I'm just going to wait for the last one to fall in the draft (1 Viewer)

[Sabertooth]

I'm seeing a lot of "I'm going to take X player later on."

I see it when discussing the Detroit running backs, Tennessee and Oakland wideouts, etc.

I'm not sure this is as great a strategy as people think. Whatever happened to selecting the player you want instead of taking league leftovers? I mean Damian Williams isn't going to win your league for you? I understand value and all of that but this seems like a very flimsy strategy. I don't recall seeing this so much last season.

 

[th3f00l]

I would argue that this strategy is actually getting the player you want at the value you think is appropriate for that position, arguing one player's inflated ADP vs another's value at current ADP.

For example, once the top couple guys for each position come off the draft board, the projected difference between the player you take in the fourth and the player you take in the sixth at that position isn't that great (i.e. passing on Antonio Gates as your TE#1 in the late fourth-early fifth and selecting Witten or Finley in the sixth).

It is kind of the reverse of the "best player available at position of need" mentality. Lets say in the example above you went RB-RB-WR-QB. You have the option to spend that pick on Gates or add depth at WR. If you believe that Witten or Finley will have an equal or better season than Gates, then you might say "I'm going to take player X later on"

The same strategy applies throughout the draft. The pitfall of this strategy is that you may have to use your pick earlier than the player's ADP to ensure that you do get them.

 

[Sweet Love]

I think this is "normal talk" for this time of the year...the cream always seems to rise just a week or so before "normal" drafts (late August/early Sept.), so what people say now, will change after they have marinated on the guy they want for 2-3 months and realize that they just can't wait to take him in the 10th and find themselves with him on the roster in Round 6-7...not a bad thing, just that there are "FF Beer Muscles" this time of year of where you can get your guy, but unless you are drafting now, the really good ones, always rise a couple of rounds.

 

[Shutout]

I would argue that this strategy is actually getting the player you want at the value you think is appropriate for that position, arguing one player's inflated ADP vs another's value at current ADP.

For example, once the top couple guys for each position come off the draft board, the projected difference between the player you take in the fourth and the player you take in the sixth at that position isn't that great (i.e. passing on Antonio Gates as your TE#1 in the late fourth-early fifth and selecting Witten or Finley in the sixth).

It is kind of the reverse of the "best player available at position of need" mentality. Lets say in the example above you went RB-RB-WR-QB. You have the option to spend that pick on Gates or add depth at WR. If you believe that Witten or Finley will have an equal or better season than Gates, then you might say "I'm going to take player X later on"

The same strategy applies throughout the draft. The pitfall of this strategy is that you may have to use your pick earlier than the player's ADP to ensure that you do get them.

Only problem to that is "sometimes you get what you pay for". I've seen what the OP is talking about and my take is a lot of people are trying to be clever because they just think "player X" isn't worth "that high of a pick". Well, as we have noticed the past few years, some offensive records are being broken shattered each season. So, in today's NFL (and FF), some guys ARE worth it and if you don't use that high pick on them, you simply get what you pay for. Go ahead and say its too high for Graham or Cruz, and all the others. but don't be the same guy posting here in Week 9 asking everyone "Is this good enough to get one of these guys cause I'm getting killed at this position every week".

We delve into this stuff like we are curing Alzheimer's or something but in the end its pretty simple: If the Vast majority of knowledgeable Fantasy players think that gronkowski is a super high pick because he produces at a rate that dwarfs 97% of the TEs you can possibly draft and put against him, then it might be a good idea to get the guy IF your league decides wins based on the amount of points scored.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

We delve into this stuff like we are curing Alzheimer's or something but in the end its pretty simple: If the Vast majority of knowledgeable Fantasy players think that gronkowski is a super high pick because he produces at a rate that dwarfs 97% of the TEs you can possibly draft and put against him, then it might be a good idea to get the guy IF your league decides wins based on the amount of points scored.

Exactly. Sure, it is nice to get a WR3 at WR6 price, but that isn't likely winning your league. There is nothing wrong with getting a WR1/2 at the WR1/2 price.I understand the risk/reward aspect of drafting Kevin Smith later instead of Jahvid Best earlier... but if Best hits, you might have a great fantasy starter, whereas if Smith hits you will still only have a pretty good player.

 

[LawFitz]

I think this is "normal talk" for this time of the year...the cream always seems to rise just a week or so before "normal" drafts (late August/early Sept.), so what people say now, will change after they have marinated on the guy they want for 2-3 months and realize that they just can't wait to take him in the 10th and find themselves with him on the roster in Round 6-7...not a bad thing, just that there are "FF Beer Muscles" this time of year of where you can get your guy, but unless you are drafting now, the really good ones, always rise a couple of rounds.

I would add to your point by saying that players also rise as drafts approach b/c drafters review the latest ADP lists, then jump a round compared to ADP for their targeted guys. This in turn pushes the ADPs even higher and the hottest sleepers can move up several rounds, especially in the later drafts. Arian Foster two years ago was the prime example of this. His ADP moved from rd 8 to rd 3 in the course of about six weeks as this dynamic played itself out.I envision guys like McGahee, Helu, Hillis, Harvin, AHernandez, DMoore, RMoss and others rising a round or two from today's ADP by this time next month.

 

[th3f00l]

I would argue that this strategy is actually getting the player you want at the value you think is appropriate for that position, arguing one player's inflated ADP vs another's value at current ADP.

For example, once the top couple guys for each position come off the draft board, the projected difference between the player you take in the fourth and the player you take in the sixth at that position isn't that great (i.e. passing on Antonio Gates as your TE#1 in the late fourth-early fifth and selecting Witten or Finley in the sixth).

It is kind of the reverse of the "best player available at position of need" mentality. Lets say in the example above you went RB-RB-WR-QB. You have the option to spend that pick on Gates or add depth at WR. If you believe that Witten or Finley will have an equal or better season than Gates, then you might say "I'm going to take player X later on"

The same strategy applies throughout the draft. The pitfall of this strategy is that you may have to use your pick earlier than the player's ADP to ensure that you do get them.

Only problem to that is "sometimes you get what you pay for". I've seen what the OP is talking about and my take is a lot of people are trying to be clever because they just think "player X" isn't worth "that high of a pick". Well, as we have noticed the past few years, some offensive records are being broken shattered each season. So, in today's NFL (and FF), some guys ARE worth it and if you don't use that high pick on them, you simply get what you pay for. Go ahead and say its too high for Graham or Cruz, and all the others. but don't be the same guy posting here in Week 9 asking everyone "Is this good enough to get one of these guys cause I'm getting killed at this position every week".

We delve into this stuff like we are curing Alzheimer's or something but in the end its pretty simple: If the Vast majority of knowledgeable Fantasy players think that gronkowski is a super high pick because he produces at a rate that dwarfs 97% of the TEs you can possibly draft and put against him, then it might be a good idea to get the guy IF your league decides wins based on the amount of points scored.

Your point is well taken, but Gronk was not ranked where he is now in last year's draft. And the argument isn't against the elite players, but the one's that you believe will have similar value to later picks.EX:

The top 5 drafted TE's in 2011 were Gates, Finley, Witten, Clark, and Davis.

The top 5 ranked at the end of the year were Gronk, Graham, Hernandez, Gonzales, and Finley

So selecting Antonio Gates as the first TE of the board did not pay off as much as selecting Jimmy Graham as the eighth. Of course it is generous to say that people foresaw the production that Graham would have. At the same value you spent to get Gates you could have chosen Tony Romo, Dwayne Bowe, or Ahmad Bradshaw.

This of course would be an example of this strategy actually working, there are plenty of examples where it doesn't. The same argument can be made for picking straight chalk. Passing on a player you think has inflated value and targeting a sleeper pick in the later rounds is fairly common. There are always those guys not ranked even in the top ten pre season that finish top 5, and the guys ranked top 5 that miss the top 10.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think this is "normal talk" for this time of the year...the cream always seems to rise just a week or so before "normal" drafts (late August/early Sept.), so what people say now, will change after they have marinated on the guy they want for 2-3 months and realize that they just can't wait to take him in the 10th and find themselves with him on the roster in Round 6-7...not a bad thing, just that there are "FF Beer Muscles" this time of year of where you can get your guy, but unless you are drafting now, the really good ones, always rise a couple of rounds.

Great posting. This is exactly what I mean.

 

[Dragon1952]

I think this is "normal talk" for this time of the year...the cream always seems to rise just a week or so before "normal" drafts (late August/early Sept.), so what people say now, will change after they have marinated on the guy they want for 2-3 months and realize that they just can't wait to take him in the 10th and find themselves with him on the roster in Round 6-7...not a bad thing, just that there are "FF Beer Muscles" this time of year of where you can get your guy, but unless you are drafting now, the really good ones, always rise a couple of rounds.

Sounds kinky.