Dynasty
Footballguy
"The deal can max out at $14.5M next season, a source tells ESPN's Jeremy Fowler."
Signing Robinson cheap and short term would have been good for the Patriots simply to add a little depth.
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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter captain_amazing
- Start date
"The deal can max out at $14.5M next season, a source tells ESPN's Jeremy Fowler."
Signing Robinson cheap and short term would have been good for the Patriots simply to add a little depth.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Stefon Diggs in Foxboro for a free agency visit.
Ya gotta figure his age and overcoming injury has brought some negativity to his free agency. Never know how all that goes behind the scenes
Trent Brown signed by Houston.
Not that we should be interested, but HOU seems to be signing quite a few Olineman in the hope that some stick. A strategy I wish NE would take especially at this point in FA. What do you have to lose? For a couple mil, if it doesn't work out, cut 'em.
Not that we should be interested, but HOU seems to be signing quite a few Olineman in the hope that some stick. A strategy I wish NE would take especially at this point in FA. What do you have to lose? For a couple mil, if it doesn't work out, cut 'em.
Just not seeing that happening, think Ward Hunter and Carter are locked in as top 3.
Boston
Footballguy
I don't know how you can say they are locked in...Tenn-Clev-NYG all are desperate for QBs and history tells us teams in that situation do desperate things...now that doesn't mean Hunter and Carter aren't better prospects but the NFL is a QB first league and neither of those two (Hunter and Carter) are gonna save an HC or GM's job that is on the hot seat...I think it is very easy to see a scenario where one of them is there at #4...the funny part is the best thing for the Pats maybe if Hunter and Carter do go before they pick and someone trades up to #4 to draft a QB.
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Winston to the NYGs.
Think the odds increasing NYGs take S. Sanders at 3. There's no way they are not leaving the first round with a QB.
Think the odds are also increasing Hunter or Carter do fall to 4.
rockaction
Footballguy
You guys should really be hoping that the Steelers sign Rodgers and that Russell Wilson goes to the Browns. That way the Giants will likely be taking a QB at three and either Hunter or Carter fall. Looks more that way every day. You do not want McMillan at four, IMO. That forty time he supposedly ran at his pro day is being massively disputed by guys that are pretty respected in the media from their team sources. As a matter of fact, trading out of four would be the best thing for you guys. Maybe pick up an extra first or something like that.
ratbast
Footballguy
I just feel it’s Hunter or trade down. They need two starting offensive players in this draft. (OL/WR) Carter/Sanders could bring great trade down options.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Unless they land Hunter, IMO, I am not even sure there are other WRs or OTs worth burning picks on. Drafting for need in a draft week at the top in those spots doesn't seem like the best move to me. The one OL guy I like is Membou, but even he doesn't scream can't miss. He seems like he would be a decent starter . . . and I am not sure you trade down to just to pick a decent starter. By the time NE gets to their second pick, I think the batch of receivers available will all be underwhelming and similar to what would be available in Round 3. I don't see a lot of guys that are NFL ready . . . I see a lot of works in progress that might be able to turn into something eventually with coaching and development. The one thing we know about NE is that WR development IS NOT their strong suit. I would be much more in favor of trading a pick for an established WR.
rockaction
Footballguy
Interesting development that maybe only I care about because of IDP. Christian Elliss's cap hit with the Raiders is reported to somewhere around 4.82 million dollars, so his tender was about 4.82 million. New England had tendered him at the 3.26 million dollar range, and will not get any draft compensation if they lose Elliss. It's a bit of a turnabout: New England signed Robert Spillane from the Raiders for a decent chunk of change (3 at 37?) and the Raiders might have gotten younger and quicker for cheaper than Spillane came to the Patriots.
I personally hope he sticks with the Raiders and starts for them. Should be on the field a lot and get plenty of tackles even though he might be more of the coverage linebacker of the Elandon Roberts/Elliss duo.
But 4.8 million dollars is a lot for Elliss, who was undrafted coming into the league.
eta* Anarchy99 has Spillane at 3 for $33M, not $37M. A quick Google search shows $37.5M, with $20.5M or so guaranteed. Regardless, that's still a bunch more than Elliss, and Anarchy's point stands about preferring one to the other.
I personally hope he sticks with the Raiders and starts for them. Should be on the field a lot and get plenty of tackles even though he might be more of the coverage linebacker of the Elandon Roberts/Elliss duo.
But 4.8 million dollars is a lot for Elliss, who was undrafted coming into the league.
eta* Anarchy99 has Spillane at 3 for $33M, not $37M. A quick Google search shows $37.5M, with $20.5M or so guaranteed. Regardless, that's still a bunch more than Elliss, and Anarchy's point stands about preferring one to the other.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I would have preferred if NE just stuck with Elliss. He was their highest graded LB by PFF last year (41st). By comparison, Spillane was ranked 66th (and will cost NE $33M over 3 years).
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Pats matched and Elliss is staying. Great news, I like him.
Boston
Footballguy
Looks like there will be a new kicker this year:
Anarchy99
Footballguy
How many ex-Pats can go kick for the Titans? This is at least the third one (Polk and Gostkowski) in the past 5 or so years.Looks like there will be a new kicker this year:
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Four if you count Matthew Wright (brief spell on the Pats practice squad in 2023)How many ex-Pats can go kick for the Titans? This is at least the third one (Polk and Gostkowski) in the past 5 or so years.Looks like there will be a new kicker this year:
Interesting phrasing on Sirius- after what the Titans had at QB....and Vrabel is willing to trade Milton?
As a Volunteer, the Titans saw a lot of him and surely heard whatever else.
I just found it interesting is all.
Could throw in the Browns QB struggles I guess.
As a Volunteer, the Titans saw a lot of him and surely heard whatever else.
I just found it interesting is all.
Could throw in the Browns QB struggles I guess.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I didn't actually hear what Wolf had to say recently, but he's either drinking the company Kool-Aid, is certifiably insane, or is absolutely clueless (I suppose "all of the above" is in play here as well). They were discussing his comments on the radio, and it sounded like he was asked about the team's direction at this point in free agency and what the plan was to fix the offense heading into the draft. Someone asked him specifically about what the plan was to address WR and OT, and Wolf mentioned they already have a lot of young talent from recent drafts on the roster. Another reporter asked how Wolf viewed their recent draft history, and he pointed out they drafted some really good players . . . 4 or 5 deep at receivers and linemen from the last few drafts. He apparently doubled down by saying that the new coaching staff will be able to coach up guys from recent drafts to reach their potential that caused them to draft them in the first place. Basically, he refused to acknowledge that most of their recent picks had been disappointing so far, and he essentially threw multiple prior coaches under the bus. I'm guessing he is just trying to put on a happy face, but if they really think they drafted a bunch of future All Pros, we're in for a long season.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's awful. Do they really go on the air and think anybody believes the **** they're selling? Oof. At least the Jets have been firing the guys responsible for the messes except for the guy that won't fire himself as owner. Sounds like the NEP fired guys down the chain instead of the front office and that's a problem that won't be solved until Robert and Jonathan Kraft step in and fire those guys and hire the right ones. Man, the NEP front office has been just bad for a decent amount of time now. A roster bereft of homegrown talent, it seems.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There's been whispers, rumors, and innuendo that Wolf and some of his cronies will be jettisoned after the completion of the draft. The logic behind keeping them around through the draft is that Vrabel hasn't had time to put together a scouting and talent evaluation team with enough time to research the incoming class, while the existing front office has been assessing players for months. One can only hope they tell Wolf, et al, to not let the door hit them on the way out closer to the start of training camp.
Boston
Footballguy
They have a ton of cap space...they are not good...and they don't have many players they need to worry about extending to big $ outside of Gonzalez and Maye...they need to overpay until thy become a contender again.
Good signing...if they can add another legit WR in the draft that will be a big step forward for this offense (obviously O-line has to be addressed)...Wilson just signed with the Giants...now that they have signed him and Winston it makes you wonder if they are passing on Sanders...would be great if that happens and the Pats can trade down...gonna be real interesting to see what eventually happens with that 1.4.
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Boston
Footballguy
Why? They have the $ and there aren't many options...it is almost impossible for them to have cap issues for the duration of this contract...this along with the other signings are showing other players they are serious about improving and the penny-pinching days are over.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Trading down probably isn’t the best outcome. Hunter would be the best option followed by Carter. At that point, sure trading down would be a better option, but that depends what they get for assets and who they end up taking. IMO, having an elite player is better than have two prospects that might turn into something.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The Bills and Texans moved on from him, he was already thought to have started losing a step, and he’s coming off a serious injury. I agree they have to spend money somewhere. I just think he will not age gracefully. WRs in their 30s are not great investments.
I think the NYGs are just making sure they are covered at the position. Still think they could take Sanders.
Hunter or Carter. If either available, take them.
Could see a trade down and they'd be able to get either W. Campbell or A. Membour.
Honestly, if we're talking about taking the best available player, if Hunter/Carter are both gone I'm starting to warm up to A. Jeanty. Just heard some ridiculous stat that he had more yards AFTER CONTACT than anyone else did in total. That's ridiculous.
Would be pretty cool to have Drake and Jeanty in the fold. Sorry Rhamandre.
https://x.com/ezlazar
https://x.com/ezlazar
@ezlazar
Stefon Diggs finished second in ESPN’s receiver score metric last season, only behind A.J. Brown. Still got open and caught everything. He was on-pace for 100 catches for 1,054 yards.I wouldn’t overthink this one in terms of his fit on the #Patriots.
https://x.com/ezlazar
@ezlazar
Stefon Diggs finished second in ESPN’s receiver score metric last season, only behind A.J. Brown. Still got open and caught everything. He was on-pace for 100 catches for 1,054 yards.I wouldn’t overthink this one in terms of his fit on the #Patriots.
Boston
Footballguy
I don't really disagree with this but this is the hand the Vrabel era has been given due to years of roster mismanagement...if they get two solid years from him and helps Maye develop it is a smart investment...if they had an iffy cap situation it would be a totally different story...but they don't.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I agree that they are trying to play no limit hold em without any face cards. They are in a bad place and had to do something. Old guys coming off of ACL injuries are usually not as good when they first come back. Ask Kendrick Bourne. Maybe Diggs is a quick healer.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I can only imagine Diggs and Hollins in the same WR room. Ultra intense and …… not 
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I mean I’d rather give Diggs 23 mil a year than Metcalf 33 mil a year and our 2nd round pick on top.
I expected the Diggs signing to be universally hated. A quick scan across the usual suspect websites says the complete opposite. Surprised.
Without knowing the details of the contract, I'd give this signing a C+ at best. Just to much unknown about Diggs and his injury recovery -- which I just don't believe he'll be ready by week 1 -- age, left in the tank.
Hoping there's a lot of fluff in this contract and an out after 1 year if things don't work out.
Without knowing the details of the contract, I'd give this signing a C+ at best. Just to much unknown about Diggs and his injury recovery -- which I just don't believe he'll be ready by week 1 -- age, left in the tank.
Hoping there's a lot of fluff in this contract and an out after 1 year if things don't work out.
Boston
Footballguy
The question for those who don't like it was what is your plan B...they offered Godwin a blank check and appear to have been sniffing around the other big names outside of DKM who it appears they didn't have much interest in...unfortunately between a thin FA class, the fact the Pats are currently not a destination for many veterans and no lay-up WR rookie to select at 1.4 they had to make a move like this...given the landscape of this offseason and their cap situation I am totally fine with this move...hopefully they add another solid veteran and/or use a high pick on a WR so Maye will have an upgraded WR unit to help his development.
rockaction
Footballguy
I've seen worse signings than the Diggs signing, but menobrown put it well in the other thread when he said not to go shopping while you're incredibly hungry. (Well, he said starving, but that's a little drastic.)
This has that sort of desperate feel to it. I wonder if it will work out. I'm not sure which is worse these days, playing for Woody Johnson or a receiver being courted to go out into the middle of nowhere in Massachusetts to play for the Krafts. I mean, talk about unappealing.
Two franchises held back by the region, the weather, their stadiums, the taxation, and in one case (the Jets), ownership. Diggs was all the Patriots were realistically going to get. They really have to hope Hunter falls to them and that he's okay with being made into a receiver exclusively.
This has that sort of desperate feel to it. I wonder if it will work out. I'm not sure which is worse these days, playing for Woody Johnson or a receiver being courted to go out into the middle of nowhere in Massachusetts to play for the Krafts. I mean, talk about unappealing.
Two franchises held back by the region, the weather, their stadiums, the taxation, and in one case (the Jets), ownership. Diggs was all the Patriots were realistically going to get. They really have to hope Hunter falls to them and that he's okay with being made into a receiver exclusively.
Boston
Footballguy
You are missing one other big thing...winning...once you win everything is different...10 years ago good players would come to the Pats on a team-friendly deal...no they are having issues getting players while overpaying...start winning and become a contender and a lot of the other issues don't become as important.
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh sure. I include it the other threads when I talk about the problems of recruiting a top-flight WR to Foxboro. But you know what? I honestly think now that Belichick and Brady are gone there are no more discounts for the Patriots unless they become borderline dynastic again. Cold, outdoors, middle of nowhere, high-tax, no HoF guys coaching or playing QB, and no winning.
All of that makes it brutal to attract guys. Kind of like the Celtics were having trouble attracting guys at one point in time even with their storied history. Anyway, I thought Diggs looked good last year, but I've heard a lot of media commenters talking about how he wasn't really winning deep anymore or something like that, which will be exacerbated by the injury most likely. Who knows? Maybe that's all crap and he's still beating guys downfield. I don't know.
rockaction
Footballguy
By the way, I have a subscription to Reception Perception and Matt Harmon has finished charting Diggs for 2024. Some takeaways:
"Diggs took 45.4% of his sampled snaps from the slot, which was his highest rate since his second season of 56.4%. That number was even higher earlier in the season before Collins went down with an injury. Diggs had not played in the slot on more than 32% of his sampled snaps in any season from 2017 to 2023. That was a big change for the veteran receiver but made some sense given his route-running chops and separation skills.
As mentioned earlier, Diggs’ success rates dipped in 2023 from the elite area he operated in from 2020 to 2022 but at 73.4% success rate vs. man, 80.3% vs. zone and 74.6% vs. press, we’re still talking about a quality starting receiver. Diggs’ success rates all dropped a bit further in 2024 with the Texans but are still in that same range of quality starting receivers.
At 71.6% success rate vs. man and 71.4% vs. press, I still have a good bit of faith that Diggs can operate in a role that includes more perimeter duties. This idea of him as a slot-heavy player with the 2024 Texans was a nice concept given the other guys in the room and his overall savvy approach to the position but he doesn’t have to live inside. In fact, given some of his short-comings as a blocker, what you lose in the run game might not be worth the results in the passing game on a near 50% slot role. The general rule with Reception Perception is that if you’re north of 70% success rate vs. man and/or press, we’re generally interested in you as an outside receiver. Diggs still checked that box last season.
The biggest dropoff for Diggs in 2024 was similar to what we saw in his 2023 profile. The deep route success rates just aren’t what they used to be. He did well running some deep corner routes from the slot but when asked to try and stack corners on go routes outside, the lack of juice really shows up."
"Even if his game has declined, he was the best player on film last season outside of Davante Adams among the aging veteran receiver cohort available in free agency or via trade. Troubling medicals would explain why others were prioritized over Diggs, which is perfectly reasonable.
Here we arrive at what is always the concern with aging receivers amid the curves and cliffs of this position. Based on Diggs’ 2024 Reception Perception profile, the guy outlined above looks like someone who can still contribute as a strong secondary option in a healthy NFL passing game in multiple positions. However, we have no idea what the next step looks like as we wander further down the ridge. The fact that he’s currently rehabbing a torn ACL probably increases the odds that the answer isn’t pretty. I’ll still hold out hope Diggs has another solid act left in him based on his long-standing history and decent returns on his 2024 Reception Perception profile but we have to understand the obvious downside risk." - Matt Harmon, Reception Perception
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Diggs may have lost a step, but as long as he can get open in the short to intermediate area it provides a reliable target for Maye, which will be crucial for his development. I don’t mind the cost of investing in your (hopefully) franchise quarterback.
Boston
Footballguy
This nails it...anyone being realistic knows they aren't getting Diggs in his prime...what they are getting is a professional NFL WR who upgrades a very bad unit and aids Maye in his development for the next couple of years as well as hopefully showing their young WRs how to play the game because that sure as hell wasn't happening last year.
Boston
Footballguy
Philly checks a decent amount of those boxes as well...but when you are well run and winning that stuff will be overcome.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Based on what I have heard on sports radio, a lot of people are drinking the Kool-Aid on what NE has been doing. Last night, the radio hosts / analysts called Vrabel a Top 5-6 coach in the league and called the blend of front office and guys on the coaching staff essentially one of the best groups in the league. So, I decided to explore how these guys have done over the last 3 NFL seasons in their roles and how those teams fared . . .
Mike Vrabel, head coach: 16-35 record (TEN, TEN, CLE)
Eliot Wolf, EVP of player personnel: 16-25 (NE, NE, NE)
Ryan Cowden, VP of player personnel: 16-35 (TEN, NYG, NYG)
Matt Groh, director of player personnel: 16-35 (NE, NE, NE)
Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator: 14-23 (LV, LV, N/A)
Ashton Grant, QB coach: 21-30 (CLE, CLE, CLE)
Tony Dews, RB coach: 18-33 (TEN, TEN, NYJ)
Todd Dowling, WR coach: 19-32 (TEN, NYJ, NYJ)
Thomas Brown, TE coach: 12-39 (LAR, CAR, CHI)
Doug Marrone, OL coach: 16-18 (NOS, NOS, N/A)
Jason Houghtaling, assistant OL coach: 18-33 (TEN, TEN, CHI)
Robert Kugler, assistant OL coach: 13-38 (CAR, CAR, NE)
Terell Williams, defensive coordinator: 28-23 (TEN, TEN, DET)
Clint McMillan, defensive line coach: 16-35 (TEN, TEN, TEN)
Mike Smith, OLB coach: 20-14 (MIN, MIN, N/A)
Zak Kuhr, ILB coach: 16-35 (TEN, TEN, NYG)
Justin Hamilton, CB coach: 14-20 (N/A, TEN, IND)
Scott Booker, S coach: 26-25 (TEN, TEN, BUF)
Ben McAdoo, senior defensive assistant: 11-23 (CAR, N/A, NE)
Jeremy Springer, special teams coordinator: 19-34 (LAR, LAR, NE)
Tom Quinn, assistant special teams coach: 10-24 (N/A, TEN, NE)
Sure, these guys are way more experienced than the guys from the last regime . . . but their recent history collectively isn't that great. The most common teams in the mix are NE (16-35), TEN (16-35), LV (18-33), CLE (21-30), NYJ (19-32), NYG (18-32-1), CAR (14-37), and CHI (15-36) . . . all of whom were at or near the bottom of the league the last 3 few years. Maybe I have my Scrooge goggles on, but I don't look at that and thing "Top 5 coaching staff and front office in the league."
Mike Vrabel, head coach: 16-35 record (TEN, TEN, CLE)
Eliot Wolf, EVP of player personnel: 16-25 (NE, NE, NE)
Ryan Cowden, VP of player personnel: 16-35 (TEN, NYG, NYG)
Matt Groh, director of player personnel: 16-35 (NE, NE, NE)
Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator: 14-23 (LV, LV, N/A)
Ashton Grant, QB coach: 21-30 (CLE, CLE, CLE)
Tony Dews, RB coach: 18-33 (TEN, TEN, NYJ)
Todd Dowling, WR coach: 19-32 (TEN, NYJ, NYJ)
Thomas Brown, TE coach: 12-39 (LAR, CAR, CHI)
Doug Marrone, OL coach: 16-18 (NOS, NOS, N/A)
Jason Houghtaling, assistant OL coach: 18-33 (TEN, TEN, CHI)
Robert Kugler, assistant OL coach: 13-38 (CAR, CAR, NE)
Terell Williams, defensive coordinator: 28-23 (TEN, TEN, DET)
Clint McMillan, defensive line coach: 16-35 (TEN, TEN, TEN)
Mike Smith, OLB coach: 20-14 (MIN, MIN, N/A)
Zak Kuhr, ILB coach: 16-35 (TEN, TEN, NYG)
Justin Hamilton, CB coach: 14-20 (N/A, TEN, IND)
Scott Booker, S coach: 26-25 (TEN, TEN, BUF)
Ben McAdoo, senior defensive assistant: 11-23 (CAR, N/A, NE)
Jeremy Springer, special teams coordinator: 19-34 (LAR, LAR, NE)
Tom Quinn, assistant special teams coach: 10-24 (N/A, TEN, NE)
Sure, these guys are way more experienced than the guys from the last regime . . . but their recent history collectively isn't that great. The most common teams in the mix are NE (16-35), TEN (16-35), LV (18-33), CLE (21-30), NYJ (19-32), NYG (18-32-1), CAR (14-37), and CHI (15-36) . . . all of whom were at or near the bottom of the league the last 3 few years. Maybe I have my Scrooge goggles on, but I don't look at that and thing "Top 5 coaching staff and front office in the league."
Bossman
Footballguy
My first thought is; There are reasons these guys were available. Apparently "recent success" is not one of them.
Hopefully they can figure it out this go-around.
Boston
Footballguy
Phil Perry sums it up:
www.nbcsportsboston.com
Perry: Three reasons why Patriots signing Diggs was a smart move
There's more than meets the eye with Stefon Diggs, writes Phil Perry, who explains why adding the Pro Bowl wideout was a win for the Patriots.
www.nbcsportsboston.com