Impact of Limited Offseason? (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

What say you on what to expect after an offseason with not a lot of practice or contact? IIRC, teams could only have 10 practices in full uniforms, and many teams did not have much or any real contact to speak of. In general, will that help the offenses more? The defenses more?

It probably will vary from team to team. Good offenses will still be good. Good defenses will still be good. Teams rolling out a majority of returning players will probably do better. But if there are guys getting the ball that weren't going full contact in the off season going up against guys that really haven't tackled, who do you think would usually win that battle?

I expect a lot of mistakes and ugly football at times the first few weeks.

 

[travdogg]

I'm expecting offenses to be way ahead of defenses, especially in the passing game. I think we will see guys just running alone uncovered quite a bit due to breakdowns in communication and responsibility confusion, likely starting tonight.

 

[BradtheAg]

I have no evidence to support this, but to me it has always seemed that Thursday night games are usually sloppy and low scoring due to lack of adequate prep time.  So I'm going with low

 

[tangfoot]

I think it's going to take a month or more for most defenses to really jell.  However, teams like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England and San Francisco have enough continuity and experience that they will be "more dominant" than the rest of the league.  I'm still not sure if this means they will actually be good, or just giving up a few less points than the other unprepared/uncoordinated defenses at the start of the season.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Slightly off topic but seems like a lot of injuries popped up this week. I hope that won’t be a trend this year with an altered offseason to prepare.

 

[Anarchy99]

I will take a stab and say the defenses will have an advantage and scores will be lower. My logic is offenses are built on timing, and with limited practice time, I doubt they will be in sync. Add in that they will now be facing real pass rushers, real tackles, and defenders actually trying to dismember them and that should add enough to cause some drops and mess with timing.

 

[cockroach]

Presnap penalties and holding calls will make it nearly unwatchable. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Slightly off topic but seems like a lot of injuries popped up this week. I hope that won’t be a trend this year with an altered offseason to prepare.

I hope so too and I think the lack of contact in practice is a concern.

However the teams did not have to report any injuries until recently. That is why all of the news is coming at once. Most of these injuries have been out there for awhile, the teams just did not have to say anything official about them until now.

 

[Biabreakable]

I will take a stab and say the defenses will have an advantage and scores will be lower. My logic is offenses are built on timing, and with limited practice time, I doubt they will be in sync. Add in that they will now be facing real pass rushers, real tackles, and defenders actually trying to dismember them and that should add enough to cause some drops and mess with timing.

I went with defenses being ahead of the offenses right now based on my memory of these things but I could be wrong. 

 

[Gally]

I think the choices should have been modified a bit.  I think teams with stable coaching staffs and players have the advantage over teams with a whole new coaching staff or a swap of players at key positions.  Stability will have advantage over change.  I don't think it is necessarily offense or defense related.  It's scheme and consistency related. 

 

[Anarchy99]

I went with defenses being ahead of the offenses right now based on my memory of these things but I could be wrong. 

Looks like we may both be wrong. The last time there was a limited offseason was 2011 due to a lack of a new CBA.  That year there were recording passing totals. Brees, Brady, and Stafford all were 5K+ and Eli just missed. 

 

[Man In The Box]

I think the choices should have been modified a bit.  I think teams with stable coaching staffs and players have the advantage over teams with a whole new coaching staff or a swap of players at key positions.  Stability will have advantage over change.  I don't think it is necessarily offense or defense related.  It's scheme and consistency related. 

I posted a similar thought in another thread. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Looks like we may both be wrong. The last time there was a limited offseason was 2011 due to a lack of a new CBA.  That year there were recording passing totals. Brees, Brady, and Stafford all were 5K+ and Eli just missed. 

Yeah I was thinking more of how the narrative in practices often has the defense ahead early on and then also in preseason and early season games that being true.

I am not even sure if that is true statistically. I haven't looked into that. Now I am curious.

I wasn't thinking about the impact of no preseason games may have specifically and what Gally brings up about coaching staffs and returning veterans on specific teams being a more nuanced and likely accurate way to look at how prepared teams are right now.

 

[Anarchy99]

Yeah I was thinking more of how the narrative in practices often has the defense ahead early on and then also in preseason and early season games that being true.

I am not even sure if that is true statistically. I haven't looked into that. Now I am curious.

I wasn't thinking about the impact of no preseason games may have specifically and what Gally brings up about coaching staffs and returning veterans on specific teams being a more nuanced and likely accurate way to look at how prepared teams are right now.

I think there are 6 teams rolling with new QBs this year (plus Ben and Stafford coming back from injury). Will be interesting to see if they will start a little behind the eight ball. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Impact?

Rookies are worthless this year, how about we start there? No training camps, no preseason, Bleep you rookies, no room on my roster for them in 2020. 

Teams in redraft that take the bait and load up on rookies will sink quickly during the season, my .02

 

[Tanner9919]

sloppy games, poor tackling, some BIIIIG plays from offenses, lots of turnovers, especially QB ints as WRs are out of position, etc.. yeah not so sold on rookies this season.maybe in mid oct. some of them start to make strides but we're going to miss preseason and its boring games.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Rookies are worthless this year, how about we start there? No training camps, no preseason, Bleep you rookies, no room on my roster for them in 2020.

this didn't age well, CEH says hi.

tonight's game aside, I'd expect defenses to be ahead of offenses and, on the other side, teams with veteran offensive lines as well as not-new-to-team QB's will be way ahead of younger teams and teams with new QB's. Rivers & Brady may be exceptions, but even they need more time than this to gel with their coaches and offensive lines not to mention their receivers. I guess Brady did get Gronk, so there's that.

 

[sho nuff]

this didn't age well, CEH says hi.

tonight's game aside, I'd expect defenses to be ahead of offenses and, on the other side, teams with veteran offensive lines as well as not-new-to-team QB's will be way ahead of younger teams and teams with new QB's. Rivers & Brady may be exceptions, but even they need more time than this to gel with their coaches and offensive lines not to mention their receivers. I guess Brady did get Gronk, so there's that.

Yeah...Id agree on rookie WRs...but RBs can make it a bit quicker.

Teams relying on rookie WRs to come out of the gate as fast should be much more difficult.  I went for vets mostly this year because of that in redraft (with the exception of Ruggs very late just because he was the best value at the time).

 

[Ministry of Pain]

this didn't age well, CEH says hi.

tonight's game aside, I'd expect defenses to be ahead of offenses and, on the other side, teams with veteran offensive lines as well as not-new-to-team QB's will be way ahead of younger teams and teams with new QB's. Rivers & Brady may be exceptions, but even they need more time than this to gel with their coaches and offensive lines not to mention their receivers. I guess Brady did get Gronk, so there's that.

Oh let's give it a full weekend at least 

 

[Biabreakable]

I think there are 6 teams rolling with new QBs this year (plus Ben and Stafford coming back from injury). Will be interesting to see if they will start a little behind the eight ball. 

We were definitely wrong. Offenses are on an epic pace right now.

Average points scored per game is currently at 25.7 which is over 2 points higher than any other season. Teams are averaging 369.5 yards per game also the highest average ever and this continues almost across the board, most 1st downs per game, most completions per game, 

When you look at QB stats, there are currently 10 QB who are completing over 70% of their attempts. It was only a few years ago where completing 70% had only been done a handful of times. Last year there were 3 who finished that high. 13 completed 65% or more. There are 22 QB completing it that much so far this year.

Penalties on offensive plays are way down compared to recent seasons as well.

 

[shadrap]

Slightly off topic but seems like a lot of injuries popped up this week. I hope that won’t be a trend this year with an altered offseason to prepare.

this!  hammys, calves, etc.

 

[Anarchy99]

We were definitely wrong. Offenses are on an epic pace right now.

Average points scored per game is currently at 25.7 which is over 2 points higher than any other season. Teams are averaging 369.5 yards per game also the highest average ever and this continues almost across the board, most 1st downs per game, most completions per game, 

When you look at QB stats, there are currently 10 QB who are completing over 70% of their attempts. It was only a few years ago where completing 70% had only been done a handful of times. Last year there were 3 who finished that high. 13 completed 65% or more. There are 22 QB completing it that much so far this year.

Penalties on offensive plays are way down compared to recent seasons as well.

Yeah, after researching things more after this was discussed the outcome has historically been more offense and less defense. However, I think you partly explained another reason why that is. With a lot fewer offensive penalties, teams are constantly going forward and not backward. It's a lot tougher when teams are looking at 3rd and 15 vs 2nd and 2. I am curious why there are so few penalties. Maybe the lack of fans and crowd noise (at least in terms of false starts). I haven't checked, but if there are more defensive penalties (or at least major ones or penalties that carry automatic first downs), that would also greatly favor offenses. But I do think it is much easier for offenses to function in a mostly quiet stadium and with fewer distractions.