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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (8 Viewers)

After some really bad drafts the Pats have turned it around the past two years...Mac and Barmore seem to be homeruns and Dugger, Uche, Onwenu and Stevenson look to be core pieces for the future...hopefully they can get something out of Perkins, McGrone and Bledsoe as they seem to be redshirt picks and Jennings could still be in the mix after losing this year due to his injury...the picks that really sting are Keene and Asiasi as you are getting absolutely nothing from these two third round picks and you also had to spend good money at TE in free agency due to that...as far as UDFA's go Miles Bryant is a guy I really like and is turning into a quality player that seems to be making big plays every week...JJ Taylor is another one but at least right now he appears to be a depth piece who's role is pretty limited.

 
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Boston said:
After some really bad drafts the Pats have turned it around the past two years...Mac and Barmore seem to be homeruns and Dugger, Uche, Onwenu and Stevenson look to be core pieces for the future...hopefully they can get something out of Perkins, McGrone and Bledsoe as they seem to be redshirt picks and Jennings could still be in the mix after losing this year due to his injury...the picks that really sting are Keene and Asiasi as you are getting absolutely nothing from these two third round picks and you also had to spend good money at TE in free agency due to that...as far as UDFA's go Miles Bryant is a guy I really like and is turning into a quality player that seems to be making big plays every week...JJ Taylor is another one but at least right now he appears to be a depth piece who's role is pretty limited.
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I'm also disappointed in the TE draft picks but every team misses on draft picks every year. The fact that they're getting hUGE production out of the other picks more than makes up for those whiffs. 

Still can't draft a WR for whatever reason ... Which is weird because so many quality ones have been available the last several drats.

Seems they will be drafting late again this year if things continue this direction. WR, CB, OL, LB, TE ... ?

 
After watching NE take care of business the last few weeks, ... I'm expecting them to completely ragdoll ATL tonight.

Harris / Stevenson should have 200 yards between them ... if McDaniels playcalling doesn't suck.

 
Bossman said:
I'm also disappointed in the TE draft picks but every team misses on draft picks every year. The fact that they're getting hUGE production out of the other picks more than makes up for those whiffs. 

Still can't draft a WR for whatever reason ... Which is weird because so many quality ones have been available the last several drats.

Seems they will be drafting late again this year if things continue this direction. WR, CB, OL, LB, TE ... ?
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Harry is such a killer...if he was just good, not great but good, it would be such a huge addition to this team...with Henry and Jonnu I don't see TE being too big of a need...besides WR I would like to see them target speed on the defense with LB being the focus...the kid from Georgia (Nakobe Dean) is not the size BB usually likes his LBs but he would be exactly what they need.

 
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Boston said:
Harry is such a killer...if he was just good, not great but good, it would be such a huge addition to this team...with Henry and Jonnu I don't see TE being too big of a need...besides WR I would like to see them target speed on the defense with LB being the focus...the kid from Georgia (Nakobe Dean) is not the size BB usually likes his LBs but he would be exactly what they need.
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Oddly enough, I think NE this year is happy with Harry. He's been an integral part of them running the ball effectively and getting receivers YAC. He's been very engaged and effective as a blocker. He's only played 150 snaps, but when he's played he's been an asset. PPF grades him at 77.3 so far this season, which is incredibly high for a guy with only 6 receptions and 103 receiving yards.

If you watch the highlights, he's sealing someone on the edge, tying up someone on the outside, or running interference on the second level. I know that isn't sexy and I know that's not what you want out of a first round pick, but it's the guys do the dirty work that don't show up in the box score that helps teams win. I've heard comments from players and coaches praising Harry for the work he's putting in. Getting buy in from everyone on the roster to try to win is what makes teams win.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Oddly enough, I think NE this year is happy with Harry. He's been an integral part of them running the ball effectively and getting receivers YAC. He's been very engaged and effective as a blocker. He's only played 150 snaps, but when he's played he's been an asset. PPF grades him at 77.3 so far this season, which is incredibly high for a guy with only 6 receptions and 103 receiving yards.

If you watch the highlights, he's sealing someone on the edge, tying up someone on the outside, or running interference on the second level. I know that isn't sexy and I know that's not what you want out of a first round pick, but it's the guys do the dirty work that don't show up in the box score that helps teams win. I've heard comments from players and coaches praising Harry for the work he's putting in. Getting buy in from everyone on the roster to try to win is what makes teams win.
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I don't disagree with you and if he was a 6th round pick instead of a 1st round pick this would be great but under no condition is this what you want out of your 1st round pick nor is it what they thought they were drafting...I give Harry credit for finding a way to be productive but if he was anywhere close to what a 1st round WR could be this team would be in a much better spot with their WR unit.

 
Boston said:
I don't disagree with you and if he was a 6th round pick instead of a 1st round pick this would be great but under no condition is this what you want out of your 1st round pick nor is it what they thought they were drafting...I give Harry credit for finding a way to be productive but if he was anywhere close to what a 1st round WR could be this team would be in a much better spot with their WR unit.
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I agree. But 40 cents on a dollar is better than 3 cents on a dollar. No way around suggesting that Harry has been anything but a bust. Oddly enough, Harry this year is more of what I thought Bourne was going to be and Bourne is more of what I thought Harry would be. At least Harry is cheap. Agholor and Smith don’t do much and collect hefty game checks. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I agree. But 40 cents on a dollar is better than 3 cents on a dollar. No way around suggesting that Harry has been anything but a bust. Oddly enough, Harry this year is more of what I thought Bourne was going to be and Bourne is more of what I thought Harry would be. At least Harry is cheap. Agholor and Smith don’t do much and collect hefty game checks. 
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Bourne looks great and appears to be getting better every week as does Henry...Meyers is what he is which is a solid, dependable WR...Agholor has his moments (not nearly enough) and as you point out he is not worth the contract but at least defenses have to pay attention to him...he has a 10 mil dead cap hit so he will be around another year...Jonnu really hurts...what he should be in theory (what they were doing with Hernandez) would be such a big boost to this offense...I really hope he can figure things out the rest of the year but no way is this what they thought they were getting when they jumped all over him at the beginning of free agency.

 
Boston said:
Bourne looks great and appears to be getting better every week as does Henry...Meyers is what he is which is a solid, dependable WR...Agholor has his moments (not nearly enough) and as you point out he is not worth the contract but at least defenses have to pay attention to him...he has a 10 mil dead cap hit so he will be around another year...Jonnu really hurts...what he should be in theory (what they were doing with Hernandez) would be such a big boost to this offense...I really hope he can figure things out the rest of the year but no way is this what they thought they were getting when they jumped all over him at the beginning of free agency.
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For fantasy, Bourne is limited by a conservative game plan and also playing time, based on what I read a few weeks ago. Is that still the case? 

Also, Hunter is so dependent on TDs, 8 in 8 games. Can he keep it up?

 
SoBeDad said:
For fantasy, Bourne is limited by a conservative game plan and also playing time, based on what I read a few weeks ago. Is that still the case? 

Also, Hunter is so dependent on TDs, 8 in 8 games. Can he keep it up?
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It will remain the case if the D continues playing like they have been...it is the smart way to play with a rookie QB...that being said I gotta believe there are gonna be some games where they have to open it up a bit because they are playing a good offense like Buffalo or because from a game-plan standpoint it will be the smart thing to do...but with how this team is built this year I do believe they would like to continue playing the way they have been...I do think Henry will keep it up as he and Mac have built a red-zone connection but he can only be considered a low-end #1 because the overall targets just aren't there...as for Bourne he is a better real WR then fantasy WR right now but he really seems to be a great fit with this offense and due to his big-play ability is worthy of a roster spot and a spot start if you are in an injury/bye jam but I would not want him as a regular starter on my fantasy team.

 
SoBeDad said:
For fantasy, Bourne is limited by a conservative game plan and also playing time, based on what I read a few weeks ago. Is that still the case? 

Also, Hunter is so dependent on TDs, 8 in 8 games. Can he keep it up?
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Bourne only plays half the snaps. So he will be limited fantasy wise, especially if the run game is working and they are ahead all game. Henry won’t score every game, but it’s doubtful most fantasy teams have a better option to play. 

 
Watched a highlight package of the ATL SB today. The Falcons were 99.6% to win with the ball and under 9 minutes to play.    Not even Disney would write a script where the Pats end up winning that game. Still can’t believe Edelman came down with the football. Absolutely epic ending for the Northeast. Rest of the country . . . not so much. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Watched a highlight package of the ATL SB today. The Falcons were 99.6% to win with the ball and under 9 minutes to play.    Not even Disney would write a script where the Pats end up winning that game. Still can’t believe Edelman came down with the football. Absolutely epic ending for the Northeast. Rest of the country . . . not so much. 
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The Patriots and Mr. Bündchen are also popular in Brazil. That's what my friend who married a Brazilian told me. Brady is more popular than Bill, Bob or the Patriots as a team.

 
They will smash TN next week. Book it.

Those RBs will not do any damage and they will lock up AJ Brown.

Collision course is now set for Buffalo.

 
PFF's grades through 11 games . . .

Jones - 86.9
Hoyer - 86.0

Harris - 85.5
Stevenson - 79.3
Bolden - 74.1
Taylor - 58.4

Harry - 77.4
Bourne - 75.4
Meyers - 71.7
Agholor - 68.1
Gunner - 60.6

Henry - 71.9
Smith - 52.2

Onwenu - 88.7
Mason - 84.3
Brown - 78.8
Andrews - 72.2
Wynn - 71.5
Karras - 69.1
Durant - 62.6
Cajuste - 55.7
Harron - 48.3

Wise - 68.8
Barmore - 61.8
Uche - 60.1
Guy - 57.3
Winovich - 55.6
Godchaux - 53.9
Davis - 46.0

Judon - 69.3
Van Noy - 67.7
Munson - 64.3
Hightower - 59.5
Bentley - 58.5
Tavai - 57.4
King - 31.0

Phillips - 82.9
McCourty - 72.1
Dugger - 70.1
Bethel - 63.3

Jackson - 74.6
Bryant - 70.0
Williams - 67.7
Wade - 64.8
Mills - 60.1
Bentley - 58.5

PFF not a fan of the LB corps or DLine. Harry being the highest rated WR is shocking, but he is #1 or #2 in the league as a blocking receiver. Phillips is their highest rated defender. You wouldn't know how well the defense has been playing given these ratings. I don't have time to look it up, but I doubt there is another team with 5 OL men rated 70+.

 

 
Anarchy99 said:
PFF's grades through 11 games . . .

Jones - 86.9
Hoyer - 86.0

Harris - 85.5
Stevenson - 79.3
Bolden - 74.1
Taylor - 58.4

Harry - 77.4
Bourne - 75.4
Meyers - 71.7
Agholor - 68.1
Gunner - 60.6

Henry - 71.9
Smith - 52.2

Onwenu - 88.7
Mason - 84.3
Brown - 78.8
Andrews - 72.2
Wynn - 71.5
Karras - 69.1
Durant - 62.6
Cajuste - 55.7
Harron - 48.3

Wise - 68.8
Barmore - 61.8
Uche - 60.1
Guy - 57.3
Winovich - 55.6
Godchaux - 53.9
Davis - 46.0

Judon - 69.3
Van Noy - 67.7
Munson - 64.3
Hightower - 59.5
Bentley - 58.5
Tavai - 57.4
King - 31.0

Phillips - 82.9
McCourty - 72.1
Dugger - 70.1
Bethel - 63.3

Jackson - 74.6
Bryant - 70.0
Williams - 67.7
Wade - 64.8
Mills - 60.1
Bentley - 58.5

PFF not a fan of the LB corps or DLine. Harry being the highest rated WR is shocking, but he is #1 or #2 in the league as a blocking receiver. Phillips is their highest rated defender. You wouldn't know how well the defense has been playing given these ratings. I don't have time to look it up, but I doubt there is another team with 5 OL men rated 70+.

 
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For comparison, Miami's left side is in the 40s (Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson), the right side is 60 (Robert Hunt) and 52.9 (Jesse Davis) and the average of the 3 centers is in the 50s. Probably the worst in the league.

For fantasy purposes, maybe Tua is underrated and Mac could be in for a tougher year in 2022 unless his line stays intact and he gets an upgrade at WR. And will his defense be as good as it is now?  Poor defenses contribute to better fantasy production in many cases. Also, the QB can make a line look better, with either quick decisions and release, or mobility. Marino had a stretch of 19 games without a sack, the line was good at pass protection, but alot of that was his quick release and decision-making, and great pocket presence.  I think Mac and the system boost their oline grades as he makes quick (and good) decisions on most plays. He does seem to get hard alot by holding onto the ball until the last second. His ceiling is not high, but his floor will rise in 2022. 

 
I don't know what sorcery or secret sauce Football Outsiders uses, but they have NE at 33.7% to win the SB. TB is second at 11.4%. I expect it involves some weighted DVOA calculation, an abacus, and a T-Square, but they are big on the Pats. 53.8% to win the AFC. KC has the second highest chance at 13.0%.

 
Anarchy99 said:
I don't know what sorcery or secret sauce Football Outsiders uses, but they have NE at 33.7% to win the SB. TB is second at 11.4%. I expect it involves some weighted DVOA calculation, an abacus, and a T-Square, but they are big on the Pats. 53.8% to win the AFC. KC has the second highest chance at 13.0%.
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A TB vs NE matchup in the SB might break viewing records. Over 50% to win 2 games and reach the SB seems high. 

 
SoBeDad said:
A TB vs NE matchup in the SB might break viewing records. Over 50% to win 2 games and reach the SB seems high. 
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I know I mentioned not really knowing how FO evaluates things (which was probably half true), but I do know they heavily weigh recent performances and exclude results from earlier games. They also use net differentials across multiple statistics. NE has been lighting it up across just about every area. And when you then project them against teams with low scores or mixed bag results, that's how they become NextGen stat favorites. I am pretty sure their data analytics are accurate and show the proper probabilities . . . but I am pretty confident it does not account for playing a rookie QB, injury risk, weather, etc.

Bottom line, I think NE maybe could advance that far, but to suggest that they are 3 times more likely than any other team to win the SB? That's crazy talk. 

 
It's kind of crazy that year two of the "who needed who" debate may end up with both Brady and Bill winning a superbowl back to back.

 
I don't personally think they even beat the Chiefs in the AFC, nor Buffalo at home. I think we're watching the Patriots play their best football right now. 

 
rockaction said:
I don't personally think they even beat the Chiefs in the AFC, nor Buffalo at home. I think we're watching the Patriots play their best football right now. 
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They do tend to get better as the season progresses.  Of course, teams do have to stay healthy

Neither Buffalo or the Chiefs has been particularly impressive.  I think the Colts are on the right trajectory.

 
DropKick said:
They do tend to get better as the season progresses.  Of course, teams do have to stay healthy

Neither Buffalo or the Chiefs has been particularly impressive.  I think the Colts are on the right trajectory.
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This they do. Belichick's teams seem to peak late in the year. I just think that having Mac Jones leaves them really exposed. Even in the Dallas game, he only made a couple of top-notch throws. And I mean literally a couple. I think it's their defense and running game that's propelled them (I don't think I'll get much of an argument there) and that the passing game will have to be called on at some point during the end of the year or the playoffs. And I'm not sure I've seen Jones look like a guy that'll win you a tough game. 

That's my two cents. Hey, I'm a Jets homer. I hate the Pats. Hey salty homers, take it all with a grain of salt. 

;)

 
rockaction said:
This they do. Belichick's teams seem to peak late in the year. I just think that having Mac Jones leaves them really exposed. Even in the Dallas game, he only made a couple of top-notch throws. And I mean literally a couple. I think it's their defense and running game that's propelled them (I don't think I'll get much of an argument there) and that the passing game will have to be called on at some point during the end of the year or the playoffs. And I'm not sure I've seen Jones look like a guy that'll win you a tough game. 

That's my two cents. Hey, I'm a Jets homer. I hate the Pats. Hey salty homers, take it all with a grain of salt. 

;)
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Dallas was his 6th NFL start.  He has looked very good lately, see the Browns and Titans game.  But, yes, a rookie QB is almost always a liability as is the first play-off appearances.

 
rockaction said:
This they do. Belichick's teams seem to peak late in the year. I just think that having Mac Jones leaves them really exposed. Even in the Dallas game, he only made a couple of top-notch throws. And I mean literally a couple. I think it's their defense and running game that's propelled them (I don't think I'll get much of an argument there) and that the passing game will have to be called on at some point during the end of the year or the playoffs. And I'm not sure I've seen Jones look like a guy that'll win you a tough game. 

That's my two cents. Hey, I'm a Jets homer. I hate the Pats. Hey salty homers, take it all with a grain of salt. 

;)
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Boy, I don't know where I have heard that scenario and doubts before...

 
But even with that acknowledgement, I'm here to tell you that you only get one GOAT in this lifetime. The odds run out eventually. 

 
Lucky Number Seven: number of 7 game winning streaks since 2000 (14 games or more count as 2, must be in same season).

14: NE
7: IND, PIT
5: KC, GB, NO
4: LAC
3: SF, PHI, LAR, SEA, CAR
2: ARI, DAL, MIN, DEN, BAL, TEN, NYG, CHI, HOU, ATL
1: WAS, TB, BUF, CIN
Dream On: MIA, CLE, DET, NYJ, LV, JAC

Pats had streaks in 12 seasons and went to SB in 7 of them (had 2 streaks of 14 or more games).

 
Anarchy99 said:
I don’t believe that is the plan. BB said this week they won’t be resting people. Treating it like a playoff game. Certainly that may change as the game and other scores go. But I bet both guys will play. 
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BB would only hold out Harris if medical staff and Harris helped make the call. Prolly both play, you're right. I am prolly going to start Stephenson in the Flex regardless. 

 
I couldn't resist looking at the weather forecast for gametime in Buffalo.

It will be about 19 degrees and 30%-40% chance of precipiation. Winds will only be around 10 mph.

 
Dynasty said:
I couldn't resist looking at the weather forecast for gametime in Buffalo.

It will be about 19 degrees and 30%-40% chance of precipiation. Winds will only be around 10 mph.
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Humorous unintentional reveal of Pats fans psyche....we know we can't win without a repeat of game 1 weather.

I'm not trying to bash Mac Jones; he's had a great rookie season.  But the Bills' deathstar is fully operational and you need a seasoned qb to go toe to toe with Allen on a neutral field.

 
I will take 10 wins,  making the playoffs while solidifying the QB position and seeing some of the youngsters develop...this season is a success and its house $ now as I just don't see them knocking off the Bills...one thing I am not liking is the slow starts and the number of mental errors as well as some questionable coaching...hopefully BB takes a good look at this staff after the season...still a lot of work to do to become a championship contender but I feel 1,000,000 times better than I did this time last year.

 
I would not want to play NE this postseason. almost all AFC teams have coaches with no playoff experience. NE owns KCs mojo, BB will always coach them up against Reid. He's beaten the Bills, Titans,  etc. 

 
Boston said:
Rumor that Robby Anderson is a potential trade target...a little crazy off the field but he would be a nice fit for them.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/patriots-have-shown-interest-in-trading-for-panthers-robby-anderson-per-report/
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Is he any better than what they have? He’s signed for two years and $25 million. He played in 17 games last year and only had 519 receiving yards and a 9.8 YPR. I don’t think he’s an upgrade and certainly don’t think he’s worth the money. 

There’s been rumblings of NE going after Ridley for a 2nd rounder and pieces. I’d much rather they did that. 

Bottom line, they need to get much more out of the WRs and TEs they brought in last year. They are going to have to pay them anyway. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Is he any better than what they have? He’s signed for two years and $25 million. He played in 17 games last year and only had 519 receiving yards and a 9.8 YPR. I don’t think he’s an upgrade and certainly don’t think he’s worth the money. 

There’s been rumblings of NE going after Ridley for a 2nd rounder and pieces. I’d much rather they did that. 

Bottom line, they need to get much more out of the WRs and TEs they brought in last year. They are going to have to pay them anyway. 
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Agreed, I am not interested in Anderson at all and they need a lot more at wr; lukewarm on Ridley. NE WRs...sigh...........

 
Ministry of Pain said:
KVN is said to be released by the Patriots clearing $5M in cap space. 
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Yes to the first part, mostly true on the second part. His roster spot and cap allocation will get filled by the next highest contract on the roster, which is $1 million. The team will save $4 million against the cap.

 
Here's the state of the team from a salary cap and value perspective. The big list has each player's 2022 cap hit followed by OverTheCap's contract value they would say that plyer is worth based on his performance, playing time, other contracts, etc. The shorter list is for guys that are now free agents and what their cap hit was for 2021.

 

Player Cap Hit Value Net
MJones 3.5 25.2 21.7
Phillips 3.2 8.2 5
Barmore 1.9 6.4 4.5
Dugger 2.3 6 3.7
Onwenu 1 4.2 3.2
Durant 0.9 4 3.1
Cajuste 1 4 3
Harris 1.2 3.9 2.7
Andrews 6.4 8.6 2.2
Bryant 0.9 2.6 1.7
Stevenson 1 1.6 0.6
Herron 0.9 1.5 0.6
Davis 2.3 2.5 0.2
Winovich 1.2 1.3 0.1
Langi 1 1.1 0.1
Tavai 1.2 1.1 -0.1
Taylor 0.9 0.8 -0.1
Bethel 2 1.8 -0.2
Guy 4.5 4.2 -0.3
Uche 1.5 1.2 -0.3
Cardona 1.3 0.9 -0.4
Ozigbo 1 0.6 -0.4
Wilkerson 0.8 0.4 -0.4
Wade 0.8 0.2 -0.6
Williams 1.8 1.1 -0.7
Ekuale 1.1 0.4 -0.7
Asiasi 1.2 0.3 -0.9
Mason 10.1 9 -1.1
Bourne 6.4 5.1 -1.3
Bailey 4 2 -2
Harry 3.2 0.8 -2.4
Judon 16.5 13.9 -2.6
Wise 6.2 3.1 -3.1
Anderson 3.7 0.1 -3.6
Wynn 10.4 6.3 -4.1
Godchaux 10.2 4.5 -5.7
Henry 15 8.8 -6.2
JJones 7.7 1.3 -6.4
Agholor 14.9 4.5 -10.4
Smith 13.7 3 -10.7

Free Agents Cap Hit Value Net
Jackson 3.4 13.8 10.4
Meyers 0.9 10.1 9.2
Bentley 1 4.7 3.7
Karras 3 6.1 3.1
Collins 1.1 2.2 1.1
Johnson 0.9 1.6 0.7
King 1.4 1.9 0.5
Brown 7.6 8 0.4
Gunner 0.9 1.2 0.3
Langi 1 1.1 0.1
Folk 1.4 1.4 0
Slater 3 1.9 -1.1
White 2.3 0.9 -1.4
McCourty 11 9.5 -1.5
Hightower 12.4 2.3 -10.1


As you can see, they got themselves into some contracts that they probably can't get out of. Mack, JC, and Jakobi kept the team afloat in terms of value. Jackson wants $20 million a year, so I am fine with the Pats letting him go (they can't fit him under the cap anyway). Their big-name free agent signings carried a negative $40+ million in net value. Luckily, based on the value of the QB position, if they can start getting away from the high dollar, low producer contracts, they can better add more talent around Mac. As far as Hightower goes . . . time to move on.

 
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