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Iceman's 2020 Draft Tiers (Post Draft - Complete) (1 Viewer)

He has downgraded Jeudy and Lamb due to their size. Earlier in the thread he mentioned:

Lamb and Jeudy fall into this category based on information we have today. Jeudy has the same body frame as Marquise Brown...
OMG.   Sometimes it's best to go with what you know about a player. .  When Jeudy is the next Marvin Harrison and Bryan Edwards or Donovan Peoples-Jones is the next WR bust, it will be more clear.  

 
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OMG.   Sometimes it's best to go with what you know about a player. .  When Jeudy is the next Marvin Harrison and Bryan Edwards or Donovan Peoples-Jones is the next WR bust, it will be more clear.  
You need to read through the thread - he had them all in the same tier and when people gave him grief he broke them into two tiers based on size as a “deciding” factor. His whole system is analytics based and this is just a first draft until the combine testing. 

Now I don’t agree with this version yet either - based on watching games, I’ve done no real research yet otherwise - but it’s nice to see different viewpoints based on different factors and standards. 

 
You need to read through the thread - he had them all in the same tier and when people gave him grief he broke them into two tiers based on size as a “deciding” factor. His whole system is analytics based and this is just a first draft until the combine testing. 

Now I don’t agree with this version yet either - based on watching games, I’ve done no real research yet otherwise - but it’s nice to see different viewpoints based on different factors and standards. 
Yep, nothing wrong with different viewpoints for sure....but they sure are different ;)

 
OMG.   Sometimes it's best to go with what you know about a player. .  When Jeudy is the next Marvin Harrison and Bryan Edwards or Donovan Peoples-Jones is the next WR bust, it will be more clear.  
As big of a fan I am of Higgins and Shenault, if I'm picking 1 WR NOT to bust with 100% certainty, it's Bryan Edwards.  

 
As big of a fan I am of Higgins and Shenault, if I'm picking 1 WR NOT to bust with 100% certainty, it's Bryan Edwards.  
Why is that?  He never had a 1000 yard season and not more than 8 TDs in a season.  Are you going to blame it on the QB for 4 years?

 
Blindly stating Benny Snell > Miles Sanders and not giving much reason why except for counting stats and a general hatred for basic athleticism.
I owned up to that mistake some time ago.  You didn't really answer my question.   Just because I scoff at you for putting Jeudy and Lamb in a lower tier than a lot of guys who will be scrubs, doesn't compare to Snell and Sanders.  Based on that logic I would have been promoting Sanders, not Snell.  I believe you just like being oppositional for oppositional's sake. 

 
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Why is that?  He never had a 1000 yard season and not more than 8 TDs in a season.  Are you going to blame it on the QB for 4 years?
His movement is the same as Jeudy's and he has 2 inches and 20 pounds on him.  Plus the breakout age of 17.9 (17.8 depending on when you start it).  Yes his supporting cast was garbage, but he had a certain WR named Deebo beside him a lot of the time and his numbers are almost the same.  Deebo on that same offense was actually worse over his 4 years than Edwards was.  Never had 1000 himself and Edwards had over 1000 yards total than Deebo had (although injury played a part there) at SC.  

 
His movement is the same as Jeudy's and he has 2 inches and 20 pounds on him.  Plus the breakout age of 17.9 (17.8 depending on when you start it).  Yes his supporting cast was garbage, but he had a certain WR named Deebo beside him a lot of the time and his numbers are almost the same.  Deebo on that same offense was actually worse over his 4 years than Edwards was.  Never had 1000 himself and Edwards had over 1000 yards total than Deebo had (although injury played a part there) at SC.  
Samuel at least had 11 tds his senior season ;)   You have to admit Edwards was an underachiever. 

 
I owned up to that mistake some time ago.  You didn't really answer my question.   Just because I scoff at you for putting Jeudy and Lamb in a lower tier than a lot of guys who will be scrubs, doesn't compare to Snell and Sanders.  I believe you just like being oppositional for oppositional's sake. 
I don’t have Jeudy or Lamb in a lower tier. My point is you’ve done this dance for multiple years.

You have zero idea what these players are, neither do I. At this point last year Hakeem Butler was rushing his way up to WR1. A guy like Brandon Aiyuk could have the same sort of rise... why do I make that comparison? They both did absolutely nothing for 3 years of college.

I like (and I assume Zyphros likes) Edwards 17 year old breakout age, which combined with draft capital is the most important predictor for WR success in the NFL. He has a 22 mph run on the books which means he could time sub 4.5. Also will be uber elite time at 6’4. 

 
Samuel at least had 11 tds his senior season ;)   You have to admit Edwards was an underachiever. 
Never said he didn't.  He also only had 16 TD's for all 4 years, were you saying Deebo sucks last year?  Cause I was saying he was a personal favorite.  Deebo played 5 games as a freshman with a total of 161 yards, Edwards played 12 games and got 590.  

Edwards did underachieve a little, but that's circumstances.  My point is Deebo underachieved as well, and Edwards did better his years at SC than Deebo did.  Edwards is the better prospect between the 2 of them.   Edwards is this years JuJu without the ultra productive year before the disappointing one.  He will not bust.  

 
I don't know if it means all that much, some players with similar builds have done well - kupp and woods among others, but a BMI around 25 gives me some concern.  Probably not enough to  Jefferson far, but maybe a little unless he's able to add weight without losing agility and speed.  I mean, that's lower than mine and I'd break on contact. 
Robert Woods has a 27.3 BMI... pretty big for a WR. Kupp’s is 26.7. I’m not seeing this comparison for Jeudy and Lamb. Hopefully they weigh in closer to 26. 

John Brown has a 24.8 BMI. Honestly it’s not that I see those two as not having success, it’s that history tells us at their size their success is limited either by injury or by being in the mold of a splash play WR2. We should be building our dynasty rosters looking for high end WR1’s IMO.

 
I like (and I assume Zyphros likes) Edwards 17 year old breakout age, which combined with draft capital is the most important predictor for WR success in the NFL. He has a 22 mph run on the books which means he could time sub 4.5. Also will be uber elite time at 6’4. 
I'm a big Edwards fan but would be shocked if he ran sub 4.5. As long as he can stay somewhere in the 4.5s I still like his chances. I believe he'll be a better pro than he was a college player. With Deebo gone this was going to be Edwards big year, but when Bentley went out the freshman QB hurt that. Be very surprised it he doesn't go day 2.

 
Some random thoughts after the commentary here, with the Shrine Bowl taking place yesterday and taking a second look at things:

- James Robinson I would like to put as a tier 2 RB. Part of my process this year was to lower sub power 5 schools a tier and then lower sub D1 another tier. He mad enough favorable impression at the Shrine game that if he gets a combine invite and tests well he could go in the middle rounds.

-If we were drafting today Cam Akers would be my #1 RB. Enough tea leaves have fallen to see he, more than the other three big name RB’s, was generating most of his yardage on his own.

-I think I agree with the WR tier being too big or, at very least, that it needs a bit more definition to each group. I may work on something tonight. I’m still collecting and inputting a lot of basic data (height, weight, age, etc.)

-The only prospect I hate and have bad things to say about so far is Van Jefferson. I don’t know why these wanna be NFL Scout film junkies cling to a guy like this every year. Riley Ridley part 2. Small, old, unproductive... did he really need to go play with Joe Burrow to prove how not good he is?

-Players who I want to be higher on but can’t: Josh Imatorbhebhe and Brandon Aiyuk... both are going to shred the combine but didn’t do anything until their final season. They’ll probably go in a place I’m not very comfortable taking them.

-Going to get real tired of non analytical peeps pointing to Terry McLaurin. IIRC, there wasn’t a single Terry McLaurin stan except for the dude that ran the Senior Bowl. I do understand the flaws there though. Even as an older prospect it was important to recognize his size/athleticism/draft capital combo. There is always going to be misses though. 

 
Senior Bowl weigh in's are complete. It's changed some things for my RB's and I am still attempting to consolidate my WR tiers.

Tier 1
Cam Akers
Jonathan Taylor
JK Dobbins
D'Andre Swift
Tier 2
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Tier 3
James Robinson
Eno Benjamin
AJ Dillon
Salvon Ahmed 
Zack Moss
Michael Warren

Vaughn weighed in well below his 218 listing. He's at 205 which I think can still be a weight/BMI that is productive in the NFL but he isn't in the vein of the top tier as I originally thought. Turns out the Aaron Jones comp may be a lot closer than anticipated. Eno Benjamin weighed in at 195, I'm struggling to keep him as high as I do at that weight with his low YPC this season. There are several backs that I have moved up into a tier after tier three that the combine could change a lot including Antonio Gibson, Perine, McFarland and Leake.

 
Took a rough stab at a top 24... not really how I like to do business during draft time but I'm ok how it is right now.

1)  Akers
2)  Taylor
3)  Dobbins
4)  Swift
5)  Reagor
6)  Shenault
7)  Higgins
8)  Edwards-Helaire
9)  Br. Edwards
10) Tyler Johnson
11) Lamb
12) Burrow
13) Tua
14) Vaughn
15) Jeudy
16) Jefferson
17) Thad Moss
18) Cole Kmet
19) Gabriel Davis
20) Cody White
21) Gandy-Golden
22) J. Love
23) Herbert
24) J. Hurts
 

 
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I think I've tamed the WR tiers for now. This is a very, very deep class. Draft capital is going to mean a lot because teams are going to be able to be picky.

Tier 1
Bryan Edwards
Tee Higgins
Jalen Reagor
Tyler Johnson
Ceedee Lamb
Laviska Shenault
Tier 2
Antonio Gandy-Golden
Jerry Jeudy
Justin Jefferson
Gabriel Davis
Cody White
Tier 3
Isaiah Hodgins
KJ Hamler
Denzel Mims
Kalija Lipscomb
Michael Pittman Jr.
Quintez Cephus
Henry Ruggs
Tier 4
Collin Johnson
Donavan Peoples-Jones
Brandon Aiyuk
Mason Kinsey
Devin Duvernay
Jauan Jennings
Chase Claypool
James Proche
Lynn Bowden Jr. 
Van Jefferson
KJ Hill

Ignore the order but if you're curious it's currently sorted by breakout age and 2019 market share.

 
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Took a rough stab at a top 24... not really how I like to do business during draft time but I'm ok how it is right now.

1)  Akers
2)  Taylor
3)  Dobbins
4)  Swift
5)  Reagor
6)  Shenault
7)  Higgins
😎  Edwards-Helaire
9)  Br. Edwards
10) Tyler Johnson
11) Lamb
12) Burrow
13) Tua
14) Vaughn
15) Jeudy
16) Jefferson
17) Thad Moss
18) Cole Kmet
19) Gabriel Davis
20) Cody White
21) Gandy-Golden
22) J. Love
23) Herbert
24) J. Hurts
 
Interesting that your list looks nothing like the consensus. My top 24 lists over the years tend to be quite different as well. I just don't like to share due to all the message board experts that make it a point dismiss them. Over the years I have found my lists to be more useful.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
why so down on jeudy iceman?
Many of the film guys are marching Jeudy forward as a generational type but that’s not what I see. People always take this wrong because they say or think: “well you’re saying he’s bad!” Then when he has a low end WR2 ceiling they go: “Told you so!” Here are some reasons I don’t see him as a generational WR or WR1 and I see his ceiling as a mid tier WR2:
 

WR’s in the last six seasons to produce a top 12 season with <26 BMI (Jeudy 25.1 BMI):

Thielen x2 25.7

Diggs 25.9

AJ Green x2 25.6

Manny Sanders 25.1

WR’s in the last six season with Dominator <28 to produce a top 12 season (Jeudy 25.1 DOM): 

Tyreek Hill x3 19.4

Doug Baldwin x2 27

WR’s with 20+ Point Per Game seasons since 2000 w/ BMI <26:

Marvin Harrison x3 25.1

Randy Moss x2 25.6

 
Did a quick hustle on Marvin Harrison’s market share numbers just so some wise guy on the Internet doesn’t then compare Jeudy to Harrison:

Harrison: 30% SO, 40% JR, 56% SR

Jeudy: 27% SO, 23.3% JR

 
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I think when the combine rolls around I could see me breaking down my RB tiers more. Thinking about the tier 4 being a satellite specific tier as I like to roster those kind of backs but they’re not worth as high of draft picks. It would look something like this given what I know about their relative weight and BMI:

Eno Benjamin 195, 28.8

Salvon Ahmed 196, 27.3

Darryton Evans 200, 27.9

Jon Ward 202, 27.4

Anthony McFarland 198, 29.2

Adrian Killins 162, 25.4

Then Perine, Josh Kelley, Javon Leake, Ben Lemay and Antonio Gibson would either round out tier 3 or be the new tier 4 separate from the satellite specific tier. 

 
Iceman, I am souring on Jeudy a bit. I dont question his talent- it's his size. "oh well he can tack on 10 pounds easily" Really? Then how come others have a hard time (except for David Boston). I cant think of any good, skinny WRs who turned out to bulk up during their career. 

Tajae Sharpe comes to mind. I remember being at the GB/TEN game in 2016 sitting front row behind the titans bench thinking "Holy crap Sharpe is tiny!!" His arms and legs were toothpicks. Fast forward 3 seasons and hes still a toothpick. Sharpe's BMI is about what Jeudy's projects to be at the combine... 

Doesnt matter how fast he is or how great of routes he runs if he cant get off the line of scrimmage... 
I don’t know that you should “sour” on him. He will be a first, I have little doubt of that. He’s the same size as Calvin Ridley. I just don’t think you should go out of your way to make him your top pick. I don’t see his ceiling as being a high end WR1.

 
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Robert Woods has a 27.3 BMI... pretty big for a WR. Kupp’s is 26.7. I’m not seeing this comparison for Jeudy and Lamb. Hopefully they weigh in closer to 26. 

John Brown has a 24.8 BMI. Honestly it’s not that I see those two as not having success, it’s that history tells us at their size their success is limited either by injury or by being in the mold of a splash play WR2. We should be building our dynasty rosters looking for high end WR1’s IMO.
Interesting. I don't recall what I was looking at that had them smaller. 

Either way, I'm in agreement, even after watching jeudy most of the year, that he's not my top wr. There's very little chance I get him in any league unless he drops bigly. 

 
Does anyone see a huge difference in the potential top 3-4 picks, not counting where they land?
I think Taylor and Akers will prove to be more athletic than Dobbins and Swift. That being said situation and draft capital will sway me. CEH also could get into the conversation if it was say early 2nd to someone like the Chiefs (dart throw hypothetical).

 
I went ahead and did pull the guys I project as a satellite out into their own grouping. I may have to insert Benjamin back into the fold if he goes in the top three rounds but at 195 he is too small to be a workhorse even with the game changing. Javon Leake and Anthony McFarland I also leave the door open for:

Tier 2: Vaughn, CEH, Dillon, Moss 

Tier 3: James Robinson, Kelley, Perine, Warren, Antonio Gibson, Ben Lamey

Satellite: Benjamin, Pete Guerriero, Salvon Ahmed, Darryton Evans, Jon Ward, Leake, McFarland, Killins

 
Decided I need to take a stand on TE’s after having some hesitancy of where the hype machines mind is. Tight End is an annoying and nuanced position. I think this class is also deep but a lot of these guys will have no business inline and people underestimate how much that hurts them (why the Bryant’s are “down” on my board). With development windows being into the 2nd contract I would suggest tempering any infatuation with TE’s. George Kittle is a true unicorn and shouldn’t be compared to people, though I’m sure he will. Anywho:

Tier 1:

1) Colby Parkinson

2) Adam Trautman

3) Cole Kmet

4) Devin Asiasi

5) Thad Moss

Tier 2:

6) Jared Pinkney

7) Harrison Bryant

8 ) Hunter Bryant

9) Brycen Hopkins

Tier 3:

10) Stephen Sullivan

11) Albert Okwuegbunam

12) Charlie Taumoepeau

13) Jacob Breeland

 
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I want to expand on this study to span over the last 10-20 years but currently looking at the TE landscape the TE’s listed under/equal to 245 lbs include: Jordan Reed, Gerald Everett, Trey Burton, Irv Smith Jr., Evan Engram and Jacob Hollister. Only Burton has started all 16 games in a season. It’s already a brutal position and obviously there has been some modest fantasy appeal in that group but I think you’re asking a lot for someone hovering around 240 to be a consistent asset. Weigh in’s will be as important, if not moreso, for me with the TE’s.

 
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I did get to do a quick TE study. I want to preface by saying that there were more than fantasy viable seasons stacked into the </= 245 lb results, however the results backed up my thought process. Between 2004 and 2019 there were 7 TE seasons listed at or below 245 lbs to start 14 or more games and post > 10 ppg (PPR). 6 of those seasons belonged to Kellen Winslow and Owen Daniels, the other was Eric Johnson (and PFR has him listed at 210 which can’t possibly be correct). During that same time frame there were 69 TE seasons listed at or above 246 lbs >10 ppg (PPR).

Some notes: Winslow topped the list production wise posting an 1100 yd season. No other TE </= 245 posted a 1000 yd season. Jordan Reed posted a 17 and 14 ppg injury shortened season. 

Conclusion: Pretty much same as before. TE’s </= 245lb’s are outliers. Kellen Winslow and Shannon Sharpe are pretty much the two that managed to have a career of modest durability and production. While these players can produce well in stretches, I also believe them to be extremely less durable than the average TE. Zach Miller, Jordan Reed and Dennis Pitta all essentially suffered career ending injuries which makes up 33% of players in the querry.

 
I have a spreadsheet of TE fantasy scoring since 1988. With a little bit of cross-referencing, I can find the weight of each guy when he entered the NFL... here are the top 40 fantasy TEs since 1988, with the weight for all but one of them.

13 out of 39 (33%) weighed 245 or less, although only 4 out of 26 (15%) who entered the NFL since 2000.

244    Tony Gonzalez    1997
221    Shannon Sharpe    1990

255(?) Antonio Gates    2003
264    Jason Witten    2003
258    Rob Gronkowski    2010
243    Ben Coates    1991
250    Keith Jackson    1988
260    Jimmy Graham    2010
257    Travis Kelce    2013
240    Wesley Walls    1989
249    Zach Ertz    2013
255    Jeremy Shockey    2002
274    Eric Green    1990
232    Frank Wycheck    1993
252    Todd Heap    2001
257    Dallas Clark    2003
254    Greg Olsen    2007
265    Chris Cooley    2004
251    Kellen Winslow    2004
254    Vernon Davis    2006
266    Alge Crumpler    2001
247    George Kittle    2017
260    Freddie Jones    1997
240    Delanie Walker    2006
236    Jordan Reed    2013
231    Jackie Harris    1990
253    Owen Daniels    2006
236    Marv Cook    1989
258    Johnny Mitchell    1992
248    Rickey Dudley    1996
247    Randy McMichael    2002
???    Marcus Pollard    1995
256    Heath Miller    2005
245    Aaron Hernandez    2010
234    Evan Engram    2017

246    Julius Thomas    2011
235    Mark Chmura    1992
246    Jared Cook    2009
250    Eric Ebron    2014
254    Austin Hooper    2016

 
@ZWK

There seems to be a big discrepancy at TE specifically with Pro Football Reference.

They have Gonzo at 247, Walker at 248, Coates at 245 and Wycheck at 253. 🤷🏻‍♂️ Not sure what’s going on with that but you’re not the only one with variance in weight against what they list.

ETA: Aaron Hernandez at 250

 
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My source for Aaron Hernandez's 245 pound weight was Pro Football Reference combine results. They also have Delanie Walker at 240 at the 2006 combine. Their player pages & search results have a different number which I guess is the player's NFL listing. It's an open question how well each of those numbers match their NFL playing weight, but for the comparisons that we're trying to make right now the combine results seem like the most relevant number.

Most of my numbers came from nflcombineresults, which has combine data going farther back (PFR only goes back to 2000). Different sources of combine results generally agree with each other about weight.

 
My source for Aaron Hernandez's 245 pound weight was Pro Football Reference combine results. They also have Delanie Walker at 240 at the 2006 combine. Their player pages & search results have a different number which I guess is the player's NFL listing. It's an open question how well each of those numbers match their NFL playing weight, but for the comparisons that we're trying to make right now the combine results seem like the most relevant number.

Most of my numbers came from nflcombineresults, which has combine data going farther back (PFR only goes back to 2000). Different sources of combine results generally agree with each other about weight.
That probably suggests I may be too slavish to the 245 number as there is room to put on weight and play at a high level in the NFL. I’m not changing anything right now. I guess I’ll wait until the combine to figure out where to go. Hopefully the weigh in’s and athleticism start to align things. 

 
MPH

Jonathan Taylor - 22.4

Ke'Shawn Vaughn - 21.3

JK Dobbins - 19.8

Cam Akers - 22.4

Salvon Ahmed - 22

Bryan Edwards - 22.3

Jerry Jeudy - 22.9

Henry Ruggs 24.3

Brandon Aiyuk 20.9
What are your sources on those speeds for Edwards & Jeudy? I'm putting together my own list and haven't seen those ones.

 
What are your sources on those speeds for Edwards & Jeudy? I'm putting together my own list and haven't seen those ones.
Edwards: https://twitter.com/pacificscouting/status/1016442257233272833?s=21

Jeudy appears to possibly be incorrect. I took it from a tweet but there is no verification there so I’m going to be taking it off my list. 

I’ll PM you the times I have when I get home tonight. Most are from the Senior Bowl week.

 
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Reactions: ZWK
I have 16 RB's that I feel could be drafted in the first four rounds and have 3 down capability. I have 12 listed as satellites but some of those I think will end up not being drafted at all. My top two tiers seem to start to be gaining consensus around the community: JT, Akers, Swift, Dobbins, CEH, Vaughn, Dillon, Moss

My tier 3 seems to have a little more gray online and with draftnicks (I'm doing something different filtering out satellites which is why Benjamin won't be included in this group. He is my top satellite back, how that will work in final rankings I'm still a bit unsure about). In order: Josh Kelley, Lamichal Perine, Antonio Gibson, Michael Warren, James Robinson, Ben Lemay, Deejay Dallas, Javon Leake

Benjamin, McFarland, JJ Taylor, Ahmed and Bellamy are my top five satellites. Lots of small school, high production, high athlete guys mixed in. Have some backs like Feaster, Patrick Taylor and Brian Herrien on a watchlist that meet the size requirement and are combine invitees that I'll spare the board from. 

 
I'm still a bit perplexed by TE's. I've actually tried to see if there is some consensus amongst scouts but it's all over the board. I've had a bit of a coming to jesus for Hunter Bryant but if I was an NFL team I would take him with the plan to use him as primarily a slot WR and completely limit his inline play. I doubt that happens but he's going to go early. I have to stick by what I am seeing in the data for TE's under 245 lbs and under 29 BMI. I re-emphasized early production until I get athleticism. I think both analytics and film folks are doing the same and are only emphasizing the Bryant's right now due to their overt athleticism and known receiving production. Unfortunately, even in fantasy, that is not the complete picture for TE's. Anywho after reassessing this is my top 10 in order, skipping tiers for now: Adam Trautman, Jared Pinkney, Hunter Bryant, Devin Asiasi, Harrison Bryant, Cole Kmet, Thad Moss, Brycen Hopkins, Jacob Breeland

 
I'm still a bit perplexed by TE's. I've actually tried to see if there is some consensus amongst scouts but it's all over the board. I've had a bit of a coming to jesus for Hunter Bryant but if I was an NFL team I would take him with the plan to use him as primarily a slot WR and completely limit his inline play. I doubt that happens but he's going to go early. I have to stick by what I am seeing in the data for TE's under 245 lbs and under 29 BMI. I re-emphasized early production until I get athleticism. I think both analytics and film folks are doing the same and are only emphasizing the Bryant's right now due to their overt athleticism and known receiving production. Unfortunately, even in fantasy, that is not the complete picture for TE's. Anywho after reassessing this is my top 10 in order, skipping tiers for now: Adam Trautman, Jared Pinkney, Hunter Bryant, Devin Asiasi, Harrison Bryant, Cole Kmet, Thad Moss, Brycen Hopkins, Jacob Breeland
This is not the year of the TE, but if you held a knife under my throat I would take Cole Kmet in the later rounds.  Next year is the year of the TE with Kyle Pitts and Brevin Jordan, both studs.

 
This is not the year of the TE, but if you held a knife under my throat I would take Cole Kmet in the later rounds.  Next year is the year of the TE with Kyle Pitts and Brevin Jordan, both studs.
Don’t forget about Pat Freiermuth too.

 
Don’t forget about Pat Freiermuth too.
You can have all those TEs from this year and I'll just wait until next year and hope I land either Pitts or Jordan.   If I have to have a TE for this year I would rather trade for an experienced one.

 
I’ll wait to post full rankings for after workouts. I have a lot of shifting going on from the weigh ins though. Biggest movers:

Justin Jefferson - I had him in tier three with an estimated sub 25 BMI. He weighed in over 200 and I have him at an estimated 26.7 BMI. He’s moved way up in tier 1 as WR4 right now.

Tyler Johnson/Bryan Edwards - Johnson is doing his best to piss off every scout in the NFL. He’s going to go late IMO. No reason to artificially enhance his value when the NFL is going to make it a challenge to give him an opportunity. Edwards injury immediately had me move him to the bottom of tier 2 and out of my top ten. His draft capital will dictate my feelings on him. 

Hodgins, Jennings, Bowden, DPJ - All had great weigh ins. I’m expecting them to show out in workouts. I’d love to have them a lot higher than I even do right now.

Hunter Bryant - Up to TE2 for me. I still have Trautman as #1. I think he is more of an ideal TE. I can no longer deny the potential for Bryant at 248 lbs though. 

Harrison Bryant - He measured sub 245/sub 29 BMI... I don’t think I recall seeing a successful TE below these metrics in the last 20 years. If you take him you have to hope he can put on weight. Since he didn’t between the Senior Bowl and Combine I have a lot of hesitation with him. I have him as TE10 now.

Eno Benjamin, McFarland, Leake, Jet Anderson and Hasty - All measured >205 and >28 BMI and exited “satellite” status. Benjamin entered tier 2 as RB 8. I’m open to move the other three higher but they sit in a tier three status with more value right now.

Salvon Ahmed - He maintained his estimated college weight. Strictly a big upside speed guy. Personally I like Raymond Calais over him. 

 
If you take him you have to hope he can put on weight. Since he didn’t between the Senior Bowl and Combine I have a lot of hesitation with him.
Realistically, how much weight can a player gain in the month-ish since the Senior Bowl?  I put a lot of skepticism into what I consider to be "water weight" for players who magically weigh in far better at the Combine.

 

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