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I just have a feeling (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Blackjacks
- Start date
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Each point except the last one in the OP's first post has, IMO, been effectively countered:
1) we have shown that "gonna be 29" means nothing as per top-5 finishes the following year.
2) 100 yard rushing games - LT has never been the rushing god, he is a combined yardage god. He had a rough go yardage wise the first two weeks, he then had a 95 combined yardage, 1 TD game:
- Then three games with over 100 combine yardage
- three games with combined yardage of 97, 77, 91
- his last six regular season games were all for over 100 combined yards.
3) Rivers' ACL - that is just the early part of next year and does not bar LT from "ever" having another top-5 finish
4) nagging injuries - a reasonable concern for LT finishing top-5 next year or thereafter.
IOW, there is little support for saying LT will "never again" be in the top-5.
There are, however, tons of reasons to be concerned as a dynasty owner because those owners need to think about 2009 and 2010, not just '08.
1) we have shown that "gonna be 29" means nothing as per top-5 finishes the following year.
2) 100 yard rushing games - LT has never been the rushing god, he is a combined yardage god. He had a rough go yardage wise the first two weeks, he then had a 95 combined yardage, 1 TD game:
- Then three games with over 100 combine yardage
- three games with combined yardage of 97, 77, 91
- his last six regular season games were all for over 100 combined yards.
3) Rivers' ACL - that is just the early part of next year and does not bar LT from "ever" having another top-5 finish
4) nagging injuries - a reasonable concern for LT finishing top-5 next year or thereafter.
IOW, there is little support for saying LT will "never again" be in the top-5.
There are, however, tons of reasons to be concerned as a dynasty owner because those owners need to think about 2009 and 2010, not just '08.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Just another reason
February 6, 2008, 11:41
Chargers :: RB
Chargers FB Neal Could Be Cap Casualty
Kevin Acee, San Diego Union Tribune - [Full Article]
Chargers FB Lorenzo Neal is 37 years old and due a roster bonus of $4.25 million between 2008 and 2010. Neal, who is also worried about losing even more playing time than he did this season, plans on speaking to HC Norv Turner this week at the Pro Bowl. "I'm a starter," he said. "I understand they've got plays and maybe I can't be out there all the time. But I want to be a starter in this league. I am a starter - if not (in San Diego), then somewhere."
February 6, 2008, 11:41
Chargers :: RB
Chargers FB Neal Could Be Cap Casualty
Kevin Acee, San Diego Union Tribune - [Full Article]
Chargers FB Lorenzo Neal is 37 years old and due a roster bonus of $4.25 million between 2008 and 2010. Neal, who is also worried about losing even more playing time than he did this season, plans on speaking to HC Norv Turner this week at the Pro Bowl. "I'm a starter," he said. "I understand they've got plays and maybe I can't be out there all the time. But I want to be a starter in this league. I am a starter - if not (in San Diego), then somewhere."
Banger
Footballguy
Irrelevant. Neal was a shell of his former self. He's worried about losing playing time because he wasn't nearly as good as he'd been in prior years.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
Are you honestly insinuating that Neal is the reason for Tomlinson's success? He may have contributed to it the past few years, but Tomlinson was already one of the best before Neal ever suited up in the blue and gold.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Not only will he catch, he will smash it
Banger
Footballguy
I don't know. I don't think LT will hang on like Emmit did.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I could see him doing 6 more years, thats all it will take at his current pace.LT wants a SB title more than the rushing yardage mark though. So we'll see.He wont hang on if he has a ring or two though
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I'm not a LT owner, but I do have the utmost respect for what the guy has done. He just doesn't strike me as the Emmitt Smith type. I don't think he'll put his body through that well into his 30s.
If I were a dynasty LT owner I would think this would be the perfect time to sell high. Are you taking a chance of missing a top 5 season next year? Certainly. But if you are getting full value in return, you should have a very good chance at a top 5 season with your new younger player.
I do agree that Shaun Alexander is a bad comparison to LT. He did get softer after the contract and did lose Hutchinson. Those things don't really apply to LT's situation.
I think the best comparison is Marshall Faulk. Both great receiving threats, HOF talents, and their styles protected them from taking a lot of big shots over the years.
At age 29 Faulk was coming off of two consecutive seasons of 2100+ yards and scored 26 and 21 TDs in each of the last two seasons despite only playing in 14 games each year. Awesome.
At 29 Faulk ran into more injury troubles and despite playing in 14 games (only starting 10 of them) he totaled 1490 yards and 10 TDs.
At 30 it fell to 1108 total yards and 11 TDs over 11 games.
At 31 he played in 14 games but only put up 1084 combined yards and 4 TDs.
He lost his starting job at age 32 and retired after a 583 yard 1 TD season.
To me the lesson here is the talent will probably still be there until he's 30+. At some point, and it will probably be soon (this year or next), his body is going to break down. In my mind I don't think there's any question this is your last chance to get great value out of LT2.
If I were a dynasty LT owner I would think this would be the perfect time to sell high. Are you taking a chance of missing a top 5 season next year? Certainly. But if you are getting full value in return, you should have a very good chance at a top 5 season with your new younger player.
I do agree that Shaun Alexander is a bad comparison to LT. He did get softer after the contract and did lose Hutchinson. Those things don't really apply to LT's situation.
I think the best comparison is Marshall Faulk. Both great receiving threats, HOF talents, and their styles protected them from taking a lot of big shots over the years.
At age 29 Faulk was coming off of two consecutive seasons of 2100+ yards and scored 26 and 21 TDs in each of the last two seasons despite only playing in 14 games each year. Awesome.
At 29 Faulk ran into more injury troubles and despite playing in 14 games (only starting 10 of them) he totaled 1490 yards and 10 TDs.
At 30 it fell to 1108 total yards and 11 TDs over 11 games.
At 31 he played in 14 games but only put up 1084 combined yards and 4 TDs.
He lost his starting job at age 32 and retired after a 583 yard 1 TD season.
To me the lesson here is the talent will probably still be there until he's 30+. At some point, and it will probably be soon (this year or next), his body is going to break down. In my mind I don't think there's any question this is your last chance to get great value out of LT2.
This thread reminds me of the scene from Clerks where the guy in the convenient store is starting a ruckus over smoking cigarettes and then is found out to be a gum salesman. I bet Blackjacks just wants someone in his leagues to drop LT so he can swoop him up. It's the oldest trick in the book!BFSI can see the responses already calling me a moron and that's okay, I can take it but here are some reasons to be leary of LT going into next year.1) He'll be 29 next year2) he only had 6 games over 100 yards rushing this year3) Rivers is going to need ACL surgery and should be out until late training camp and maybe early season4) Started seeing some little nagging injuries on him this last yearHe has taken alot of hits over his career and while I love LT for his talent and consistency I just see a downhill sprint starting. Again, I'm ready for the name calling.....call it a just a crazy guess
Pai Mei
Footballguy
Well late 20s-early 30s is right where you expect RBs to decline. But it also would not be that out of the ordinary for him to go at a high level until age 32. That's 3 years - a lifetime in FFL. Of course, you also have kids in the NFL like Lawrence Maroney who won't be 32 until 2017.
pigskin pimp
Footballguy
I've been a huge LT guy and always made sure I had him in my auction league.
That said, I'll let him slide in 2008 if the bidding gets anywhere close to what I've spent on him in the past.
LT has always been a guy who would produce for 16 games, year in, year out.
I know his injury wasn't serious, but I always, ALWAYS, shy away from guys with inury history. And while he has never had an injury-prone label, it just takes one to get the ball rolling.
Wrong side of 20 doesn't help either.
That said, I'll let him slide in 2008 if the bidding gets anywhere close to what I've spent on him in the past.
LT has always been a guy who would produce for 16 games, year in, year out.
I know his injury wasn't serious, but I always, ALWAYS, shy away from guys with inury history. And while he has never had an injury-prone label, it just takes one to get the ball rolling.
Wrong side of 20 doesn't help either.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
How many superstar RBs have been on the correct side of 20?
