BB I don’t think has ever gone below 7 wins as a HC.Anarchy99 said:
I believe so... as long as they are able to sustain their power rushing offense to keep their defensive players fresh throughout the season. I think Belichick will go back to his roots with ball-control offense and defense. Stidham is 2nd year and will be their QB / manager.Is the defense going to still be a force this year?
I have seen discussion that BB is scheming the defense to be able to stop the RPO, adding faster, more athletic players that can play multiple positions. That was their weakness last year, and they should still have the best secondary in the league again (if healthy). The schedule is a lot tougher this year, but the defense should still be very good.Is the defense going to still be a force this year?
8-8 or 7-9 seem reasonable.I think 8 wins is reasonable projection, 1 or 2 more it they catch some breaks n 1 or 2 less if they don’t.
If Stidham is legit and the long term answer and you are able to build a young and cheap foundation with this year's draft along with unknowns (or still TBD) from the past few drafts like Wynn, Harry, Damien Harris, Cajuste, Frohlodt, Cowart, Rivers, Bentley, Joejuan and Winovich I will not be overly concerned about the record because if a good portion of those guys hit and you have your answer at QB you are set-up to turn this right around based on their cap situation not just next year but for the foreseeable future...the post Brady era will not be determined by BB the Coach it will be determined by BB the GM and how the group I listed above does this year will play the biggest role in it.8-8 or 7-9 seem reasonable.
Honestly, I'm just hoping they are in the hunt for the playoffs until the end vs. some kind of depressing 2-6 start that has everyone yelling the sky is falling.
I see many similarities between the 2020 Patriots and the 2001 Patriots. Bledsoe was an established QB that ended up getting hurt and replaced by Brady, a complete unknown. While Bledsoe certainly never was the QB that Brady was, I would put forth that Brady at 42 was comparable to Bledsoe at 30 (the year he threw for 4350/24 with Buffalo in 2002).Like the 2001 Brady, 2020 Stidham is entirely unproven.If Stidham is legit and the long term answer and you are able to build a young and cheap foundation with this year's draft along with unknowns (or still TBD) from the past few drafts like Wynn, Harry, Damien Harris, Cajuste, Frohlodt, Cowart, Rivers, Bentley, Joejuan and Winovich I will not be overly concerned about the record because if a good portion of those guys hit and you have your answer at QB you are set-up to turn this right around based on their cap situation not just next year but for the foreseeable future...the post Brady era will not be determined by BB the Coach it will be determined by BB the GM and how the group I listed above does this year will play the biggest role in it.
A few things:I see many similarities between the 2020 Patriots and the 2001 Patriots. Bledsoe was an established QB that ended up getting hurt and replaced by Brady, a complete unknown. While Bledsoe certainly never was the QB that Brady was, I would put forth that Brady at 42 was comparable to Bledsoe at 30 (the year he threw for 4350/24 with Buffalo in 2002).Like the 2001 Brady, 2020 Stidham is entirely unproven.
Like 2020, the offensive talent in 2001 was pretty much non existent. They had their version of Edelman (Troy Brown) and their version of Sony Michel (Antowain Smith) and then a whole lot of mediocre players. Defensively, they had their version of Gilmore (Ty Law) and McCourty (Lawyer Milloy). The only thing that team had as a huge plus that the current version doesn't have is Richard Seymour. Yes, several players on defense turned into solid players . . . but at the time they were relatively obscure.
Yeah, I get it. The game is way different now and it will be harder to win against high scoring offenses while being offensively challenged. I won't take the cheese and predict great things for the 2020 Patriots, as tempered enthusiasm with an outlook for future is a much more logical stance to have. Somehow they won in 2001 (which probably should never have happened . . . that team was about as no name and without playmakers as you could get). But the 2001 Patriots only threw for 3300/21/15 to go with roughly 1800/15 rushing the ball. They "only" scored 371 points. I say "only" because that ranked 6th in points scored. Last year, that total would have only ranked 16th best in the league. The 2001 team ranked 19th in yards gained on offense. The defense ranked 24th in yards allowed. They were a net -470 yards on the season.
The point being, if you ever looked at the roster and statistics from that 2001 season, you would have expected they would have gone 6-10 or 7-9. If we look at the 2020 roster, it would be very easy to conclude a similar prediction of 6 or 7 wins. Almost 20 years later, I can't imagine BB is worse as a coach / motivator / player developer. He likely is a worse drafter, but he has improved his salary cap management skills in that time.
Looking back at the 2000 draft, other than Brady, no one else of their other 9 draft picks did all that much for NE (or any other team). They hit on Richard Seymour and Matt Light in the 2001 draft . . . and the other players selected did close to nothing. Moving forward the rest of the decade, they usually hit on 2-3 players a draft . . .
2002 - Daniel Graham, Deion Branch, Jarvis Green
2003 - Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen, Tully Banta-Cain
2004 - Vince Wilfork, Ben Watson
2005 - Logan Mankins, James Sanders, Matt Cassel
2006 - Stephen Gostkowski, Jeremy Mincey
2007 - Brandon Meriweather
2008 - Jerod Mayo, Matthew Slater
2009 - Patrick Chung, Darius Butler, Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate (Sebastian Vollmer)
2010 - Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Ted Larsen
Of the players I listed, they went on to play roughly 100+ games in the NFL. IMO, any player that lasted that long should be considered a plus draft pick (even if they never became a star). I included Vollmer, but he only played 88 games and had to call it quits sue to injury.
Those drafts typically bore some fruit . . . the recent drafts not so much (at least not yet anyway). It should be interesting to follow this team this year (assuming they play), as there will be a lot more in the UNKNOWN category than there's been in years.
All valid points, although I will ask in theory . . . don't professional athletes and coaches plan and play to win every game? Yeah, the whole league is looking forward to stomping on NE. But does that make any team actually play better? If you want to say this team is weaker than others I won't argue that, but BB won in 01 and 18 with not a lot of elite producers. If that intangible element of "gunning for NE" actually translates into something, couldn't the same be said in reverse, that BB will be working extra hard to show the world we can win without Tom?A few things:
*There is one monster difference between 01 and 20 that can not be underestimated...no one was gunning for the 01 Patriots...they were a complete underdog that was able to sneak up on everyone...right now the Pats have as big of a bullseye on them as any team in NFL history...other teams smell blood right now and the fear factor of playing Brady and BB will not be there like it was in the past...they are not gonna be sneaking up on anyone and they have a very difficult schedule to boot...also, that 01 team is a once in a generation type of team...you can make a very good case that it was the biggest surprise Super Bowl Champ of all time...no one saw that coming, making the playoffs was a shock let alone winning it all
*I think you are forgetting some of the quality veteran talent that the 01 team had on D besides Lawyer and Law...Willie, Bruschi, Ted Johnson and Roman Phifer were all legit talents...BB had a lot of "his guys" there as well in Otis, Pleasant and Hamilton...not studs but guys who he could absolutely rely on and had a history with...add in Seymour who was a top 10 pick and Vrabel who came out of nowhere and this was a very good group that outside of Seymour were all basically grizzled veterans...the unit this year is gonna have to have youngsters step up and many of them are not blue chip talent on paper...I think this unit is gonna take a step backwards before they take a step forward, they lost five players who logged time last year and God forbid if Hightower or McCourty go down
*I keep hearing about the Pats going to a ball control offense...for that to happen Sony Michel is going to have to have a career year...did he look poised to do that last year? Hopefully Harris only did a redshirt year like White and Vereen did because I just don't see the run game being anything special without him contributing and you also have to factor in the respect Brady had as well as far as D's selling out and that is now gone as well
Overall, I think this team could be anywhere between a 5-11 and 10-6...if BB was not coaching 5 wins might be generous...but he is coaching and I will never doubt him but a real lot has to go right this year for them not to take a good sized step backwards and as I said before if that happens but Stidham is legit and the youngsters develop all is good as far as I am concerned.
Overall I guess where we really differ is I see a bigger downside then you do...not saying it is gonna happen but there is a pathway to this team really falling off (as there is for being a playoff team)...if Stidham is not at least solid I think the O could be a disaster...if Hightower goes down the LB unit could be very subpar...if McCourty goes down I think this D takes a monster hit...if this kicker is nothing special winning close games becomes that much more difficult...in the past as long as Brady was there I had zero doubts that BB was gonna get them to the playoffs somehow, someway and after that anything goes...unfortunately the lack of success in the past few drafts and a bad salary cap situation (granted it is just one year) has left this team more vulnerable then they have been in 20 years because the options to plug and play/next man up are far more iffy then they have been during the BB era.All valid points, although I will ask in theory . . . don't professional athletes and coaches plan and play to win every game? Yeah, the whole league is looking forward to stomping on NE. But does that make any team actually play better? If you want to say this team is weaker than others I won't argue that, but BB won in 01 and 18 with not a lot of elite producers. If that intangible element of "gunning for NE" actually translates into something, couldn't the same be said in reverse, that BB will be working extra hard to show the world we can win without Tom?
I have posted that the 2020 Patriots on paper look like an 8-8 team but BB can get them to 10 wins. Maybe this year will be a lot different, but NE has lost key players on offense and defense before and has been able to replace them many times over the years. True, they haven't had to fill holes AND replace Brady. I may easily be proven wrong, but I don't see a ton of expected drop off 2020 Brady to 2020 Stidham. If the master plan really is to shore up the defense in 2020, get Stidham's feet wet, and then go on a spending spree in 2021, I have no problem with that. To me, that's a sound strategy.
As I posted several times, the Pats still will get their fair share of young QBs, newish coaches, and some opponents they haven't faced in awhile. Historically, those have been weeks where BB outcoaches opponents and defensive scheming carries the day. I see a lot of ugly games upcoming (by that I mean not pretty to watch wins or losses with scores of 19-12 or 16-9).
I know you have brought up the line and run game several times. Those are concerns, but with better health, more depth this year, and some more able bodied TEs and a FB, that certainly would be a vast improvement over last year. We will have to see if Dante is truly gone and how much of an impact there will be if he is completely out of the picture. When he retired the last time, they still won the SB (to be fair, the 2014 team was likely more talented than the 2020 model . . . but that 2014 team had tons of RB injuries and didn't run great either).
I saw an interesting opinion by someone who said BB's coaching is worth 6 wins a year and the defense is worth 2 more. Anything the offense could give them would be layered on top of that. I forget who said it, but worse case was 8-8 with the worst offense in the league. Maybe that is a little exaggerated, but I think that line of thinking may not be that far off.
You certainly are not wrong for any of those concerns . . . and multiple injuries to key players have frequently cratered many teams over the years. Tons of injuries this year would turn this season into a disaster in short order, but I am not going to worry about things that haven't happened yet.Overall I guess where we really differ is I see a bigger downside then you do...not saying it is gonna happen but there is a pathway to this team really falling off (as there is for being a playoff team)...if Stidham is not at least solid I think the O could be a disaster...if Hightower goes down the LB unit could be very subpar...if McCourty goes down I think this D takes a monster hit...if this kicker is nothing special winning close games becomes that much more difficult...in the past as long as Brady was there I had zero doubts that BB was gonna get them to the playoffs somehow, someway and after that anything goes...unfortunately the lack of success in the past few drafts and a bad salary cap situation (granted it is just one year) has left this team more vulnerable then they have been in 20 years because the options to plug and play/next man up are far more iffy then they have been during the BB era.
I can easily see why people don't believe in him...he is a complete wildcard...he had an average Senior year and has played only a couple of snaps in the real season and actually got pulled by BB...if just being good in practice or preseason was all it took Michael Bishop would be in the Hall-of-Fame...if anyone else but BB was doing this he would not get the benefit of the doubt...it is very understandable why there is tremendous doubt...now being a Pats fan many of us subscribe to the "in Bill we trust" motto because there has been a 100 times he has made a move that looked very questionable only to turn out great...this is just another one although the stakes are far higher...BB lives for this type of move and I really don't see him putting himself in a position to bottom out the first year without Brady...not the optics he wants with regard to his legacy...it appears he is all in on Stidham so like you I trust him and am excited to see the kid play but until he actually produces there should be questions.You certainly are not wrong for any of those concerns . . . and multiple injuries to key players have frequently cratered many teams over the years. Tons of injuries this year would turn this season into a disaster in short order, but I am not going to worry about things that haven't happened yet.
Apparently people still don't believe in Stidham. I saw a text alert earlier from Yahoo that they suggested Aaron Rodgers could be the Patriots starter next year. Florio had the Patriots listed as the first option for Rodgers if he needs a new home. I find their lack of faith . . . disturbing.
I have heard Bishop's name come up a number of times recently, and while the "doing well in preseason" part may apply, I don't think the "doing well across the entire season in practice" part applies like it does to Stidham. Bishop got drafted in 1999 and was inactive pretty much the entire season. He was around for the 2000 season as well and barely played. I remember him looking good in the preseason, but I don't remember any feedback as to how well he did in practice. I remember people saying how great an athlete Bishop was, but I don't remember him having any pro level passing skills.I can easily see why people don't believe in him...he is a complete wildcard...he had an average Senior year and has played only a couple of snaps in the real season and actually got pulled by BB...if just being good in practice or preseason was all it took Michael Bishop would be in the Hall-of-Fame...if anyone else but BB was doing this he would not get the benefit of the doubt...it is very understandable why there is tremendous doubt...now being a Pats fan many of us subscribe to the "in Bill we trust" motto because there has been a 100 times he has made a move that looked very questionable only to turn out great...this is just another one although the stakes are far higher...BB lives for this type of move and I really don't see him putting himself in a position to bottom out the first year without Brady...not the optics he wants with regard to his legacy...it appears he is all in on Stidham so like you I trust him and am excited to see the kid play but until he actually produces there should be questions.
I agree their options were limited...Cam and BB is never happening...Winston is intriguing but his game is too wild for BB...Dalton wouldn't bother me as a band-aid because I think he is a guy BB could trust but what would that really accomplish in the long-term...Tua was never gonna happen because they had zero chance of moving that far up in the draft with what they have for assets, it would have taken a Ricky Williams offer and they have way too many leaks on their roster to do that...I know we disagree but I would have liked them to bring in another legit prospect so you'd have another shot at solving the QB issue should Stidham get hurt or just not work out...there is no downside to doing that because if Stidham is not the answer then this rebuild/retool or whatever you want to call it just got exponentially more difficult and if Stidham is the answer you may have also gotten your backup QB for the near future because I don't see Hoyer being around too long as he is already 34 and while a good locker-room guy I never want to see him on the field.I have heard Bishop's name come up a number of times recently, and while the "doing well in preseason" part may apply, I don't think the "doing well across the entire season in practice" part applies like it does to Stidham. Bishop got drafted in 1999 and was inactive pretty much the entire season. He was around for the 2000 season as well and barely played. I remember him looking good in the preseason, but I don't remember any feedback as to how well he did in practice. I remember people saying how great an athlete Bishop was, but I don't remember him having any pro level passing skills.
He only completed 50% of his passes at Kansas State. He averaged 14 rushing attempts a game his last season in college and was the prototypical dual threat QB . . . but he still wasn't much of a passer or pro ready QB. He was the precursor to Tim Tebow (but a lot less accurate). Tebow accounted for 3800 yards of offense and 35 TDs his final season. Bishop accounted for 3600/37. There was a reason why he was the 227th overall pick in the draft.
By comparison, NE had Bledsoe, Bishop, John Friesz, and Brady all on the roster . . . and they kept Brady for his work ethic and how he looked in practice. The 4th stringer stuck and the two guys in front of him got jettisoned. Bishop went to play in NFL Europe, the Arena League, and the CFL. At one point, the Packers brought him in but released him before he made the roster. After all that, just like in college, he completed half his passes in 125 games in the Canadian Football League.
What I think is funny with the media and Stidham, the consensus holds that if NE had picked up a veteran free agent, then they would be in the mix to win 11 or 12 games again this year (had they signed Winston, Newton, or Dalton). Plenty of people had them pegged to shoot up the draft board to get Tua (and again be in position to make a run this year). In all of those examples, I would have expected the team to have been much WORSE. Whoever they brought in would take a year to learn the playbook and they would have way less cap space than they do now. If they mortgaged the future to get into the Top in the draft, they would not have the recent crop of new defenders (and it would still take a year for someone to learn the system).
Essentially, I think the media has this situation completely backwards. Cam and Winston were not good fits. Dalton is Dalton (I don't think he is terrible, but he has average written all over him at this point). Had NE opted for any of those options, THEN I would have expected a 5 or 6 win season.
Do we really thing Tom Brady, with one of the worst passer ratings in the NFL last year, won them 4-5 full games??8-8 or 7-9 seem reasonable.
Honestly, I'm just hoping they are in the hunt for the playoffs until the end vs. some kind of depressing 2-6 start that has everyone yelling the sky is falling.
You certainly made all valid points. One thing I'm optimistic about Sony Michel (yes, he's on my team in Dynasty PPR league) is how he finished in latter end of season last year and playoff. What held Patriots back was lack of playmakers on their receiving team, forcing them to see stacked box. Brady had no one to pass (Edelman was a completely shell of himself during latter end of the season). Belichick wisely drafted young and talent OL for past few years and a pair of TE this year while strengthening his team defense with increased emphasis of athleticism to combat the evolving trend of spread offense / RPO.Boston said:*I keep hearing about the Pats going to a ball control offense...for that to happen Sony Michel is going to have to have a career year...did he look poised to do that last year? Hopefully Harris only did a redshirt year like White and Vereen did because I just don't see the run game being anything special without him contributing and you also have to factor in the respect Brady had as well as far as D's selling out and that is now gone as well
Overall, I think this team could be anywhere between a 5-11 and 10-6...if BB was not coaching 5 wins might be generous...but he is coaching and I will never doubt him but a real lot has to go right this year for them not to take a good sized step backwards and as I said before if that happens but Stidham is legit and the youngsters develop all is good as far as I am concerned.
By having 4 out of 5 and 6 out of 8 games prior to those games being on the road2017
2018
2019
2020
Last 2 Games of the year are home games. 4 years in a row. How does that happen?
Making your own thread about this wasn't enough? And yes, they have 6 of 8 games on the road during a stretch. That is brutal. It would be far more advantageous for the Pats to throw one of those final two home games into that 8 game stretch. If anything, the final two at home hurts them. This is the biggest stretch of a conspiracy theory I've ever seen.2017
2018
2019
2020
Last 2 Games of the year are home games. 4 years in a row. How does that happen?
Sorry, didn't mean to get Patriot folks upset. You get the Ravens and 49'ers (bye week before) at Home in 2020 and the NFL gave you back to back @ Chargers on Sunday the @ Rams on Thursday. It's good for business.Making your own thread about this wasn't enough? And yes, they have 6 of 8 games on the road during a stretch. That is brutal. It would be far more advantageous for the Pats to throw one of those final two home games into that 8 game stretch. If anything, the final two at home hurts them. This is the biggest stretch of a conspiracy theory I've ever seen.
I'm not a Pats fan at all.Sorry, didn't mean to get Patriot folks upset. You get the Ravens and 49'ers (bye week before) at Home in 2020 and the NFL gave you back to back @ Chargers on Sunday the @ Rams on Thursday. It's good for business.
I thought you were a Patriot fan. This changes everything.I'm not a Pats fan at all.
Agreed with this...as I I have said before it's more about BB the GM right now then BB the Coach...we all know that BB the Coach is the best...the issue right now is has BB the GM given the Coach enough to work with...their drafting recently has not been good and there is no doubt as far as veterans go they have lost far more then they have brought in for the upcoming season...you look at that roster and there is no way to really know what the talent level is...is Stidham legit, can Wynn stay healthy, is Andrews OK, can Harry play like a first rounder, can the youngsters at LB replace the three vets they lost and what happens if Hightower gets hurt, will the D2 Safety translate to the pros, is Beau Allen an upgrade or downgrade from Shelton, is Winovich ready to be a starter, can Wise finally get consistent, can they rely on their rookie kicker, can Asiasi and Keene take the TE position from a black hole to a plus, did Damien Harris redshirt or is he a bust, can Sony Michel play like a legit lead back and how will the locker-room and crunch time during games be without Brady...this team has so many questions and while BB the Coach is as good as you get get BB the GM has had his fair share of hits and misses...so the question is will BB the Coach make a 5 win team a 7 win team or is this a 8 win team that he will turn into a 10 win team...it's very easy to see this season has more questions then at any time since 2001 and I think realistically they could be anywhere from a 6 to a 10 win team.I feel like this is a 6-8 win team, but the BB factor could be huge this year.
I've got to think the COVID-19 situation is going to screw up poorly coached/managed teams this year. BB will be prepared. Could see the BB factor accounting for 2 additional wins creating what should be a 6-8 win season more of a 8-9 win season.
Interesting read. I have the over-under on his 10 predictions for the new year at 1.5.Best case scenario if everything works out in 2020 for NE is a 5-11 record.
Ive always thought of Schein as a bit of a clown not to be taken seriously and the "look at me" 5-11 as best case scenario seems to fit his mo. He emphasizes NEs tuff schedule and appears oblivious to the raiders difficult run schedule in proclaiming jacobs the rushing champ. 5-11 much more likely worse case scenario.Best case scenario if everything works out in 2020 for NE is a 5-11 record.
So @Texans is not winnable? Belichick versus Jimmy G in Foxboro is not winnable?I just looked at your non-divisional schedule:
@Seahawks
Raiders
@Chiefs
Broncos
49ers
Ravens
@Texans
Cardinals
@Chargers
@Rams
I spy 5 winnable games. The winnability of those last two road west coast games will 100% on what your record is at that time.
The Patriots getting Trevor Lawrence will be great for the league.
On the road, I don't think so. The big variable is whether or not the Pats are playing for anything that late in the season.So @Texans is not winnable? Belichick versus Jimmy G in Foxboro is not winnable?
You really think the Pats can end up with #1? Keep dreamingBreezy H2O said:The good news is that you guys get a decade of Trevor Lawrence after this!!!
You really think Pats are going to pick #1?I just looked at your non-divisional schedule:
@Seahawks
Raiders
@Chiefs
Broncos
49ers
Ravens
@Texans
Cardinals
@Chargers
@Rams
I spy 5 winnable games. The winnability of those last two road west coast games will 100% on what your record is at that time.
The Patriots getting Trevor Lawrence will be great for the league.
Straight up? Nah. After a trade? Of course.You really think the Pats can end up with #1? Keep dreaming