or maybe house/condo owners came down for a couple days because their places weren’t rented.

It’s anecdotal but absolutely clear that the increasingly heavy vacation traffic of the past 4-5 years was much lighter last week.

I live on HHI. Our favorite restaurant says reservations are down for this time of year. Things don't seem as busy this year compared to others. I like it.

I said it was anecdotal, but it was obvious that there were less visitors this year.

 

[Max Power]

Americans are in more overall debt than ever....

Nomiinally? Sure, the number is higher this year than last year. And guess what - it'll probably be higher next year and the year after and definitely will be 10 years from now. BECAUSE THE ECONOMY GROWS!

Look at this article, the first bullet is "DEBT LEVELS SURGE". And then you scroll down and actually read it, and you finally get to this: "The Federal Reserve tracks the nation's household debt payments as a percentage of disposable income. The most recent debt payment-to-income ratio, from the fourth quarter of 2023, is 9.8%. That means the average American spends nearly 10% of their monthly income on debt payments." Well that sounds bad! But then, "Despite debt increasing overall, Americans are still spending less of their income on debt than in most of the 2000s." Huh, well that changes things a bit.

But what about delinquencies? Further down in that article it says "....the delinquency rate of credit card loans from commercial banks has slowly increased...." Uh oh! Here we go! Oh, wait, keep reading, "..... although it remains well below levels over the past 30 years".

Go to the data. Consider the context or the denominator. This is the chart of the stat mentioned in the above article showing debt service as a percent of disposable personal income. Yes it's risen in the past couple of years. But it's risen from historic lows! And it's still below the level it was from 1980 through 2020!

@Max Power this isn't to call you out at all, this kind of thing is everywhere. Data comes out, here comes the headlines and cable and local news run with it. People have a tendency to not look any deeper and it becomes an embedded narrative. I'll give that article above some credit, they at least add the context. Most don't, they just give the raw numbers and trends and scream "HIGHEST EVER!". It's how news orgs and social media work, people are much more likely to doom scroll than to read data from FRED.

That was a good article. Thank you.

I understand there is "good debt" or asset debt that gets counted against overall debt.

I'm concerned with the credit card debt. Granted the overall credit card debt dropped from 23 Q4 to 24 Q1, and I'd like to see that continue to decline, but I'm skeptical as are others. I see too many people I know getting into some bad debt with their cards and not have a strategy to get out of it.

There is also the phantom debt from BNPL which isn't being tracked against American consumer debt. Those numbers are all over the place, but its a growing industry and some expectations have the BNPL industry doubling by 2028. I think one estimate has it at 300B currently. It's concerning to me there is another 300B of credit extended on top of the 1.1T out there.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/05/28/buy-now-pay-later-loans-are-second-only-to-credit-cards-in-popularity.html

 

[General Malaise]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

 

[Mitchie]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

This seems indicative of the rich getting richer and having tons of disposable income vs. the lower income folks that aren't participating. Stock market is up lots, housing market is up +plenty of folks with very low mortgages.

 

[Schmeabs]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

Don't you dare sell those OSU/Oregon tickets. We need to limit the red in the stadium!

 

[belljr]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

I can afford it but zero chance I pay for pro sports anymore. If I didn't get tix from my bil I'd probably never go to another game

 

[Grahamburn]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

This seems indicative of the rich getting richer and having tons of disposable income vs. the lower income folks that aren't participating. Stock market is up lots, housing market is up +plenty of folks with very low mortgages.

I'd love to get 401k participation data of the Olivia Rodrigo crowd. I guess the question is do we care? It's not really our problem. 20 somethings not being concerned about their futures is a tale as old as time. Does them getting into crazy credit card debt really matter?

I'd also be one of those low mortgage folks that couldn't afford my own house right now and I like to think I make a pretty good living even by FBGs standards.

 

[AAABatteries]

But if I had landed in Altanta, I still would have been fine. My cars would have a lot more miles on them and I wouldn't like the weather so much, but I would still be on roughly the same retirement timeline that I'm now, because I now realize that my wife and I would have adjusted our spending to make it happen. Barring a major medical event or something, there was never any timeline in which we weren't comfortable in our 50s.

And then you would have had to live in Atlanta...

First, you stop sexting and then you make fun of my hometown. That’s it - no more feet selfies for you, caveman!

 

[Mitchie]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

This seems indicative of the rich getting richer and having tons of disposable income vs. the lower income folks that aren't participating. Stock market is up lots, housing market is up +plenty of folks with very low mortgages.

I'd love to get 401k participation data of the Olivia Rodrigo crowd. I guess the question is do we care? It's not really our problem. 20 somethings not being concerned about their futures is a tale as old as time. Does them getting into crazy credit card debt really matter?

I'd also be one of those low mortgage folks that couldn't afford my own house right now and I like to think I make a pretty good living even by FBGs standards.

Don't really know much about Oliva Rodrigo but with Swift seems like a lot of parents would be buying the tickets

 

[Psychopav]

This is anecdotal but we vacation with a bunch of friends in Hilton Head every year during the week of the 4th. It’s been over a decade with the same friends. This year, the drive to and from the beach was the least amount of traffic I can recall. I remember in the first couple years we all changed our driving schedule to leave early to avoid traffic. There would still be some but it was still better to get there early, grab lunch and wait till the house was ready than trying to get there late afternoon when the house was open. Even with going early, it seemed like the drive got worse every year until this year.

Because we split the house with 3 other families the trip is expensive but not crazy. That said, that drive sure made us think that vacations were way down. The 4th was much busier on the beach so maybe the week trips became 2-3 day trips or maybe house/condo owners came down for a couple days because their places weren’t rented.

It’s anecdotal but absolutely clear that the increasingly heavy vacation traffic of the past 4-5 years was much lighter last week.

That's because everybody is doing so well that they all flew instead of driving for the 4th.

That’s definitely interesting but 1) people don’t fly to Hilton Head and 2) that 10% increase (reduction from driving) was much less than what I saw. I don’t recall ever having as little traffic in the decade+ of vacations.

I will note that we got ridiculously cheap one way flights to NY at the end of July. Probably a half to a third of what they were last year. It’s not surprising to see more airline traffic since airfare has actually been decreasing year over year.

In June, airfare was down 5% YoY: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/07/12/heres-the-deflation-breakdown-for-june-2024-in-one-chart.html

In April, it was down 5.8% YoY: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/05/16/deflation-cpi-april-2024-in-one-chart.html

I couldn’t find a year long chart, but I do recall airfare being one of the few things where prices had been dropping for a while and not going up like car insurance.

Maybe they just aren't going to Hilton Head?

I just left Sequoia NP which ain't the easiest place to get to and I'm here to report that crowds are there, costs be damned.

Want more? I'd venture a guess that 35% or more of the tourists we encountered at jam packed restaurants, the no-vacancy hotel, the crowded hikes and pull-offs to soak in views were foreigners. So from a global perspective that's a HUGE expense for a family.

All anecdotal of course.

I'll be in Joshua Tree Monday. Will report back but keep in mind it'll be 247 degrees by 8am.

Just to add some anecdotal fuel to the fire, I was in Niagara a month ago or so and it was ridiculously packed (and ridiculously expensive). Obviously the other side of the tourist trap coin so it seems to be happening on both ends of the spectrum.

 

[beef]

I've never made more money, had more buying power, or a higher net worth than I have right now. I've taken advantage of rate & market swings and made some personal finance life changes. I've continued to grow and seek more career wise and have changed jobs a few times during the past 8 years. I'm not blessed. I just worked hard. If you're not doing better now than 4 years ago, or better 4 years ago than you were 8 years ago, or plan to be better off in 4 years from now, look in the mirror. Starts there.

 

[-OZ-]

I've never made more money, had more buying power, or a higher net worth than I have right now. I've taken advantage of rate & market swings and made some personal finance life changes. I've continued to grow and seek more career wise and have changed jobs a few times during the past 8 years. I'm not blessed. I just worked hard. If you're not doing better now than 4 years ago, or better 4 years ago than you were 8 years ago, or plan to be better off in 4 years from now, look in the mirror. Starts there.

I’m with you with most of this but can’t deny that good luck / fortunate / blessing is definitely part of it.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

I think a lot of the disconnect here, and why looking at tourist destinations and concert tickets isn’t necessarily the best way to sleuth out the state of the economy is that it is very bifurcated right now. If you are mid or late career with large stock market exposure and some equity in a home, the last five years have been absolutely phenomenal. If you’re renting and not in the market, it’s a lot less rosy, and for the lower end where food is a large portion of the budget inflation has to be really biting. It seems to be slowing down, but that’s after a rough few years.

 

[General Malaise]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

Don't you dare sell those OSU/Oregon tickets. We need to limit the red in the stadium!

Oh, I won't. I'll be there! Meet up at @SFBayDuck tailgate?

 

[General Malaise]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

This seems indicative of the rich getting richer and having tons of disposable income vs. the lower income folks that aren't participating. Stock market is up lots, housing market is up +plenty of folks with very low mortgages.

I'd love to get 401k participation data of the Olivia Rodrigo crowd. I guess the question is do we care? It's not really our problem. 20 somethings not being concerned about their futures is a tale as old as time. Does them getting into crazy credit card debt really matter?

I'd also be one of those low mortgage folks that couldn't afford my own house right now and I like to think I make a pretty good living even by FBGs standards.

Don't really know much about Oliva Rodrigo but with Swift seems like a lot of parents would be buying the tickets

My daughter is not happy with us because we refuse to pay that kind of money for a concert. I'm a fan of hers too, but I'm not shelling out $400 + or more for anybody. I'm just not.

But others have no problem with it.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

This seems indicative of the rich getting richer and having tons of disposable income vs. the lower income folks that aren't participating. Stock market is up lots, housing market is up +plenty of folks with very low mortgages.

I'd love to get 401k participation data of the Olivia Rodrigo crowd. I guess the question is do we care? It's not really our problem. 20 somethings not being concerned about their futures is a tale as old as time. Does them getting into crazy credit card debt really matter?

I'd also be one of those low mortgage folks that couldn't afford my own house right now and I like to think I make a pretty good living even by FBGs standards.

Don't really know much about Oliva Rodrigo but with Swift seems like a lot of parents would be buying the tickets

My daughter is not happy with us because we refuse to pay that kind of money for a concert. I'm a fan of hers too, but I'm not shelling out $400 + or more for anybody. I'm just not.

But others have no problem with it.

People nowadays are willing to pay lots of $$$ to buy experiences as part of their own personal brand-building. I find it bizarre that so many people are wired that way, but admittedly I generally don’t care what other people think about me…..

 

[beef]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

This seems indicative of the rich getting richer and having tons of disposable income vs. the lower income folks that aren't participating. Stock market is up lots, housing market is up +plenty of folks with very low mortgages.

I'd love to get 401k participation data of the Olivia Rodrigo crowd. I guess the question is do we care? It's not really our problem. 20 somethings not being concerned about their futures is a tale as old as time. Does them getting into crazy credit card debt really matter?

I'd also be one of those low mortgage folks that couldn't afford my own house right now and I like to think I make a pretty good living even by FBGs standards.

Don't really know much about Oliva Rodrigo but with Swift seems like a lot of parents would be buying the tickets

My daughter is not happy with us because we refuse to pay that kind of money for a concert. I'm a fan of hers too, but I'm not shelling out $400 + or more for anybody. I'm just not.

But others have no problem with it.

That's a lot. I'm going to Green Day in Aug. My son's first concert. Almost $1000 for 4 tickets on the field (American Family Stadium - Brewers) and parking. Its been years since my wife and I have gone to concert so it was kind of a splurge and relive some glory days for us.

 

[Schmeabs]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

Don't you dare sell those OSU/Oregon tickets. We need to limit the red in the stadium!

Oh, I won't. I'll be there! Meet up at @SFBayDuck tailgate?

Sounds good!

 

[BassNBrew]

Kind of funny this thread has been around for a year where the economy has been objectively quite strong. Inflation has stabilized from 2022. Unemployment has stayed sub 4%. NASDAQ is up.

Corporations are making massive profits due to the prices they’re charging. Stocks are up. That’s great if you can afford to own stocks.

40+ year old FBGs that already own homes and stocks are probably fine.

What about our kids though? A lot of them are struggling.

I had two requests this week to pause 401k contributions for mid-20s female staff members.

The increases in index funds won’t help much if they have to sacrifice their futures to afford their present.

It really is an economy of the haves and have nots largely separated by age. We are an older group and most of us are doing just fine. Economy is good. I work with largely a younger group. It’s not good for them. Until recently, new nurses were able to afford to live. Many now have an additional part time job. That was never a thing and these are kids making well above average for their age. They laugh when the topic of buying a house comes up. We are spending future dollars today which have largely propped up asset prices. The under 35s have not benefitted from that, yet they will be the ones footing the bill. I don’t want to get too far into it because it will end up being a boomer discussion about how hard we worked, they need to sacrifice, stop buying Starbucks etc. Objectively looking at it though, starting out has never been less affordable.

This is basically my read of the situation as well. Those of us with time in the market are doing great. It does seem like 20/30-somethings have it tougher than I did at that age.

All three of my 20 somethings made more than me the last couple of years and are in the 6 digits. One went to fancy college, one to the cheapest in state option, and the other didn't (he made the most). The two that are in relationships are with partners probably closing in on $150k. Two of them spent some time living at home banking cash. One is with a company that matches your 401k 2% contribution up to 10%. One of the partners was with a company that took the whole company to Telluride for an expenses covered ski trip while on the clock. All of them except for one started with less than excellent jobs and have progressed well from there.

While I agree that some things are tougher, the internet has opened up a whole host of job opportunities that we didn't even know about because they weren't at the local job fair. With the exception of covid when the gov't paid your rent and your gave you more in unemployment than you made and sent you bonus checks, none of them have experienced a true recession or times where there are mass layoffs and you can't find a job.

 

[BassNBrew]

It could be regional. We were at the Delaware beaches over the 4th and they were absolutely jammed. Traffic seemed significantly worse than previous years.

The beaches were packed on Lake Michigan also. If people were going on vacation one week this summer, it’s going to be around July 4. The true test will be random summer weeks from now to Labor Day.

Let's take another real world example:

Sporting events. I have tickets for the Oregon/Ohio State game on Oct. 12. If I listed the pair right now for $1,200 today they would be snapped up by tomorrow.

I spend $1,075 for my entire season tickets.

More? Olivia Rodrigo is charging Taylor Swift prices for her concerts. And she's not only getting them but the after market prices are insane.

This seems indicative of the rich getting richer and having tons of disposable income vs. the lower income folks that aren't participating. Stock market is up lots, housing market is up +plenty of folks with very low mortgages.

I'd love to get 401k participation data of the Olivia Rodrigo crowd. I guess the question is do we care? It's not really our problem. 20 somethings not being concerned about their futures is a tale as old as time. Does them getting into crazy credit card debt really matter?

I'd also be one of those low mortgage folks that couldn't afford my own house right now and I like to think I make a pretty good living even by FBGs standards.

Don't really know much about Oliva Rodrigo but with Swift seems like a lot of parents would be buying the tickets

My daughter is not happy with us because we refuse to pay that kind of money for a concert. I'm a fan of hers too, but I'm not shelling out $400 + or more for anybody. I'm just not.

But others have no problem with it.

If enough people say enough, the prices will eventually settle down.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

People nowadays are willing to pay lots of $$$ to buy experiences as part of their own personal brand-building. I find it bizarre that so many people are wired that way, but admittedly I generally don’t care what other people think about me…..

Not really a bad decision, if you're spending money you can afford. I have no beef at all with people dropping coin for Taylor Swift concerts (or whatever). I shelled out for Row 1 end zone seats a few years ago, and it was definitely worth it just to be able to catch my son and me on the broadcast later on. Then again, I wasn't doing that for my "personal brand" or anything either.