If the 2006 draft were held today (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

Off the charts

Colston's skill did not compute, but then he got on the field

08:13 PM CST on Saturday, December 2, 2006

April is all about potential in the NFL. September is all about productivity. NFL teams draft measurables in April – but it's the football players who get on the field in September, regardless of what draft round they arrive in.

Which explains why wide receiver Marques Colston is starting for the New Orleans Saints and is front-runner for NFL Rookie of the Year honors as the season heads into its final month.

Colston was an afterthought on most NFL draft boards last April, sliding into the seventh round. The Saints grabbed him with the 252nd pick of the 255-pick draft. Thirty-three receivers were selected before Colston.

But when he got onto the practice field in training camp, it didn't matter that Colston lacked Maurice Stovall's size, Santonio Holmes' speed and Sinorice Moss' big-school pedigree. So impressive was Colston in August that the Saints traded away lead receiver Donte Stallworth to create a starting spot for him.

Colston has been even better in the season than he was in preseason. He has caught 54 passes for 869 yards and seven touchdowns. He ranks 20th in the NFL in receiving despite missing the last two games with a sprained ankle.

If the NFL could redraft the Class of 2006 based on rookie season productivity, Colston would shoot to the top of the board. He'd have gone to Houston on the first overall pick – not North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams.

If NFL teams could restack their draft boards today based on rookie productivity rather than college potential, there would be a slew of different choices in the first round.

Alabama defensive end Mark Anderson, a fifth-round pick of the Bears, would be up there with his eight sacks. So would college teammate Demeco Ryans, a second-round pick of the Texans, with his 99 tackles, which rank third in the NFL.

Punter Ryan Plackemeir, a seventh-round pick by Seattle, would be up there with his 37.3-yard net punting average, as would running back Mike Bell. He wasn't even drafted out of Arizona – but leads the 7-4 Broncos with five rushing touchdowns.

IF THEY KNEW THEN WHAT THEY KNOW NOW ...

Based on 11 games of productivity, NFL writer Rick Gosselin redrafts last April's Class of 2006 (draft round in parentheses if not a first-rounder):

Rd., team Actual pick Redraft pick

1. Houston DE Mario Williams WR Marques Colston (7)

2. New Orleans RB Reggie Bush RB Joseph Addai

3. Tennessee QB Vince Young LB A.J. Hawk

4. N.Y. Jets OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson OT Marcus McNeill (2)

5. Green Bay LB A.J. Hawk LB Demeco Ryans (2)

6. San Francisco TE Vernon Davis DE Tamba Hali

7. Oakland S Michael Huff S Dawan Landry (5)

8. Buffalo S Donte Whitner DE Mark Anderson (5)

9. Detroit LB Ernie Sims RB Maurice Jones-Drew (2)

10. Arizona QB Matt Leinart LB Kamerion Wimbley

11. Denver QB Jay Cutler OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson

12. Baltimore DT Haloti Ngata CB Richard Marshall (2)

13. Cleveland LB Kamerion Wimbley LB Ernie Sims

14. Philadelphia DT Brodrick Bunkley RB Laurence Maroney

15. St. Louis CB Tye Hill DE Mario Williams

16. Miami S Jason Allen DT Haloti Ngata

17. Minnesota LB Chad Greenway S Antoine Bethea (6)

18. Dallas LB Bobby Carpenter RB Reggie Bush

19. San Diego CB Antonio Cromartie S Donte Whitner

20. Kansas City DE Tamba Hali KR Devin Hester (2)

21. New England RB Laurence Maroney WR Greg Jennings (2)

22. San Francisco DE Manny Lawson C Nick Mangold

23. Tampa Bay G Davin Joseph QB Bruce Gradkowski (6)

24. Cincinnati CB Jonathan Joseph S Daniel Bullocks (2)

25. Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes QB Vince Young

26. Buffalo DT John McCargo TE Owen Daniels (4)

27. Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams HB Wali Lundy (6)

28. Jacksonville TE Marcedes Lewis P Ryan Plackemeier (7)

29. N.Y. Jets C Nick Mangold DT Barry Cofield (4)

30. Indianapolis RB Joseph Addai RB Mike Bell (FA)

31. Seattle CB Kelly Jennings QB Matt Leinart

32. N.Y. Giants DE Mathias Kiwanuka DE Elvis Dumervil (4)

I don't like where he's got the QBs -- Gradkowski ahead of Leinart and Young? But an interesting list anyway.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Interesting concept, but poor execution I think. Like the OP said, Gradkowski ahead of Leinart and Young makes no sense. Maroney behind Addai and MJD also doesn't seem right to me at all.

It also doesn't appear that he even considered team need at all.

 

[biggamer3]

way off IMO on most of the redraft picks.

Even after 11 games Bush would have gone no later than 3 after Colton and Addia

 

[weisguy0831]

he clearly states its based on 11 games of PRODUCTIVITY. that's all.

 

[aposulli]

he clearly states its based on 11 games of PRODUCTIVITY. that's all.

What an idiotic basis.This has been done on this board in the "where would Colston go if the draft were today?" thread about 5 weeks ago.Has Gradkowski even put up bigger numbers than Leinart and Young?

 

[Raider Nation]

If the draft was held today, NOBODY would take Colston @ 1.01. Not even the Saints.

Thanks for your time.

 

[aposulli]

he clearly states its based on 11 games of PRODUCTIVITY. that's all.

What an idiotic basis.This has been done on this board in the "where would Colston go if the draft were today?" thread about 5 weeks ago.

Has Gradkowski even put up bigger numbers than Leinart and Young?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=5864673

 

[thatguy]

Rick Gosselin is a moron. Wow, this guy gets paid for this? Wow. I feel like punching this guy in the face.

 

[The Jacket]

Why the ##### would the Chiefs draft a kick returner?

 

[SproutDaddy]

Why the ##### would the Chiefs draft a kick returner?

You're a tard!

 

[Slingblade]

No way the Titans don't take Young.

Edit: This article is absolutley ######ed.

 

[The Jacket]

You're a tard!

Not nearly like yourself and Rick Gosselin.

 

[nerangers]

It was a fluff article trying to prove a point showing that how you played in College does not always equate how you will play in the NFL. Marques Colston was a definite gem this season, but he was given the opportunity to perform. I am sure the writer knows that no team would draft based on 11 weeks of production alone. Teams draft on need. Players get ranked this way on opportunity to be productive.

The article would have been better if he took the current rankings he came up with based on current productivity and designed the draft listing based on the needs of the team back in April. I think it would have given the author more merit as a writer. It is definitely unfair at the QB level since most of rookies didn't even start the season.

There are always going to be players that perform much better than where they were drafted. It usually takes a few years to spot them though (i.e. Tom Brady).

 

[cr8f]

Interesting concept, but poor execution I think. Like the OP said, Gradkowski ahead of Leinart and Young makes no sense. Maroney behind Addai and MJD also doesn't seem right to me at all.It also doesn't appear that he even considered team need at all.

Greg Jennings and Colston would be neck and neck but for the injury. Drafts are long term results affairs and he isn't considering that.

 

[Sabertooth]

Glad the Packers have 2 guys in there.

 

[stbugs]

Interesting concept, but poor execution I think. Like the OP said, Gradkowski ahead of Leinart and Young makes no sense. Maroney behind Addai and MJD also doesn't seem right to me at all.It also doesn't appear that he even considered team need at all.

Greg Jennings and Colston would be neck and neck but for the injury. Drafts are long term results affairs and he isn't considering that.

No, not really even close. According to the stats, Jennings has a catch in 10 games and has only missed 1 game. I don't know the details, so maybe he got hurt early in the Miami game, so let's say he has basically played 9 games.Colston also has basically played in the same 9 games, but has 63% more receptions, 55% more yards, and 133% more TDs. In my PPR league, Colston is WR9 and Jennings is WR36.I think what you are remembering is that before Jennings got hurt, they were pretty close, say through week 5, but that is ignoring Colston's best games. I remember them being pretty close because I remember trying to decide who to pickup. I wish I could have picked up both, but I didn't have enough roster space to pick up more than one guy. Luckily, I picked the right one, for a few weeks at least. ETA: Also, if you really think Jennings has better long term appeal, then I think that they aren't even as close as they are now. All of the key cogs in the NO offense just started or are in their second year of long term deals. The key cog (Favre) in the GB offense, might not even be there. Would you rather have Brees/Colston or Rodgers/Jennings?

 

[diesel7982]

Reading that just made me mad at life.

 

[TheFanatic]

Interesting concept, but poor execution I think. Like the OP said, Gradkowski ahead of Leinart and Young makes no sense. Maroney behind Addai and MJD also doesn't seem right to me at all.

It also doesn't appear that he even considered team need at all.

No kidding. What use do the Steelers have for Vince Young. Do they want to get into another slash situation? Why do the cowboys need another RB?

 

[MLBrandow]

I really look forward to the guy who does these every year and last year's was a great read. I don't think this is the same guy who author'd the ones I've read in the past.

Having said that, this was stupid.

 

[Slider]

Why all the negativity? Might be better than it was in April. I found it a little interesting.

 

[bentley]

Why all the negativity? Might be better than it was in April. I found it a little interesting.

I expect more out of Gosselin. He usually seems to have a better leaguewide perspective than just about every other "hometown" NFL writer.

 

[hove]

Rick Gosselin is a moron. Wow, this guy gets paid for this? Wow. I feel like punching this guy in the face.

I know Rick, I went to college with his wife at North Texas.I'd put Rick's predictions for the draft over the last 20 years up against ANYONE. A few years back he nailed 27-28 of the 32 picks - including the first 14 I believe. The guy just plain knows the NFL better than any newspaper writer going.

 

[GregR_2]

If he's basing it on productivity it makes no sense to have AJ Hawk ahead of Demeco Ryans.