I just have a feeling (1 Viewer)

[Blackjacks]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.

1) He'll be 29 next year

2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year

3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season

4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last year

He has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting.

Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

 

[Chunky Soup]

It's not a bad guess, but just remember that people have been trying to call this for the last 2-3 seasons now.

 

[fred_1_15301]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb?2. Wasn't he the leading rusher?3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load4. Good point.

 

[Newslang]

red x

 

[Dodge]

What you should remember is that this is LT first significant injury in his life. He'll be fine next year.

 

[Blackjacks]

What you should remember is that this is LT first significant injury in his life. He'll be fine next year.

While I agee I would say little nagging injuries can turn into something larger (not rocket science of course)

 

[Blackjacks]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.

1) He'll be 29 next year

2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year

3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season

4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last year

He has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting.

Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb? yes2. Wasn't he the leading rusher? yes

3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load no

4. Good point. touchette

 

[fred_1_15301]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.

1) He'll be 29 next year

2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year

3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season

4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last year

He has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting.

Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb? yes2. Wasn't he the leading rusher? yes

3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load no

4. Good point. touchette

We'll have to agree to disagree I guess......

 

[AllVolUT]

This is an interesting topic I, for one, expect to hear a lot about for the next six months. I could see ADP, SJax, and even Gore (depending on Larry Allen replacements as well as Martz' system) surpassing LT2 - that being said, LT2 is still the clear-cut #1 pick in redrafts IMO. LT2 might not finish as the #1 FF back in the league next year, but barring injury (which might actually be a concern w/ age + carries) he is a lock for Top 5.

To somewhat hijack this thread, I feel as if the #3 pick (and even #4 in 2QB leagues) in redrafts this year is key - being the recipient of either ADP or SJax might warrant better value.

 

[awesomeness]

i also have a feeling.....

but i am a man. I dont tell other men about my feelings, i keep it bottled up inside, where it belongs.

 

[Synthesizer]

It's not a bad guess, but just remember that people have been trying to call this for the last 2-3 seasons now.

I can remember people calling for his downfall after the 2002 season where he had 450 touches..... and again after the 2003 season where he had over 400 touches.... and again after the 2004 season where he only averaged 3.9 ypc..... etc.

 

[Tom Baker]

I could see ADP, SJax, and even Gore (depending on Larry Allen replacements as well as Martz' system) surpassing LT2

All three have already missed more time due to injury than LT. I wouldn't be surprised if LT is still playing when these three have called it a career.

 

[FUBAR]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

I won't disagree with anything except "He has taken alot of hits over his career". For his # of carries, he's been hit very rarely.

 

[AllVolUT]

It's not a bad guess, but just remember that people have been trying to call this for the last 2-3 seasons now.

I can remember people calling for his downfall after the 2002 season where he had 450 touches..... and again after the 2003 season where he had over 400 touches.... and again after the 2004 season where he only averaged 3.9 ypc..... etc.

I agree with all this. However, at some point we have to realize the history involved with other backs similar to him. LT2 has averaged over 400 touches in his 7 seasons. He will be 29. His first notable crucial ligament injury kept him out of the AFC Championship.Personally I feel LT2 has one (maybe two) more #1 FF back seasons - that being said, it would be ignorant to not expect and plan for a decrease in value in the next year or two.

 

[gianmarco]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb?2. Wasn't he the leading rusher?3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load4. Good point.

See Shaun Alexander.....

 

[AllVolUT]

I could see ADP, SJax, and even Gore (depending on Larry Allen replacements as well as Martz' system) surpassing LT2

All three have already missed more time due to injury than LT. I wouldn't be surprised if LT is still playing when these three have called it a career.

Gore missed one game in the last two years. Peterson, although has a history of unique college injuries, tore his LCL and was back in two games. SJax missed his first stretch of games due to injury (only four) in three years.I guess that is your standard, then 99.9% of the league has missed more time due to injury than LT - in which case, you're saying LT will outlast nearly every current running back on any squad.

 

[Despyzer]

Unless you are anticipating an injury that keeps him out for multiple games, I don't see much of a historic precedent for a guy leading the league in rushing in consecutive years and then dropping out of the top five.

 

[Blackjacks]

Unless you are anticipating an injury that keeps him out for multiple games, I don't see much of a historic precedent for a guy leading the league in rushing in consecutive years and then dropping out of the top five.

That's why it's a feeling. Look, I love LT. He has been an absolute stud since entering the NFL. I just think every dog has its day and this one could be LT's. If you want to draft him there are many good reasons to do so. I'm just stating the reasons that could go against him and why I see a fall off coming. It's an opinion, you don't have to agree or disagree. Just wanted to get it off my chest.

 

[Banger]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb?2. Wasn't he the leading rusher?3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load4. Good point.

See Shaun Alexander.....

terrible comparison.

 

[fred_1_15301]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb?2. Wasn't he the leading rusher?3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load4. Good point.

See Shaun Alexander.....

terrible comparison.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb?2. Wasn't he the leading rusher?3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load4. Good point.

See Shaun Alexander.....

terrible comparison.

Rivers will be ready for trainging camp, I mean he dont even need an ACL

 

[Despyzer]

Unless you are anticipating an injury that keeps him out for multiple games, I don't see much of a historic precedent for a guy leading the league in rushing in consecutive years and then dropping out of the top five.

That's why it's a feeling. Look, I love LT. He has been an absolute stud since entering the NFL. I just think every dog has its day and this one could be LT's. If you want to draft him there are many good reasons to do so. I'm just stating the reasons that could go against him and why I see a fall off coming. It's an opinion, you don't have to agree or disagree. Just wanted to get it off my chest.

Except if Tomlinson is the dog, his day has lasted seven years now. I don't think it's a freak occurrence that he has been riding this hot streak for seven years. Anything's possible, I guess, but I don't think historic trends support your argument in this case.

 

[Tom Baker]

I could see ADP, SJax, and even Gore (depending on Larry Allen replacements as well as Martz' system) surpassing LT2

All three have already missed more time due to injury than LT. I wouldn't be surprised if LT is still playing when these three have called it a career.

Gore missed one game in the last two years. Peterson, although has a history of unique college injuries, tore his LCL and was back in two games. SJax missed his first stretch of games due to injury (only four) in three years.I guess that is your standard, then 99.9% of the league has missed more time due to injury than LT - in which case, you're saying LT will outlast nearly every current running back on any squad.

I didn't say he "will" outlast anyone. I said I "wouldn't be surprised" if he did, and yes, I would add nearly every other running back you might cite to that list, though it clearly won't be true for all.At any rate, it was a statement of fact (which you failed to refute), followed by something which is clearly identified as personal opinion, though based on the evidence I cited as well as the fact that NFL running backs tend to have short careers (i.e. Cadillac Williams is closer to the norm than LT). Not sure how that qualifies as

 

[Burning Sensation]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb?2. Wasn't he the leading rusher?3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load4. Good point.

See Shaun Alexander.....

terrible comparison.

Maybe not an exact comparison, but certainly not a terrible one. Twenty eight year old RB coming off a long string of huge seasons. Carries really starting to add up, injuries for first time in his career. Time to trade LT is now!!!

 

[Banger]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb?2. Wasn't he the leading rusher?3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load4. Good point.

See Shaun Alexander.....

terrible comparison.

Maybe not an exact comparison, but certainly not a terrible one. Twenty eight year old RB coming off a long string of huge seasons. Carries really starting to add up, injuries for first time in his career. Time to trade LT is now!!!

I don't know why everyone is saying that this is his 1st injury. He had a badly injured hammy a couple years back and cracked ribs the following year both of which he played through. The situations surrounding LT and SA aren't nearly the same, their talent isn't nearly the same and their injury history isn't nearly the same. Other than that it's a good comparison. As far as trading him goes it depends on your team. If your team is close you keep him because he'll still be a top RB for a couple more years but if you're team is in rebuild mode it might make sense to bite the bullet and get some big chips back from a team looking to make a run in the near term.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb?2. Wasn't he the leading rusher?3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load4. Good point.

See Shaun Alexander.....

terrible comparison.

Maybe not an exact comparison, but certainly not a terrible one. Twenty eight year old RB coming off a long string of huge seasons. Carries really starting to add up, injuries for first time in his career. Time to trade LT is now!!!

I don't know why everyone is saying that this is his 1st injury. He had a badly injured hammy a couple years back and cracked ribs the following year both of which he played through. The situations surrounding LT and SA aren't nearly the same, their talent isn't nearly the same and their injury history isn't nearly the same. Other than that it's a good comparison. As far as trading him goes it depends on your team. If your team is close you keep him because he'll still be a top RB for a couple more years but if you're team is in rebuild mode it might make sense to bite the bullet and get some big chips back from a team looking to make a run in the near term.

Its his first injury serious enough to keep him out of a playof game. Point being, both players proved durable over a long stretch of time, and at 28, injuries starting costing them playing time. I am not saying SA is as talented as LT, but Alexander is/was certainly considered a top back. I dont think talent has alot to do with it anyway. How many great RB's numbers didnt start to drop at the age of 29?

 

[Banger]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess <_<

1. Is that old for a rb?2. Wasn't he the leading rusher?3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load4. Good point.

See Shaun Alexander.....

terrible comparison.

Maybe not an exact comparison, but certainly not a terrible one. Twenty eight year old RB coming off a long string of huge seasons. Carries really starting to add up, injuries for first time in his career. Time to trade LT is now!!!

I don't know why everyone is saying that this is his 1st injury. He had a badly injured hammy a couple years back and cracked ribs the following year both of which he played through. The situations surrounding LT and SA aren't nearly the same, their talent isn't nearly the same and their injury history isn't nearly the same. Other than that it's a good comparison. As far as trading him goes it depends on your team. If your team is close you keep him because he'll still be a top RB for a couple more years but if you're team is in rebuild mode it might make sense to bite the bullet and get some big chips back from a team looking to make a run in the near term.

Its his first injury serious enough to keep him out of a playof game. Point being, both players proved durable over a long stretch of time, and at 28, injuries starting costing them playing time. I am not saying SA is as talented as LT, but Alexander is/was certainly considered a top back. I dont think talent has alot to do with it anyway. How many great RB's numbers didnt start to drop at the age of 29?

how many have broken as many records at this point in their careers as LT has? Talent has everything to do with it.

 

[ceo3west]

Good topic. Knowing when to let go is always difficult - I remember when M Faulk was king of the hill for a few years, and I drafted him #1 the year he started to decline. The lesson I learned after that is I would rather take a safer player on the upswing whose best years are ahead of him, instead of gambling on a guy who has been on top for a few years but whose best years are PROBABLY behind him. Next year I would probably take guys like ADP or S Jax ahead of LT, as they fall into this criteria. Leagues cannot be won in the first round, but they can certainly be lost.

 

[gianmarco]

Unless you are anticipating an injury that keeps him out for multiple games, I don't see much of a historic precedent for a guy leading the league in rushing in consecutive years and then dropping out of the top five.

You don't?2004--Shaun Alexander finished 2nd in rushing by 1 yd (4.8 ypc)2005--Shaun Alexander finished 1st in rushing (5.1 ypc)2006--Shaun Alexander was 28 (turning 29), dropped his ypc to 3.6 (had never been below 4.0 his entire career, played 10 games, failed to reach 1000 yds2007--Shaun Alexander rushed for only 716 yds.I can't think of a more perfect example, especially that's recent and still fresh in our minds. Ask any Alexander owners how they felt going into the 2006 season and how they feel now.Now, I know Alexander was injured in 2006, but he was nowhere NEAR the pace to finish in the top 5. Again, ignore at your peril. I know LT is LT, but when the bottom falls out, it happens fast and there is no turning back. Let's just say I think there's a good chance he finishes in the top 5, but if he were to drop out of it, I wouldn't be surprised in the least. And if I owned him, this is absolutely the time I would be selling. His value is still incredibly high and you can more than get his worth considering the next 2-3 yrs and what will LIKELY happen to him (yes, it's inevitable, even for LT).

 

[Burning Sensation]

I can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess

1. Is that old for a rb?2. Wasn't he the leading rusher?3. Wouldn't this actually increase his fantasy value as the Chargers would be forced to rely more on LT to carry the load4. Good point.

See Shaun Alexander.....

terrible comparison.

Maybe not an exact comparison, but certainly not a terrible one. Twenty eight year old RB coming off a long string of huge seasons. Carries really starting to add up, injuries for first time in his career. Time to trade LT is now!!!

I don't know why everyone is saying that this is his 1st injury. He had a badly injured hammy a couple years back and cracked ribs the following year both of which he played through. The situations surrounding LT and SA aren't nearly the same, their talent isn't nearly the same and their injury history isn't nearly the same. Other than that it's a good comparison. As far as trading him goes it depends on your team. If your team is close you keep him because he'll still be a top RB for a couple more years but if you're team is in rebuild mode it might make sense to bite the bullet and get some big chips back from a team looking to make a run in the near term.

Its his first injury serious enough to keep him out of a playof game. Point being, both players proved durable over a long stretch of time, and at 28, injuries starting costing them playing time. I am not saying SA is as talented as LT, but Alexander is/was certainly considered a top back. I dont think talent has alot to do with it anyway. How many great RB's numbers didnt start to drop at the age of 29?

how many have broken as many records at this point in their careers as LT has? Talent has everything to do with it.

Well, there is where our opinions differ. I am guessing LT will not be as successful in his 30's and he was in his 20's no matter how talented he is. One more thing, how many records has LT broken other than TD's in a season? (which i should add has been broken 3 times in the last 5 years, once by Alexander)

 

[Synthesizer]

Good topic. Knowing when to let go is always difficult - I remember when M Faulk was king of the hill for a few years, and I drafted him #1 the year he started to decline. The lesson I learned after that is I would rather take a safer player on the upswing whose best years are ahead of him, instead of gambling on a guy who has been on top for a few years but whose best years are PROBABLY behind him. Next year I would probably take guys like ADP or S Jax ahead of LT, as they fall into this criteria. Leagues cannot be won in the first round, but they can certainly be lost.

So heading into 2007 your thought process would have landed you Larry Johnson or SJax instead of LT. LT outscored both of those guys combined.

 

[Synthesizer]

One more thing, how many records has LT broken other than TD's in a season? (which i should add has been broken 3 times in the last 5 years, once by Alexander)

First player to rush for 1000 yards and have 100 receptions in a season.Tied the record for most consecutive games with a TD.Most TDs over a 6 game span (19)Fastest player ever to 100 TDs (89 games)Those are just of his wiki page so I'm sure there are more.

 

[Despyzer]

Unless you are anticipating an injury that keeps him out for multiple games, I don't see much of a historic precedent for a guy leading the league in rushing in consecutive years and then dropping out of the top five.

You don't?2004--Shaun Alexander finished 2nd in rushing by 1 yd (4.8 ypc)

2005--Shaun Alexander finished 1st in rushing (5.1 ypc)

2006--Shaun Alexander was 28 (turning 29), dropped his ypc to 3.6 (had never been below 4.0 his entire career, played 10 games, failed to reach 1000 yds

2007--Shaun Alexander rushed for only 716 yds.

I can't think of a more perfect example, especially that's recent and still fresh in our minds. Ask any Alexander owners how they felt going into the 2006 season and how they feel now.

Now, I know Alexander was injured in 2006, but he was nowhere NEAR the pace to finish in the top 5. Again, ignore at your peril. I know LT is LT, but when the bottom falls out, it happens fast and there is no turning back.

So you are banking on an injury to Tomlinson? Do you have some sort of crystal ball to predict these things? I assume that you are also predicting that the Chargers will suffer a very sizable loss to the offensive line, just like Alexander did in 2006 when the Vikings snaked Hutch away.Name the last guy who led the league in rushing for consecutive years and fell out of the top five the next due to something other than a serious injury?

 

[ceo3west]

Good topic. Knowing when to let go is always difficult - I remember when M Faulk was king of the hill for a few years, and I drafted him #1 the year he started to decline. The lesson I learned after that is I would rather take a safer player on the upswing whose best years are ahead of him, instead of gambling on a guy who has been on top for a few years but whose best years are PROBABLY behind him. Next year I would probably take guys like ADP or S Jax ahead of LT, as they fall into this criteria. Leagues cannot be won in the first round, but they can certainly be lost.

So heading into 2007 your thought process would have landed you Larry Johnson or SJax instead of LT. LT outscored both of those guys combined.

I didn't consider Johnson a safe pick this year due to his circumstances. SJax I did consider safe, but fortunately I didn't have to make that choice. I'm not saying it always works out, but what I am saying is that if I'm picking a guy in the top 3 or 5, I want a safer pick, a guy on the upswing. To me, gambling on an older back whose best years are most likely behind him is not a good strategy. See these guys: Emmit Smith, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Shawn Alexander. Each of these was a consensus #1 RB after one or two years of being the #1 RB, and naturally each one failed to retain that position as the #1 RB. Not letting go and not being able to realize that even these guys are human and will in fact decline is formula for failure.

 

[Marc Levin]

He'll be 29? So what?

The RB cutoff is 30+, not "gonna be 29." I'll reject that point outright. The nagging injuries, OTOH, combined with his first real knee injury ever, are valid reasons to be concerned.

 

[fantasyplayer]

For those of us who would be interested in shopping him, what should we expect? I'm in a 12 team, keep 4 league with Gore, S. Smith and Houshmandzadeh as my other keepers. I'm thinking and Addai or Lynch type plus a first round pick. Would that be getting enough?

 

[Marc Levin]

For those of us who would be interested in shopping him, what should we expect? I'm in a 12 team, keep 4 league with Gore, S. Smith and Houshmandzadeh as my other keepers. I'm thinking and Addai or Lynch type plus a first round pick. Would that be getting enough?

But, you should expect the MOST you can get for any player - he's likely to be the consensus #1 overall pick in redraft leagues, or 1 of the top-2 (tossing AD into the mix).Addai/Lynch plus a 1 plus a decent off-position player, IMO. Is anyone in dynasty leagues more valuable than AD or LT?

 

[Burning Sensation]

He'll be 29? So what?

The RB cutoff is 30+, not "gonna be 29." I'll reject that point outright. The nagging injuries, OTOH, combined with his first real knee injury ever, are valid reasons to be concerned.

So wait until he is 30/31 until you trade him? Didnt work so good for the SA, Holmes and Faulk owners over the last few years.

 

[Marc Levin]

He'll be 29? So what?

The RB cutoff is 30+, not "gonna be 29." I'll reject that point outright. The nagging injuries, OTOH, combined with his first real knee injury ever, are valid reasons to be concerned.

So wait until he is 30/31 until you trade him? Didnt work so good for the SA, Holmes and Faulk owners over the last few years.

No - read on, B.S. The injuries are a concern."Gonna be 29" in June is irrelevant to him finishing in the top-5. When he was 29, Holmes finished as the #1 back. SA is not a decent analogy (IMO) because he gave up after he got the fat contract. But you have a point with Faulk (dropped from 1 to 14 and never finished higher than that).

Regardless, I can find plenty of former top-5 backs who were still top-5 as 29 year olds. It simply is not the dropoff - 30 is.

 

[Synthesizer]

Good topic. Knowing when to let go is always difficult - I remember when M Faulk was king of the hill for a few years, and I drafted him #1 the year he started to decline. The lesson I learned after that is I would rather take a safer player on the upswing whose best years are ahead of him, instead of gambling on a guy who has been on top for a few years but whose best years are PROBABLY behind him. Next year I would probably take guys like ADP or S Jax ahead of LT, as they fall into this criteria. Leagues cannot be won in the first round, but they can certainly be lost.

So heading into 2007 your thought process would have landed you Larry Johnson or SJax instead of LT. LT outscored both of those guys combined.

I didn't consider Johnson a safe pick this year due to his circumstances. SJax I did consider safe, but fortunately I didn't have to make that choice. I'm not saying it always works out, but what I am saying is that if I'm picking a guy in the top 3 or 5, I want a safer pick, a guy on the upswing. To me, gambling on an older back whose best years are most likely behind him is not a good strategy. See these guys: Emmit Smith, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Shawn Alexander. Each of these was a consensus #1 RB after one or two years of being the #1 RB, and naturally each one failed to retain that position as the #1 RB. Not letting go and not being able to realize that even these guys are human and will in fact decline is formula for failure.

Each of these guys had a sudden drop-off from RB#1 to at least RB#10 or lower. Of course using hindsight, it's easy to see when that happened. But you're trying to predict when that will happen to LT and in the meantime you already missed out a RB#1 finish this year (and a RB#3 finish next year or whatever).

 

[Maroney=Speed]

He'll be 29? So what?

The RB cutoff is 30+, not "gonna be 29." I'll reject that point outright. The nagging injuries, OTOH, combined with his first real knee injury ever, are valid reasons to be concerned.

So wait until he is 30/31 until you trade him? Didnt work so good for the SA, Holmes and Faulk owners over the last few years.

No - read on, B.S. The injuries are a concern."Gonna be 29" in June is irrelevant to him finishing in the top-5. When he was 29, Holmes finished as the #1 back. SA is not a decent analogy (IMO) because he gave up after he got the fat contract. But you have a point with Faulk (dropped from 1 to 14 and never finished higher than that).

Regardless, I can find plenty of former top-5 backs who were still top-5 as 29 year olds. It simply is not the dropoff - 30 is.

But the count down starts, and I think the poster is pointing this out.LT will continue the free fall, and it begins next year.

 

[ceo3west]

Good topic. Knowing when to let go is always difficult - I remember when M Faulk was king of the hill for a few years, and I drafted him #1 the year he started to decline. The lesson I learned after that is I would rather take a safer player on the upswing whose best years are ahead of him, instead of gambling on a guy who has been on top for a few years but whose best years are PROBABLY behind him. Next year I would probably take guys like ADP or S Jax ahead of LT, as they fall into this criteria. Leagues cannot be won in the first round, but they can certainly be lost.

So heading into 2007 your thought process would have landed you Larry Johnson or SJax instead of LT. LT outscored both of those guys combined.

I didn't consider Johnson a safe pick this year due to his circumstances. SJax I did consider safe, but fortunately I didn't have to make that choice. I'm not saying it always works out, but what I am saying is that if I'm picking a guy in the top 3 or 5, I want a safer pick, a guy on the upswing. To me, gambling on an older back whose best years are most likely behind him is not a good strategy. See these guys: Emmit Smith, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Shawn Alexander. Each of these was a consensus #1 RB after one or two years of being the #1 RB, and naturally each one failed to retain that position as the #1 RB. Not letting go and not being able to realize that even these guys are human and will in fact decline is formula for failure.

Each of these guys had a sudden drop-off from RB#1 to at least RB#10 or lower. Of course using hindsight, it's easy to see when that happened. But you're trying to predict when that will happen to LT and in the meantime you already missed out a RB#1 finish this year (and a RB#3 finish next year or whatever).

I'd actually like to know this - after an RB finishes the #1 fantasy RB overall, how many more years has each finished in the top 5 thereafter. I'll bet it's not many.Let me ask you this - would you feel comforatble taking LT #1 overall in a redraft next year? I personally would not.

 

[Banger]

He'll be 29? So what?

The RB cutoff is 30+, not "gonna be 29." I'll reject that point outright. The nagging injuries, OTOH, combined with his first real knee injury ever, are valid reasons to be concerned.

So wait until he is 30/31 until you trade him? Didnt work so good for the SA, Holmes and Faulk owners over the last few years.

No - read on, B.S. The injuries are a concern."Gonna be 29" in June is irrelevant to him finishing in the top-5. When he was 29, Holmes finished as the #1 back. SA is not a decent analogy (IMO) because he gave up after he got the fat contract. But you have a point with Faulk (dropped from 1 to 14 and never finished higher than that).

Regardless, I can find plenty of former top-5 backs who were still top-5 as 29 year olds. It simply is not the dropoff - 30 is.

But the count down starts, and I think the poster is pointing this out.LT will continue the free fall, and it begins next year.

This exact thread was posted 3 years ago in regard to his workload, then 2 years ago, then last year, now this year (more than once already). Yes, at some point he won't be the best back in the league but there's nothing to indicate in his play, situation, etc. that indicate a dropoff. I know everyone wants to be the "I called it" guy and at some point you'll be right but I'll trust my eyes at this point as opposed to a stone cold guess by internet posters.ETA...I like the freefall comment, he fell from #1 to ....#1....

 

[Burning Sensation]

He'll be 29? So what?

The RB cutoff is 30+, not "gonna be 29." I'll reject that point outright. The nagging injuries, OTOH, combined with his first real knee injury ever, are valid reasons to be concerned.

So wait until he is 30/31 until you trade him? Didnt work so good for the SA, Holmes and Faulk owners over the last few years.

No - read on, B.S. The injuries are a concern."Gonna be 29" in June is irrelevant to him finishing in the top-5. When he was 29, Holmes finished as the #1 back. SA is not a decent analogy (IMO) because he gave up after he got the fat contract. But you have a point with Faulk (dropped from 1 to 14 and never finished higher than that).

Regardless, I can find plenty of former top-5 backs who were still top-5 as 29 year olds. It simply is not the dropoff - 30 is.

I know that, as does everyone else. That is why i say now is the time to trade him while people know they can still get a year or two out of him. His value has nowhere to go but down from this point forward, and it has the potential to go down fast after the start of next season. If i can get a top 3 pick and a top 5-6 WR for him, i would be all over that right now.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

He'll be 29? So what?

The RB cutoff is 30+, not "gonna be 29." I'll reject that point outright. The nagging injuries, OTOH, combined with his first real knee injury ever, are valid reasons to be concerned.

So wait until he is 30/31 until you trade him? Didnt work so good for the SA, Holmes and Faulk owners over the last few years.

No - read on, B.S. The injuries are a concern."Gonna be 29" in June is irrelevant to him finishing in the top-5. When he was 29, Holmes finished as the #1 back. SA is not a decent analogy (IMO) because he gave up after he got the fat contract. But you have a point with Faulk (dropped from 1 to 14 and never finished higher than that).

Regardless, I can find plenty of former top-5 backs who were still top-5 as 29 year olds. It simply is not the dropoff - 30 is.

But the count down starts, and I think the poster is pointing this out.LT will continue the free fall, and it begins next year.

This exact thread was posted 3 years ago in regard to his workload, then 2 years ago, then last year, now this year (more than once already). Yes, at some point he won't be the best back in the league but there's nothing to indicate in his play, situation, etc. that indicate a dropoff. I know everyone wants to be the "I called it" guy and at some point you'll be right but I'll trust my eyes at this point as opposed to a stone cold guess by internet posters.ETA...I like the freefall comment, he fell from #1 to ....#1....

If I was a freind of yours I would bet you 1K, LT is not the #1 back in 2008.Why because 30 years old is where the drop starts or is where a RB is more or less done?

I will go on record right now that LT will not be the #1 ranked RB, next year.

No way no how.

 

[Synthesizer]

I'd actually like to know this - after an RB finishes the #1 fantasy RB overall, how many more years has each finished in the top 5 thereafter. I'll bet it's not many.Let me ask you this - would you feel comforatble taking LT #1 overall in a redraft next year? I personally would not.

I would feel completely comfortable taking LT #1 overall next year. I know the sexy pick will be Peterson, and others will say SJax, Westbrook, or Addai. But I still think Tomlinson has the best shot out of all of those guys to finish as RB#1.Good question about a RB finishing RB#1 and then what happens after that. I know Emmitt finished as RB#1 in 4 straight years, Priest 2 straight years, Faulk 2 straight years, and LT 2 straight years. Each of those 2nd years would count as a top 5 finish.

 

[kevinray]

He'll be 29? So what?

The RB cutoff is 30+, not "gonna be 29." I'll reject that point outright. The nagging injuries, OTOH, combined with his first real knee injury ever, are valid reasons to be concerned.

So wait until he is 30/31 until you trade him? Didnt work so good for the SA, Holmes and Faulk owners over the last few years.

No - read on, B.S. The injuries are a concern."Gonna be 29" in June is irrelevant to him finishing in the top-5. When he was 29, Holmes finished as the #1 back. SA is not a decent analogy (IMO) because he gave up after he got the fat contract. But you have a point with Faulk (dropped from 1 to 14 and never finished higher than that).

Regardless, I can find plenty of former top-5 backs who were still top-5 as 29 year olds. It simply is not the dropoff - 30 is.

But the count down starts, and I think the poster is pointing this out.LT will continue the free fall, and it begins next year.

This exact thread was posted 3 years ago in regard to his workload, then 2 years ago, then last year, now this year (more than once already). Yes, at some point he won't be the best back in the league but there's nothing to indicate in his play, situation, etc. that indicate a dropoff. I know everyone wants to be the "I called it" guy and at some point you'll be right but I'll trust my eyes at this point as opposed to a stone cold guess by internet posters.ETA...I like the freefall comment, he fell from #1 to ....#1....

If I was a freind of yours I would bet you 1K, LT is not the #1 back in 2008.Why because 30 years old is where the drop starts or is where a RB is more or less done?

I will go on record right now that LT will not be the #1 ranked RB, next year.

No way no how.

That’s a pretty easy thing to say. Its hard to be the number one back and LT's only been the #1 back in most systems the past two seasons. What's made LT so great is that he’s been consistently top 3 throughout his career. I really can't see LT not being in the top 10, sans bad injury, and that’s what makes him great cause there aren't to many players you can say that about.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I'd actually like to know this - after an RB finishes the #1 fantasy RB overall, how many more years has each finished in the top 5 thereafter. I'll bet it's not many.Let me ask you this - would you feel comforatble taking LT #1 overall in a redraft next year? I personally would not.

I would feel completely comfortable taking LT #1 overall next year. I know the sexy pick will be Peterson, and others will say SJax, Westbrook, or Addai. But I still think Tomlinson has the best shot out of all of those guys to finish as RB#1.Good question about a RB finishing RB#1 and then what happens after that. I know Emmitt finished as RB#1 in 4 straight years, Priest 2 straight years, Faulk 2 straight years, and LT 2 straight years. Each of those 2nd years would count as a top 5 finish.

I would probably take him #1 overall next year in a redraft, but i couldnt trade him fast enough in a dynasty league right now.

 

[Banger]

He'll be 29? So what?

The RB cutoff is 30+, not "gonna be 29." I'll reject that point outright. The nagging injuries, OTOH, combined with his first real knee injury ever, are valid reasons to be concerned.

So wait until he is 30/31 until you trade him? Didnt work so good for the SA, Holmes and Faulk owners over the last few years.

No - read on, B.S. The injuries are a concern."Gonna be 29" in June is irrelevant to him finishing in the top-5. When he was 29, Holmes finished as the #1 back. SA is not a decent analogy (IMO) because he gave up after he got the fat contract. But you have a point with Faulk (dropped from 1 to 14 and never finished higher than that).

Regardless, I can find plenty of former top-5 backs who were still top-5 as 29 year olds. It simply is not the dropoff - 30 is.

But the count down starts, and I think the poster is pointing this out.LT will continue the free fall, and it begins next year.

This exact thread was posted 3 years ago in regard to his workload, then 2 years ago, then last year, now this year (more than once already). Yes, at some point he won't be the best back in the league but there's nothing to indicate in his play, situation, etc. that indicate a dropoff. I know everyone wants to be the "I called it" guy and at some point you'll be right but I'll trust my eyes at this point as opposed to a stone cold guess by internet posters.ETA...I like the freefall comment, he fell from #1 to ....#1....

If I was a freind of yours I would bet you 1K, LT is not the #1 back in 2008.Why because 30 years old is where the drop starts or is where a RB is more or less done?

I will go on record right now that LT will not be the #1 ranked RB, next year.

No way no how.

I'll bet you $1,000,000,000 he doesn't turn 30 during the season next year. Maybe you should make this post next year.

 

[Marc Levin]

But the count down starts, and I think the poster is pointing this out.LT will continue the free fall, and it begins next year.

No - he said last of his top-5 finishesI'm saying him turning 29 this June is not a valid predictor for him falling out of the top-5 in '08.The injuries, OTOH, are a valid concern. I think only a fool would disagree with the reasonableness of stating "the fall off is coming because he's 29" But, the OP said never another top-5 finish. To that, him turning 29 during TC this year is irrelevant.