Idea for the turn - or close to the turn (1 Viewer)

[The Dude]

Maybe it's been discussed - what about taking Kelce and Tyreek late in the first/early second?  40% of Mahomes passing TD's in 2018.

I might like that over WR-WR

 

[BobbyLayne]

Maybe it's been discussed - what about taking Kelce and Tyreek late in the first/early second?  40% of Mahomes passing TD's in 2018.

I might like that over WR-WR

If he drops to 35 TDs - the Vegas over/under line is 36.5 - you've locked up 14 TDs.

Congrats?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Maybe it's been discussed - what about taking Kelce and Tyreek late in the first/early second?  40% of Mahomes passing TD's in 2018.

I might like that over WR-WR

It can work. 

But....

there’s a big risk going after the TE1 that early when you can get Ertz, EE or another top 4 guy several rounds later. 

You take a hit at RB1, WR2, and could feel behind the 8-ball for much of the draft. 

In a cheap ($20) work league a long while ago I took Gronk at the end of the 1st as an experiment. The entire draft I was playing catch-up, and fell into a pattern where I kept having to get the end of runs because I couldn’t risk not having a quality WR3 or RB2 or whatever. 

Even as one of the early believers in doing QB free-fall, it didn’t really balance out. 

I didn’t love my team. It wasn’t awful, but looking at the draft it could have been better. 

Added to that you’re not diversifying assets, so if Mahomes has a crap day, he could take your WR1 & TE1 with him.

finally, you’re giving value to your opponents. If I’m sitting 11, and guys like Chubb, JuJu, Michael Thomas, OBJ are on the board and I watch you go Hill/Kelce, I’m delighted since I have them all projected higher than Hill & wouldn’t take a TE early anyway. 

It all depends on who’s there to draft & how you rank them. I wouldn’t skip higher ranked players to do this experiment. If you’re sitting 10 it makes more sense, IF Hill comes back to you in the 2nd. He often does, per mocks / ADP. 

Hypothetically speaking of course. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If he drops to 35 TDs - the Vegas over/under line is 36.5 - you've locked up 14 TDs.

Congrats?

I’d take the over on that. I may place that wager today.

 

[elmanx]

there’s a big risk going after the TE1 that early when you can get Ertz, EE or another top 4 guy several rounds later. 

You're  almost never getting Ertz "several rounds" later.   Ertz will likely be gone before it gets back to you in the 3rd.   

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You're  almost never getting Ertz "several rounds" later.   Ertz will likely be gone before it gets back to you in the 3rd.   

It was an example & I also mentioned EE in the same sentence - who’s commonly a 4-5 round pick. Which is “several rounds later”. 

Ertz is a usually 3rd rounder, so the point holds. Is Kelce 2 rounds better than Ertz? And more importantly the point: is what you lose going from Kelce to Ertz be equal or less than what you lose at every other position by taking a TE in the 1st round? 

I made some points in my post far more relevant to the question at hand - You're kinda missing the forest for the trees by reading half a sentence & fixating on a perceived error. 

 

[elmanx]

It was an example & I also mentioned EE in the same sentence - who’s commonly a 4-5 round pick. Which is “several rounds later”. 

Ertz is a usually 3rd rounder, so the point holds. Is Kelce 2 rounds better than Ertz? And more importantly the point: is what you lose going from Kelce to Ertz be equal or less than what you lose at every other position by taking a TE in the 1st round? 

I made some points in my post far more relevant to the question at hand - You're kinda missing the forest for the trees by reading half a sentence & fixating on a perceived error. 

I only focused on the Ertz part because that was the only problem I saw in your post.  The rest was quite reasonable.