T
The Ghost of Common
Guest
Why wouldn't you just wait and take Ichiro 3 rounds later?
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Eephus
Footballguy
Ichiro has advantage in AVG & R (assuming Crawford stays in the middle of the order)Crawford has advantage in SB, HR & RBICrawford has higher upside but probably more risk.A delta of 10-15 SBs could mean a couple of points in the final standings.
Knightro
Footballguy
The steals are a difference. Over the last 3 years, Ichiro has averaged 38 a season while CC has averaged 51. Crawford also has much more power potential so while you're sacrificing batting average, you're gaining speed and power, and CC is hitting his statistical prime years.
Here is a link to a sheet I did comparing the 2 players over the last 3 years
Greco
Footballguy
I think if you knew you could get Ichiro in round 4, which is 3 rounds later than round 1, where I suspect Crawford to go, you could pass on Crawford and grab a Jimmy Rollins or a Johan Santanna and live with Ichiro. I don't suspect, however, that Ichiro will be around 3 rounds later than Crawford is drafted. ***Disclaimer- I am not a very successful fantasy baseball manager.
pantagrapher
Footballguy
Replace Ichiro with Juan Pierre and you have a much better premise.
Not really Pierre is garbage. I question taking Sizemore in round 2 when you can get Hart in round 6
RenegadeGM
Footballguy
Not if the Dodgers decide to give Ethier full time ABs and go with an outfield of Ethier, Jones and Kemp... leaving Pierre on the bench.
Greco
Footballguy
I agree it is a MUCH better premise. I also think Torre will not run Pierre and this will greatly devalue him.
pantagrapher
Footballguy
A guy who bats around .300, steals 50 bases, scores nearly 100 runs and is usually available in the 10th round is garbage?I call that value.
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Knightro
Footballguy
Pierre is absolute garbage in the other 2 categories which hurts his value. Couple that with the playing time hit he is going to take as long as he remains a Dodger (what a horrible contract), and Pierre should not even be considered until the teen rounds. In 350 at bats, he could steal 30-35 bases, but his RBI total will be half that and he isn't going to hit a HR.
Pnishthm
Footballguy
I see Crawford going on average early 2nd while Ichiro is going on average late 2nd. At Mockdraftcentral.com Crawford's ADP is 14 while Ichiro's is 23rd. The OP should have stopped after all his ranking that look very similar to just about every mag I have read so far.
The Kansas Comet
Footballguy
If Torre doesn't run Pierre, he might as well not play him. He offers sub-par defense, OBP, and power. The only thing he offers the Dodgers is the ability to run on the rare occasions he reaches first. I hope Pierre is sitting on the bench most of the season, getting only the occasional start.
PIK95
Footballguy
Dude, check out when Torre managed the cards in the early 90's. Gregg Jefferies stole 46 bases on year. Torre loves to run.
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You can't steal 1st, and until they change the rules to allow it, Pierre has very limited value in almost any fantasy format.
Knightro
Footballguy
I believe Torre's SB tendencies are league specific - and talent specific. He didn't have to manufacture many runs with those Yankee lineups and not many of them were terribly fast enough to run with. In the NL, you have to do more running without the DH. Plus, he had guys in StL like Ozzie, Gilkey, Lankford, while lacking the sluggers he had in NY. Hell, in 93, the only guy who hit more than 17 HRs on that team was Mark Whiten with 25. The Cardinals for about 15 years there had this philosophy of having one slugger hit cleanup and put a bunch of gazelles in front of him.
Statorama
Footballguy
Boy did that bring back some instant memories
pantagrapher
Footballguy
Unless you're in an OBP league, what does it matter? The guy has had a crappy OBP his entire career and he still gives you decent average and runs and a bunch of steals. And he's available late in drafts. Steals guys almost always kill you in a couple categories, especially the ones available late. Balancing the decision to target Pierre is part of roto.Pierre could well provide better value than Crawford this season.
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Knightro
Footballguy
How? He hasn't done that in the last 3 years. Pierre would have to be taken in the mid to late teens to have any true value. He is such a killer in HR and RBI for an OF, the only way to offset that is with a lot of steals and runs. If he isn't playing near 500 ABs, he can't do it. He becomes the Herb Washington of fantasyland. Runs created per 27 outs
Batting Average
Slugging percentage
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Insoxicated
While the charts are cool
, you're comparing some rather obscure stats with regards to fantasy baseball. You'll never hear my saying I love the guy... or that he's half the player Crawford is... but sticking solely to the 5 categories I think Pierre does provide pretty good value in a 5x5 league IF:• You've managed to build a monster lineup of sluggers already• You find yourself short on SBs.
Pierre is certainly not a desirable guy... nor is he someone I'd target. But there are circumstances where he does provide a bit of value. Now if you're in a league that has SLG% or Runs Created then obviously he's going to become even less valuable..
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Knightro
Footballguy
I use slugging to show power and runs created to show overall offensive value.
You are right in that you have to surround Pierre with a lot of big bats in the outfield to offset his near 0's in HR and RBI. I'd rather take my chances on speed only guys from the MI spot where it is more acceptable than in the OF because there are so few empty speedsters like Pierre.
You are right in that you have to surround Pierre with a lot of big bats in the outfield to offset his near 0's in HR and RBI. I'd rather take my chances on speed only guys from the MI spot where it is more acceptable than in the OF because there are so few empty speedsters like Pierre.
Pierre is battling Andre Ethier for playing time. Even if he wins that battle he is likely on a very short leash. When you are a bad player with a single skill set, your lifespan as a full-time MLBer is not very long. He is on the wrong-side of 30, not in the right era (steroid), and has better players pushing him for playing time. Let someone else take the risk.
pantagrapher
Footballguy
So far this spring, Ethier is competing with Kemp for playing time in right with Pierre starting almost every game in left. Will that carry on throughout the season? Who knows, but it certainly indicates that Pierre is safe in left for the time being.For the record though, I started this as a Devil's Advocate proposition (one that I thought was a better debate than Crawford/Ichiro). I'm not waving the flag for Pierre, but I do think that Crawford tends to be overvalued.
