IDP Dynasty league question (1 Viewer)

[Captain Spaulding]

Say you draft in your dynasty rookie draft a projected stud LB, CB or DE who was a 15th overall draft pick. Within the first or second year in the NFL they become a starter for their respective team. Unfortunately they aren't cracking the top 30 in fantasy points in your league for their respective position.

You see other players on the waiver wire who are not very well recognized players but are having a couple "hot" scoring weeks and ranked in the top 15 fantasy points for their position. When do you part ways with your rookie draft pick/projected NFL stud defensive player from a year or 2 ago for a someone off waivers who looks to be able to plug into your lineup and produce, but they are a virtual unknown player (unless your a homer and know all of your players on your team)?

For instance I own Laron Landry of the Skins. On the season he only has 1 fantasy point (1/2 sack in week 1) and has generated no other points, yet he starts every week and was a top high-touted draft pick last year. There are 9 other free agent DB's, none of whom I've barely if ever heard of whom have scored between 6-10 points on the season and rank between #10-#30 in DB's. None of these guys though have scored points in more than 2 games this 6 game season so their points could be fluky. Last year Landry started all season and didn't put up any fantasy stats either. So barely into year 2 in the NFL, is it too risky to cut him for a no-name guy off waivers? I have many 1st round NFL defensive players similiar to Landry, whom I've drafted over the last 3-4 years as rookies whom aren't putting up fantasy stats in our league scoring but are good NFL players none-the-less and I've been reluctant to part with them.

League scoring is as follows:

6 pts for TD's scored

2 pts for sacks

2 pts for INTs

2 pts for 8+tackles

 

[Jasper Woodcock]

Say you draft in your dynasty rookie draft a projected stud LB, CB or DE who was a 15th overall draft pick. Within the first or second year in the NFL they become a starter for their respective team. Unfortunately they aren't cracking the top 30 in fantasy points in your league for their respective position.

You see other players on the waiver wire who are not very well recognized players but are having a couple "hot" scoring weeks and ranked in the top 15 fantasy points for their position. When do you part ways with your rookie draft pick/projected NFL stud defensive player from a year or 2 ago for a someone off waivers who looks to be able to plug into your lineup and produce, but they are a virtual unknown player (unless your a homer and know all of your players on your team)?

For instance I own Laron Landry of the Skins. On the season he only has 1 fantasy point (1/2 sack in week 1) and has generated no other points, yet he starts every week and was a top high-touted draft pick last year. There are 9 other free agent DB's, none of whom I've barely if ever heard of whom have scored between 6-10 points on the season and rank between #10-#30 in DB's. None of these guys though have scored points in more than 2 games this 6 game season so their points could be fluky. Last year Landry started all season and didn't put up any fantasy stats either. So barely into year 2 in the NFL, is it too risky to cut him for a no-name guy off waivers? I have many 1st round NFL defensive players similiar to Landry, whom I've drafted over the last 3-4 years as rookies whom aren't putting up fantasy stats in our league scoring but are good NFL players none-the-less and I've been reluctant to part with them.

League scoring is as follows:

6 pts for TD's scored

2 pts for sacks

2 pts for INTs

2 pts for 8+tackles

Are you only asking about DB's? What's the fascination with Landry? He's an OK IDP at best. There are some guys on the wire that are better than he is with your scoring system.Eric Weddle

Brian Williams

Quintin Mikell

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=432388

 

[Rozelle]

I hate to sound like Dr Ruth here, but size matters, rosters that is. If you have the room, obviously one can be more patient. The fact a players is a first round draft pick (NFL) has some bearing, but not so much. There are times, in rookie drafts, the player I like best or just as well as another, at a certain position isn’t drafted in the NFL until 2nd, 3rd round or so. I’m more apt to hang on to those types, than say someone who was drafted in the first round of the NFL draft.

Pay attention to scheme and don’t over value players who were first round draft picks. If there are quality players on the wire who are producing, pull the trigger. I'd much rather have a Gibril Wilson (5th rounder), than someone like Landry, who may be playing extremely well, but just not a good FF producer.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Great question and nice discussion.

It's probably worth considering the draft round of a given player for the purposes of initial opportunity only. A early round draft pick is obviously going to be more likely to get earlier opportunity -- usually anyway.

Other than that, however, throw draft position out the window. Production against NFL talent, fit within scheme and role, surrounding cast, etc are all more important to evaluating a defensive player's IDP value than draft position.

If a player can't crack a starting lineup or earn significant rotational snaps within a reasonable time frame behind average (or worse) competition, he's not more likely to produce because he's a relatively high draft pick. For example, you don't want to be waiting forever on an Albert Fincher but you should have more patience with Barrett Ruud.

If a player is getting plenty of playing time, but can't play at an elite level, the light isn't necessarily more likely to turn on because he's a high draft pick. You may want to be a little more patient with a guy like Vernon Gholston or Jamaal Anderson or the like, but not much. You certainly shouldn't turn your back on Lawrence Jackson to hold those guys for example.

You certainly shouldn't ignore a seventh rounder like Chinedum Ndukwe for LaRon Landry because of draft position. Landry hasn't done anything to suggest he's not worthy of his draft position, but his role in his scheme and the talent of surrounding cast ensure that his IDP value isn't likely to match his talent (or draft position) until something changes. The same goes for a guy like Donte Whitner.

Landry's issue isn't talent, though, so he's worth being patient with -- if, as Rozelle notes, you've got space. If not, as those who dropped DJ Williams, Thomas Davis, Barrett Ruud, Gerald Hayes, etc will attest, when things change (positionally, scheme or injury) you better be ready to get them back.

In short, you need a much better reason than draft position to hold a player if they prove they may not be able to hack it in the NFL.

Kenny Phillips and Derrick Harvey will be the next tests of this rule. They're currently struggling for playing time behind so-so competition. If they stay healthy and can't break the lineup soon as every-down players, there's a very tough decision to be made. Given no other option, it'd be very hard to hold Phillips over Ndukwe or Bell or the like. It'd similarly be very difficult to hold Harvey over Robert Mathis. Especially if you need the help now.

 

[radiohead417]

Jags homer here - just my personal opinion on Harvey here - let's not forget he held out for quite a while. Been watching him the last few games, and he's gotten some pressure, just hasn't gotten 'home' if you will. I think Jax's pass-rush will be much improved the second half of the year, especially considering their level of competition. In other words, buy low on Harvey now.

 

[Duke1948]

got one of those now in Michael Huff.....with the way he played in college thought he was a no brainer to be a stud when he became a pro. then he is drafted by Oakland and since their D is bad ...he had stud written all over him, NOT.

held on to him for 2 years hoping his numbers would improve, think it's time to cut bait.

 

[Tick]

For me, it varies by position.

In order of the positions I'd hold on to for the least amount of time:

CB - why draft him to begin with? At least 12 nobodies will arise during the season that will be worth more than the first rounder.

S - again, so many guys get into good situations and come through that there's no point holding on to the guy you drafted. Looking at my four Zealots leagues, I'm getting a lot out of MWhite, Bell, Horton, BHarrison, BWilliams, and Ndukwe. Last year, it was a different group of guys - of them, only Bigby and Harper are on my rosters still, but that's fine since I've got a new set of them.

SLB - you didn't know he'd be a SLB when you drafted him; he got stuck there by his team. If he doesn't move by the end of his first year, dump him.

3-4 OLB - you probably drafted him as a DE or based on his draft position, but the position is just too unreliable in most scoring systems, so just dump him. You might miss out on one of the 3 useful 3-4 OLBs long-term, but you're far more likely to pick up some journeyman who fell into a good situation.

WLB/MLB - There's the rare case of a guy waiting two years then being good, but generally you know which guy that's going to be - Ruud and Crowder never lost their value and never got dropped in any of my leauges because people knew they'd get into a good situation at some point. Apart from those odd cases, bail after two years if you even let it go that long. Like the other positions, you can pick up (again, from my Z rosters) Dhani Jones, Nate Webster, Omar Gaither, Justin Durant, or Pat Thomas (though he hasn't panned out).

DE - They sometimes take forever. I'm patient on them sometimes to a fault, but it seems to be the position where a guy is most likely to sit for two years, then be mediocre for a year before breaking out. There are two ways to look at that... either it means that you hold onto your high draft picks for a long time to see if they become one of the small number of elite DEs, or it means that the roster spot isn't worth holding for three years before you find out. I tend toward the former, partially because it never seems to be easy to pick up a DE off waivers who's going to do anything long-term.

I don't draft DTs because I don't have to, so no comment there.

 

[W1cked]

After reading the original post the first thing that came to me was - scheme. A player's talent will only get him so far if he is not in a scheme which maxes that player's value from a FF stand point.

 

[stevegamer]

Say you draft in your dynasty rookie draft a projected stud LB, CB or DE who was a 15th overall draft pick. Within the first or second year in the NFL they become a starter for their respective team. Unfortunately they aren't cracking the top 30 in fantasy points in your league for their respective position.You see other players on the waiver wire who are not very well recognized players but are having a couple "hot" scoring weeks and ranked in the top 15 fantasy points for their position. When do you part ways with your rookie draft pick/projected NFL stud defensive player from a year or 2 ago for a someone off waivers who looks to be able to plug into your lineup and produce, but they are a virtual unknown player (unless your a homer and know all of your players on your team)? For instance I own Laron Landry of the Skins. On the season he only has 1 fantasy point (1/2 sack in week 1) and has generated no other points, yet he starts every week and was a top high-touted draft pick last year. There are 9 other free agent DB's, none of whom I've barely if ever heard of whom have scored between 6-10 points on the season and rank between #10-#30 in DB's. None of these guys though have scored points in more than 2 games this 6 game season so their points could be fluky. Last year Landry started all season and didn't put up any fantasy stats either. So barely into year 2 in the NFL, is it too risky to cut him for a no-name guy off waivers? I have many 1st round NFL defensive players similiar to Landry, whom I've drafted over the last 3-4 years as rookies whom aren't putting up fantasy stats in our league scoring but are good NFL players none-the-less and I've been reluctant to part with them.League scoring is as follows:6 pts for TD's scored2 pts for sacks2 pts for INTs2 pts for 8+tackles

In general, I think holding guys at LB makes sense, and to some extent Safety & even CB if it's required and the scheme is good.However, in your particular league, I'd think defensive points are so rare that I'd probably almost not bother drafting any rookie players except LB's, and maybe not even then. Pretty much ALL defensive coring in your league is fluky, so it's really hard to predict. TD's are essentially imposible to predict, as are INT's. You can sometimes get a good idea about sack matchups for DL, and some things will indicate high tackle games. Look at it this way, A dime corner who gets a pick on a tipped ball is a good scorer for the week if that's all he does. If he returns it for a TD, that's a top 24 DB performer for the year right now.Is that a TD-only league on offense, or one with yardage points at 100/150, etc.? It fells liek aleague where you basically are completely guessing at IDP performance to me with that system.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Say you draft in your dynasty rookie draft a projected stud LB, CB or DE who was a 15th overall draft pick. Within the first or second year in the NFL they become a starter for their respective team. Unfortunately they aren't cracking the top 30 in fantasy points in your league for their respective position.You see other players on the waiver wire who are not very well recognized players but are having a couple "hot" scoring weeks and ranked in the top 15 fantasy points for their position. When do you part ways with your rookie draft pick/projected NFL stud defensive player from a year or 2 ago for a someone off waivers who looks to be able to plug into your lineup and produce, but they are a virtual unknown player (unless your a homer and know all of your players on your team)? For instance I own Laron Landry of the Skins. On the season he only has 1 fantasy point (1/2 sack in week 1) and has generated no other points, yet he starts every week and was a top high-touted draft pick last year. There are 9 other free agent DB's, none of whom I've barely if ever heard of whom have scored between 6-10 points on the season and rank between #10-#30 in DB's. None of these guys though have scored points in more than 2 games this 6 game season so their points could be fluky. Last year Landry started all season and didn't put up any fantasy stats either. So barely into year 2 in the NFL, is it too risky to cut him for a no-name guy off waivers? I have many 1st round NFL defensive players similiar to Landry, whom I've drafted over the last 3-4 years as rookies whom aren't putting up fantasy stats in our league scoring but are good NFL players none-the-less and I've been reluctant to part with them.League scoring is as follows:6 pts for TD's scored2 pts for sacks2 pts for INTs2 pts for 8+tackles

In general, I think holding guys at LB makes sense, and to some extent Safety & even CB if it's required and the scheme is good.However, in your particular league, I'd think defensive points are so rare that I'd probably almost not bother drafting any rookie players except LB's, and maybe not even then. Pretty much ALL defensive coring in your league is fluky, so it's really hard to predict. TD's are essentially imposible to predict, as are INT's. You can sometimes get a good idea about sack matchups for DL, and some things will indicate high tackle games. Look at it this way, A dime corner who gets a pick on a tipped ball is a good scorer for the week if that's all he does. If he returns it for a TD, that's a top 24 DB performer for the year right now.Is that a TD-only league on offense, or one with yardage points at 100/150, etc.? It fells liek aleague where you basically are completely guessing at IDP performance to me with that system.

Offense...its 6 pts for TD's and 3 pts for 100yds. So in essense TD heavy scoring.Back to defense, I'm not sure you can totally rule out drafting secondary guys. Polamalu, Ed Reed and Cromartie were all high draft picks in the NFL and they are great fantasy scorers in this system (alot of picks and TD's resulting as well). Mario Williams is doing well at DE, Terrell Suggs, Demarcus Ware were NFL 1st rounders as well. Lamar Woodley for the Steelers was a 2nd rounder, but Steeler homers would tell you last that he was looking better than the 1st rounder LB drafted last year (Timmons I think?). Just like offense, I think its very hit or miss though, and you really need to do a ton of research on scheme's as mentioned, but also I think to really succeed you need to really see the NFL games that these guys are playing in to see how much time they are getting and how they actually play. If a rookie or 2nd year LB is getting to the QB but perhaps not necessaarily getting the sacks, the stats won't tell you he did anything but watching the games you'll know this guy still is worth keeping around on your team. But unlikely offensive guys where if you cut them you don't have as many pickup options for fantasy production, on defense there are always so many tempting free agents on the board who have put up stats far greater than most of the rostered defensive players withint the fantasy league and its so hard to tell if they are fluke points or these free agents are legit fantasy stars for the remainder of the season or next season.

 

[Bizkiteer]

In all fairness, Landry is much more valuable in the NFL than fantasy. They have him playing deep center field and he's never going to put up BIG tackle numbers playing in the scheme is in. That being said, he should be up better numbers for the teams that liek to air it out and play longball. His value in the NFL is huge as he has the ability and range to cover sideline to sideline. Of course, he's a hitter, but just can't lay the wood as often in his role, which was bascially created by Sean Taylor.

 

[stevegamer]

Rookie DL drafted int he first 2 rounds, since 2004. That info was grabbed from P-F-R:

Draft Results

Year	Rnd	Pick	Player	Pos	Tm	From	To	G	Int	Sk2008	1	2	Chris Long	DE	STL	2008	2008	6		22008	1	5	Glenn Dorsey	DT	KAN	2008	2008	6		2008	1	6	Vernon Gholston	DE	NYJ					2008	1	7	Sedrick Ellis	DT	NOR	2008	2008	4		12008	1	8	Derrick Harvey	DE	JAX	2008	2008	5	1	2008	1	28	Lawrence Jackson	DE	SEA	2008	2008	5		22008	1	29	Kentwan Balmer	DT	SFO	2008	2008	5		2008	2	32	Phillip Merling	DE	MIA	2008	2008	6		12008	2	47	Trevor Laws	DT	PHI					2008	2	50	Calais Campbell	DE	ARI	2008	2008	5		2008	2	52	Quentin Groves	DE	JAX	2008	2008	5		1.52008	2	54	Jason Jones	DE	TEN	2008	2008	6		1.52007	1	4	Gaines Adams	DE	TAM	2007	2008	21	2	82007	1	8	Jamaal Anderson	DE	ATL	2007	2008	21		12007	1	10	Amobi Okoye	DT	HOU	2007	2008	21		5.52007	1	13	Adam Carriker	DE	STL	2007	2008	21		22007	1	16	Justin Harrell	DT	GNB	2007	2007	7		2007	1	17	Jarvis Moss	DE	DEN	2007	2008	9		1.52007	1	26	Anthony Spencer	DE	DAL	2007	2008	20		32007	2	33	Alan Branch	DT	ARI	2007	2008	14		2007	2	46	LaMarr Woodley	DE	PIT	2007	2008	19	1	11.52007	2	54	Turk McBride	DT	KAN	2007	2008	22		12007	2	56	Tim Crowder	DE	DEN	2007	2008	14		42007	2	57	Victor Abiamiri	DE	PHI	2007	2007	6		2007	2	58	Ikaika Alama-Francis	DE	DET	2007	2008	8		0.52007	2	62	Dan Bazuin	DE	CHI					2006	1	1	Mario Williams	DE	HOU	2006	2008	38		24.52006	1	12	Haloti Ngata	DT	BAL	2006	2008	38	2	42006	1	13	Kamerion Wimbley	DE	CLE	2006	2008	38		172006	1	14	Brodrick Bunkley	DT	PHI	2006	2008	36		42006	1	20	Tamba Hali	DE	KAN	2006	2008	38	1	15.52006	1	22	Manny Lawson	DE	SFO	2006	2008	22	1	2.52006	1	26	John McCargo	DT	BUF	2006	2007	21		2.52006	1	32	Mathias Kiwanuka	DE	NYG	2006	2008	31	2	10.52006	2	63	Darryl Tapp	DE	SEA	2006	2008	38	2	102005	1	16	Travis Johnson	DT	HOU	2005	2008	41	1	12005	1	18	Erasmus James	DE	MIN	2005	2007	23		52005	1	20	Marcus R. Spears	DE	DAL	2005	2008	53		4.52005	1	28	Luis Castillo	DE	SDG	2005	2008	43	1	14.52005	1	31	Mike Patterson	DT	PHI	2005	2008	54		9.52005	2	37	Shaun Cody	DT	DET	2005	2008	43	1	1.52005	2	46	Matt Roth	DE	MIA	2005	2008	51		102005	2	53	Dan Cody	DE	BAL	2006	2006	3		2005	2	59	Jonathan Babineaux	DE	ATL	2005	2008	52	1	5.52004	1	14	Tommie Harris	DT	CHI	2004	2008	65		20.52004	1	18	Will Smith	DE	NOR	2004	2008	69		35.52004	1	20	Kenechi Udeze	DE	MIN	2004	2007	51		112004	1	21	Vince Wilfork	NT	NWE	2004	2008	67		5.52004	1	23	Marcus Tubbs	DT	SEA	2004	2006	29		72004	2	35	Igor Olshansky	DE	SDG	2004	2008	66	1	112004	2	36	Junior Siavii	DT	KAN	2004	2005	26		12004	2	42	Travis LaBoy	DE	TEN	2004	2008	59	1	23.52004	2	47	Tank Johnson	DT	CHI	2004	2008	58		112004	2	51	Dwan Edwards	DT	BAL	2004	2007	40	1	12004	2	57	Antwan Odom	DE	TEN	2004	2008	59		14.52004	2	63	Marquise Hill	DE	NWE	2004	2006	13

Way too many busts in this list to waste significant roster spots on. Yes it lists just sacks & INT's, but that's most of your scoring. Is the guy Mario Williams or Kenechi Udeze? If he's not performing by end of year 2, he needs to be gone. I'd rather take a flyer on a guy where there is slim pickings on waivers, than on keeping a fungible DL.