Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (8 Viewers)

[pinkstapler]

I've read through a few pages and didn't see any comments on it; or it's own thread, but I'd really like to know actual Patriot fans take on it. Now that it's finished, what are the thoughts on the Apple TV documentary "The Dynasty". I'll hold my personal opinion for now as a non-fan, but suffice to say, it was not at all what I was expecting.

Pats fan all my life, beginning with the Steve Grogan era, I refuse to pay for Apple TV just to watch this. I'll catch it when it makes it's way to Netflix or wherever.
... but local radio hosts saying that it paints Belichick as the villain and Bob Kraft as the "good guy" glue that held it together.

That was largely my take away, and tbh, it wasn't some crazy leap to get there. It was fairly blatant. It was nice seeing the article Boston posted where McCourty and Harrison called it out as well. I was pretty taken aback the way it not only painted Belichick in a bad light for things we've previously heard like benching Butler; but it went as far as insinuating he's at fault for Hernandez killing Odin Lloyd. Least it felt that way to me. It felt farcical at times, miles and miles worse than the bias found in the Jordon doc lots of people got upset about. It also felt like Belichick realized what was going on, as many of his interviews came off like the Marshawn Lynch "I'm just here so I don't get fined"; which is a real shame since when he is engaged, I think BB is a captivating story teller.

After watching the whole thing, I see now why even NFL Films pulled away and tried to distance themselves from it. The whole thing was a major let down for me. I'm not even a Pats fan, and somehow they managed to turn a 20 year dynasty, one of the most impressive ever IMO, into a mostly negative thing. Very little of it was joyous or focusing on positives. Entire Super Bowls were glazed over in favor of full episodes spent on deflate gate, and Hernandez. It was more like Kraft building a case for a HOF bid for himself. I dunno, the whole thing made me pretty pissed and I was surprised I wasn't seeing more vitriol for it here. But also I forget not everyone pirates media and is able to watch content without subscribing to like 15 streaming services now. It was so bad I almost wouldn't recommend fans watch it. Not the way I'd want to be remembering the past two decades.

 

[Boston]

Excellent article from Phil Perry:

Perry's Prototypical Patriots: One QB fits 'Packer Way' to a tee

What is Eliot Wolf looking for in his next quarterback? Phil Perry kicks off his Prototypical Patriots series by identifying five QB prospects who fit the ‘Packer Way’ mold.

www.nbcsportsboston.com

You know who fits the prototypical profile? Mac Jones.

Not sure you read the article but the prototype involved a strong-arm, being able to throw on the run, leadership and intangibles…none of which Mac checks the box on.

Jones coming out of Alabama checked the physical traits, leadership, and intangible boxes in spades. He also had additional strengths in accuracy, strength of competition, and processing / understanding of the game.

He did not need to throw on the run very often, but from what I remember, he did fairly well in college when they rolled him out. He never had a rocket for an arm, but that was the one knock against him.

But he was also rumored to have been a candidate for being the #3 pick to SF. He didn’t work out in NE, but as a prospect, he was pretty close to the items on the list.

Not really…he was seen as a Hi IQ guy with limited physical traits (I.e. mobility and arm) who was going to be pro-ready and be very good at processing.

 

[Boston]

There's a lot of complaints in the local media about not getting FA's that are near the end of their career. Some would make the team better for a season or 2 but are any likely to be on the next squad that WINS a playoff game?
This team needs good young players and it's going to take at least 2 good drafts before they can be good enough that 30 year old fa's can help them.

I don’t think that is what some are getting at with regard to this…the issue is the roster is depleted so to stop the bleeding and have it be functional they need to add quality football players regardless of the age…this would also allow for more draft flexibility as this roster is rebuilt…it would also put the young QB they look to be drafting in a much better place to succeed…anyone who is even thinking of playoffs right now is delusional…it is about making the team functional and because they have a huge amount of cap space they have/had the ability to make some short term moves that usually wouldn’t make sense but since they are so far away it would make sense now.

 

[Anarchy99]

There's a lot of complaints in the local media about not getting FA's that are near the end of their career. Some would make the team better for a season or 2 but are any likely to be on the next squad that WINS a playoff game?
This team needs good young players and it's going to take at least 2 good drafts before they can be good enough that 30 year old fa's can help them.

If we look at all the NE drafts going back 25 years. Other than some of the black hole drafts of recent years, most years they found 2-3 starters or solid contributors. IMO, that's the realistic upside in any draft. There weren't really any years where they ended up with 4 really good picks. IMO, the "best realistic outcome" for them is they draft 6 guys that become starters in the next two drafts. Jump ahead three seasons . . . who on the current roster (pre-draft) would they have an interest in keeping that far from now? Douglas? Barmore? Stevenson? Gonzalez? Onwenu? Bentley? (I doubt they reup Stevenson, as they haven't shown much desire in the past to keep RBs around).

The salary cap issue moving forward will be that they don't really have a strong core of talent to build around and want to re-sign (look at the number of guys they signed to a second contract over the past 10 years . . . practically none). They will have a war chest of cap room, they won't really have many guys currently on the roster they will want to bring back, meaning if they spend the cap money they've built up, it will have to be on free agents. They currently rank #1 in effective cap space remaining for this year ($41M), #1 in effective cap space in 2025 ($139m), #2 in effective cap space in 2026 ($179M), and don't even show up on the 2027 salary cap chart because they don't have a single player signed that far in the future when the cap is projected to reach $314M.

So 3 years from now, they might have 5 or 6 guys to keep around from the current roster (not the newly drafted guys, the ones on the roster before this draft), a bunch of guys on rookie deals over the next two seasons, and almost $180M to spend . . . on whom?

 

[Insomniac]

I'm not objecting to spending money (overpaying) on FAs for short term contracts but not when there is so little talent on a team. There's a need to get some players good enough to make All Pro some years in there career. Is there anyone besides Barmore and Gonzales that you think even has a chance? No guarantee a high draft pick is going to, just a #3-5 pick has a better chance than a #12 pick.
I don't want to see a 4-13 season but even if they signed some of the FAs talked about and they won 6 or 7 games you still won't get good FAs and you'll have less chance to get some studs.
They should sign Barmore to an extension and if that means overpaying so be it. He at least looks like he could be an AP and he's young enough to be a good player when the team can get back to the playoffs.

 

[rockaction]

I was pretty taken aback the way it not only painted Belichick in a bad light for things we've previously heard like benching Butler; but it went as far as insinuating he's at fault for Hernandez killing Odin Lloyd

Dude, that's Boston. They would call David Ortiz a baby killer on his way out of town if it helped the PR department of the current franchise. Boston's always been that way since the '70s and is part of the reason why players hate playing there and often feel no loyalty to the area.

I watched it as a Red Sox fan and totally understand the players now. Same old story, year after year and sport after sport with these guys.

 

[Boston]

I'm not objecting to spending money (overpaying) on FAs for short term contracts but not when there is so little talent on a team. There's a need to get some players good enough to make All Pro some years in there career. Is there anyone besides Barmore and Gonzales that you think even has a chance? No guarantee a high draft pick is going to, just a #3-5 pick has a better chance than a #12 pick.
I don't want to see a 4-13 season but even if they signed some of the FAs talked about and they won 6 or 7 games you still won't get good FAs and you'll have less chance to get some studs.
They should sign Barmore to an extension and if that means overpaying so be it. He at least looks like he could be an AP and he's young enough to be a good player when the team can get back to the playoffs.

Not to be a pain but I don’t understand your point…are you saying they shouldn’t sign any free agents and not touch their salary cap space?

 

[Boston]

I was pretty taken aback the way it not only painted Belichick in a bad light for things we've previously heard like benching Butler; but it went as far as insinuating he's at fault for Hernandez killing Odin Lloyd

Dude, that's Boston. They would call David Ortiz a baby killer on his way out of town if it helped the PR department of the current franchise. Boston's always been that way since the '70s and is part of the reason why players hate playing there and often feel no loyalty to the area.

I watched it as a Red Sox fan and totally understand the players now. Same old story, year after year and sport after sport with these guys.

Dennis Eckersley has the best quote…”Boston is the best place to play when you are winning and the worst place to play when you are losing.”

 

[Insomniac]

I'm not objecting to spending money (overpaying) on FAs for short term contracts but not when there is so little talent on a team. There's a need to get some players good enough to make All Pro some years in there career. Is there anyone besides Barmore and Gonzales that you think even has a chance? No guarantee a high draft pick is going to, just a #3-5 pick has a better chance than a #12 pick.
I don't want to see a 4-13 season but even if they signed some of the FAs talked about and they won 6 or 7 games you still won't get good FAs and you'll have less chance to get some studs.
They should sign Barmore to an extension and if that means overpaying so be it. He at least looks like he could be an AP and he's young enough to be a good player when the team can get back to the playoffs.

Not to be a pain but I don’t understand your point…are you saying they shouldn’t sign any free agents and not touch their salary cap space?

No if they could sign a FA that will still be a good player 2 seasons from now - when MAYBE - they could contend for a playoff spot I'd be for it.

 

[Boston]

I'm not objecting to spending money (overpaying) on FAs for short term contracts but not when there is so little talent on a team. There's a need to get some players good enough to make All Pro some years in there career. Is there anyone besides Barmore and Gonzales that you think even has a chance? No guarantee a high draft pick is going to, just a #3-5 pick has a better chance than a #12 pick.
I don't want to see a 4-13 season but even if they signed some of the FAs talked about and they won 6 or 7 games you still won't get good FAs and you'll have less chance to get some studs.
They should sign Barmore to an extension and if that means overpaying so be it. He at least looks like he could be an AP and he's young enough to be a good player when the team can get back to the playoffs.

Not to be a pain but I don’t understand your point…are you saying they shouldn’t sign any free agents and not touch their salary cap space?

No if they could sign a FA that will still be a good player 2 seasons from now - when MAYBE - they could contend for a playoff spot I'd be for it.

I think that is the ultimate goal but right now it is about fielding a functional roster and most importantly putting the soon-to-be young QB in the best position to develop...it does them zero good to not use cap space...use it up on some short-term/one-year contracts with guys who can help you be at least competitive and are good fits in the locker-room (while having almost no effect on the cap when they will hopefully be good again)...their cap situation is ridiculously good the next few years...they couldn't screw that up if they tried.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I was pretty taken aback the way it not only painted Belichick in a bad light for things we've previously heard like benching Butler; but it went as far as insinuating he's at fault for Hernandez killing Odin Lloyd

Dude, that's Boston. They would call David Ortiz a baby killer on his way out of town if it helped the PR department of the current franchise. Boston's always been that way since the '70s and is part of the reason why players hate playing there and often feel no loyalty to the area.

I watched it as a Red Sox fan and totally understand the players now. Same old story, year after year and sport after sport with these guys.

I laugh my tail off every time I think of Oil Can Boyd's relationship with the Boston Media.

 

[rockaction]

I laugh my tail off every time I think of Oil Can Boyd's relationship with the Boston Media.

I was too young for Oil Can but remember him being sort of a beloved figure when I was a kid. I was about thirteen in '86. I don't know the nuances of his media relationship with the Boston sports writers. I just spent like twenty minutes on it and can't really suss out what the relationship was characterized by. Lil' help?

 

[RC94]

We're doing a mock draft. If anyone wants to take NE, or any other team, here's the thread: https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/fbg-mock-draft.812151/

 

[elguapo07]

We're doing a mock draft. If anyone wants to take NE, or any other team, here's the thread: https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/fbg-mock-draft.812151/

Just set the NE pick to auto pick and put a couple ST players as placeholders for the pick as I’m sure it won’t be far off from their actual pick.

 

[Bossman]

Am I the only one that thinks they had an excellent draft last year?
Most of these guys were productive and contributing in their first year. I'm excited to see how they perform in their sophomore season.
It also seemed like these players were taken at or below where they were projected
... compared to the typical NE practice of reaching for guys they could have had a round or three later ... because we're smarter than everyone else.
With the exception of the kicker, I can't criticize any of these gets;

Round 1, Pick 17 Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Round 2, Pick 46 Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
Round 3, Pick 76 Marte Mapu, S, Sacramento State
Round 4, Pick 107 Jake Andrews, G, Troy
Round 4, Pick 112 Chad Ryland, K, Maryland
Round 4, Pick 117 Sidy Sow, OL, Eastern Michigan
Round 5, Pick 144 Antonio Mafi, OL, UCLA
Round 6, Pick 187 Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
Round 6, Pick 192 Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan St.
Round 6, Pick 210* Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty
Round 6, Pick 214 Ameer Speed, CB, Michigan State
Round 7, Pick 245 Isaiah Bolden, CB, Jackson State

 

[kyoun1e]

This may define getting cute, but I wonder if NE could have their cake and eat it. That is, trade down and still get their guy at QB?

Let's say they value QBs 1 - 4 equally and would be happy with either Maye, Daniels, or McCarthy. Could they:

1) Trade down with MN. Acquire 11, 23, next year's first, maybe another 3rd (maybe too much).
2) Use new ammo to trade back up (cheaper than MN) to grab QB number 4.

If MN trades up, you've eliminated the largest demand for the QBs.

Potential landmines:

* NYGs at 6. Are they interested in moving on from D. Jones? Getting mixed vibes there.
* DEN at 12: Definitely need a QB, but do they have the ammo?
* LV at 13: Ditto.

If they have more ammo than all three above, I wonder if they could trade down and then trade back up to #4 at worse.

May end up being a wash, but maybe not if NYG/DEN/LV aren't really interested and the demand for pick #4 is significantly less than #3.

 

[kyoun1e]

Am I the only one that thinks they had an excellent draft last year?
Most of these guys were productive and contributing in their first year. I'm excited to see how they perform in their sophomore season.
It also seemed like these players were taken at or below where they were projected
... compared to the typical NE practice of reaching for guys they could have had a round or three later ... because we're smarter than everyone else.
With the exception of the kicker, I can't criticize any of these gets;

Round 1, Pick 17 Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Round 2, Pick 46 Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
Round 3, Pick 76 Marte Mapu, S, Sacramento State
Round 4, Pick 107 Jake Andrews, G, Troy
Round 4, Pick 112 Chad Ryland, K, Maryland
Round 4, Pick 117 Sidy Sow, OL, Eastern Michigan
Round 5, Pick 144 Antonio Mafi, OL, UCLA
Round 6, Pick 187 Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
Round 6, Pick 192 Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan St.
Round 6, Pick 210* Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty
Round 6, Pick 214 Ameer Speed, CB, Michigan State
Round 7, Pick 245 Isaiah Bolden, CB, Jackson State

So much hype on Mapu all last preseason. Really hoping he's a sleeper this year.

 

[Anarchy99]

Am I the only one that thinks they had an excellent draft last year?

I don't know if you are the only one. They had a few players do pretty well in limited roles / playing time. I generally look at PFF player grades / scores to get an objective perspective on how players performed. Generally speaking, a score of 90+ is in the range of All-Pro level, 80+ Pro Bowl level, 70+ starter level, and anything below that is usual a below average / replacement level score. Here's how PFF rated the NE draft class from last season . . .

Round 1, Pick 17 Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon - 80.8
Round 2, Pick 46 Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech - 64,2
Round 3, Pick 76 Marte Mapu, S, Sacramento State - 50.0
Round 4, Pick 107 Jake Andrews, G, Troy - 53.0
Round 4, Pick 112 Chad Ryland, K, Maryland - 40.0
Round 4, Pick 117 Sidy Sow, OL, Eastern Michigan - 64.4
Round 5, Pick 144 Antonio Mafi, OL, UCLA - 32.3
Round 6, Pick 187 Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU - 47.1
Round 6, Pick 192 Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan St. - 70.3
Round 6, Pick 210* Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty - 74.4
Round 6, Pick 214 Ameer Speed, CB, Michigan State - 72.0
Round 7, Pick 245 Isaiah Bolden, CB, Jackson State - N/A (not enough playing time)

AS I mentioned earlier, in NE's good drafts over the past 25 years, they hit on 3 players. Maybe the three guys from this draft turn out to be Gonzalez, Douglas, and the punter. Most of the other players didn't fare all that well . . . but they certainly could improve over time and with more playing time.

 

[Boston]

Am I the only one that thinks they had an excellent draft last year?
Most of these guys were productive and contributing in their first year. I'm excited to see how they perform in their sophomore season.
It also seemed like these players were taken at or below where they were projected
... compared to the typical NE practice of reaching for guys they could have had a round or three later ... because we're smarter than everyone else.
With the exception of the kicker, I can't criticize any of these gets;

Round 1, Pick 17 Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Round 2, Pick 46 Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
Round 3, Pick 76 Marte Mapu, S, Sacramento State
Round 4, Pick 107 Jake Andrews, G, Troy
Round 4, Pick 112 Chad Ryland, K, Maryland
Round 4, Pick 117 Sidy Sow, OL, Eastern Michigan
Round 5, Pick 144 Antonio Mafi, OL, UCLA
Round 6, Pick 187 Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
Round 6, Pick 192 Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan St.
Round 6, Pick 210* Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty
Round 6, Pick 214 Ameer Speed, CB, Michigan State
Round 7, Pick 245 Isaiah Bolden, CB, Jackson State

Agreed…Gonzalez looks like a potential legit #1 CB…White definitely looks the part and should be a good one…Pop is a steal in the 6th…Sow, Mafi and Andrews all look like they could have NFL careers…would like to see one step up to starter level…with Mike O committing to RT if Sow could take over that Guard spot that would be huge…Mapu will be interesting…there was a lot of hype in the preseason but that really didn’t carry over to the regular season…he played low level D1 so hopefully he takes a step forward…hopefully Baringer keeps it going and doesn’t pull a Jake Bailey…overall it looks like it could be a quality draft that could be part of the future…my issue with it at the time (and now) was the lack of legit skill position talent as well as ignoring adding any OT talent while drafting a kicker (they should have just kept Folk), a punter and using the #3 on Mapu…they really needed to add to those areas…and everyone but BB knew it.

 

[Bossman]

Am I the only one that thinks they had an excellent draft last year?

I don't know if you are the only one. They had a few players do pretty well in limited roles / playing time. I generally look at PFF player grades / scores to get an objective perspective on how players performed. Generally speaking, a score of 90+ is in the range of All-Pro level, 80+ Pro Bowl level, 70+ starter level, and anything below that is usual a below average / replacement level score. Here's how PFF rated the NE draft class from last season . . .

Round 1, Pick 17 Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon - 80.8
Round 2, Pick 46 Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech - 64,2
Round 3, Pick 76 Marte Mapu, S, Sacramento State - 50.0
Round 4, Pick 107 Jake Andrews, G, Troy - 53.0
Round 4, Pick 112 Chad Ryland, K, Maryland - 40.0
Round 4, Pick 117 Sidy Sow, OL, Eastern Michigan - 64.4
Round 5, Pick 144 Antonio Mafi, OL, UCLA - 32.3
Round 6, Pick 187 Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU - 47.1
Round 6, Pick 192 Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan St. - 70.3
Round 6, Pick 210* Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty - 74.4
Round 6, Pick 214 Ameer Speed, CB, Michigan State - 72.0
Round 7, Pick 245 Isaiah Bolden, CB, Jackson State - N/A (not enough playing time)

AS I mentioned earlier, in NE's good drafts over the past 25 years, they hit on 3 players. Maybe the three guys from this draft turn out to be Gonzalez, Douglas, and the punter. Most of the other players didn't fare all that well . . . but they certainly could improve over time and with more playing time.

Wasn't PFF the same outfit that told you that NE's offensive line was top 10 recently? ... lol
We're talking about their rookie season, which in many cases above, was limited by position depth and/or injuries.
The more that I think about it, this is a terrible way to evaluate the rookie draft class after their first season.

 

[Anarchy99]

Wasn't PFF the same outfit that told you that NE's offensive line was top 10 recently? ... lol
We're talking about their rookie season, which in many cases above, was limited by position depth and/or injuries.
The more that I think about it, this is a terrible way to evaluate the rookie draft class after their first season.

The PFF grades are based on how well players did in the snaps they actually played (as long as they played 20% of the time). It's not a cumulative score or a counting stat like passing yards or receiving TD scored. It's more of a relativity score, meaning how players stacked up compared to their peers in the plays they saw live action on. I won't argue that guys may have played better if they got more playing time, but we can't tell what could have happened on plays that they were not a part of.

The NE offensive line as a unit got high scores across several games in mid- to late- 2022, and at one point in December, PFF had them playing as a Top 10 unit (over the previous month). But their scores over the full year weren't great.

2022 Season Grades
Onwenu 79.3, DAndrews 74.5,Brown 67.2, McDermott 65.8, Cajuste 65.7, Cannon 63.7, Strange 54,6, Wynn 54.6, Ferentz 53.4

2023 Season Grades
Brown 80.2, Onwneu 71.5, DAndrews 71.2, McDermott 67.8, Strange 64,6, Sow 64.4, JAndrews 53.0, Anderson 44.6, Lowe 41.7, Mafi 32.3

The scores are based on things like penalties, missed blocks, QB pressures, sacks allowed, etc. The OL overall wasn't great in 2022, but there were several guys that played poor enough last year that the line was a serious issue when they were in the game. It's not a perfect assessment of how players did, but it's better than nothing . . . and likely better than the eye test where people will remember a few good plays but not be fully aware of some really bad ones. That holds true on defense, where people might remember a good tackle, a sack, or an interception . . . but not a missed tackle, a DPI penalty, or failing to set the age and a play that should have gone for no gain went for 50 yards.

 

[Bossman]

Wasn't PFF the same outfit that told you that NE's offensive line was top 10 recently? ... lol
We're talking about their rookie season, which in many cases above, was limited by position depth and/or injuries.
The more that I think about it, this is a terrible way to evaluate the rookie draft class after their first season.

The PFF grades are based on how well players did in the snaps they actually played (as long as they played 20% of the time). It's not a cumulative score or a counting stat like passing yards or receiving TD scored. It's more of a relativity score, meaning how players stacked up compared to their peers in the plays they saw live action on. I won't argue that guys may have played better if they got more playing time, but we can't tell what could have happened on plays that they were not a part of.

The NE offensive line as a unit got high scores across several games in mid- to late- 2022, and at one point in December, PFF had them playing as a Top 10 unit (over the previous month). But their scores over the full year weren't great.

2022 Season Grades
Onwenu 79.3, DAndrews 74.5,Brown 67.2, McDermott 65.8, Cajuste 65.7, Cannon 63.7, Strange 54,6, Wynn 54.6, Ferentz 53.4

2023 Season Grades
Brown 80.2, Onwneu 71.5, DAndrews 71.2, McDermott 67.8, Strange 64,6, Sow 64.4, JAndrews 53.0, Anderson 44.6, Lowe 41.7, Mafi 32.3

The scores are based on things like penalties, missed blocks, QB pressures, sacks allowed, etc. The OL overall wasn't great in 2022, but there were several guys that played poor enough last year that the line was a serious issue when they were in the game. It's not a perfect assessment of how players did, but it's better than nothing . . . and likely better than the eye test where people will remember a few good plays but not be fully aware of some really bad ones. That holds true on defense, where people might remember a good tackle, a sack, or an interception . . . but not a missed tackle, a DPI penalty, or failing to set the age and a play that should have gone for no gain went for 50 yards.

Fair enough.
Logic would have me believe that White, Mapu, and Boutte, all will become "70+ starter level" players when they get more opportunities. In fact, I'd bet most of the guys on this list will.
... as compared to previous drafts where players are no longer on the team or even in the league after 3-4 seasons.

 

[Anarchy99]

Fair enough.
Logic would have me believe that White, Mapu, and Boutte, all will become "70+ starter level" players when they get more opportunities. In fact, I'd bet most of the guys on this list will.
... as compared to previous drafts where players are no longer on the team or even in the league after 3-4 seasons.

At this point no one knows how last year's class will turn out. Isn't Boutte potentially in hot water for placing almost 9,000 illegal bets? If we go back throughout all the Patriots drafts from the past 25 years, their best drafts ended up netting 3 valuable starters (with some of them turning into top producers at their position). Maybe last year turns into the best draft they've had in decades . . . but I suspect that is mostly wishful thinking at this point. We won't really know until we get there in a few years.

 

[kyoun1e]

Tom E. Curran has been banging the table on trading down (unlike Phil Perry, Giardi, etc).

Interesting data on QBs, draft position vs. super bowl success.

I continue to be torn on this debate.

Curran: Can a top-3 QB be the Patriots' savior? Don't count on it

Tom E. Curran did a deep dive on recent QB draft history, and what he found suggests the Patriots would be unwise to take a quarterback at No. 3 overall.

www.nbcsportsboston.com

 

[Anarchy99]

Tom E. Curran has been banging the table on trading down (unlike Phil Perry, Giardi, etc).

Interesting data on QBs, draft position vs. super bowl success.

I continue to be torn on this debate.

Curran: Can a top-3 QB be the Patriots' savior? Don't count on it

Tom E. Curran did a deep dive on recent QB draft history, and what he found suggests the Patriots would be unwise to take a quarterback at No. 3 overall.

www.nbcsportsboston.com

IMO, Curran mostly mucked this one up. He listed 7 QB that were taken in the Top 3 that went to the SB with their original teams. However, Alex Smith and Carson Wentz also went to the SB with their original teams and started most of the season for the 49ers and Eagles in their SB seasons. That brings the total to 9 QB.

Anyone care to guess how many other picks at all other positions went to the SB with their original teams in those 25 years? Raise your hand if you guessed 7: Julius Peppers, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Bush, Von Miller, Eric Fisher, Solomon Thomas, and Nick Bosa.

So sure, if the argument is that it's hard to make the SB on a team that was bad enough to have a Top 3 pick, that's mostly common sense. But teams that have taken QBs in the Top 3 have actually made it to the SB more than teams that haven't taken QBs. So IMO, Curran's research inadvertently advocates and promotes taking a QB early than it does selecting a player at another position. Although I do agree with him that it is likely in NE's best interest to trade down and accumulate more picks (unless they are so in love with a QB that is available to them that they think that guy is an absolute no brainer with HOF potential).

 

[Mitchie]

yep water is wet and draft picks are a crap shoot.

 

[Anarchy99]

Robert Kraft spoke today and mentioned that the Patriots lost out on Ridley because his girlfriend insisted that he stay in the south. Apparently, NE agreed to add whatever income tax he would have had to pay in Massachusetts to his contract. But the GF was not a fan of NE weather and would not have been able to get her Southern style cooking.

 

[kyoun1e]

Hype train for JJ McCarthy officially out of control. Now rumors he could go as high as #2.

All these comments on footwork based on his pro day. Did scouts not see this on the live tape? This is something new?

Would be shocking of both Maye and Daniels are sitting there at 3.

 

[Anarchy99]

I looked up hoe Top 5 drafted QBs performed relative to their draft class across all positions. I used Career AV score (yes, it is not the best metric in the world). The number listed is the rank for that draft class based on Career AV score to date.

2023: Young - T21, Stroud - 1, Richardson - T58
2021: Lawrence - T4, Wilson - T56, Lance - T130
2020: Burrow - T5, Tagovailoa - 8
2019: Murray - T1
2018: Mayfield - 8, Darnold - T60
2017: Trubisky - T32
2016: Goff - 3, Wentz - T10
2015: Winston - T6, Mariota - T11
2014: Bortles - 29
2012: Luck - T11, RG3 - T50
2011: Newton - 1
2010: Bradford - T36
2009: Stafford - 1, Sanchez - T48
2008: Ryan - 1
2007: Russell - T137
2006: Young - T66
2005: ASmith - 4
2004: Eli - 3, Rivers - 1
2003: Palmer - 2
2002: Carr - T30, Harrington - T61
2001: Vick - 7
1999: Couch - T52, McNabb - 3
1998: Peyton - 1, Leaf - T156

Some years, even if guys don't come close to meeting long-term expectations, those picks still could have done more than the rest of the draft class (see 2015 as an example). Winston and Mariota aren't even starters anymore, yet both are in the Top 11 from that draft class. Same with 2016 . . . Wentz is T10 and hasn't done very much recently.

 

[kyoun1e]

These guys are really good. On D. Maye:

Drake Maye - The Most Polarizing QB in the 2024 NFL Draft

Josh Norris and Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy continue their 2024 NFL Draft coverage with Drake Maye from North Carolina. What are Daniels' strengths, wea...

www.youtube.com

 

[kyoun1e]

oooof

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/patriots/eliot-wolf-pushing-hard-for-pats-to-draft-qb-j-j-mccarthy

 

[Mitchie]

oooof

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/patriots/eliot-wolf-pushing-hard-for-pats-to-draft-qb-j-j-mccarthy

do not believe it

 

[kyoun1e]

Very curious if NE is really exploring the trade market for a WR.

Especially after this Diggs trade. For a 2nd rounder.

I'd think their 2nd round pick at #34 would be key and I personally would rather give that up, pay the big money (which they have) for a proven commodity (although I do love L. McConkey...who isn't exactly a boundary WR though).

T. Higgins, Aiyuk. Bunch of others would will be free agents coming up too.

Then target OT/TE rounds 3-4.

Give Maye/Daniels/McCarthy a true #1 to work with.

Why not?

 

[Boston]

Very curious if NE is really exploring the trade market for a WR.

Especially after this Diggs trade. For a 2nd rounder.

I'd think their 2nd round pick at #34 would be key and I personally would rather give that up, pay the big money (which they have) for a proven commodity (although I do love L. McConkey...who isn't exactly a boundary WR though).

T. Higgins, Aiyuk. Bunch of others would will be free agents coming up too.

Then target OT/TE rounds 3-4.

Give Maye/Daniels/McCarthy a true #1 to work with.

Why not?

If they did make a deal like that, I would not be shocked because it is such an obvious need but after getting spurned by Ridley it feels like they are committed to the draft right now...I also feel like they are in no-man 's land for this offseason and I'm not sure someone like Aiyuk or Higgins would sign a contract that would 100% have to be part of any deal they would make...as for the draft they absolutely need to load up on the offensive-side of the ball...if this team is going to dig out of the mess BB left them in it has to nail this draft...get the franchise QB and some other quality pieces on offense to go with a solid D and you are now heading in the right direction and will have more appeal for free agents next offseason...this rebuild is not gonna happen overnight.

 

[Anarchy99]

Here are the personnel changes so far this offseason (as best as I can tell) . . .

Offensive Player Departures (or Players Not Re-signed):
Mac Jones, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Ezekiel Elliott, Trent Brown, Pharoah Brown, James Ferentz, Tre Nixon, Garrett Gilbert, Riley Reiff, Ty Montgomery

New Offensive Players:
Jacoby Brissett, Antonio Gibson, K.J. Osborn, Austin Hooper, Chukwuma Okorafor, Nick Leverett

Defensive Player Departures (or Players Not Re-signed):
Myles Bryant, J.C. Jackson, Adrian Phillips, Lawrence Guy, Mack Wilson, Jalen Mills, Matthew Slater, Cody Davis, Chris Board, Terez Hall, Christian Elliss

New Defensive Players:
Jaylinn Hawkins, Sione Takitaki, Armon Watts

Almost a month into free agency and that's all they have to show for it? Nearly $50 million in cap space left for this season still and gobs more in future seasons . . . and this is all they could do? Kyle Dugger apparently is not happy getting the transition tag and hasn't signed (and doesn't want to be with NE without a long-term deal). I didn't even mention the changes in the coaching staff . . . moving from the most experience coach in the league to a bunch of guys that haven't even called plays before.

For a team that only had 4 wins, I can't look at the changes they've made so far and conclude they got better . . . IMO, they've actually gone backwards. But, but, but . . . THE DRAFT! If they end up with three guys that become regular contributors, that would be a good draft. The new regime still needs to get the benefit of the doubt, but I can't say that I have been all that impressed with how things have gone. I would not expect the draft decision-makers to make significantly better picks than other front offices. Sure, they might do better than those terrible NE drafts over the past few seasons, but I don't expect them to hit on many picks . . . mostly because most teams whiff on the majority of their picks. They are looking pretty good for landing another Top 5 pick next year,

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Which of the below teams finish with a winning record?

Falcons Raheem Morris
Panthers Dave Canales
Raiders Antonio Pierce
Chargers Jim Harbaugh
Patriots Jerod Mayo
Seahawks Mike Macdonald
Titans Brian Callahan
Commanders Dan Quinn

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Which of the below teams finish with a winning record?

Falcons Raheem Morris
Panthers Dave Canales
Raiders Antonio Pierce
Chargers Jim Harbaugh
Patriots Jerod Mayo
Seahawks Mike Macdonald
Titans Brian Callahan
Commanders Dan Quinn

Falcons could win that division IMO. I think we're going to see what the talent there can actually do +1 decent QB and -1 Arthur Smith.

Only other team on that list I'd feel comfortable betting on a winning record is The Raiders... but I don't love it.

As a lifelong Pats fan it's back to the dark ages for us it looks like. I have no confidence in this line-up. Offseason moves have been anemic. Full rebuild mode with a shaky foundation... woof.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Which of the below teams finish with a winning record?

Falcons Raheem Morris
Panthers Dave Canales
Raiders Antonio Pierce
Chargers Jim Harbaugh
Patriots Jerod Mayo
Seahawks Mike Macdonald
Titans Brian Callahan
Commanders Dan Quinn

Falcons could win that division IMO. I think we're going to see what the talent there can actually do +1 decent QB and -1 Arthur Smith.

Only other team on that list I'd feel comfortable betting on a winning record is The Raiders... but I don't love it.

As a lifelong Pats fan it's back to the dark ages for us it looks like. I have no confidence in this line-up. Offseason moves have been anemic. Full rebuild mode with a shaky foundation... woof.

On the surface, I would be confident with Harbaugh and Macdonald, but the Chargers have traded away their skill players. Callahan could work out because the GM has really invested in new players. I put the over/under on these 8 coaches having a winning record at 2.5.

 

[ratbast]

Jonathan is way over his head.

 

[Boston]

Kyle Dugger agrees to four-year deal with Patriots

Dugger received the transition tag early in the offseason.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[Boston]

Jonathan is way over his head.

That really is the x-factor in all of this...is he ready to take the mantle as the day-to-day Owner...not to play the name game but he is from my era and I know quite a few guys who either went to school with him, know him socially or have done business with him...the consensus is he's a pretty nice guy but was definitely born on 3rd base but likes to pretend he wasn't and has that I'm the smartest guy in the room vibe...with a lineage of growing up in Brookline with the Belmont Hill-Williams-Harvard Business School resume (as well as a stint at Bain) I don't think that would surprise anyone who knows this area and those institutions...as for your point about being in over-his-head...right now it does appear the Pats were either unprepared for the post BB-era or totally underestimated how big the ditch was that BB drove them into...this is the part that really worries me...outside of the blind BB-crowd it was very obvious over a year ago that this roster on the offensive-side of the ball was an unmitigated disaster and quite frankly once he hired Matt Patricia as the OC two years ago it was a gigantic warning flag that this ship was becoming rudderless...due to that they had to know the BB era was coming to its conclusion and from all reports that decision became concrete in early November after the Colts game...yet since then it really does feel like they have been winging it...I do get the Mayo hire as they feel very strongly about him and they identified him as BB's successor...unfortunately it had to happen a year or two earlier than expected and the building of the coaching staff definitely looked like they were not as ready for the post-BB era as you would have hoped for...same with the Front Office...I am actually good with Wolf but I don't like this semi-interim thing...they should have either named him the GM right away or gone after someone like Peters...it may work out great but it just doesn't give off the look of competence the way they are doing it right now...as for free agency (like the building of the staff) I also think they under-estimated how much of a non-destination they currently are and will continue to be until they start showing signs of life...so that brings us to where we are today...on a positive note I do like the commitment to bringing back their own quality young players...that has to be one of the foundations of the future and on a sidenote as bad as things are can you imagine how bad it would be if they didn't sign a lot of these guys (frightening!)...now, if they are going to get back to relevancy it is gonna begin with this draft and IMO getting a QB that gives you hope...they have to nail that not just to enhance the roster but for us (and future potential free agents) to have confidence that the new regime knows what they are doing so we can trust them going forward because this is not going to be an easy process.

 

[ratbast]

Jonathan is way over his head.

That really is the x-factor in all of this...is he ready to take the mantle as the day-to-day Owner...not to play the name game but he is from my era and I know quite a few guys who either went to school with him, know him socially or have done business with him...the consensus is he's a pretty nice guy but was definitely born on 3rd base but likes to pretend he wasn't and has that I'm the smartest guy in the room vibe...with a lineage of growing up in Brookline with the Belmont Hill-Williams-Harvard Business School resume (as well as a stint at Bain) I don't think that would surprise anyone who knows this area and those institutions...as for your point about being in over-his-head...right now it does appear the Pats were either unprepared for the post BB-era or totally underestimated how big the ditch was that BB drove them into...this is the part that really worries me...outside of the blind BB-crowd it was very obvious over a year ago that this roster on the offensive-side of the ball was an unmitigated disaster and quite frankly once he hired Matt Patricia as the OC two years ago it was a gigantic warning flag that this ship was becoming rudderless...due to that they had to know the BB era was coming to its conclusion and from all reports that decision became concrete in early November after the Colts game...yet since then it really does feel like they have been winging it...I do get the Mayo hire as they feel very strongly about him and they identified him as BB's successor...unfortunately it had to happen a year or two earlier than expected and the building of the coaching staff definitely looked like they were not as ready for the post-BB era as you would have hoped for...same with the Front Office...I am actually good with Wolf but I don't like this semi-interim thing...they should have either named him the GM right away or gone after someone like Peters...it may work out great but it just doesn't give off the look of competence the way they are doing it right now...as for free agency (like the building of the staff) I also think they under-estimated how much of a non-destination they currently are and will continue to be until they start showing signs of life...so that brings us to where we are today...on a positive note I do like the commitment to bringing back their own quality young players...that has to be one of the foundations of the future and on a sidenote as bad as things are can you imagine how bad it would be if they didn't sign a lot of these guys (frightening!)...now, if they are going to get back to relevancy it is gonna begin with this draft and IMO getting a QB that gives you hope...they have to nail that not just to enhance the roster but for us (and future potential free agents) to have confidence that the new regime knows what they are doing so we can trust them going forward because this is not going to be an easy process.

I agree with everything you said, I also wonder how long Jonathan has been driving beyond Bill. Everything has been extremely unconventional. They took risks in FA a few years back and failed miserably. They overpaid for bad talent. Agolar, etc. Obviosly they are known for being cheap, that’s got to change, Kraft is top 10 richest in the league, they are not the Sullivans.
How much of all this unconventional approach to everything has been budget related. Not naming coordinators, hiring fired head coaches and the list goes on.
Of all the things that make me question Kraft, the fact that they didnt get A ratings for player facilities and conditions. They were a dynasty, they were big money. I find that simply, stupid.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Jonathan is way over his head.

with a lineage of growing up in Brookline with the Belmont Hill-Williams-Harvard Business School resume (as well as a stint at Bain)...

wait...are you Louis LItt?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Jonathan is way over his head.

Of all the things that make me question Kraft, the fact that they didnt get A ratings for player facilities and conditions. They were a dynasty, they were big money. I find that simply, stupid.

He's almost old enough to have lived through the depression, and his primary football influence is known for "just do your job" so it doesn't surprise me that he lacks the Pete Carroll / Doug Peterson "hey kids want to go out for ice cream?" mentality.

 

[Mitchie]

Jonathan is way over his head.

Of all the things that make me question Kraft, the fact that they didnt get A ratings for player facilities and conditions. They were a dynasty, they were big money. I find that simply, stupid.

He's almost old enough to have lived through the depression, and his primary football influence is known for "just do your job" so it doesn't surprise me that he lacks the Pete Carroll / Doug Peterson "hey kids want to go out for ice cream?" mentality.

I have heard he's a big fan of the Happy Ending Sundae however.

 

[ratbast]

Jonathan is way over his head.

Of all the things that make me question Kraft, the fact that they didnt get A ratings for player facilities and conditions. They were a dynasty, they were big money. I find that simply, stupid.

He's almost old enough to have lived through the depression, and his primary football influence is known for "just do your job" so it doesn't surprise me that he lacks the Pete Carroll / Doug Peterson "hey kids want to go out for ice cream?" mentality.

I think Bob is just a figurehead now.

 

[Anarchy99]

With Duggar signing an extension, running the numbers since the start of free agency, the Pats have invested $180-190M in contracts (with close to $100M guaranteed) in bringing back approximately a dozen guys they had around last year. We can debate whether those decisions and contracts were wise or unwise, but for now they've only spent $42M with $24M guaranteed on 9 new guys (most of them depth pieces). For now, the rebuild continues with hardly any new blood. For now, NE under 4.5 wins in 2024 looks like easy money.

H: BUF, MIA, NYJ, HOU, IND, LAR, SEA, LAC
A: BUF, MIA, NYJ, ARI, JAC, SFO, TEN, CHI, CIN

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

So unlike his predecessor we just give Mayo a pass for 4 wins this year?

 

[fruity pebbles]

Think I'd take the over on 4.5 wins. That's a good defense, Brisset is serviceable and they had a lot of close games.

 

[Anarchy99]

Think I'd take the over on 4.5 wins. That's a good defense, Brisset is serviceable and they had a lot of close games.

You are braver than I am. Some guys on the defensive side of the ball aren't there anymore, and BB isn't there to play the role of defensive evil genius (which is why they were in so many close games). Brissett has been serviceable with a decent line and actual weapons (which is not how I would currently describe NE's offense). I posted the schedule a couple of posts ago. Which teams are they beating to get to 5 wins? They have 11 games against teams that had winning records, and 2 more against a Jets team that should be better with real QBs. Their 4 other games are the Cards, Bears, Titans, and Chargers.