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I'm starting Jason Campbell over _________ this week. (1 Viewer)

Hurl Bruce

Hurl Bruce

Footballguy
Picked up Jason Campbell to go up against the Giants this week. Am I crazy?

I had already dropped Carson Palmer and picked up Alex Smith to go with Vince Young, but I don't trust Young's health (he was my original plan against Miami) and Smith is going to get blitzed to death by the Eagles.

Dodds has Campbell at #6 this week. It's just hard to get over the mental picture I have of Campbell sucking it up so often for the Skins.

Anybody else in a bad way with their QB's and starting him?

 
Over Palmer...

As an FYI, Giants defense last 8 games has given up 282 Passing Yards/Game and 2.4 Passing TD's/Game. They have gone up against some tough passing match-ups, but 282 is alot of yards.

Over his last 7 games Campbell has:

249 Passing Yards/Game

11:6 TD/INT ratio

65.1% Completion Rate

7.44 YPA

...seems like a sneaky play.

 
Probably over Favre @ CAR as the Panthers seem to be pretty good against the pass and shut down Brady last week.

 
Over Cutler/Garrard.. easy decision for me.. QB has killed me this year so hopefully I don't jinx anyone starting Campbell this week..

 
Same for me, Campbell over Big Ben and V.Young.My first time starting him all year, hope this doesn't

bite me in the ###.

 
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Thought about it a little, but going w/ Romo @ NO on Saturday or maybe McNabb vs. SF on Sunday. I like that he's playing well though - maybe he'll become decent dynasty trade bait in the off season. Though the pending coaching change in WAS means yet another system for this poor guy to learn.

WAS won't be very successful running the ball, so he'll certainly get plenty of opps. Not sure how he'll deal w/ the MNF pressure vs. a strong divisional opponent though. Over options like Gerrard, etc. mentioned here - by all means. I'll dial up some :bow: and :) for you guys.

GL.

 
Over Big Ben and Garrard. I just think that Big Ben against a VERY good GB D is going to get sacked and chased around constantly. We'll see. It's a tough call.

 
You crazy. Step back and think for one second: you are starting Campbell over Brady? That is not a case where you consider matchups or anything else. You start Brady unless he is injured.

 
thecardiackid said:
Thought about it a little, but going w/ Romo @ NO on Saturday or maybe McNabb vs. SF on Sunday. I like that he's playing well though - maybe he'll become decent dynasty trade bait in the off season. Though the pending coaching change in WAS means yet another system for this poor guy to learn.

WAS won't be very successful running the ball, so he'll certainly get plenty of opps. Not sure how he'll deal w/ the MNF pressure vs. a strong divisional opponent though. Over options like Gerrard, etc. mentioned here - by all means. I'll dial up some :ptts: and :rant: for you guys.

GL.
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:yucky: He's not a rookie, or even close to it. He's made plenty of starts against strong divisional opponents in his career.

Of course, he stunk it up in most of those starts, but he usually stunk it up in his other games too. No reason to think that whatever light bulb has lit up in his head in the last five weeks will suddenly go out just because he's playing the Giants on a Monday night. He'll be in front of a home crowd that will probably be among the most enthusiastic of the season for the Skins, now that the team is finally playing with some passion AND they just fired the most hated man in the city.

 
TWP said:
You crazy. Step back and think for one second: you are starting Campbell over Brady? That is not a case where you consider matchups or anything else. You start Brady unless he is injured.
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Brady is injured. And Campbell is most definitely the smarter play than Brady. I'm a pats fan but it's pretty obvious brady is hurt and the Pats offense is NOT clicking. Meanwhile Campbell has scored nearly TWICE as many points as Brady over the last 3 weeks. Campbell: 23/31/24 points the last 3 weeks (78 points) - Ranked #6 this week by FBGBrady: 12/24/8 points the last 3 weeks (44 points) - Ranked #13 this week by FBGAlways start your studs is a good point of reference. However blindly following it without considering emerging trends and exterior factors is NOT the right way to play this game.
 
banjomatic said:
Over Brady (@BUF)?!?!is this insane? Could the bright lights of MNF bring out the best in Campbell?
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No. Campbell has outscored Brady almost 2-1 over the last 3 weeks and Brady isn't showing any signs of getting healthy (see yesterday's practice report) I am starting Peyton over Campbell but it is NOT an easy decision. I am starting Campbell for Brady in another league (did last week as well).
 
I'd be happy to place bets with people on Brady vs. Campbell. And since Brady is rated so much worse this week, it sounds like you guys would be willing to give me odds!

Sure Brady is dinged up. Sure the offense hasn't been clicking. But he's still Brady and still has a higher expectation than Campbell. Brady would have scored higher than Campbell had just a few passes been a few inches different. Obviously you can say that any time, but it seems to me from watching the games that Campbell has benefited from more good luck and Brady has suffered from more bad luck. In terms of predictive power, I'm not seeing the last three weeks as too important.

 
I probably don't have the nads to do it, but I was seriously giving thought to starting Campbell over Brady this weekend. If Brady is 100% healthy and the weather wasn't a factor, I wouldn't consider this in a million years. I also start Randy AND Welker, so figured it might be smart to not put all my eggs in the NE basket. Is that nuts?

 
TWP said:
I'd be happy to place bets with people on Brady vs. Campbell. And since Brady is rated so much worse this week, it sounds like you guys would be willing to give me odds!

Sure Brady is dinged up. Sure the offense hasn't been clicking. But he's still Brady and still has a higher expectation than Campbell. Brady would have scored higher than Campbell had just a few passes been a few inches different. Obviously you can say that any time, but it seems to me from watching the games that Campbell has benefited from more good luck and Brady has suffered from more bad luck. In terms of predictive power, I'm not seeing the last three weeks as too important.
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Career-wise. yes. What about this week makes you think Brady has a higher "expectation" than Campbell? Seems all the experts disagree... as do I. I'm curious for specific reasons behind your logic in overlooking Brady's recent performance (and Campbell's superior numbers lately).

I'm a pats fan as well (grew up in Boston) and own Brady in one league... but there's no way I start him this week over Campbell.

 
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TWP said:
I'd be happy to place bets with people on Brady vs. Campbell. And since Brady is rated so much worse this week, it sounds like you guys would be willing to give me odds!Sure Brady is dinged up. Sure the offense hasn't been clicking. But he's still Brady and still has a higher expectation than Campbell. Brady would have scored higher than Campbell had just a few passes been a few inches different. Obviously you can say that any time, but it seems to me from watching the games that Campbell has benefited from more good luck and Brady has suffered from more bad luck. In terms of predictive power, I'm not seeing the last three weeks as too important.
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I often find that the best fantasy football advice comes from homers. Especially Patriot homers, who are historically very dispassionate and reasoned when it comes to discussion of their team, and especially Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.Don't mean to bust your chops, guy ... but this is about who's gonna score more points this weekend, not who is a better QB. Not saying you're wrong or right .. but saying that the last three weeks aren't important compared to historical performance when trying to predict this week doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Otherwise people would be starting, say, Brandon Jacobs over Jamaal Charles. Is that also a move you'd support?
 
I would have thought what I was saying was pretty clear, but I'll try to clarify.

Brady is more talented. Brady has better receivers. Brady has a better offensive line. Without the last three weeks, everybody would be instantly starting Brady over Campbell. The difference is large.

Now we have three weeks where Brady has not put up good numbers and where Campbell has. The claim, therefore, is that the last three weeks are predictive enough to sway what was the status quo. I'm claiming that it isn't. There have been many close calls that went against Brady over the past three weeks that I would not bet on repeating. Things like Brady throwing a pick towards Moss in the endzone with 1-on-1 coverage. Typically, you'll see 4+ points out of that situation. In the past three weeks, you saw -2. But THIS week, I'd bet that you are more likely to see 4+ points.

There also is wide disagreement about how Moss will perform this week. Personally I think he'll explode. So, yes, I understand the stats that people are going on when they say that Brady and Moss will have a down week and that Campbell will have an up week. But there is such thing as mean reversion because there is such thing as luck. Yes, I'm a homer. I'm also generally dispassionate and analytical in my player evaluations. I have been watching Brady for a long time and Moss for a decent while as well. I expect a big game from them (at least on par with historical norms, as opposed to on par with the past three weeks).

For those that disagree, I am very serious about being willing to wager on this topic. Obviously that fact doesnt make me more right or more wrong but I'm just trying to demonstrate that this is not a PATRIOTS RULE driven opinion. Even thought the Patriots rule, obviously.

 
This conversation has to now focused on only one side of the ball. Looking at the opponents:

The Bills have the #5 pass defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed, and the #2 pass defense in terms of TDs allowed.

The Giants are #9 in yards and #26 (!) in TDs.

 
TD32 said:
maybe Rivers. :lmao:
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I might be starting him over Rivers and Alex Smith as well. It's a point per completion and PPR league, so I like my chances with Campbell. No one put up a lot of points vs the Bengals yet, and with the Vikes did, it was on the ground and not through the air. The only hope I'd have is if Rivers ditched the vertical game for short passes. Injuries have killed me knocking Ronnie Brown off my team and Michael Turner out of my line up. I'm hoping to hit a home run with Campbell with Arian Foster and Chris Jennings as my starting running backs!
 
TWP said:
I would have thought what I was saying was pretty clear, but I'll try to clarify.Brady is more talented. Brady has better receivers. Brady has a better offensive line. Without the last three weeks, everybody would be instantly starting Brady over Campbell. The difference is large.Now we have three weeks where Brady has not put up good numbers and where Campbell has. The claim, therefore, is that the last three weeks are predictive enough to sway what was the status quo. I'm claiming that it isn't. There have been many close calls that went against Brady over the past three weeks that I would not bet on repeating. Things like Brady throwing a pick towards Moss in the endzone with 1-on-1 coverage. Typically, you'll see 4+ points out of that situation. In the past three weeks, you saw -2. But THIS week, I'd bet that you are more likely to see 4+ points.There also is wide disagreement about how Moss will perform this week. Personally I think he'll explode. So, yes, I understand the stats that people are going on when they say that Brady and Moss will have a down week and that Campbell will have an up week. But there is such thing as mean reversion because there is such thing as luck. Yes, I'm a homer. I'm also generally dispassionate and analytical in my player evaluations. I have been watching Brady for a long time and Moss for a decent while as well. I expect a big game from them (at least on par with historical norms, as opposed to on par with the past three weeks). For those that disagree, I am very serious about being willing to wager on this topic. Obviously that fact doesnt make me more right or more wrong but I'm just trying to demonstrate that this is not a PATRIOTS RULE driven opinion. Even thought the Patriots rule, obviously.
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:yes: The campbell optimism in this thread is going to fail bigtime imo.
 
TWP said:
For those that disagree, I am very serious about being willing to wager on this topic. Obviously that fact doesnt make me more right or more wrong but I'm just trying to demonstrate that this is not a PATRIOTS RULE driven opinion. Even thought the Patriots rule, obviously.
Click to expand...
And your thoughts on Buffalo allowing 4 Passing TDs since week 4? They're currently the #5 Passing Defense (yards) or #2 passing Defense (TDs) depending on how you look at it. I'm not saying Brady isn't going to get his, but this team is NOT firing on all cylinders right now. Brady's finger/rib injuries are clearly still bothering him. At some point you consider 1/4 of a NFL season to be a trend (Where brady has finished around 20th among NFL QBs), especially when a likely cause for the problem (injury) is still in the picture. You're willing to wager on this... that's good. What are we betting? $50 that brady finishes behind campbell in standard fantasy scoring this week? Each paypal to Clayton Gray (mod) to hold it prior to Sunday. I too am very serious about being willing to wager on this top. I won't even ask for odds.. which apparently I should be doing since Brady is such a superior QB to Campbell. :football: We on?ETA: This is all in good fun by the way... no puffery. Enjoying the debate as usually I'm on the side of the coin backing Brady. Tis interesting on this side. Don't like it.
 
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[icon] said:
TWP said:
For those that disagree, I am very serious about being willing to wager on this topic. Obviously that fact doesnt make me more right or more wrong but I'm just trying to demonstrate that this is not a PATRIOTS RULE driven opinion. Even thought the Patriots rule, obviously.
Click to expand...
And your thoughts on Buffalo allowing 4 Passing TDs since week 4? They're currently the #5 Passing Defense (yards) or #2 passing Defense (TDs) depending on how you look at it. I'm not saying Brady isn't going to get his, but this team is NOT firing on all cylinders right now. Brady's finger/rib injuries are clearly still bothering him. At some point you consider 1/4 of a NFL season to be a trend (Where brady has finished around 20th among NFL QBs), especially when a likely cause for the problem (injury) is still in the picture. You're willing to wager on this... that's good. What are we betting? $50 that brady finishes behind campbell in standard fantasy scoring this week? Each paypal to Clayton Gray (mod) to hold it prior to Sunday. I too am very serious about being willing to wager on this top. I won't even ask for odds.. which apparently I should be doing since Brady is such a superior QB to Campbell. :fishing: We on?ETA: This is all in good fun by the way... no puffery. Enjoying the debate as usually I'm on the side of the coin backing Brady. Tis interesting on this side. Don't like it.
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If Clayton posts or PMs that he's willing to escrow, you're on. Even odds, even though I'm taking the lower rated QB!
 
TWP said:
[icon] said:
TWP said:
For those that disagree, I am very serious about being willing to wager on this topic. Obviously that fact doesnt make me more right or more wrong but I'm just trying to demonstrate that this is not a PATRIOTS RULE driven opinion. Even thought the Patriots rule, obviously.
Click to expand...
And your thoughts on Buffalo allowing 4 Passing TDs since week 4? They're currently the #5 Passing Defense (yards) or #2 passing Defense (TDs) depending on how you look at it. I'm not saying Brady isn't going to get his, but this team is NOT firing on all cylinders right now. Brady's finger/rib injuries are clearly still bothering him. At some point you consider 1/4 of a NFL season to be a trend (Where brady has finished around 20th among NFL QBs), especially when a likely cause for the problem (injury) is still in the picture. You're willing to wager on this... that's good. What are we betting? $50 that brady finishes behind campbell in standard fantasy scoring this week? Each paypal to Clayton Gray (mod) to hold it prior to Sunday. I too am very serious about being willing to wager on this top.

I won't even ask for odds.. which apparently I should be doing since Brady is such a superior QB to Campbell. :lmao:

We on?

ETA: This is all in good fun by the way... no puffery. Enjoying the debate as usually I'm on the side of the coin backing Brady. Tis interesting on this side. Don't like it.
Click to expand...
If Clayton posts or PMs that he's willing to escrow, you're on. Even odds, even though I'm taking the lower rated QB!
Click to expand...
:lmao: and is the bolded ETA above sandbagging or a CYA just in case this goes sideways?

:lmao:

and I'll donate $25 on the Cambell side - admittedly more for some dynasty league trade-bait mojo w/ JC.

 
I'm considering him over Palmer, Young, Smith. I was planning on going with Young this week but his injury is making me consider other options. For those who said Campbell over Young, would you still do so if Young is declared OK and set to start after Fridays practice?

 
Started him over Garrard last night as my #2 QB. Still was the smart move at the time but obviously would like to have Garrards 3 TDs in the books already. But the way the g-men are playing Campbell might match it.

 
thecardiackid said:
TWP said:
[icon] said:
TWP said:
For those that disagree, I am very serious about being willing to wager on this topic. Obviously that fact doesnt make me more right or more wrong but I'm just trying to demonstrate that this is not a PATRIOTS RULE driven opinion. Even thought the Patriots rule, obviously.
Click to expand...
And your thoughts on Buffalo allowing 4 Passing TDs since week 4? They're currently the #5 Passing Defense (yards) or #2 passing Defense (TDs) depending on how you look at it. I'm not saying Brady isn't going to get his, but this team is NOT firing on all cylinders right now. Brady's finger/rib injuries are clearly still bothering him. At some point you consider 1/4 of a NFL season to be a trend (Where brady has finished around 20th among NFL QBs), especially when a likely cause for the problem (injury) is still in the picture. You're willing to wager on this... that's good. What are we betting? $50 that brady finishes behind campbell in standard fantasy scoring this week? Each paypal to Clayton Gray (mod) to hold it prior to Sunday. I too am very serious about being willing to wager on this top.

I won't even ask for odds.. which apparently I should be doing since Brady is such a superior QB to Campbell. :)

We on?

ETA: This is all in good fun by the way... no puffery. Enjoying the debate as usually I'm on the side of the coin backing Brady. Tis interesting on this side. Don't like it.
Click to expand...
If Clayton posts or PMs that he's willing to escrow, you're on. Even odds, even though I'm taking the lower rated QB!
Click to expand...
:coffee: and is the bolded ETA above sandbagging or a CYA just in case this goes sideways?

:lmao:

and I'll donate $25 on the Cambell side - admittedly more for some dynasty league trade-bait mojo w/ JC.
Click to expand...
Definitely not sandbagging. I'm a well known pats homer (search my Pool posts... I've been around for a while :lmao: ) . Grew up in boston. Just saying I'm not a big fan of my current perception that the Pats are a mess and Brady is too dinged up to orchestrate a proper playoff run. That said, I'm realistic about these things and that's how I see things (correctly or not). :lmao:

 
[icon] said:
thecardiackid said:
TWP said:
[icon] said:
TWP said:
For those that disagree, I am very serious about being willing to wager on this topic. Obviously that fact doesnt make me more right or more wrong but I'm just trying to demonstrate that this is not a PATRIOTS RULE driven opinion. Even thought the Patriots rule, obviously.
Click to expand...
And your thoughts on Buffalo allowing 4 Passing TDs since week 4? They're currently the #5 Passing Defense (yards) or #2 passing Defense (TDs) depending on how you look at it. I'm not saying Brady isn't going to get his, but this team is NOT firing on all cylinders right now. Brady's finger/rib injuries are clearly still bothering him. At some point you consider 1/4 of a NFL season to be a trend (Where brady has finished around 20th among NFL QBs), especially when a likely cause for the problem (injury) is still in the picture. You're willing to wager on this... that's good. What are we betting? $50 that brady finishes behind campbell in standard fantasy scoring this week? Each paypal to Clayton Gray (mod) to hold it prior to Sunday. I too am very serious about being willing to wager on this top.

I won't even ask for odds.. which apparently I should be doing since Brady is such a superior QB to Campbell. :)

We on?

ETA: This is all in good fun by the way... no puffery. Enjoying the debate as usually I'm on the side of the coin backing Brady. Tis interesting on this side. Don't like it.
Click to expand...
If Clayton posts or PMs that he's willing to escrow, you're on. Even odds, even though I'm taking the lower rated QB!
Click to expand...
:coffee: and is the bolded ETA above sandbagging or a CYA just in case this goes sideways?

:lmao:

and I'll donate $25 on the Cambell side - admittedly more for some dynasty league trade-bait mojo w/ JC.
Click to expand...
Definitely not sandbagging. I'm a well known pats homer (search my Pool posts... I've been around for a while :lmao: ) . Grew up in boston. Just saying I'm not a big fan of my current perception that the Pats are a mess and Brady is too dinged up to orchestrate a proper playoff run. That said, I'm realistic about these things and that's how I see things (correctly or not). :lmao:
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How can there be sandbagging? We have the same info. In any case, thecardiackid send $25 to Clayton Gray and [icon] send $50 and I'll send $75. What email address should I PayPal too? And can we get confirmation that he is willing to help us?ETA: They are ranked right next to each other in FBG final rankings, interestingly enough.

 
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Have to admit I was not considering starting Campbell until I opened this thread. I have Palmer, Henne (vs. 31st pass D Ten), V.Young (rush TD potential) and Campbell to choose from. I don;t know if I like the idea of going with a guy vs. the NYG defense when anything is on the line...

 
I'm still interested on what the consensus opinion is with regards to reasonable expectations of Campbell's fantasy output on MNF aganist the NYG.

Brady over the last 3 weeks:

12 @NO 237 0 2int 9pts

13 @Mia 352 2 2int 26pts

14 Car 192 1 1int 13pts

Also notable are Brady's stats against BUF the first time they played: 378 2 1int 27pts

Campbell over the last 3 weeks:

12 @Phi 231 2 2int 27pts

13 NO 367 3 1int 32pts

14 @Oak 222 2int 22pts

Also notable are Campbell's stats against NYGthe first time they played: 211 1 1int 15pts

I again ask, does the mystique of playing on MNF bring out the best in Campbell, or the NYG defense? Will Brady feed Moss the ball more, or will he continue to show signs of injury and succomb to the highly-rated Buf D?

I think this is the week the real Patriots show up to work (ie: offensive juggernaut). This is as close to a must-win as they come for the Pats. Also, the NYG face a must-win for the remainder of their games, and I'd be surprised if Tuck, Umenyiora and friends don't put significant pressure on Campbell and the 'Skins passing offense.

Thoughts?

 
Well I've already spoken a lot, but I agree with your assessments. Buffalo D is over-rated and Brady & Co. will do well against them in a must-win game. Giants D will also get up and do well on the big stage against an over-matched Skins team. With the Skins using what was their third string back, the Giants are going to force them to try to run on them. Campbell is just not going to have a great game and Brady is.

 
Campbell (just picked him up yesterday) over Hasselbeck.

Yeah, pretty crummy...but somehow managed a bye in a dynasty with Hasselbeck/Edwards/Hill as my QBs all season. Alot of 5pt weeks with that crew. lol

 
Still debating Campbell over Rivers.

All depends on what Miles Austin & Pierre Thomas do for me on Saturday night.

 
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