In a 6pt/TD QB league.... (1 Viewer)

[Soulfly3]

Non-PPR

What are you thoughts on going QB at #1 overall (THIS season)? 

As good as DJ is, is Brady or Rodgers just the "safest" and surest bet each and every week? Thoughts?

We're having a great pre-draft chat here tonight (all 12 of us) and the topic is on the floor.

(to be clear, QB TDs are worth 6)

 

[jon_mx]

I think Brady is the closest thing to a lock for 40 TDs this year.  Not sure if I could pull the trigger on him at #1 though, but I would get Brady, Rodgers or Brees in the first 15 picks somewhere. 

 

[Soulfly3]

I think Brady is the closest thing to a lock for 40 TDs this year.  Not sure if I could pull the trigger on him at #1 though, but I would get Brady, Rodgers or Brees in the first 15 picks somewhere. 

therein lies the issue... no chance any of the 3 get back to you, if you have the #1 pick. 

hence the debate

 

[Ilov80s]

QB gets even deeper in 6 pt passing leagues. Unless this is a superflex or 2QB league, taking a QB first overall is crazy.

 

[starks]

Not a chance at all. All qbs score the same, the only thing I do is downgrade Cam, Tyrod...etc who get points with their legs. If Rodgers throws 12 more TD than Rivers/Stafford/Dalton's who you can get 10-12 rounds later that is a difference of 24 points, spread out over 16 games that is just over 1 point per week. Pass on DJ or Bell or several others you will regret it. 

 

[Ilov80s]

therein lies the issue... no chance any of the 3 get back to you, if you have the #1 pick. 

hence the debate

Not true at all. Lots of leagues will see QBs slip. I just had my local draft which is definitely a bit old school and guys really value QB. Brees went near the end of the 4th round.

 

[NYRAGE]

It's insane. 

 

[cloppbeast]

Not true at all. Lots of leagues will see QBs slip. I just had my local draft which is definitely a bit old school and guys really value QB. Brees went near the end of the 4th round.

If the rest of his draft works out, the guy getting Brees at the end of the 4th should win the league.

Drafters let quarterback's slip. This doesn't mean they're not valuable. 

 

[Ilov80s]

If the rest of his draft works out, the guy getting Brees at the end of the 4th should win the league.

Drafters let quarterback's slip. This doesn't mean they're not valuable. 

It's a lot more complicated than that. His starting WR group is pretty weak and he has weak RB depth. He could have used a RB or WR there imo. However, he paid a very fair price for Brees.

 

[cloppbeast]

It's a lot more complicated than that. His starting WR group is pretty weak and he has weak RB depth. He could have used a RB or WR there imo. However, he paid a very fair price for Brees.

IMO, that's a steal for Brees, especially in a 6pt TD league.

 

[jon_mx]

Not a chance at all. All qbs score the same, the only thing I do is downgrade Cam, Tyrod...etc who get points with their legs. If Rodgers throws 12 more TD than Rivers/Stafford/Dalton's who you can get 10-12 rounds later that is a difference of 24 points, spread out over 16 games that is just over 1 point per week. Pass on DJ or Bell or several others you will regret it. 

Actually it is12 x 6 =72 more points from extra td's.  That's huge. 

 

[jon_mx]

I was in a 6 point league with people at work who did not get how huge a difference 6 points per TD was for QB's.  I won it three years in row going QB early.  

 

[Mookie]

I took Peyton in my 6 pt league years ago and sacrificing other positions killed me - Felt like I was playing catch up the rest of the night.  You can still get a really good QB in 2/3 and a good QB at 4/5.  

 

[Mavis]

I consider Cam and Luck just outside this category most years. The year after Cam produced as the #1 QB in the league, he went #1 overall in my td heavy ten team 6 point for all TD league. Luck, well, he is hurt and not playing, so draft accordingly. 

 

[Mavis]

Not a chance at all. All qbs score the same, the only thing I do is downgrade Cam, Tyrod...etc who get points with their legs. If Rodgers throws 12 more TD than Rivers/Stafford/Dalton's who you can get 10-12 rounds later that is a difference of 24 points, spread out over 16 games that is just over 1 point per week. Pass on DJ or Bell or several others you will regret it. 

Why downgrade Cam? All TDs are 6 including all the rushing he has. Because of that he is still capable of a lot of TDs. 

 

[Dan Lambskin]

These threads always remind me how dumb 4 point TD leagues are

 

[need2know]

I swear we have this same conversation every year

 

[barackdhouse]

Not a chance at all. All qbs score the same, the only thing I do is downgrade Cam, Tyrod...etc who get points with their legs. If Rodgers throws 12 more TD than Rivers/Stafford/Dalton's who you can get 10-12 rounds later that is a difference of 24 points, spread out over 16 games that is just over 1 point per week. Pass on DJ or Bell or several others you will regret it. 

In a 6pt passing TD league I had 1.02 and took DJ still. I took Brady at 3.02. 1.01 loves Bell by the way. 

But if player A throws 12 TDs more than player B then that is 72 more pts scored over 16 games, or a robust 4.5 ppg advantage. If it were 4 pts for TDs then the advantage would be 3.0 ppg. To say nothing of the possible advantage in terms of yardage points, too, if player A outgains player B there as well. Personally I think having a premier QB is a huge advantage, but there is no doubt it comes at a cost. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

Let all those guys who think they're really smart draft their QBs in the first three rounds why you pick up all the stud RBs and WRs.

 

[Ilov80s]

In a 6pt passing TD league I had 1.02 and took DJ still. I took Brady at 3.02. 1.01 loves Bell by the way. 

But if player A throws 12 TDs more than player B then that is 72 more pts scored over 16 games, or a robust 4.5 ppg advantage. If it were 4 pts for TDs then the advantage would be 3.0 ppg. To say nothing of the possible advantage in terms of yardage points, too, if player A outgains player B there as well. Personally I think having a premier QB is a huge advantage, but there is no doubt it comes at a cost. 

That is the point. Of course, in a vacuum we all would want the top QB. However, to get one, owners have to sacrifice at positions in higher demand. In my 6 pt/ 12 team league, there are 18 QBs owned for 12 starting QB roster slots.  There are 62 RBs and 24 starting RB spots to fill.  There are 70 WRs owned for 36 starting roster spots. It is very clear which position it will be easier to replace as the season goes on. I can easily add a QB right now that will throw 30 passes week 1. I can't just add a RB that will get 15 carries or a receiver will get 7 targets. 

Plus, all the QBs are getting the bump. Here is the difference in Rodgers PPG between 6 and 4 point leagues:

Rodgers over QB20 + 2.3

Rodgers over the mean of the top 20 QBs +1.3

That means the move from 4 to 6 gave Rodgers an extra 1.3 points over the average top 20 fantasy QB each week. Is the extra 1.3 worth heavily adjusting your rankings? I don't think so. Plus, there is the risk if the QB you take isn't a top 3 QB. If you draft Brady and he performs very well- like QB6, you really botched it because once we get past the top couple QBs each year, the fall off in scoring is very gradual. Even worse, if the QB you draft struggles like Cam Newton last year, then it's an absolute zero. Even guys like Gurley and AR15 who busted last year provided a reasonable value over replacement because of the scarcity at the positions. When we have 70 WRs being owned, you might be disappointed that a 2nd round WR is performing as WR30 but he's still technically a starting caliber fantasy player. So there is no room for error when taking a QB early. 

 

[dlcb1]

We had our draft yesterday. Rodgers went fourth overall, Brady went 5th, Brees was taken at 16th overall. However, in addition to 6 points per TD, our league penalizes interceptions at -4 points while also reducing the value of rushing and receiving yards. If you tinker enough with the formula, you can create a scenario where QB's should be first round picks, and occasionally even in the conversation for the first pick overall, but just making passing TDs worth 6 points isn't nearly enough. Starks pretty much nailed it. The extra 20-24 points you are going to add over the course of the season just isn't going to be enough to overcome the loss of an elite RB.

 

[JAMES!]

Not even in a 2qb league.

 

[jon_mx]

In a 4 point league top 4 QB scored 50-60 points more points than your 5-12 guys.  That gives them a 4 point per game advantage.  In a 6 point per game league, that more than doubles, or 8 points per game advantage.  You can not pick up any old QB off waivers and get anywhere close to within a few points of Brady.  

 

[Ilov80s]

In a 4 point league top 4 QB scored 50-60 points more points than your 5-12 guys.  That gives them a 4 point per game advantage.  In a 6 point per game league, that more than doubles, or 8 points per game advantage.  You can not pick up any old QB off waivers and get anywhere close to within a few points of Brady.  

So you take Brady in the 2nd because no QB off waivers will come close to Brady. That means you are passing on WR1s and RB1s. Can you just go to the waivers and add any old WR that will score within a few points of a WR1? 

 

[jon_mx]

So you take Brady in the 2nd because no QB off waivers will come close to Brady. That means you are passing on WR1s and RB1s. Can you just go to the waivers and add any old WR that will score within a few points of a WR1? 

I can find one which will be much closer than 8 points per game.  

 

[Ilov80s]

I can find one which will be much closer than 8 points per game.  

I will use my 12 team league, 16 roster spot league as an example. It's pretty standard. There are 62 RBs owned heading into Week 1. There are 18 QBs owned. Last year in week 1, RB63 was Matt Asiata with 1.3 points. QB19 was Russell Wilson was 18.5 points. The difference week 1 between RB1 and RB63 was 28 points. The difference between QB1 and QB19 was 19 points. WR71 was Malcolm Mitchell with 3.3 points which was 24 points less than the WR1 that week. It's a lot easier to go to the WW and replace QB points than it is replace RB or WR points. 

 

[jon_mx]

So you take Brady in the 2nd because no QB off waivers will come close to Brady. That means you are passing on WR1s and RB1s. Can you just go to the waivers and add any old WR that will score within a few points of a WR1? 

Brady in the second will be the SOTD. 

 

[Mavis]

These threads always remind me how dumb 4 point TD leagues are

My question is why did anyone ever give only 4 points for a TD anyways? To level the playing field? No, more players are worth more for a reasona nd thats why we have drafts.

4 points is a terrible rule and always has been, I have resigned from leagues over that scoring. I never played ina  4 point TD, joined, didnt like it....quit. Last I checked no tD int he NFL is worth 4 points. 

 

[Dan Lambskin]

My question is why did anyone ever give only 4 points for a TD anyways? To level the playing field? No, more players are worth more for a reasona nd thats why we have drafts.

4 points is a terrible rule and always has been, I have resigned from leagues over that scoring. I never played ina  4 point TD, joined, didnt like it....quit. Last I checked no tD int he NFL is worth 4 points. 

Some snowflake probably got beat in the championship by a QB with a 4 TD day and motioned for the rule change the next season 

 

[gabes1919]

No chance in hell of me taking an early QB just because of 6 pt TDs. Increasing the scoring of QB does nothing to increase the scarcity at the position. All QBs benefit from the scoring change so the top guys may be slightly more valuable but I still would go QB late. The last 3 or 4 years I've gone QB late, I've ended up with mid QB1 every time. There are always 3 or 4 guys who go late and end up top 12. Scoring doesn't change that value because scarcity won't change unless you play more than 1 QB

2 TDs vs 4 TDs mean a 4 pts difference from a standard league in a given week. Having an additional high end rb or wr will more than make up that 4 pt gap. Do the shark move, go late QB while everyone is enchanted with the scoring system.

 

[Mavis]

Some snowflake probably got beat in the championship by a QB with a 4 TD day and motioned for the rule change the next season 

lol, I may be a snowflake in that regard but its up to us to play in the leagues we choose and I never played in a 4 point TD league until then, tried it out and didnt like it. Quit after one year, made the playoffs, but found no value in devaluing QBs, make sense? 

 

[TripItUp]

Depends on the size of the league, in a highly competitive 10 teamer the top 3 QBs will fly off the board in the first two rounds.   12 teamers however will see qbs slide due to the scarcity of rbs and WRs.

 

[Hawkeye21]

My question is why did anyone ever give only 4 points for a TD anyways? To level the playing field? No, more players are worth more for a reasona nd thats why we have drafts.

4 points is a terrible rule and always has been, I have resigned from leagues over that scoring. I never played ina  4 point TD, joined, didnt like it....quit. Last I checked no tD int he NFL is worth 4 points. 

I've never actually cared because it's never changed my strategy on drafting or managing my league.  The only thing that changes is that I don't value the mobile QBs as much.  Not sure why everyone always gets so worked up about this subject.  Everyone is overthinking it way too much.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I've played in several 6pt passing td leagues and I would never take a qb with the first pick.  Even with 6pt passing tds, the point per game advantage that brady/rodgers will get you over a guy like ryan will be smaller than the gap between a david johnson and whatever rb is left at the 2-3 turn. In fact- you'll probably have awesome options at the 2-3 turn as some owners might be suckered into taking qb's earlier than they should. You should still be able to get a more than adequate qb at the 4-5 turn while piling up talent in other positions in the meantime.

 

[Ilov80s]

Depends on the size of the league, in a highly competitive 10 teamer the top 3 QBs will fly off the board in the first two rounds.   12 teamers however will see qbs slide due to the scarcity of rbs and WRs.

True. The smaller the league, the more risks owners can take in drafts.

 

[Hawkeye21]

True. The smaller the league, the more risks owners can take in drafts.

The smaller the league the more I'm willing to wait on QB because there are so many great options on waivers if I need to stream.  A smaller league allows even more great RBs and WRs to fall to me each round and then I can still get a top 10 QB by the 8th round.

 

[Ilov80s]

The smaller the league the more I'm willing to wait on QB because there are so many great options on waivers if I need to stream.  A smaller league allows even more great RBs and WRs to fall to me each round and then I can still get a top 10 QB by the 8th round.

True as well. I mean, in a smaller league, lots of things work rather easily. 

 

[bagger]

Non-PPR

What are you thoughts on going QB at #1 overall (THIS season)? 

As good as DJ is, is Brady or Rodgers just the "safest" and surest bet each and every week? Thoughts?

We're having a great pre-draft chat here tonight (all 12 of us) and the topic is on the floor.

(to be clear, QB TDs are worth 6)

No.

 

[bagger]

6 point passing tds are not meaningful for you to alter your draft strategy. 

My main league is a ppr 6 point passing td league. Waiting on qbs continues to be the optimal strategy. 

 

[KellysHeroes]

Why downgrade Cam? All TDs are 6 including all the rushing he has. Because of that he is still capable of a lot of TDs. 

have no idea, all the weapons he has and the downgrade people are giving him after last yr and I really like getting him around 9 - 10 round

 

[Hawkeye21]

have no idea, all the weapons he has and the downgrade people are giving him after last yr and I really like getting him around 9 - 10 round

The reason is because he no longer has a scoring advantage over guys who throw more passing TDs and no rushing TDs.  If you took your scoring projections for all QBs and sorted them from highest scoring to lowest scoring you will see a change in ranks with 4 points versus 6 points.

 

[jon_mx]

I am baffled to learn that a scoring system which significantly amplifies the advantage of having an elite player at a position somehow is meaningless.  Must playing by some rules where getting the most points is not key to winning. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

I am baffled to learn that a scoring system which significantly amplifies the advantage of having an elite player at a position somehow is meaningless.  Must playing by some rules where getting the most points is not key to winning. 

Yep, you're not getting it.

 

[matttyl]

I agree.  I'm in a 10 team league where all TDs are worth 6 points.  There are some other minor changes from normal - like a 2 point bonus at 20 completions and another 2 at 30.  Small bonus for TDS over 40 yards and such...

Last year Rodgers had 502 points, Brees 479 and Ryan 477.  Brady had 366 over 12, so his average was right there with the others in the 30-31 PPG range.  The next best QB was Luck at 27 PPG, then Cousins at 25.7 (405 and 412 total points), then a drop into the 22-24 range.  If you wanted to get Stafford/Rivers/Ben/Wilson/Palmer - you were giving up 6-10 PPG.  That's huge. 

 

[matttyl]

Yep, you're not getting it.

I guess I'm not either.  If you're getting 6 points for something rather than 4, and the point is to score more points than your opponent, how does this not alter your draft? 

 

[Hawkeye21]

I agree.  I'm in a 10 team league where all TDs are worth 6 points.  There are some other minor changes from normal - like a 2 point bonus at 20 completions and another 2 at 30.  Small bonus for TDS over 40 yards and such...

Last year Rodgers had 502 points, Brees 479 and Ryan 477.  Brady had 366 over 12, so his average was right there with the others in the 30-31 PPG range.  The next best QB was Luck at 27 PPG, then Cousins at 25.7, then a drop into the 22-24 range.  If you wanted to get Stafford/Rivers/Ben/Wilson/Palmer - you were giving up 6-10 PPG.  That's huge. 

If you're going to go by this then Rodgers and Gronk should be your first two picks since they offer then biggest advantage at a position.  The problem with this thinking is that in the majority of leagues you are only required to start one QB and TE but you need to start at least two RBs and WRs.  The fact that you have to start more players at a position makes a big difference and the more elite players you can get at those positions makes a bigger difference.

 

[Hawkeye21]

I guess I'm not either.  If you're getting 6 points for something rather than 4, and the point is to score more points than your opponent, how does this not alter your draft? 

If it were as simple as that then the entire first round should be QBs.

 

[matttyl]

If it were as simple as that then the entire first round should be QBs.

No, just the ones that score vastly more points than their peers at the position.  Rodgers, Brady, Brees, DJ, Bell, Brown, Beckham, Julio and maybe Gronk (depending on PPR or not).  It's value based drafting. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

No, just the ones that score vastly more points than their peers at the position.  Rodgers, Brady, Brees, DJ, Bell, Brown, Beckham, Julio and maybe Gronk (depending on PPR or not).  It's value based drafting. 

Yep and you need to take into consideration that you only need to start one QB while you need to start anywhere from 2 to 4 RBs and WRs.  That makes a huge difference.  This is why in two QB leagues you actually start to see QBs going first overall and more than one taken in the first round.  It's the position scarcity that makes a big difference.

 

[matttyl]

If you're going to go by this then Rodgers and Gronk should be your first two picks since they offer then biggest advantage at a position.  The problem with this thinking is that in the majority of leagues you are only required to start one QB and TE but you need to start at least two RBs and WRs.  The fact that you have to start more players at a position makes a big difference and the more elite players you can get at those positions makes a bigger difference.

Well Rodgers may not give you that advantage over Brady and Brees this year, and Gronk might not offer a huge one over Reed should he stay healthy (and Gronk always has his own health risk).  You draft sure fire players that will score more than their competition at that position.  You draft value every chance you can.  That's why back in the day in IDP leagues JJ Watt wasn't unheard of in the early 2nd round - he gave you that much of an advantage at the position. 

Say you're back half of the first round - DJ, Bell, Brown, Beckham and Julio are all gone.  In a 6 point per passing TD league I'll take Brady or Rodgers there, and get a Nelson, AJ Green, Evans, McCoy, Ajayi, Gordon, Howard or Murray type player on the way back (especially if I just started a little mini run at QB and Brady and Brees both go).  3rd round I can still get Fournette, Gurley, Hunt, Hyde, Zeke, Cooper, D Thomas, Baldwin, or Cooks type player that slips.