I wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 1st...2nd...3rd...4th (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Let's talk because it is going to take me awhile to get anything together for drafting WRs like what I wrote for the RBs. Lot of drafts are going on this weekend and I wanted to make a strong statement about the Arizona passing attack(cough cough) and several of the players involved in this scam...scheme.

1st of all the injury to Fitz is not too bad, sprained MCL but if you watched the play you can clearly see that Fitz is running one of his pattened deep across the middle routes and IMO Leinart doesn't get the ball there fast enough for him and leaves him hanging out to dry. Folks, there is a major dropoff from a HoF QB like Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart. I'm not talking about FF here but more in NFL terms, it simply is not going to be the same.

Fitzgerald IMO is going to fall off the map. Of all the WRs that are taken in the top6-10 spots, he appears to me to have the strongest chances of falling well below where he is being dratfted. I certianly think it's a mistake taking him in the 1st, and I am not even comfortable with him in the middle of the 2nd. You'll laugh but I think Greg Jennings is a safer play this year than Larry Fitzgerald, seriously I'm not kidding. Despite Jennings problems last year he has a great QB throwing him the ball in a pass friendly system where GB should be in playing for the playoffs. I like that situation much better.

Another point I want to make and something that seems really out of whack are people taking Steve Breaston like he is a bargain in the 6th and 7th rounds. Folks, it is not a given that the WR2 spot which Boldin vacated is going to churn out 80-100 catch seasons as it has in the past. Many teams don't have a second WR on their roster that cracks 800 yds outside of their WR1. Why would you want to load up on the Cards passing game this year? Guys taking Early Doucet as well...what are your expectations?

I understand a lot of sites have Fitz as a top3 WR including FBG which I actually think will start to move him down the boards even if nothing else due to this injury but for your own safety I would avoid Fitz at all costs. Too many variables, too many unknowns, and yes he is one of the most talented WRs in the league but even guys that are talented like Randy Moss have had black hole seasons on their resumes. AZ lost a boatload of talent on both sides of the ball this past off season, don't go down with the ship.

I want to thank a good friend who was sitting with me at the bar last night while watching the game and said "MOP(I make my friends call me that ) I have something I have been wanting to say about Fitzgerald." And he went on to say how uncomfortable he was with Fitz even in the 2nd...and it was like opening the flood gates for me because I also have been thinking this for awhile but never verbalized it and I just wanted to thank him. Sometimes it takes a person to trigger an idea that you already had in the back of your mind. I am betting many in here feel the same way and I also bet there are many that think I am off my rocker and didn't take my meds today. I honor both of those thoughts.

If you could, dyansty owners please don't get mad because of this thread. Try and think in terms of 2010 redraft which is what I am focusing on. Also those that traded Fitz and feel good about it, again good for you but I want to focus on upcoming drafts.

What say you?

 

[jdawg]

I will not be drafting him this year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I will not be drafting him this year.

Can I get an Amen?"Amen!"

 

[NajehHejan]

I hear you. I love Fitz as an elite talent but I think his bustability factor is just too high this year. In my keep 2 PPR league, I just traded Fitz for a first round pick. I should be able to land one of Greg Jennings, Roddy White, or Calvin Johnson with that pick, and I feel much better with any of those guys over Fitz. Leinart always scared me but the knee injury pushed me over. I’m concerned he’ll start off slowly.

 

[big0mar]

You realize that if Leinart is as bad as you think he is, Arizona will be playing from behind a lot? I don't think Fitzgerald will be as efficient as he has been, but thats irrelevant in fantasy. He should get points just off sheer volume alone.

 

[KCC]

I couldn't agree more. I also think this means Wells will be overvalued in most drafts since defenses will be far less concerned about the Arizona air game this season and will be able to focus more on stopping the run than they did when Warner was their QB.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I hear you. I love Fitz as an elite talent but I think his bustability factor is just too high this year. In my keep 2 PPR league, I just traded Fitz for a first round pick. I should be able to land one of Greg Jennings, Roddy White, or Calvin Johnson with that pick, and I feel much better with any of those guys over Fitz. Leinart always scared me but the knee injury pushed me over. I'm concerned he'll start off slowly.

The knee injury was icing on the cake. Even in the 3rd round I would lay off him. Will be interesting to see how far he is going to fall in redrafts now.

 

[Clifford]

There is plenty of reason of skepticism in the Cards passing attack and you're not the first person I've seen suggest Fitz is in for a down year.

But the usual rebuttal is multiple cases of WRs who have done really well with worse situations at the QB spot. Calvin in 2008. Smith last year. Etc. Personally I think those are far from the norm enough to be considered outliers.

But it seems you are saying that Fitz should not be taken in the top 6 WRs. Not a stretch by any means

AJ

Austin

Moss

White

Calvin

Jennings

But this thread is kinda nebulous without you making revised projections based on your even gloomier feelings about the Cards.

Also I wouldn't use the "worse on both sides of the ball" argument since getting worse at defense significantly increases Fitz's chances for production. I would use the immense drop off from his 05 season to 06 season, the year Leinart started most games.

 

[Jayrod]

I'd take him as my WR1, but only after a couple of stud RB's. I think he'll play like a 3rd round FF pick, not a 1st rounder. More like WR12 than WR3.

 

[Clifford]

You realize that if Leinart is as bad as you think he is, Arizona will be playing from behind a lot? I don't think Fitzgerald will be as efficient as he has been, but thats irrelevant in fantasy. He should get points just off sheer volume alone.

Also won't play a full season. They will turn over the keys around week 5 if he's positively stinking up the joint.

 

[Koya]

Like anything, it's about value. To say you won't take LFitz int he 4th is a bit laughable though, unless it was hyperbole.

Yes, the passing attack in AZ will suffer without Warner at the Helm - however, a great WR's numbers, imo, are not as impacted by this unless you have a really good running game, because as someone else noted, they will be coming from behind and who else do they have to throw it to that is even close to LFitz? He will get his, health allowing.

Now, do you take a chance on him in the late first or early second? For the reasons you give and others, I won't. But if it's the third round, especially mid third round plus, it would be very, very hard for someone that if healthy will be a top 5 WR by his sheer talent and the number of looks he will receive.

 

[TeamSnooki]

I pick 11th in my 12 team. No Fitz for me unless he drops to 3.11. Didn't really think about him before the knee injury, now it would take a gun to my head.

I guess I'd probably take him in the late 2nd given the chance.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'd love to see you pass on Larry Fitzgerald in the fourth round of a redraft league. It's easy to come out and say you would, because you'd never be faced with that decision.

Go take a look at his schedule. There might be 3 good corners in the lot. Not that it matters. Larry will get his. He's too good not to.

 

[Concept Coop]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired.

I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.

If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.

Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

 

[North]

Had a chance to get him in the 2nd round of my draft wwith AJ, Moss, Wayne and White off the board. I chose Miles instead, too big of a question mark with the QB position IMO. Fitz was the #7 WR taken with CJ going just ahead of him.

 

[big0mar]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired. I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

 

[LawFitz]

My only major concern is Leinart's propensity for the hospital ball (as evidenced by the knee injury). Other than that Fitz will get his. He may not finish in the top 5, but I don't see him falling out of the top 10 WR if he stays upright.

But you'll have to take this with a grain of salt considering my username.

 

[Jayrod]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired.

I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.

If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.

Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

But what about bottom 10 QB's? See Steve Smith (CAR) & Randy Moss for past examples of stud WR's who can't put up numbers due to crap play at QB.

 

[Concept Coop]

There is plenty of reason of skepticism in the Cards passing attack and you're not the first person I've seen suggest Fitz is in for a down year.But the usual rebuttal is multiple cases of WRs who have done really well with worse situations at the QB spot. Calvin in 2008. Smith last year. Etc. Personally I think those are far from the norm enough to be considered outliers.But it seems you are saying that Fitz should not be taken in the top 6 WRs. Not a stretch by any meansAJAustinMossWhiteCalvinJenningsBut this thread is kinda nebulous without you making revised projections based on your even gloomier feelings about the Cards.Also I wouldn't use the "worse on both sides of the ball" argument since getting worse at defense significantly increases Fitz's chances for production. I would use the immense drop off from his 05 season to 06 season, the year Leinart started most games.

It really is a stretch.Af- Of courseMoss - Okay.White - Ryan is very overrated and he is rarely consistant. Gives you nothing too often.Calvin - Silly. Stafford is no reason to draft a WR over Larry. The Lions offense sucks. Larry is the better player. NO reason to take Calvin over Larry.Austin - Those that watched Austin a lot last year realize how risky he is. He made a lot of routine plays that turned out to 70 yard TDs. He had never done that before and I don't know how often he can do that in the future. The Dallas offense had no other threats and had to force it to him. Dallas now has Felix and Bryant. Miles will not get the same number of targets. I also doubt that will be running that WR hitch as often with all the weapons they now have. Silly.Jennings - Silly. His QB went crazy and he still had a down year. I don't count on GB relying that much on Rogers again in the near future. Not if they want to win. They are going to have to run the ball more.

 

[Multiple Scores]

If lienart is as bad as I think he will be then I gotta agree with the OP.

 

[Gopher State]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired. I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

I hope also grasshopper, that you are in some of my leagues. Good luck with Friz, but they will be dialing 911 in AZ by week 4.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There is plenty of reason of skepticism in the Cards passing attack and you're not the first person I've seen suggest Fitz is in for a down year.But the usual rebuttal is multiple cases of WRs who have done really well with worse situations at the QB spot. Calvin in 2008. Smith last year. Etc. Personally I think those are far from the norm enough to be considered outliers.But it seems you are saying that Fitz should not be taken in the top 6 WRs. Not a stretch by any meansAJAustinMossWhiteCalvinJenningsBut this thread is kinda nebulous without you making revised projections based on your even gloomier feelings about the Cards.Also I wouldn't use the "worse on both sides of the ball" argument since getting worse at defense significantly increases Fitz's chances for production. I would use the immense drop off from his 05 season to 06 season, the year Leinart started most games.

I would list a few more WRs after the top 6 that I would still draft ahead of him. Fitz is like bait in these drafts right now. Sharks don't go for bait, they go for real meals. What I'm saying is Fitz has become the guy that every owner has to look at and mutter to themselves "Well, he is value here, he was going int he 1st a week ago." I'm saying don't take the bait unless you want to end up in a picture with Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley titled "Gone Fishin." Not all bad defenses make for great offesnes. Sometimes you are absolutely right however when a defense cannot stop the run the offense sits for long periods of time on the sidelines. And let's assume they fall behind 10-0 and start to throw the ball more, now the opposing defense can pin their ears back and go after the QB many times causing a 3 and out and back to the bench for the offense. How much time of possession do you think AZ is going to win this season? Good post

 

[Concept Coop]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired.

I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.

If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.

Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

But what about bottom 10 QB's? See Steve Smith (CAR) & Randy Moss for past examples of stud WR's who can't put up numbers due to crap play at QB.

Look at Smith's number last year with Moore. They were really good. He was hurt, but when healthy, his numbers were great.As for Moss, this Arizona team is not that Raiders team. Moss gave up, Fitz won't. Oakland had nothing to play for, Arizona will. Arizona can stay balanced and they have a defense that will keep them out of too many bad situations.

Not to mention that Lienarts back up threw 16 TDs to Braylon Edwards 3 years ago.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired.

I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.

If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.

Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

1. The OL...here is what I wrote back in July from an article you can find on FBG.Levi Brown will shift from RT to LT and that's not good. He surrendered nine sacks from the RT spot last season, committed 11 penalties and allowed 28 QB pressures. If Leinart is starting at QB, that might be best since Brown is not a top tier tackle in the NFL. The RT spot which would be Leinart's blind spot as he's a lefty will be a camp battle between Brandon Keith who has no starts in the NFL under his belt, and Jeremy Bridges who was a guard and started 24 games for Carolina before coming to Arizona. Always remember that the tackle position along the OL typically impacts the passing game the most. A veteran like Kurt Warner could probably manage the heat a lot better than Leinart so the outlook right now cannot be too high despite some serious weapons at his disposal.

The inside of the OL is built to pound the football and Arizona actually has some beef inside this year. The Cardinals have brought in Alan Faneca to play LG and despite his pass blocking problems the past couple of years he still can line up and maul in the run game which looks like the plan here. Faneca will help elevate the run game. Deuce Lutui returns at RG, and improved a lot last year as he cut his penalties from 13 in 2008 to only four last season and allowed only two sacks. Lyle Sendlein rounds out the interior of this OL and he ranks in the bottom third of the league. Hopefully Faneca lining up to his left will help him run block better. There is some depth here with Rex Hadnot and Reggie Wells who both have starting experience and come off the bench to relieve Faneca who is getting mighty old.

Bottom Line

This OL is not strong, but it appears to be built a little better for the run vs. the pass.

2. I would rather draft WRs that are on high octane offenses even if they dipped in 2009. I don't view AZ as a high powered offesne anymore so I guess we will disagree on that.

Nice post

 

[Concept Coop]

I see where you guys are coming from. That said, Fitz is one of the top 10 players in the NFL. I think he is going to get his. He is not the type of WR that needs to be wide open to do damage. The offensive line is above average, and that is all he really needs. Not only that, but Warner was not a HOF based on his play last year. His deep ball left plenty to be desired. I can see passing on him in the 1st round. But 2nd?! After guys like Jennings, WHite, Johnson?! Really? Be my guest. But Jennings isn't close to the football player that Fitz is and had a down year, while his QB went insane racking up number. White needs Ryan to step it up big time, and that is far from a sure things. Calvin Johnson? Really? How much better is Stafford than Leinart? We don't know, and it won't be much, if any. Fitz is just a better football player than Calvin is at this point, and most likely ever will be. The Cards offense will still be able to move the ball better than the Lions too.If you guys are going to draft WRs based on their QBs, you are in for a down year. FBG did a study on top WRs and it was surprising how many top 10 WRs did NOT have top 10 QBs.Again, be my guest. I hope you play in a few of my leauges.

I hope also grasshopper, that you are in some of my leagues. Good luck with Friz, but they will be dialing 911 in AZ by week 4.

Based on what? Your intricate knowledge of Matt Lienart and how he will perform in 10-11? Good football teams can mask at below average NFL QB. It happens every single season. No only that, but we are talking about fantasy football. Let them call 911 and keep tossing it Fitz's way. Who cares? Their offense is going to be better balanced than it has been in quite some time. It doesn't take a HOF QB to get the ball to Larry's hands. And it will be in Larry's hands a lot.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

If Leinart is as bad as some people are predicting, I take that as a good sign for Fitzgerald's fantasy prospects. How many time have we seen an average to bad QB completely lock onto their best WR. Fitz is so dominant that he presents a great target for a QB to throw to, and a QB who is struggling would likely try to force the ball to him as often as he could. Not to mention the absolute CAKE schedule the Cards have this year. Would I take Fitz as the #1 WR off the board? No. But saying you wouldn't touch him until the 5th round is hyperbole that makes your entire argument look stupid IMO.

 

[Exit 1]

Yes, he's a player I'm avoiding too.

 

[LawFitz]

I would use the immense drop off from his 05 season to 06 season, the year Leinart started most games.

Fitz missed three games that year due to injury. Prorated over 16 games his stats would've been 85/1164/7.4. Sounds about right for his expectations for this season. And this comes with upside if either Leinart or Anderson can perform better than we're predicting (not out of the question).

 

[Clifford]

Like anything, it's about value. To say you won't take LFitz int he 4th is a bit laughable though, unless it was hyperbole. Yes, the passing attack in AZ will suffer without Warner at the Helm - however, a great WR's numbers, imo, are not as impacted by this unless you have a really good running game, because as someone else noted, they will be coming from behind and who else do they have to throw it to that is even close to LFitz? He will get his, health allowing.Now, do you take a chance on him in the late first or early second? For the reasons you give and others, I won't. But if it's the third round, especially mid third round plus, it would be very, very hard for someone that if healthy will be a top 5 WR by his sheer talent and the number of looks he will receive.

I don't think it's hyperbole. Leinart played 12 games his rookie season (06-07) and was the starter for all but one. Fizt had 103 and 1409-10 in 05-06 (his second season). In 06-07 he got 63-946-6. That's going from top five to the 15-20 range. If that dropoff happens again, he shouldn't be taken before the 4-5th.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There is plenty of reason of skepticism in the Cards passing attack and you're not the first person I've seen suggest Fitz is in for a down year.But the usual rebuttal is multiple cases of WRs who have done really well with worse situations at the QB spot. Calvin in 2008. Smith last year. Etc. Personally I think those are far from the norm enough to be considered outliers.But it seems you are saying that Fitz should not be taken in the top 6 WRs. Not a stretch by any meansAJAustinMossWhiteCalvinJenningsBut this thread is kinda nebulous without you making revised projections based on your even gloomier feelings about the Cards.Also I wouldn't use the "worse on both sides of the ball" argument since getting worse at defense significantly increases Fitz's chances for production. I would use the immense drop off from his 05 season to 06 season, the year Leinart started most games.

It really is a stretch.Af- Of courseMoss - Okay.White - Ryan is very overrated and he is rarely consistant. Gives you nothing too often.Calvin - Silly. Stafford is no reason to draft a WR over Larry. The Lions offense sucks. Larry is the better player. NO reason to take Calvin over Larry.Austin - Those that watched Austin a lot last year realize how risky he is. He made a lot of routine plays that turned out to 70 yard TDs. He had never done that before and I don't know how often he can do that in the future. The Dallas offense had no other threats and had to force it to him. Dallas now has Felix and Bryant. Miles will not get the same number of targets. I also doubt that will be running that WR hitch as often with all the weapons they now have. Silly.Jennings - Silly. His QB went crazy and he still had a down year. I don't count on GB relying that much on Rogers again in the near future. Not if they want to win. They are going to have to run the ball more.

Roddy WHite IIRC has something like 3 years in a row of 1,000-1,200 yds, maybe 80-85+ receptions too, he's been very consistent IMO. Calvin is a guy that I just feel has the tools to be the next Rnady Moss. I wouldn't say that about most WRs and that doesn't make Calvin the best prospect either, but I see a lot of similarities in their game. And the Detroit offense you smashed is not as bad as you think it is. They have upgraded everywhere including the OL, TE, WR2, and RB...they are going to be better although it may take some time to put it all together. Miles Austin was making plays before last season but had injuries and also was having a hard time cracking the line up. But Romo was always looking for him when he was on the field. And I like Jennings to bounce back but I understand what you are saying.

 

[cubbie5150]

I'm only willing to go as far as to say that I won't take him in the 1st round of my .5 PPR 12 team redraft. After that, it depends.... I won't target players & I won't blacklist players either; it's too restraining.

 

[LawFitz]

I don't think it's hyperbole. Leinart played 12 games his rookie season (06-07) and was the starter for all but one. Fizt had 103 and 1409-10 in 05-06 (his second season). In 06-07 he got 63-946-6. That's going from top five to the 15-20 range. If that dropoff happens again, he shouldn't be taken before the 4-5th.

So I guess you're a. predicting that Fitz will miss three games this year due to injury; andb. that Leinart will be no better than he was as a rookie.Stat comparisons like that without context can be very deceiving.

 

[Clifford]

I would use the immense drop off from his 05 season to 06 season, the year Leinart started most games.

Fitz missed three games that year due to injury. Prorated over 16 games his stats would've been 85/1164/7.4. Sounds about right for his expectations for this season. And this comes with upside if either Leinart or Anderson can perform better than we're predicting (not out of the question).

Not that simple. Warner played weeks 1-4 and weeks 16-17. 447 of his yards and 3 of his 6 TDs came with Warner under center. And he actually played decent with Leinart under center for the five weeks he was active. Here's the recap from the game where he swapped places with Warner. Kinda interesting reading:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/recap;_ylt=ArH...gid=20061008022

 

[cvnpoka]

lol at not taking fitz in the 3rd or 4th.

 

[Clifford]

I don't think it's hyperbole. Leinart played 12 games his rookie season (06-07) and was the starter for all but one. Fizt had 103 and 1409-10 in 05-06 (his second season). In 06-07 he got 63-946-6. That's going from top five to the 15-20 range. If that dropoff happens again, he shouldn't be taken before the 4-5th.

So I guess you're a. predicting that Fitz will miss three games this year due to injury; andb. that Leinart will be no better than he was as a rookie.Stat comparisons like that without context can be very deceiving.

I'm not predicting anything, and thanks for pointing out he was out for three games. I made a mental note to check that and forgot.Just saying there is some historical precedent for a dropoff, but the more I looked at the numbers I don't see as much reason for pessimism. Fitz didn't play at his usual consistency, but he didn't drop off the face of the earth either. I really don't have a dog in this fight (cept I would love to see Leinart fail because I have Anderson and Skelton in dynasty).To round out the picture, here are Fitz's totals from more recent seasons when Leinart started2009:Nov 29: 4 for 342007: Sep 10: 3 for 20Sep 16: 7 for 87So I think while it's a bit unreasonable to say Fitz will not be startable, there is good reason to be skeptical of whether you will really be getting WR1 production (and more importantly consistency) from him this year.

 

[abe froman]

Ill take him and run late 2nd early third.. too much speculation for a guy that is a proven stud at WR position.. Yes Warner is gone, There are many great WR's that put up big numbers with sketchy QB play. I think the loss of Boldin does alot to close the Warner/Leinart swap with added looks, and no I dont buy that Boldins production will be passed to Breaston/Doucet only. A case could be made to take a few WR's ahead of him certainly, but Jennings-no; and Id rather gamble on Fitz than Austin repeating last year with Dez there now. Id take only Moss, Marshall, and maybe R.White in a PPR over Fitz as Im undecided on Wayne this year possibly starting his decline. Calvin is in a great position but Id bet he doesnt out produce Fitz or the other 3 I mentioned, all may very well end up close. Obviously AJ on another platform by himself..

 

[Concept Coop]

There is plenty of reason of skepticism in the Cards passing attack and you're not the first person I've seen suggest Fitz is in for a down year.But the usual rebuttal is multiple cases of WRs who have done really well with worse situations at the QB spot. Calvin in 2008. Smith last year. Etc. Personally I think those are far from the norm enough to be considered outliers.But it seems you are saying that Fitz should not be taken in the top 6 WRs. Not a stretch by any meansAJAustinMossWhiteCalvinJenningsBut this thread is kinda nebulous without you making revised projections based on your even gloomier feelings about the Cards.Also I wouldn't use the "worse on both sides of the ball" argument since getting worse at defense significantly increases Fitz's chances for production. I would use the immense drop off from his 05 season to 06 season, the year Leinart started most games.

It really is a stretch.Af- Of courseMoss - Okay.White - Ryan is very overrated and he is rarely consistant. Gives you nothing too often.Calvin - Silly. Stafford is no reason to draft a WR over Larry. The Lions offense sucks. Larry is the better player. NO reason to take Calvin over Larry.Austin - Those that watched Austin a lot last year realize how risky he is. He made a lot of routine plays that turned out to 70 yard TDs. He had never done that before and I don't know how often he can do that in the future. The Dallas offense had no other threats and had to force it to him. Dallas now has Felix and Bryant. Miles will not get the same number of targets. I also doubt that will be running that WR hitch as often with all the weapons they now have. Silly.Jennings - Silly. His QB went crazy and he still had a down year. I don't count on GB relying that much on Rogers again in the near future. Not if they want to win. They are going to have to run the ball more.

Roddy WHite IIRC has something like 3 years in a row of 1,000-1,200 yds, maybe 80-85+ receptions too, he's been very consistent IMO. Calvin is a guy that I just feel has the tools to be the next Rnady Moss. I wouldn't say that about most WRs and that doesn't make Calvin the best prospect either, but I see a lot of similarities in their game. And the Detroit offense you smashed is not as bad as you think it is. They have upgraded everywhere including the OL, TE, WR2, and RB...they are going to be better although it may take some time to put it all together. Miles Austin was making plays before last season but had injuries and also was having a hard time cracking the line up. But Romo was always looking for him when he was on the field. And I like Jennings to bounce back but I understand what you are saying.

I am referring to Roddy's game to game stats. And, after looking, I overstated that fact. Not what I was expecting to see. Calvin has the tools to be Randy Moss?! What tools? He is not as fast or explosive as Moss, he is not the leaper Moss is and doesn't have the hands that Moss has. Moss is the best WR in history in my book (that is another thread). Calvin has been getting by on his pre-draft hype and one good season. He did not look very special last year. There is NO reason to believe he is a better buy than Fitz this season. It WILL take time to put it together. Why would you expect him to bounce back? Just because? It is not like he was injured. He was playing in one of the most explosive offenses as a true #1. Hell, Colston is a safer play if we are going to take our gut feelings out of the equation.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Jennings over Fitz....that's funny.

1) GB spreads the ball around..Finley, Jennings, Driver, Nelson, James Jones, Donald Lee, Spencer Havner, Kuhn, Grant, Jackson......Rodgers will throw it to anyone or run it. Leinart can't run....and Fitz is the #1 target no matter what. Fitz also doesn't have to deal with Boldin now.

2) GB is a better football team than Arizona. Therefore will be up in more games and more likely to not play catch-up and pass like Arizona will have to.

3) Fitz is a better football player. Fitz has had 4 seasons over 1,000 yards and over 96 catches and 10 TD's or more. Jennings has 2 seasons over 1000, 1 season 10 TD's or more and his highest reception total is 80.

4) Size...Fitz is more of a Redzone target than Jennings. In FF that means many more points(Moss, AJ, CJ2, Fitz, Marshall, TO, Sidney Rice, Roddy, etc).

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I am referring to Roddy's game to game stats. And, after looking, I overstated that fact. Not what I was expecting to see. Calvin has the tools to be Randy Moss?! What tools? He is not as fast or explosive as Moss, he is not the leaper Moss is and doesn't have the hands that Moss has. Moss is the best WR in history in my book (that is another thread). Calvin has been getting by on his pre-draft hype and one good season. He did not look very special last year. There is NO reason to believe he is a better buy than Fitz this season. It WILL take time to put it together. Why would you expect him to bounce back? Just because? It is not like he was injured. He was playing in one of the most explosive offenses as a true #1. Hell, Colston is a safer play if we are going to take our gut feelings out of the equation.

I believe it came out that Greg Jennings was injured last year but played thru it. I could be wrong but I thought I was reading that somewhere.And Calvin despite not living up to his draft spot last year was still in the 15-20 range. He died when CPepp was the QB, but seemed to do alright with Staffors. Again I might be looking thru the MOP rose colored glasses. I have man love for Calvin as painful as that is to admit. I really like your enthusiasm CC, all good stuff.

 

[LawFitz]

I would use the immense drop off from his 05 season to 06 season, the year Leinart started most games.

Fitz missed three games that year due to injury. Prorated over 16 games his stats would've been 85/1164/7.4. Sounds about right for his expectations for this season. And this comes with upside if either Leinart or Anderson can perform better than we're predicting (not out of the question).

Not that simple. Warner played weeks 1-4 and weeks 16-17. 447 of his yards and 3 of his 6 TDs came with Warner under center. And he actually played decent with Leinart under center for the five weeks he was active. Here's the recap from the game where he swapped places with Warner. Kinda interesting reading:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/recap;_ylt=ArH...gid=20061008022

So what you're saying is that Warner played in 6 of the 13 games Fitz played in that year and accounted for about half his stats. Mind bending!

 

[LawFitz]

Here's the recap from the game where he swapped places with Warner. Kinda interesting reading:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/recap;_ylt=ArH...gid=20061008022

Reading that recap reminded me that Fitz pretty much missed all of that game, so it was more like four games missed that year, rather than three. Just some additional food for thought for all of you doom and gloomers.

 

[Warrior]

Drafte Roddy White over him in the mid 2nd...tempted to take Fitz based on the FBG consensus but I think this is one area where I also disagree with them...Fitz is overrated this year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

HiJack my own thread on Calvin...Stafford played games 1-4 and 7-12, let's look at Calvin and remember that Staff was a rookie.

Week 1: 3/90

Week 2: 5/51-Td

Week 3: 5/49

Week 4: 8/133

Week7: Calvin was out

Week8: 2/27...Calvin was still hurting

Week9: 8/84

week 10: 7/161/Td

week11: 2/10/Td

Week12: 6/123/TD

He racked up 46/720/4 Tds in 8-9 games with a rookie throwing him the ball?

FULL HIJACK IN PROGRESS...PLEASE KEEP ALL ARMS AND LEGS INSIDE THE VEHICLE AT ALL TIMES

Would that amount to roughly 85/1400/8 Tds over the course of the full season with Stafford under Center?

 

[Shutout]

This is LAUGHABLE!

The regular season can truly not come quick enough.

Talk about an over reaction of epic proportions.

Ok, here's the REALITY in all this.

1) That big drop off that is being mentioned in '06: He only played 12 games that year. I know, it says 13 officially but he got hurt the week before the Chiefs games and played very little in that game and had two catches. He wasn't really involved in the game at all. So basically, he played in 12 games. Pro-rate the production over 16 games and Fitz was Fitz, even with Leinart.

2) Speaking of Leinart. Look at the games Leinart and Fitz played together. You may be surprised to see that the actual production is miniscule at best. Fitz's productivity lessened with Leinart by about .6 catches a game/1 TD per year...nothing. And that was when Leinart had less experience and the Cardinals were A LOT worse.

3) You watch one pre-season play and automatically predict that Leinart is going to get his WR killed? Do you not see, that on EVERY SINGLE WEEK in the NFL, the number of NAME QBs that throw the ball to WRs that get hit hard? Its called "going across the middle in the NFL". DId Leinart get 3 other WRS knocked out too? No. If he really WAS doing that, do you think their coaches would let Leinart play? Are they dumb enough to see that happen and think "its ok if I let my all-world WR get killed because of Leinart"? C'mon.

4) Why on Earth would you say "because a QB is this, Fitz will be that"? I don't remember Kyle Orton being Tom Brady last year, yet Brandon Marshall did pretty good. I don't recall WRoddy WHite having a terrible year when Matt Ryan was a totally unknown rookie. How many no name QBs has Calvin Johnson had? And didn't he actually have his worst year with the supposed "best" QB talent?

You get the point? You talk of Fitz as if he's a one hit wonder that needed Warner but the facts are he has never had a bad year and has actually been a top 3 for the last four. He has succeeded regardless of Warner, Leinart, McCown, or any other scrub they had in there that I have forgotten. Warner was great and I loved him but Warner benefited from Fitz every bit as much as Fitz benefited from Warner. Remember, Warner RE-ESTABLISHED his level of play AFTER coming to Arizona: Fitz has been great since day 1...on a bad team at times.

Its rediculous for anyone to say that they would pass on Fitz 3-4 timese before taking him..its absolutely ludacrious to think there are 10+ WRS that should be taken before him. A lot of you may SAY you'd pass on him multiple times in your draft this year but I would really like to see what you'd do when you're sitting there. I know what I would do: A)Invite you into every league I have and B)Laugh you out of the league at the end of the year.

Go ahead and overreact (this has got to be one of the best ones I have seen in years). I hope I can keep from laughing out loud when you pass over Fitz (you know, there's a reason some guys are universally known by one name) and take Victor Cruz..after all, didn't he have a great game last night? Per your logic, that's THE measure of all things to come.

Good grief.

 

[Exit 1]

This is LAUGHABLE!

The regular season can truly not come quick enough.

Talk about an over reaction of epic proportions.

Ok, here's the REALITY in all this.

1) That big drop off that is being mentioned in '06: He only played 12 games that year. I know, it says 13 officially but he got hurt the week before the Chiefs games and played very little in that game and had two catches. He wasn't really involved in the game at all. So basically, he played in 12 games. Pro-rate the production over 16 games and Fitz was Fitz, even with Leinart.

2) Speaking of Leinart. Look at the games Leinart and Fitz played together. You may be surprised to see that the actual production is miniscule at best. Fitz's productivity lessened with Leinart by about .6 catches a game/1 TD per year...nothing. And that was when Leinart had less experience and the Cardinals were A LOT worse.

3) You watch one pre-season play and automatically predict that Leinart is going to get his WR killed? Do you not see, that on EVERY SINGLE WEEK in the NFL, the number of NAME QBs that throw the ball to WRs that get hit hard? Its called "going across the middle in the NFL". DId Leinart get 3 other WRS knocked out too? No. If he really WAS doing that, do you think their coaches would let Leinart play? Are they dumb enough to see that happen and think "its ok if I let my all-world WR get killed because of Leinart"? C'mon.

4) Why on Earth would you say "because a QB is this, Fitz will be that"? I don't remember Kyle Orton being Tom Brady last year, yet Brandon Marshall did pretty good. I don't recall WRoddy WHite having a terrible year when Matt Ryan was a totally unknown rookie. How many no name QBs has Calvin Johnson had? And didn't he actually have his worst year with the supposed "best" QB talent?

You get the point? You talk of Fitz as if he's a one hit wonder that needed Warner but the facts are he has never had a bad year and has actually been a top 3 for the last four. He has succeeded regardless of Warner, Leinart, McCown, or any other scrub they had in there that I have forgotten. Warner was great and I loved him but Warner benefited from Fitz every bit as much as Fitz benefited from Warner. Remember, Warner RE-ESTABLISHED his level of play AFTER coming to Arizona: Fitz has been great since day 1...on a bad team at times.

Its rediculous for anyone to say that they would pass on Fitz 3-4 timese before taking him..its absolutely ludacrious to think there are 10+ WRS that should be taken before him. A lot of you may SAY you'd pass on him multiple times in your draft this year but I would really like to see what you'd do when you're sitting there. I know what I would do: A)Invite you into every league I have and B)Laugh you out of the league at the end of the year.

Go ahead and overreact (this has got to be one of the best ones I have seen in years). I hope I can keep from laughing out loud when you pass over Fitz (you know, there's a reason some guys are universally known by one name) and take Victor Cruz..after all, didn't he have a great game last night? Per your logic, that's THE measure of all things to come.

Good grief.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

Let's talk because it is going to take me awhile to get anything together for drafting WRs like what I wrote for the RBs. Lot of drafts are going on this weekend and I wanted to make a strong statement about the Arizona passing attack(cough cough) and several of the players involved in this scam...scheme.

1st of all the injury to Fitz is not too bad, sprained MCL but if you watched the play you can clearly see that Fitz is running one of his pattened deep across the middle routes and IMO Leinart doesn't get the ball there fast enough for him and leaves him hanging out to dry. Folks, there is a major dropoff from a HoF QB like Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart. I'm not talking about FF here but more in NFL terms, it simply is not going to be the same.

Fitzgerald IMO is going to fall off the map. Of all the WRs that are taken in the top6-10 spots, he appears to me to have the strongest chances of falling well below where he is being dratfted. I certianly think it's a mistake taking him in the 1st, and I am not even comfortable with him in the middle of the 2nd. You'll laugh but I think Greg Jennings is a safer play this year than Larry Fitzgerald, seriously I'm not kidding. Despite Jennings problems last year he has a great QB throwing him the ball in a pass friendly system where GB should be in playing for the playoffs. I like that situation much better.

Another point I want to make and something that seems really out of whack are people taking Steve Breaston like he is a bargain in the 6th and 7th rounds. Folks, it is not a given that the WR2 spot which Boldin vacated is going to churn out 80-100 catch seasons as it has in the past. Many teams don't have a second WR on their roster that cracks 800 yds outside of their WR1. Why would you want to load up on the Cards passing game this year? Guys taking Early Doucet as well...what are your expectations?

I understand a lot of sites have Fitz as a top3 WR including FBG which I actually think will start to move him down the boards even if nothing else due to this injury but for your own safety I would avoid Fitz at all costs. Too many variables, too many unknowns, and yes he is one of the most talented WRs in the league but even guys that are talented like Randy Moss have had black hole seasons on their resumes. AZ lost a boatload of talent on both sides of the ball this past off season, don't go down with the ship.

I want to thank a good friend who was sitting with me at the bar last night while watching the game and said "MOP(I make my friends call me that ) I have something I have been wanting to say about Fitzgerald." And he went on to say how uncomfortable he was with Fitz even in the 2nd...and it was like opening the flood gates for me because I also have been thinking this for awhile but never verbalized it and I just wanted to thank him. Sometimes it takes a person to trigger an idea that you already had in the back of your mind. I am betting many in here feel the same way and I also bet there are many that think I am off my rocker and didn't take my meds today. I honor both of those thoughts.

If you could, dyansty owners please don't get mad because of this thread. Try and think in terms of 2010 redraft which is what I am focusing on. Also those that traded Fitz and feel good about it, again good for you but I want to focus on upcoming drafts.

What say you?

I've been thinking the same thing and haven't been saying it because I haven't wanted his perceived value to drop. I like people taking him in the first and second.But now that my two main drafts are over, yes, I agree with you on all three Arizona guys...at least in redraft.

 

[LawFitz]

Would that amount to roughly 85/1400/8 Tds over the course of the full season with Stafford under Center?

It could. Calvin's talent is unparalleled. That said, he is terribly misused. How many times do we have to see him run that freakin end around?!?I don't like predicting injury, but Calvin's risk in that regard is higher than most.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This is LAUGHABLE!

The regular season can truly not come quick enough.

Talk about an over reaction of epic proportions.

Ok, here's the REALITY in all this.

1) That big drop off that is being mentioned in '06: He only played 12 games that year. I know, it says 13 officially but he got hurt the week before the Chiefs games and played very little in that game and had two catches. He wasn't really involved in the game at all. So basically, he played in 12 games. Pro-rate the production over 16 games and Fitz was Fitz, even with Leinart.

2) Speaking of Leinart. Look at the games Leinart and Fitz played together. You may be surprised to see that the actual production is miniscule at best. Fitz's productivity lessened with Leinart by about .6 catches a game/1 TD per year...nothing. And that was when Leinart had less experience and the Cardinals were A LOT worse.

3) You watch one pre-season play and automatically predict that Leinart is going to get his WR killed? Do you not see, that on EVERY SINGLE WEEK in the NFL, the number of NAME QBs that throw the ball to WRs that get hit hard? Its called "going across the middle in the NFL". DId Leinart get 3 other WRS knocked out too? No. If he really WAS doing that, do you think their coaches would let Leinart play? Are they dumb enough to see that happen and think "its ok if I let my all-world WR get killed because of Leinart"? C'mon.

4) Why on Earth would you say "because a QB is this, Fitz will be that"? I don't remember Kyle Orton being Tom Brady last year, yet Brandon Marshall did pretty good. I don't recall WRoddy WHite having a terrible year when Matt Ryan was a totally unknown rookie. How many no name QBs has Calvin Johnson had? And didn't he actually have his worst year with the supposed "best" QB talent?

You get the point? You talk of Fitz as if he's a one hit wonder that needed Warner but the facts are he has never had a bad year and has actually been a top 3 for the last four. He has succeeded regardless of Warner, Leinart, McCown, or any other scrub they had in there that I have forgotten. Warner was great and I loved him but Warner benefited from Fitz every bit as much as Fitz benefited from Warner. Remember, Warner RE-ESTABLISHED his level of play AFTER coming to Arizona: Fitz has been great since day 1...on a bad team at times.

Its rediculous for anyone to say that they would pass on Fitz 3-4 timese before taking him..its absolutely ludacrious to think there are 10+ WRS that should be taken before him. A lot of you may SAY you'd pass on him multiple times in your draft this year but I would really like to see what you'd do when you're sitting there. I know what I would do: A)Invite you into every league I have and B)Laugh you out of the league at the end of the year.

Go ahead and overreact (this has got to be one of the best ones I have seen in years). I hope I can keep from laughing out loud when you pass over Fitz (you know, there's a reason some guys are universally known by one name) and take Victor Cruz..after all, didn't he have a great game last night? Per your logic, that's THE measure of all things to come.

Good grief.

I'm not laughing at you but you made a great post. It's wonderful when someone can make you laugh at yourself even when they think you're nuts. You have some valid points and I like what you said about Kurt Warner establishing himself again when he came over form New York, that's very hard to disagree with so big points there.

OK, if he's there in the mid 4th I might rethink my position but you and I both know that someone will grab him on the 1/2 turn in almost every draft. I won't be that guy so in theory he likely will never hit a spot where I truly have to question whether I should grab him or not...we'll find out tonight in US10 as now the news is settling in about his MCL etc...we'll see.

Great post, please frequent and post more often

 

[Instinctive]

Drafted last night, 14 teams, QB happy scoring, 0.5 ppr

I had 3 shots at Fitz and passed on all 3. I took the first two wideouts in Andre and Moss, then Roddy in the 3rd round. The next guy took good ol Fitz.

So, I passed on him even as my WR3. I think he's about 8th or 9th for me this season, though dynasty he's still my #3 behind Andre and Roddy.

 

[Exit 1]

Sorry, but when a guy is going in the top 3 rounds and he's entering the season with a knee sprain, I'm avoiding him at all costs.