*IF* Joe Biden stepped down (1 Viewer)

[Biff84]

That’s not how it works. Though technically Biden hasn’t been confirmed for the nomination at the Convention so 

I’m talking purely on getting the Bernie supporters on board with any other candidate. Biden naming Warren (for example) as the running mate and then dropping out would likely play better than if Warren was just pushed as the nominee.
 

I think they’re in a good spot right now with the entire party behind Biden to defeat Trump. That’s certainly not a guarantee if he’s replaced by someone else.

 

[jon_mx]

Has to be Sanders, he's earned it. Will probably be Michelle and Hills though due to the powers that be. 

Easily.  He is the only one with a solid enough base to pull it off.  It may annoy the moderates, but they have no one who has the kind of support Sanders has.  

 

[squistion]

Easily.  He is the only one with a solid enough base to pull it off.  It may annoy the moderates, but they have no one who has the kind of support Sanders has.  

It is not going to happen. As I have said with links since 2015, this country will not elect an avowed Socialist. If Bernie is nominated, Democrats might as well concede the election in advance to Trump as it will be already over. Florida is already lost due to his praising of Fidel Castro and a Socialist stands no chance in the rust belt swing states.

 

[jon_mx]

It is not going to happen. As I have said with links since 2015, this country will not elect an avowed Socialist. If Bernie is nominated, Democrats might as well concede the election in advance to Trump as it will be already over. Florida is already lost due to his praising of Fidel Castro and a Socialist stands no chance in the rust belt swing states.

I thought this was a hypothetical discussion.   In the hypothetical you either pick Sanders or you get a mass exodus of his supporters in which case you really have no chance  They already feel cheated from last primary.  

 

[zftcg]

I thought this was a hypothetical discussion.   In the hypothetical you either pick Sanders or you get a mass exodus of his supporters in which case you really have no chance  They already feel cheated from last primary.  

Thinking about this some more, if Biden dropping out means the election is a lost cause, I wonder if a lot of Establishment Dems say, “Ah f##k it, let Bernie have this one. We’re going to lose anyway, might as well throw a Hail Mary and keep the left happy at the same time.”

 

[Thunderlips]

This is intended to be a hypothetical post as an interesting thought exercise.  To be clear, I don't expect any of this to happen.  I do want to set a few ground rules for the hypothetical discussion...

* For sake of hypothetical argument, let's assume Joe Biden steps down in the near future (i.e. well before the convention).  Let's not argue "that will never happen!" or "he shouldn't step down!" or "but Trump!"
* Let's assume it's way too late (and dangerous due to COVID-19) to hold primary elections again in all the states that already did, even assuming it were legal to do so
* For sake of argument, I'd like to approach this from the point of view of a Democrat that views the overarching goal as "ensure that the D nominee wins the general election".  That is, arguments like "Bernie's approach is socialism" aren't really relevant.  Arguments like "Democrats suck, Trump is much better" aren't relevant, since they aren't from the D point of view.  Arguments like "Bernie can't win the general election because he's too far to the left" would be valid, although it would be nice to see some links or facts to back up something like that.
* Let's approach it from the angle of "using the above assumptions, what can/should the DNC do", both legally and strategically?

I suspect the approach would not be to simply award the nomination to Sanders because he has the second-most delegates to date.

I also suspect that awarding the nomination to anyone other than Sanders would cause many of his supporters to have a conniption due to perceived (and possibly very real) DNC bias against Sanders.  Would that cause many of those supporters who might have reluctantly showed up and voted Biden to instead stay home?  Would awarding the nomination to Warren (as opposed to, say, Klobuchar or Buttigieg) mitigate that possibility?

So, if you had final say, and the sole goal is "winning the Nov general", who would you nominate?  Sanders?  Warren?  Klobuchar?  Buttigieg?  Other?

It shouldn't be Sanders as he didn't receive the necessary votes.  I think you send it to the convention.

I think sending it the convention enable the DNC to pick "other".  

 

[Thunderlips]

I thought this was a hypothetical discussion.   In the hypothetical you either pick Sanders or you get a mass exodus of his supporters in which case you really have no chance  They already feel cheated from last primary.  

The more I interact with Bernie supporters....the more I'd be less likely to vote for him.  I'm starting to realize, that even though I'm a Democrat.....there are several shades of the Republican spectrum that are more attractive allies than them.

 

[Chaz McNulty]

Easily.  He is the only one with a solid enough base to pull it off.  It may annoy the moderates, but they have no one who has the kind of support Sanders has.  

I don't think Bernie would get it.  Once it was down to one progressive and one moderate, Bernie got smoked.  His only chance to win was with a full field of moderates.  I think almost any of the moderates would have beat him if it was a 2 person race.  I think the progressives represent around 25-30% of the party.

 

[jon_mx]

As Biden struggles, Hillary waits for the call

Hillary Clinton continues to hover in the wings, ready to step forward should Joe Biden fail.

Don't look now, but Joe is failing. Not only has his campaign been rocked by sexual assault allegations from one-time staffer Tara Reade, but the public is beginning to give up on the former vice president. A new Emerson College poll showed 57 percent of likely voters think President Trump will win reelection in November.

Remember, Establishment Democrats put forward Uncle Joe because he was the "safe" candidate, bound to defeat Trump. Oops.

That's not the only problem that crops up in the Emerson Poll. It also shows Trump supporters 19 points more enthusiastic about their candidate than Biden supporters. That "enthusiasm gap" will drive turnout this fall. With Democrats dependent on young people and minorities, both typically less reliable voters, that lack of excitement for the candidate could be a big problem........

 

[huthut]

I have not seen anyone meaningful besides Republicans suggesting Hillary and it seems like it is purely wishful thinking. Like, the DNC will read enough Youtube comments or whatever to suddenly go for it? She is the only one that is comparable to Trump when it comes to negative public sentiment. She would probably be a better president than Biden.

 

[JamieMurphy]

I vote Other, with Cuomo as the guy.

We're one or two election cycles out from electing  a woman, member of the LGBTQ community, or minority. Unfortunately, that's how it is. A white male has to lead the ticket to have a shot. I'm willing to bite that bullet now to get rid of the current administration. Cuomo would be the Stop The Bleeding candidate. Proven in crisis.

Just think, the debates would be spectacular.

 

[RCon]

I vote Other, with Cuomo as the guy.

We're one or two election cycles out from electing  a woman, member of the LGBTQ community, or minority. Unfortunately, that's how it is. A white male has to lead the ticket to have a shot. I'm willing to bite that bullet now to get rid of the current administration. Cuomo would be the Stop The Bleeding candidate. Proven in crisis.

Just think, the debates would be spectacular.

Considering we're now three election cycles from having already elected a minority, this seems like a strange take.

 

[ren hoek]

Sanders would obviously make the most sense.  The Berniecrats are the only base that can level with MAGA in my opinion.  The best fundraising operation, the best name recognition, the best contrast you can draw with Trump.  When push comes to shove, I think most independent-minded people would see him as a New Deal Democrat, not a socialist.  Because that's what he is.  

But everything the DNC has done up to this point is to prevent him from winning the nomination, so that obviously won't happen.  I've said many times before that Biden is the WORST candidate to run against Trump.  With his mental decline he may be the worst presidential candidate in history.  

I hope they stick with him.  Biden will probably generate the strongest 3rd party turnout.  Like KL was saying, they've gone this far to ram him through the nomination process.  Let's sit back and watch the DNC's genius unfold in real time.  

 

[rockaction]

Sanders would obviously make the most sense.  The Berniecrats are the only base that can level with MAGA in my opinion.  The best fundraising operation, the best name recognition, the best contrast you can draw with Trump.  When push comes to shove, I think most independent-minded people would see him as a New Deal Democrat, not a socialist.  Because that's what he is.  

But everything the DNC has done up to this point is to prevent him from winning the nomination, so that obviously won't happen.  I've said many times before that Biden is the WORST candidate to run against Trump.  With his mental decline he may be the worst presidential candidate in history.  

I hope they stick with him.  Biden will probably generate the strongest 3rd party turnout.  Like KL was saying, they've gone this far to ram him through the nomination process.  Let's sit back and watch the DNC's genius unfold in real time.  

Yes, the DNC wanted Biden, but he was voted in overwhelmingly by Democratic voters. I'm not sure your retelling of events is accurate here. It's revisionism.

 

[ren hoek]

Yes, the DNC wanted Biden, but he was voted in overwhelmingly by Democratic voters. I'm not sure your retelling of events is accurate here. It's revisionism.

Not sure what part of my post you think Biden getting the most votes disagrees with.  

 

[rockaction]

Not sure what part of my post you think Biden getting the most votes disagrees with.  

That the DNC "rammed" him down people's throats. The people spoke loudly -- more so than last time -- and Bernie was easily defeated. I think you might have been watching too much MSNBC, who were obviously in the tank for the more centrist candidates while merely paying lip service to Sanders. But it's not even that neat. The more progressive outlets obviously loved Warren and could barely contain their glee when she wiped the floor with Bloomberg and kneecapped him for the entire primary within three minutes of debate; but the sad fact remains is that Bernie is so far afield from America that he was really doomed when it came to picking a candidate that could win. You disagree with this, and have stated your objection to this line of thought quite vociferously and often. But yours was not even close to the majority voice. Sanders got creamed.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Voted "Other" -- all the other choices were defeated by Democratic voters.

I'd draft Cuomo.  Or someone like him.

Agreed.  The Democratic field ended up being weaker than many of us (me included) thought it was at the beginning of the process.  Cuomo would be a great choice under the circumstances.

 

[ren hoek]

That the DNC "rammed" him down people's throats. The people spoke loudly -- more so than last time -- and Bernie was easily defeated. I think you might have been watching too much MSNBC, who were obviously in the tank for the more centrist candidates while merely paying lip service to Sanders. But it's not even that neat. The more progressive outlets obviously loved Warren and could barely contain their glee when she wiped the floor with Bloomberg and kneecapped him for the entire primary within three minutes of debate; but the sad fact remains is that Bernie is so far afield from America that he was really doomed when it came to picking a candidate that could win. You disagree with this, and have stated your objection to this line of thought quite vociferously and often. But yours was not even close to the majority voice. Sanders got creamed.

Jim Clyburn & Barack Obama worked behind the scenes to help him, every centrist candidate fell in line behind him while Warren clogged the progressive lane.  Corporate media nursed along the 'wacky socialist Castro-lover' narrative, as well as the Biden "electability" narrative.  It doesn't mean Biden didn't get the votes.  I'm not saying he didn't win.  But it makes a difference.  

Anyway.  To the point of Rich's thread I think Sanders is clearly the #2 within the Democratic Party despite being largely demonized and blamed for years following 2016.  I think his favorability in a general election with millions of independents and Trump voters- working people and nonvoters who generally could give a rat's ### about the Democratic party- is easily the strongest of the field, in a way that doesn't necessarily translate in a D primary. 

If they wanted the most suitable candidate that gave them the best odds I think it'd be Sanders.  We all know it'd never happen, but I think that'd be their best course of action if Biden were to drop out.  

 

[rockaction]

Jim Clyburn & Barack Obama worked behind the scenes to help him, every centrist candidate fell in line behind him while Warren clogged the progressive lane.  Corporate media nursed along the 'wacky socialist Castro-lover' narrative, as well as the Biden "electability" narrative.  It doesn't mean Biden didn't get the votes.  I'm not saying he didn't win.  But it makes a difference.  

Anyway.  To the point of Rich's thread I think Sanders is clearly the #2 within the Democratic Party despite being largely demonized and blamed for years following 2016.  I think his favorability in a general election with millions of independents and Trump voters- working people and nonvoters who generally could give a rat's ### about the Democratic party- is easily the strongest of the field, in a way that doesn't necessarily translate in a D primary. 

If they wanted the most suitable candidate that gave them the best odds I think it'd be Sanders.  We all know it'd never happen, but I think that'd be their best course of action if Biden were to drop out.  

Yeah, I don't have a huge disagreement with any of this, really. One thing I don't see eye-to-eye with you on is that I don't think anyone demonized Sanders after 2016 in the mainstream media -- they were more than willing to discuss Hillary Clinton's problems, actually. It was Hillary that trashed Sanders supporters and the voting public as sexist troglodytes. You may be too tuned into internecine battles that never make it out of the chattering class on Twitter and in the social media universe. Anyway, I don't quibble with you too much about electability because the numbers will show what they show, and it'll take a general election to suss it out.

I personally think Sanders and Trump are the two worst candidates for president -- possibly ever -- but I might be repeating myself here. 

 

[leave a whisper]

Sherrod Brown

He wins big/ easy in an ever increasing Red State (Ohio)  .......  from the Midwest/ Great Lakes region ..... history of fighting for worker's rights and Unions .....   he almost ran this year

with K. Harris as his same day announced VP choice - I think that ticket wins 

 

[KiddLattimer]

The more I interact with Bernie supporters....the more I'd be less likely to vote for him.  I'm starting to realize, that even though I'm a Democrat.....there are several shades of the Republican spectrum that are more attractive allies than them.

There's a reason for that... Democrats have spent the better part of the last 40 years becoming a shade of the republican spectrum.

Listen Liberal by Thomas Frank does a great job of laying it all out

 

[zftcg]

Question: When you imagine "the DNC" picking a candidate, what are you picturing? I kind of feel like the unspoken assumption among a lot of people here is that Perez, Obama, Hillary and a few billionaires will sit around in a smoke-filled backroom looking over polls and fundraising data and then coming to a decision. The reality is that it would almost certainly be a contested convention, with all the messiness that entails. 

 

[RCon]

Question: When you imagine "the DNC" picking a candidate, what are you picturing? I kind of feel like the unspoken assumption among a lot of people here is that Perez, Obama, Hillary and a few billionaires will sit around in a smoke-filled backroom looking over polls and fundraising data and then coming to a decision. The reality is that it would almost certainly be a contested convention, with all the messiness that entails. 

To be honest, I don't know what it entails in the real world.  In my hypothetical, I'm the DNC, with fiat power to decide the nomination.

 

[sho nuff]

To be honest, I don't know what it entails in the real world.  In my hypothetical, I'm the DNC, with fiat power to decide the nomination.

Not sure there is a good answer...Bernie guys demand it be Bernie...if its a moderate that Bernie "beat" then they stay home it seems.  And yes...beat is in quotes because we can't go back and know how things go without Biden in the race.  If they go with Bernie...I don't think there is as much revolt...but I also don't think moderate democrats necessarily come out.  But, I will say Bernie probably has the better chance to talk them into it somehow (if he would reach out to try and unify after what would be pretty bad for the party to have to drop a candidate late in the process like this).  So maybe he is the best answer...from the standpoint of having the best chance to keep as many Dem voters as possible hoping that is enough.

The Bernie people seem to hate Pete to the point that no amount of his smooth talking will smooth it over...and Bernie getting passed over again for a guy they dislike...no chance unfortunately.

Amy...not sure...and don't think she inspires enough people without having the momentum strung together had she done well.

 

[zftcg]

To be honest, I don't know what it entails in the real world.  In my hypothetical, I'm the DNC, with fiat power to decide the nomination.

Got it. So this is more, "If Biden drops out, who would you want to run in his place?" I guess I was taking the hypothetical too literally.

 

[rockaction]

Jim Clyburn & Barack Obama worked behind the scenes to help him, every centrist candidate fell in line behind him while Warren clogged the progressive lane.  Corporate media nursed along the 'wacky socialist Castro-lover' narrative, as well as the Biden "electability" narrative.  It doesn't mean Biden didn't get the votes.  I'm not saying he didn't win.  But it makes a difference.  

Anyway.  To the point of Rich's thread I think Sanders is clearly the #2 within the Democratic Party despite being largely demonized and blamed for years following 2016.  I think his favorability in a general election with millions of independents and Trump voters- working people and nonvoters who generally could give a rat's ### about the Democratic party- is easily the strongest of the field, in a way that doesn't necessarily translate in a D primary. 

If they wanted the most suitable candidate that gave them the best odds I think it'd be Sanders.  We all know it'd never happen, but I think that'd be their best course of action if Biden were to drop out.  

By the way, I've noticed I can speak strongly when we talk about third-party stuff or candidates outside the party system. Be assured it comes from my belief in the position I'm taking rather than anything personal. I appreciate the time you take, your contributions, and some of the stuff you've said to me. I just happen to disagree with some of your politics.

 

[Thunderlips]

I thought this was a hypothetical discussion.   In the hypothetical you either pick Sanders or you get a mass exodus of his supporters in which case you really have no chance  They already feel cheated from last primary.  

The rules would be the rules and I would expect the DNC to follow them.

That being said, if Sanders and his people want to go to the convention and politic for votes....I'm all for that too.  There's a huge swath of DNC voters, who...if Sanders' camp made concessions and felt the need to include them would have no problem voting for Sanders. 

 

[JamieMurphy]

Considering we're now three election cycles from having already elected a minority, this seems like a strange take.

Yes, true, and are we paying for it now. The backlash has been nothing short of mind-boggling.

Historically, if we look at rights or privileges afforded classes other than heterosexual white males that own land, black men came next, then women,  then marginalized communities like LGBTQ. I say this based off the order of getting the right to vote and get married.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Tom Hanks would get 85%+ of the popular vote. 

 

[sho nuff]

Tom Hanks would get 85%+ of the popular vote. 

Can Hollywood just transform him into Biden for debates and public appearances?

 

[KiddLattimer]

Question: When you imagine "the DNC" picking a candidate, what are you picturing? I kind of feel like the unspoken assumption among a lot of people here is that Perez, Obama, Hillary and a few billionaires will sit around in a smoke-filled backroom looking over polls and fundraising data and then coming to a decision. 

According to the DNC Lawyer from the 2016 lawsuit that's what they could do legally if they wanted to...

While the mainstream media has almost completely blacked out coverage of this lawsuit, Jordan Chariton has covered it for the TYT Network. He notes that in a courtroom in South Florida over a week ago, a DNC lawyer said openly that if the party wanted to do things like the old days and pick a candidate over cigars in back rooms, it would be within their legal rights to do so.

“We could have voluntarily decided that, ‘Look, we’re gonna go into back rooms like they used to and smoke cigars and pick the candidate that way,’” Bruce Spiva, lawyer for the DNC, said during a court hearing in Carol Wilding, et al. v. DNC Services Corp., according to court filings exclusively obtained by TYT Politics.

https://www.salon.com/2017/05/13/the-dncs-elephant-in-the-room-dems-have-a-problem-its-not-donald-trump/

 

[steeler6]

Wonder how Bernie supporters would react if Joe bows out and he's not the pick when he was the clear #2 choice during the primary. 

 

[sho nuff]

Wonder how Bernie supporters would react if Joe bows out and he's not the pick when he was the clear #2 choice during the primary. 

Was he the clear #2 though?  I mean if Biden was gone...would Bernie have beat out everyone else is the real question.

 

[rockaction]

Was he the clear #2 though?  I mean if Biden was gone...would Bernie have beat out everyone else is the real question.

That's a nice theoretical, but nobody that supports or supported Sanders will be satisfied with that. 

 

[steeler6]

Was he the clear #2 though?  I mean if Biden was gone...would Bernie have beat out everyone else is the real question.

If Biden was gone, I'm sure the DNC would still have found a way to torpedo Bernie's campaign. 

 

[sho nuff]

That's a nice theoretical, but nobody that supports or supported Sanders will be satisfied with that. 

I agree...that is part of the issue the DNC has right now...if Joe steps down...Sanders voters would be completely done if they don't pick him.  

 

[sho nuff]

If Biden was gone, I'm sure the DNC would still have found a way to torpedo Bernie's campaign. 

Would they have needed to?  Voters were choosing the moderates...if Joe had never been around...it appears one of the other moderate candidates would have pulled ahead as Joe did.

Nobody torpedo'd his campaign other than voters in the primaries.

 

[rockaction]

I agree...that is part of the issue the DNC has right now...if Joe steps down...Sanders voters would be completely done if they don't pick him.  

Yeah, anybody who feels passionately about radical progressive or fringe politics won't vote Democrat if they decide in a back room and give that explanation about how the election would have gone had Biden not been there. No way do they retain those voters.

 

[squistion]

If Biden was gone, I'm sure the DNC would still have found a way to torpedo Bernie's campaign. 

No they wouldn't have had to, with being an avowed Socialist who recently praised Fidel Castro, Democratic primary voters would have turned to Warren, Klobuchar, Harris or even Buttigieg (with his baggage of being openly gay) rather than go with a sure general election loser in Bernie. 

 

[steeler6]

Would they have needed to?  Voters were choosing the moderates...if Joe had never been around...it appears one of the other moderate candidates would have pulled ahead as Joe did.

Nobody torpedo'd his campaign other than voters in the primaries.

Maybe, but the timing of when the other candidates dropped out didn't help him. 

 

[sho nuff]

Yeah, anybody who feels passionately about radical progressive or fringe politics won't vote Democrat if they decide in a back room and give that explanation about how the election would have gone had Biden not been there. No way do they retain those voters.

But do moderates who voted Biden then support Sanders...they run the risk of all of that.

And I don't think it would be back room...they defnitely can't afford that.  

 

[sho nuff]

Maybe, but the timing of when the other candidates dropped out didn't help him. 

You mean when they no longer had a path to the nomination?  Are other candidates supposed to help him?

 

[rockaction]

But do moderates who voted Biden then support Sanders...they run the risk of all of that.

And I don't think it would be back room...they defnitely can't afford that.  

Yes, they do. There's no neat solution, it's messy, and that's likely why it's a subject of discussion. Both sides feel passionate one way or the other about Sanders's progressivism.

 

[steeler6]

You mean when they no longer had a path to the nomination?  Are other candidates supposed to help him?

Warren was done before Super Tuesday but didn't drop out till after. 

 

[rockaction]

Warren was done before Super Tuesday but didn't drop out till after. 

It shouldn't be surprising that those who have a "D" before their affiliation help out intra-party members rather than those that merely caucus.

 

[TLEF316]

Agreed Re: Bernie. A lot of his followers are lunatics, but I think they know deep down that he was beaten fair and square. Yes, the other moderates coordinated their drop out, but at the end of the day, that's the platform that a majority of the party wants.  Yeah, Pete and Amy and others cleared the deck, but it was the right thing to do and it would have been bad if Bernie only won because others held on too long siphoning off votes.

Now, if Joe were to drop out and Bernie STILL wasn't the nominee,  I think you'd see a huge revolt from his hardcore supporters. And there's no way they're showing up in November then (still not sure they will now, but that's a whole other issue).  At that point, they'll feel they're "getting screwed again" (and I dont think that's a COMPLETELY illogical stance) and you've lost them.

As to the actual question from the poll, I have no freaking idea.  I know who I'd LIKE to be the candidate,  (Pete, because I think his persona would drive Trump INSANE on the debate stage. I dont think he's QUITE ready to lead yet. Needs to do something more important than be a mayor for the next 4-8 years) but  have no idea who they'd actually pick or how they'd justify it. Gun to my head, I'd guess they'd pick Klobochar.   She'd do the best in debates and that's what a LOT of people care about (no idea why....as the ability to debate has absolutely nothing to do with being President of the United States)

 

[huthut]

I think people are attributing too much of the political awareness of people that post here to other people, and assuming everyone is making logical/rational choices based on their political alignment. 90% of the country gets their news from facebook posts and doesn't know anything. Looking at second choice voting from this poll from February, Sanders is the highest second choice voting candidate of Biden voters, and Sanders is the 3rd choice for Bloomberg voters. I am not pointing this out to argue they should choose Sanders, I am pointing it out because it does not make political sense based on where they stand on the issues when there are other people listed that are more closely aligned with the first choice. It does not make a difference if the DNC replaces Biden with someones policy issues most similar to his, because that was never something most people were consistent or knowledgeable about anyway.

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/fairvote/pages/19783/attachments/original/1582902303/SecondChoiceTable.png?1582902303