There definitely is a wide range of opinions on NE this upcoming year. Some sports books have NE at 70-1 to win the SB . . . their worst odds in 30 years. That ranks them 29th in the league, trailing only ATL, IND, and ARI. Yes, Vegas things the Bears and Panthers have a better shot at a title this season.
However, listening to a discussion on TV the other night, Tom Curran said BOB himself was worth 3 wins and NE would win 11 games and make the playoffs. Ceiling of 13 wins, floor of 9 wins. Michael Holley thought 13 wasn't going to happen but 11 was reasonable. Felger was not impressed and felt they were still an 8 win team.
Those guys are delusional (and I love Curran)...BOB is a big upgrade but I laugh at the fact he has suddenly become Bill Walsh or Don Coryell...with the upgrades in the division and what looks to be a tough out-of-division schedule I think that unless some other big moves come Vegas is dead-on and they will have anywhere between 5-8 wins.
I think they are trapped in an 8-10 win loop. They had 8 wins last year, but GB, MIN, LV, and CIN had weird plays near the end that kept them out of the playoffs. I wouldn't change my opinion of them (one click above average), but they could have had 10-11 wins last year and the narrative might be different. They wouldn't be a better team, but lots of folks look at making the playoffs as a drop dead cut off for them.
Their biggest issue is other teams in the division / conference are way more talented than they used to be and have legit QBs . . . that hardly happened in the Brady era. There are a lot fewer doormats than their used to be. I still think they will add a couple other pieces via free agency / trade / the draft and they will be competitive in most games. Last year they just made way too many idiodic mistakes. I am pretty sure BB looks at how things played out and thinks they aren't that far away from being a competitive team. I think they are a lot farther away than he does.
I think they will be competitive because BB is the HC but talent-wise they are in the bottom 1/3 of the AFC and with a few injuries (Judon, Stevenson for example) they could really take a step backwards...I just look at that schedule and don't see a ton of upside...BB the GM is still trying to build a team as if Brady is the QB and a few special teams plays will the difference...that formula is not working anymore and unfortunately it appears he is not going to change which is why they are stuck in neutral...would love to get a new GM and keep BB as the HC but that aint happening.
Part of the problem is we as fans have to imagine how things could work (vs. them already working the past couple of years). Looking at position groupings . . .
QB: They are more than likely sticking with Mac, at least through his rookie contract. He didn't impress me much last year, even if a lot of it wasn't his fault. Compared to other AFC foes, this spot is a liability.
RB: Stevenson is emerging as one of the better backs in the league, Strong flashed last year, the remaining Harris was decent, I think Robinson before he got hurt was a nice surprise for JAC, and Ty Montgomery is said to be healthy. IMO, one of the better RB groups in the league.
WR: TBA-Parker-JJSS-Thornton-Bourne-Jones. Depending on who they add, they could have a decent batch here but if they don't add anyone good it will be recycled toilet water.
TE: Henry and Gesicki aren't a bad tandem and they will probably draft another in a deep TE draft. The last couple of years TE was an after thought. Hopefully BOB goes back to using the TEs more. I'd say this group will end up being a plus . . . but not by a ton.
OL: The OL early on last year was a disaster. It improved as the year went on, but it was too inconsistent and took too many penalties. They brought in depth pieces but I sure hope they don't have to play them. They should be targeting an early OT and someone else in the mid to late rounds. Average group here.
DL: NE got a lot more pressure and sacks last year than they usually do. They allow too many rushing yards to teams that like to run. Hard to breakdown what's the edge vs. what the backers are doing. Pass rush is above average to good. Run stopping is only ok.
LB: They need more talent here. Judon and Uche are solid rushers but not great tacklers or in coverage. One long-term injury and this unit would a total liability. Not sure where help would come from. At least they got away from slow footed, oversized bangers. The league is a lot faster, so smaller and quicker is more valuable. Grade: Incomplete.
CB: They will likely invest in the draft. Mills probably getting moved to safety. The pass defense numbers last year were decent, but I don't have faith the guys they roll out there can do well for 60 minutes against the Allen's, Mahomes, or Burrow's of the world. Probably paper tigers, but they still are probably above average.
S: I think they can move some guys around to overcome losing DMC, but they will have depth issues. I would not run out and draft a safety early. They should be able to coach up a couple of people to prevent big plays. At least, one would hope. Probably average to above average.
ST: Folk is accurate but ancient. Punter was a disaster. Kick coverage was not great. Blocking on kicks was a concern. They had the #32 ranked ST unit last year. With the amount the BB pays some of these guys, if they aren't at the top of the league, it isn't worth it. F- for a grade.
Coaching Staff: IMO, they should not be earning praise for moving on from the abomination and toxic experiment on offense last year. BOB is an upgrade, but that gets the offensive play calling up to average, Congrats. Maybe BOB can scheme up some better plays, maybe the pieces fit and are used better, maybe they bring in a couple of pieces before the seasons starts. But they are trying to have production that exceeds the sum of their parts.
Overall, I think they have some young guys with upside . . . but they don't have nearly enough veterans that anyone really worries about. As some DC's mentioned last year, no one on the Patriots scared them. If they can manage to get RS, Thornton, Jones, Bourne, and Strong in space, then they could get some chunk plays. The player not yet on the roster could help too, but when we are discussing a guy not even on the roster as a difference maker, you know you don't have nearly enough to work with.
