And a 4th round compensatory pick for losing him a year ago.
https://mobile.twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/status/1372366535252189189
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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter captain_amazing
- Start date
https://mobile.twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/status/1372366535252189189
Boston
Footballguy
Boy, that really got reported wrong...so right now they have:
1
2
3
4 x3
6 x2
7
Correct?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'm excited about this off season but tempering my enthusiasm with the idea that "all we need now is a quarterback and a running back and some help on the lines" is usually bad.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
All they need is the first one. The line is fine. The backs are fine. They just need a receiving back / one more guy for depth.
The media guys are really making for polar opposite opinions. NE is either clearly positioning to move up in the draft or clearly building the team around Cam Newton and riding with him. There really aren’t guys in the middle. There are a couple that think Jimmy G will be back, but at this point he would have to get cut or tear up his contract because they couldn’t fit him in under the cap.
@Anarchy99 can you remind me how much of Newton’s contract is guaranteed and how sure are you that he stays all of 2021 with the Patriots?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Basically, he has the contract of a backup QB with incentives should he be the starter. He's on the books for $5.4M. The rest is all incentive driven.
Here is the official version . . .
Cam Newton signed a 1 year, $5,100,000 contract with the New England Patriots, including a $2,000,000 signing bonus, $3,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $5,100,000. In 2021, Newton will earn a base salary of $1,500,000, a signing bonus of $2,000,000, a roster bonus of $1,323,525, a workout bonus of $100,000 and a incentive bonus of $500,000, while carrying a cap hit of $5,423,525 and a dead cap value of $5,500,000.
$3.5 million fully guaranteed (signing bonus + $1.5 million 2021 salary)
Offsets available on base salary
Per Game Active Bonus: $88,235 ($1.3M, 15 LTBE)
$8.5 million Incentives available for playoffs, Pro Bowl, All-Pro, MVP, Super Bowl MVP, etc.
Play Time Incentives
60%, $500,000 (LTBE)
90%, $1M
Playoff Incentives
$500,000 each for
60% regular season snaps + a playoff berth
70% regular season snaps + a playoff berth
80% regular season snaps + a playoff berth
90% regular season snaps + a playoff berth
$500,000 for each playoff win (50% snaps), max $1.5M
Super Bowl Win (50% snaps): $1.5M
Super Bowl MVP: $1M
Pro Bowl (original ballot): $500,000
All-Pro: $500,000
$100k workout bonus
bostonfred
Footballguy
I really think they need a bigger back. It doesn't have to be the highest priced guy in free agency or even a starter but it would be nice to be able to use those two tight ends they just paid 87.5 million.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As for the second part, why would NE not want him for the entire season? If he's starting and playing well they would keep him. If they draft a rookie and he is there as a mentor they would keep him. If he gives way to another QB and sits he won't really have a trade market.
The only scenario I see him leaving is if they end up with Garoppolo, and Cam has no interest in hanging around with no chance to start. Then maybe they find a way to move on and he gets his $2 million signing bonus as a parting gift.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Harris (5.0 ypc) and Michel (5.7 ypc) did fine running the ball last season. Assuming White moves on and Burkhead does not return, their two backs that caught passes would be out of the picture. I would say they need a third down back more than they need a power back, as adding a big back would give them three guys to run the ball that probably wouldn't be used on 3rd down.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since most of his recent earnings have been through bonuses, they won't gain much cap space back. If they designate him as a post 6/1 retirement, IIRC, they will only net $750,000 in cap savings this season (and will also have to carry $3.6M in dead cap money next year).
Boston
Footballguy
Definitely need a versatile RB that can both run and catch...what I don't like about the Harris/Michel combo is they have both been limited in their use of the passing game so the D doesn't have to worry as much about them as they should...I would have zero issues if they got rid of Michel and brought in two RBs to go with Harris.
Just curious if it was remotely possible they were still looking elsewhere, draft or Darnold or Jimmy G. I don’t see Newton as a mentor at all and wondered if he could be cut either after continued poor performance or another addition? I like a lot of what they have done, but just have no confidence in Newton.
Boston
Footballguy
I think everything is on the table...as of now the two paths that seem to make the most sense are the draft and Jimmy G and he can only happen if San Fran moves on to another QB...I can not see the Jets dealing Darnold to the Pats...Mariotta is still an option and gotta believe the Jags would deal Minshew with Lawrence coming onboard...those may only be short-term fixes but I think both would be an upgrade over Newton.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I doubt they move on from Michel this year while he is still on his rookie contract. He's another one that would not get back much cap relief by releasing him, his trade value is probably minimal, so having him around this year likely makes the most sense. But they won't use the 5th year rookie option and I agree I doubt they have any interest in retaining him next season.
As for Harris and Michel, I tend to agree with you but I also wonder if they CAN'T be used more as receiving threats or if McDaniels just hasn't utilized them that way (meaning they could be used on passing situations more). I would guess they draft someone similar to White or Vereen. They seem to always poke around the discount veteran RB bin, so that may be another place they get a cheap depth piece for this year.
Boston
Footballguy
I don't think they move on from Michel either but as I said I would rather break-up that duo and have the backfield be more diverse...Michael Carter is someone who could be a nice fit for this backfield...JJ Taylor is still around and could play a minor role in this as well.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I heard this morning that NE contacted every team that there was any possible chance of prying away their starting QB to see what it would take. If we want to believe what was reported, SF told them they are not moving on from Garoppolo and therefore he was not and would not be available. I don't see how the Jets would do anything that would make the Patriots better, so that idea is a non-starter as far as I am concerned.
Which brings us back to what their plan is for Newton. Now that they have a much better base of talent, I can see them playing Newton this year either to develop a QB or with plans to replace Newton next season. But the problem is, will any established QBs be available next year (not sure but I am guessing probably not) and how is next year's crop of rookies (I thought I heard this class is way better than the 2022 class)? Plus, if the team is better (which it should be), they will again be in no man's land for draft purposes (not a good enough pick to take one of the top QB prospects).
Some people have speculated that BB is preparing a Godfather offer to move up in the draft. I don't know what that means, I don't know how high they would try to move up, I don't know what that package would entail, and I have no idea who they would try to target. That being said, the way they are using their cap dollars seems to indicate they are expecting to have a low dollar salary cap hit at QB for the next few years (meaning they likely won't be able to fit someone like Garoppolo under the cap at his present salary).
I have also seen a couple of people speculate that they will draft BPA in the first round (or trade back) and then take Trask in the second round. In that scenario, they get a QB without mortgaging a ton of draft picks and actually would gain an extra pick or two in the process (because we all know BB likes his draft picks to move around the draft board or waste picks on kickers).
I would love to see either Minshew (played at local high school here) or Mariota under BB. I can hope for this.
Boston
Footballguy
While it is a long shot the other thing I like about those two is they could flourish under BB and be a long term answer...again, that is far from a definite but IMO there is zero possibility for that outcome with Cam.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
From what I have heard, Mariota is refusing to renegotiate his deal that would pay him $10.7M. The Raiders could release him without any salary cap hit at all. I believe they had some inquiries, but teams wanted him to agree to a low dollar deal as a backup with tons of incentives (and he's not interested). Minshew is worth it just for his contract (2 years remaining for a total of $1.8M). I doubt either one would be more than a bridge QB, but both would be better options than Newton. However, NE seems to have hitched their wagon to Cam, so I doubt NE would be in on these two guys. That being said, they have gone off script the past few days . . . and I mean WAY off script.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Interesting chart from PFF HERE.
Most improved teams using a Wins Above Replacement calculation. WFT and NE both right around 7 wins.
Here's roughly what the chart shows so far in free agency:
+7: WAS, NE
+4: NYJ
+3.5: JAC
+3: ARI
+2: CHI
+1: DEN, LAR, MIN, CLE, MIA, KC
0: BAL, OAK, BUF
-1: TB, SEA, TEN, ATL, SF
-2: NYG, CIN, PIT, GB, DAL, HOU
-3: CAR, LAC
-4: IND, PHI
-6 (or worse): NOS, DET
Most improved teams using a Wins Above Replacement calculation. WFT and NE both right around 7 wins.
Here's roughly what the chart shows so far in free agency:
+7: WAS, NE
+4: NYJ
+3.5: JAC
+3: ARI
+2: CHI
+1: DEN, LAR, MIN, CLE, MIA, KC
0: BAL, OAK, BUF
-1: TB, SEA, TEN, ATL, SF
-2: NYG, CIN, PIT, GB, DAL, HOU
-3: CAR, LAC
-4: IND, PHI
-6 (or worse): NOS, DET
Evidently they are according to this guy...
https://twitter.com/allbrightnfl/status/1372613994872238085?s=21
https://twitter.com/allbrightnfl/status/1372613994872238085?s=21
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If he gets released (which is the most likely outcome at this stage), then his contract is irrelevant. There are no starting gigs left, no one is going to pay him $10M+ as a backup, and he’s not going to accept a $3M contract from the Raiders. So he will have to start over somewhere with a new contract.
Here is a good view of the depth chart... https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/03/18/heres-how-patriots-depth-chart-is-shaping-up-after-insanely-busy-start-to-free-agency/
Boston
Footballguy
Excellent news...the O line should be a real plus this year...the Karras signing means this line is deep as well.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
While discussing all the recent NE moves, Tom Curran was asked which player would have the greatest impact. He left jaws dropped with he said Nelson Agholor, who he thinks is the perfect fit with what they are doing and will have 75/1200/11 this season. He explained so much attention from defenses will go to stopping the run and the TEs that Agholor will get behind defenders in space and will be off to the races. I’ll believe it when I see it, but that brings the total of people who like the Agholor signing up to one.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I like Agholor. He's got good speed and does lots of things pretty well. They needed a veteran and a good locker room guy who can fit in on a new team and push the other receivers. They needed an upgrade at the position and they got it.Anarchy99 said:
If they'd passed on other good free agents for him, I'd have hated it. Knowing that they didn't, I like the signing more. I think he can be a David Patten level player or maybe a little bit more, as long as they'reactually throwing the ball this year. Not excited for fantasy but solid production for reality.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I heard a discussion on the radio where they were thinking out loud about some projections for the offense (assuming Cam would be the QB all year since that is the only option to discuss right now). They said the moves on offense would get him to 30 combined TD (last year he had 20). They also figured the goal was to distribute the ball in the passing game, so they allocated the 2 TEs and the 3 WR (Agholor, Bourne, Meyers) each with 600 receiving yards. Add in the leftovers (RBs / other WRs and TEs) and they felt Cam could get to 3,800 passing yards without having a go to, standout receiving threat. (They assumed Harry was gone and Edelman wouldn't be available). That would be a bump of almost 1,200 passing yards and 10 total TD from Cam. That seems a little aggressive to me . . . as I don't think Cam has enough in his game to be a starting QB anymore.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
I love Agholor as a stand-up guy (who doesn't after his handling of "Unlike Agholor"?) and think his game is better than most give credit for, but no way in hell is he a 1200 yard receiver. He'd have to be in a KC style offense to sniff that type of production. His best year, when PHI was deploying him out of the slot, was 62 / 768 / 8TD on 95 targets. Wentz had 440 attempts and 3296 yards. Cam would have to make a big jump in attempts from his 368 last year or be feeding Agholor like crazy to get anywhere close. Looks like a classic Catch-22 to my eyes. If he's outside stretching the field, he may not get 75 targets, let alone 75 receptions. If he's in the slot where he'll get fed, there's nobody stretching the field and the offense has no real passing threat so the box is stacked like it was last year.
I agree with the notion that adding him is clearly an upgrade to the WR core. I also agree the price seems steep but that's not relevant if:
A) He proves to be an upgrade and stretches the field &
B) His contract & roster spot don't interfere with acquiring/drafting a true #1 WR.
I agree with the notion that adding him is clearly an upgrade to the WR core. I also agree the price seems steep but that's not relevant if:
A) He proves to be an upgrade and stretches the field &
B) His contract & roster spot don't interfere with acquiring/drafting a true #1 WR.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Yeah, there is no good way to have NE have a ton of passing yards AND rushing yards at the same time. In 2019, they had 620 passes and 447 rushes. Last year, that went the other way . . . to 440 passes and 502 rushes. So they ran 125 fewer plays and the rate of passes dipped from 58% to 46%. Back in the 2 TE set days with Gronk and Hernandez, when they played at a much faster pace, they maxed out at 1164 plays in 2012 (essentially 220-225 fewer plays than in 2020). But that team scored 557 points (they were scored 326 last year). If they stick entirely with Cam again, they will probably be a little bit better, but I doubt they make huge strides.
Boston
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
After last year, people should not be allowed to bring up his 45 TD, 15-1, MVP season from 2015 ever again. There's as much chance of that happening as Brady coming back to NE.