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Interesting read (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hotboyz
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
I didn't have time to read the article in detail, but I will add a few other items . . .
I specifically DON'T have a plan when I draft. I pick from the players that fall to me and basically scoop up guys that shouldn't be available then. If there are a couple of players I really want, I am not afraid to take them earlier than they should go, cause if I really want someone I will have him projected WAY better than their ADP slots them at. I also am not married to any team or any player, and being callous and cold hearted will only help you on draft day. I have no reservations about drafting players from the sworn enemy of my favorite team(s).
While I agree with the article that it is important to end up with elite scorers at certain positions (including QB), I disagree that automatically means you have to have burn a first round pick to get top tier scoring. To save a lot of time and mumbo jumbo, the key to winning is grabbing the top fantasy scorers no matter what round they come from. Like many people last year, I had no idea Cam Newton was in for the season he had. In the main, though, I think it is rare that a late late pick turns into an uber fantasy scorer, but for those that did not want to draft Aaron Rodgers and friends at the top of the draft, there were other options.
I have done fairly well over the years, and part of the reason is taking the guys that are in position to do well, had some success already, basically fly a bit under the radar, and fall in your lap on draft day. For example, last year in the FBG staff league I ended up with a WR corps of Welker, Wallace, Nelson, Cruz, and Britt. For the most part, I ended up alternating RB and WR picks until the middle rounds and by that point the corps of my team was set. Since my QBs fell victim to injury out of the gate, I think I ended up using 8 different QBs along the way. Bottom line is, no one will care what name appears in the fantasy box score, and I ended up using the strategy of playing whatever QB was facing the Patriots last year. Whatever works . . .
For the more serious fantasy football players, I would not be adverse to sticting to your own convictions and avoiding the group think / mob mentality. A lot of fantasy sites and experts tend to stick with the heard and don't want to come across as a nut job for shuffling their rankings. If you as an individual feels like Brandon Lloyd is going to be a Top 5 WR this year, take the laughs from your league mates and move on.
I specifically DON'T have a plan when I draft. I pick from the players that fall to me and basically scoop up guys that shouldn't be available then. If there are a couple of players I really want, I am not afraid to take them earlier than they should go, cause if I really want someone I will have him projected WAY better than their ADP slots them at. I also am not married to any team or any player, and being callous and cold hearted will only help you on draft day. I have no reservations about drafting players from the sworn enemy of my favorite team(s).
While I agree with the article that it is important to end up with elite scorers at certain positions (including QB), I disagree that automatically means you have to have burn a first round pick to get top tier scoring. To save a lot of time and mumbo jumbo, the key to winning is grabbing the top fantasy scorers no matter what round they come from. Like many people last year, I had no idea Cam Newton was in for the season he had. In the main, though, I think it is rare that a late late pick turns into an uber fantasy scorer, but for those that did not want to draft Aaron Rodgers and friends at the top of the draft, there were other options.
I have done fairly well over the years, and part of the reason is taking the guys that are in position to do well, had some success already, basically fly a bit under the radar, and fall in your lap on draft day. For example, last year in the FBG staff league I ended up with a WR corps of Welker, Wallace, Nelson, Cruz, and Britt. For the most part, I ended up alternating RB and WR picks until the middle rounds and by that point the corps of my team was set. Since my QBs fell victim to injury out of the gate, I think I ended up using 8 different QBs along the way. Bottom line is, no one will care what name appears in the fantasy box score, and I ended up using the strategy of playing whatever QB was facing the Patriots last year. Whatever works . . .
For the more serious fantasy football players, I would not be adverse to sticting to your own convictions and avoiding the group think / mob mentality. A lot of fantasy sites and experts tend to stick with the heard and don't want to come across as a nut job for shuffling their rankings. If you as an individual feels like Brandon Lloyd is going to be a Top 5 WR this year, take the laughs from your league mates and move on.
butcher boy
Footballguy
I agree with it to an extent in that I am not afraid at all to draft a QB in the first round.
A lot of people say running backs are scarce so therefore you have to secure one in round 1 and I don't buy it. Running backs may be scarce but that doesn't mean I'm burning a pick on a guy like DMac who you just know will not play the whole season or Mathews who you could same the same thing about to a lesser extent, etc. All of first round backs outside of the top 3 have similar question marks. Scarcity doesn't mean I'm going to panic and draft a guy that my gut tells me isn't going to live up to that high an ADP.
A lot of people say running backs are scarce so therefore you have to secure one in round 1 and I don't buy it. Running backs may be scarce but that doesn't mean I'm burning a pick on a guy like DMac who you just know will not play the whole season or Mathews who you could same the same thing about to a lesser extent, etc. All of first round backs outside of the top 3 have similar question marks. Scarcity doesn't mean I'm going to panic and draft a guy that my gut tells me isn't going to live up to that high an ADP.
It doesn't make any difference which way you draft because, if you're drafting with pros, you will end up shorting yourself some how. There are things that you can probably get by with when you're sitting at a bar, with your hometown buddies, drafting your FF team. But, try the same thing in 1 of the FBGs leagues and you will get your butt handed to you, AND IN A HURRY.
Why people use ADP confuses me to no end. I have yet to find ANY FF Mocking Website that use FBGs scoring and starting players system. I have gone out to FF Calculators and the best that you can do, that I know of, is 12 team, PPR, and FLEX. Is that 1 FLEX, 2 FLEX, 5 FLEX or what? Plus the PPR for TEs is 1/reception. Then, of course, you get Drafters that think their home team is wonderful so some joker has his first 5 picks filled with Dallas Cowboys. In addition, you get all of those "Computer Controlled" picks starting about Rnd 10. And, just exactly whose Ranking List are they using for the Computer Picks?
In the final analysis, YOU are the 1 that has to make the picks. I helps to understand Waldman's "Upside Drafting". It helps to see FBGs PPR Rankings and to read their articles. It helps to see the "Red vs Blue" draft. But YOU have to make the picks. And you have NO CONTROLL as to who will get injured. IMHO, this FF Sport is, at best, 50% skill.
Why people use ADP confuses me to no end. I have yet to find ANY FF Mocking Website that use FBGs scoring and starting players system. I have gone out to FF Calculators and the best that you can do, that I know of, is 12 team, PPR, and FLEX. Is that 1 FLEX, 2 FLEX, 5 FLEX or what? Plus the PPR for TEs is 1/reception. Then, of course, you get Drafters that think their home team is wonderful so some joker has his first 5 picks filled with Dallas Cowboys. In addition, you get all of those "Computer Controlled" picks starting about Rnd 10. And, just exactly whose Ranking List are they using for the Computer Picks?
In the final analysis, YOU are the 1 that has to make the picks. I helps to understand Waldman's "Upside Drafting". It helps to see FBGs PPR Rankings and to read their articles. It helps to see the "Red vs Blue" draft. But YOU have to make the picks. And you have NO CONTROLL as to who will get injured. IMHO, this FF Sport is, at best, 50% skill.
I think David hits in on the head. The best plan to be flexible. If you go in planning on doing the Upside down draft or RB/RB from the 12 spot, no matter how many times you mock it out, something is going to throw you off track. Someone you weren't expecting is going to drop or someone you expected to be there won't. Now panic mode sets in and can really throw you off the rest of the draft.
I think the successful draft requires 3 things:
1) Willingness to take any gifts anyone is willing to give you (someone dropping to somewhere they shouldn't)
2) Realizing all players have a price where they're worth the pick.
3) All the values in 2 are probably different for the other 11 teams, so if you LOVE someone have some balls and grab him a round (or surely some teams will think 2 or 3 rounds) too early. If I think (to use David's example) Brandon Lloyd is going to have a season for the ages, I better be sure he's going to make it back to me before I pass on him. I'd rather have him on my team and be wrong that to see him on someone elses team and be right.
I think the successful draft requires 3 things:
1) Willingness to take any gifts anyone is willing to give you (someone dropping to somewhere they shouldn't)
2) Realizing all players have a price where they're worth the pick.
3) All the values in 2 are probably different for the other 11 teams, so if you LOVE someone have some balls and grab him a round (or surely some teams will think 2 or 3 rounds) too early. If I think (to use David's example) Brandon Lloyd is going to have a season for the ages, I better be sure he's going to make it back to me before I pass on him. I'd rather have him on my team and be wrong that to see him on someone elses team and be right.
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butcher boy
Footballguy
DMac and Mathews are the two off the top of my head that I'd bet will miss time and I'm confident enough in that to have accounted for it in my own projections. I'm sure there are others but no one I'm confident enough to adjust projections for yet.'Dr. Octopus said:
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I took Brady #3 overall and agree with this story. This might sound odd but I had wanted to write a similar article that highlights just how absurd last season was with no off season and no OTAs, really feels like the numbers got skewed.
I would like to ask the board a question. If you erased 2011 in terms of raw stats and pretend 4 QBs did not throw for 5,000 yards...my question would be this. Pretend last year did not exist, who would you feel are the top 2-3 QBs in 2012? I think it is better to try and have that 2011 mindset in some areas vs the craziness around some of these guys in 2012.
I would like to ask the board a question. If you erased 2011 in terms of raw stats and pretend 4 QBs did not throw for 5,000 yards...my question would be this. Pretend last year did not exist, who would you feel are the top 2-3 QBs in 2012? I think it is better to try and have that 2011 mindset in some areas vs the craziness around some of these guys in 2012.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
One thing I forgot to mention is that I care more about ppg than I do ranking. So I LOVE when people want to discount players like Mathews or Vick or AJ or whomever. Even if they miss a few games, those players plus a generic back up will outperform "safer" picks or guys that usually play 16 games. I want to field the highest scoring team as often as I can. For example . . .13 games of Mathews at 14 ppg + 3 games of bench player 8.0 ppg (206 fantasy points) will be greater than 16 games of Frank Gore at 11.3 ppg (176 points).'butcher boy said:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I would still think Brady would be in for a monster 2012 even if 2011 never happened. Compared to the start of 2010, the Pats have added Lloyd, Gaffney, and Stallworth (and technically Branch was added since then too), a diva got replaced (Moss), BJGE left town (leaving an unproven RB corps), and the Pats would have added some TEs to go with their blossoming TE pairing. Plus, the Pats defense was a liability then too.I also would have suggested that fantasy passing totals for top QBs would have risen as that has been the trend even before then. It's just the size of the increase that was surprising. Also, the NFL has been migrating to a two hand touch approach to defending QBs and flagging people for looking at QBs wrong. I think that has had a more profound impact than the lack of OTAs and training camp did.
butcher boy
Footballguy
True, except if Mathews gets hurt during fantasy playoffs, then it's his backup at 8 ppg vs. Gore's at 11.3 ppg. (Might be a bad example because Gore's another injury prone guy but the same point applies).You also better be darn sure you draft Mathews' handcuff for that to work out, or in DMac's case if you go that route, correctly identifying exactly who his backup will be.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Why are we comparing Mathews to Gore again?I understand your point but you are looking at the situation in a vacuum. I mean if you wanna look at it on a position to position basis thats cool, seems like a waste of time to me to neglect the big picture.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I am really not trying to influence what you do (or anyone else for that matter), but long story short I don't believe in handcuffing unless you know for a fact the backup will do as well because of the situation (ie Holmes and LJ, currently Foster and Tate, etc.) Most leagues I am in have limited roster room and I don't see the point in holding on to someone all season to basically be filling space.Also, if the situation as you described were to occur, there are ALWAYS decent plug and play RB options out there come fantasy playoffs, as several NFL teams will have burned through starters and backups and will be playing guys many fantasy folks have never heard of. If the match up is good, I also have no qualms about picking up one of those rental types and sitting a more proven player if I think the scrub will be more productive. As I said, I have NO RESERVATIONS about playing a no name. I played Matt Moore in the championship round last year. I could care less whether the player is a sexy player to play or not.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
The point was, I would rather have a guy that is a better, more elite option and don't care if he misses some games. I pulled Gore's name out of a hat. Vick would be a better example, as he gets nicked a lot and people will always rank QBs that have a very good chance to play 16 games over Vick because they are only looking at the total points scored not the weekly average. So sure, maybe the Cutlers, Schaubs, Flaccos of the world will score more total points on the season, but Vick will win you more games.
MASSHOLE
Footballguy
The point of the article seemed to be about top tier 1 QB's vs tier 2/3/4 RB's which are dime a dozen. With the new rules of protecting the RB, chances are they can last a full season - which seems like those chances are better than any RB not being injured. If the game is about outscoring your opponents on a consistent weekly basis, then it seems to me that drafting a stud QB is the way to go.
Previously I have been running mocks picking foster/rice/mccoy and have been left scratching my butt to find value at the QB position - Drafting a QB has filled that void, while also giving plenty of depth at the RB/WR position.
Thoughts?
Previously I have been running mocks picking foster/rice/mccoy and have been left scratching my butt to find value at the QB position - Drafting a QB has filled that void, while also giving plenty of depth at the RB/WR position.
Thoughts?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
My thoughts exactly David, and that is what I think folks are missing. I don't want to get into a lengthy debate over some guys that I have a lot of respect for but you peel back 2011 and imagine it really never happened even though it did, imagine if things are more in line with 2010 vs 2011...and I agree brady still shreds it, I just think if you accept the fact this will be more like 2010 than 2011 for the league as a whole...you are hard pressed to find a better QB situation with OL play, receivers and weapons, he has a great coaching staff with Josh back on the sidelines...I think that guy as much as anyone is going to run a roto-rooter up defenses yee haws all season long. The Pats don't stop...remember 59-0! If you read that article and then go back and look at where you are at in projections or just thoughts, I think more than a few people are going to start to panic quickly.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Whatever you think you can do to win, go for it. But I am living proof that you don't need elite QB scoring to still win. In last year's FBG staff league, I could only muster 350 points from my QBs (second to last in the league) when 3 teams went over 500 points. The issue was that I couldn't keep a QB healthy. IIRC, throughout the year I rostered (not all at once): Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Vince Young, Matt Moore, Caleb Hanie, TJ Yates, Matt Leinart, and Kyle Orton. Yet my team was able to score 400 points more than league average overall. Why? Because I was stacked at other positions. And it's not like I didn't have other injuries. Best and Britt got hurt, some other guys got dinged up, etc. The team with Aaron Rodgers came in last in scoring (I outscored that team by almost 700 points on the season). Bottom line, one pick for better or for worse will not win or lose your league.
Look, I enjoy looking at the FBGs articles. I like hearing the opinions of Yudkin, Joe, David, and so on. But, at this point in time, all of those projections and ADP positionings are pretty much crap, formulated "by guess and by golly". Have any of you seen Weeden play 1 NFL game, yet? Well, have you? But you've projected Littles numbers, right? Do any of you know whether or not those DEF rookies that NE drafted are going to be worth anything? Do you really believe that if NE is ahead 27-0 starting the 4th Qtr that they will trot Brady out there and have him keep firing? What was it, 40% of the TOP 10 RBs from 2011, won't be there in 2012? And, if you think that the lock-out of 2011 was bad, what do you think the effect will be with the replacement refs, if they go a ways into the seaso? Let's watch a couple of preseason games first, ok?
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I don't think he is saying in the article that you can't win that way, I think he saying that FF is basically like gambling you are basically playing the odds. Sure sometimes you gonna play against the odds and you gonna hit big like I did last yr ( got stafford in 7th rd cam FA traded stafford for fitz and Matthews) but if u gonna play the odds to win consistently on a weekly basis the odds say your best chance of doing that is by having a stud QB
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Actually, historically it's 50% turnover in the Top 10 at RB from year to year. BUT . . . it's usually a factor of health . . . not so much talent or situation. SOOOOOO . . . guys that were healthy in 2011 won't be as healthy in 2012 and will fall out . . . AND . . . guys that were unhealthy in 2011 but were healthy in 2010 will often return. This is why I can't stress enough . . . RANKINGS DON'T MATTER ANYWHERE NEAR AS MUCH AS PPG DOES!!!!!! Also, the bigger the sample size, the more accurate you can predict things. Sure, situations change some (coaches, personnel, health, etc.) but we should be able to get a representative snapshot of things as a whole. To that end, here were the Top 25 RB based on ppg over the past 2 seasons combined:
Code:
1 Arian Foster 20.202 LeSean McCoy 16.793 Darren McFadden 16.664 Ray Rice 16.095 Adrian Peterson 15.976 M. Jones-Drew 15.647 Jamaal Charles 14.268 Matt Forte 13.879 Michael Turner 13.5810 Ahmad Bradshaw 12.9111 Peyton Hillis 12.8412 Fred Jackson 12.6813 Frank Gore 12.6314 Chris Johnson 12.6115 R Mendenhall 12.4016 Steven Jackson 12.3317 Ryan Mathews 12.1018 Marshawn Lynch 11.0919 Jahvid Best 10.8020 Michael Bush 10.6821 Cedric Benson 10.5722 B. Green-Ellis 10.5023 Mike Tolbert 10.4524 L. Blount 9.6725 Reggie Bush 9.65Seeing the RB 2 year PPG is great. That, plus Rankings, Projections, and all the rest of the data does contribute to determining each person's draft decisions. But, I'm MORE interested in why a RBs PPG is where it's at. For example, take Chris Johnson. Let's face it. Last year was certainly an anomaly in professionl football. A Lock-Out and minimal work-outs to prepare for the season. I believe that Chris is one of those players (and there are a LOT of others) that needs the discipline, structure, and regimentation to get into shape. He just does. He can't get into football shape on his own. So, is his PPG worth much to me? No, not really.
How about Jamaal Charles? He's coming back from an injury. KC got Hillis. What effect will Charles' injury and presence of Hillis have on Jamaal's PPG? Maybe quite a lot.
David, I haven't chosen you off, here. Really. But, PPG is just ANOTHER stat, in my mind. Does it work for some RBs and QBs and WRs, and so on? Sure. Does it work for ALL of them? Hell no.
One of the things that I would be interested in is: how many QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs that were in the TOP 5 in 1 year, remained in the TOP 10 the following year. That way I would have a better idea as to the probability that Foster, McCoy and Rice would still be viable RBs to be taken in Rnd 1.
I agree that the pre-season hype is a lot of mularkey. Years ago, that's MANY years ago, I used to hustle pool. I NEVER paid much attention to the shot's my opponent made, but I was REALLY interested in the shot's my opponent would take. So, I believe that there is a number of reason to watch the pre-season games. Is Chris Johnson really in shape and does he have the speed and quickness (the 2 primary complaints about him in 2011) that he had in 2010? Is Charles favoring his leg? Does it appear that Charles/Hillis are splitting carries? Can Fleener fight his way off the LOS? Who will be catching passes in Miami? What effect will Lloyd have on Welker, Hernandez and Gronk in NE (there are an awfull lot of mouths to feed and only 1 football). That's what pre-season is for, imo.
How about Jamaal Charles? He's coming back from an injury. KC got Hillis. What effect will Charles' injury and presence of Hillis have on Jamaal's PPG? Maybe quite a lot.
David, I haven't chosen you off, here. Really. But, PPG is just ANOTHER stat, in my mind. Does it work for some RBs and QBs and WRs, and so on? Sure. Does it work for ALL of them? Hell no.
One of the things that I would be interested in is: how many QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs that were in the TOP 5 in 1 year, remained in the TOP 10 the following year. That way I would have a better idea as to the probability that Foster, McCoy and Rice would still be viable RBs to be taken in Rnd 1.
I agree that the pre-season hype is a lot of mularkey. Years ago, that's MANY years ago, I used to hustle pool. I NEVER paid much attention to the shot's my opponent made, but I was REALLY interested in the shot's my opponent would take. So, I believe that there is a number of reason to watch the pre-season games. Is Chris Johnson really in shape and does he have the speed and quickness (the 2 primary complaints about him in 2011) that he had in 2010? Is Charles favoring his leg? Does it appear that Charles/Hillis are splitting carries? Can Fleener fight his way off the LOS? Who will be catching passes in Miami? What effect will Lloyd have on Welker, Hernandez and Gronk in NE (there are an awfull lot of mouths to feed and only 1 football). That's what pre-season is for, imo.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Really good article. I tend to agree with his findings that these are the Top 11 Studs worthy of a first round pick (especially in 6pt/passing TD leagues):1. Aaron Rodgers (14 times)2. Drew Brees (12)3. Tom Brady (9)4. Cam Newton (9)5. LeSean McCoy (9)6. Arian Foster (9)7. Calvin Johnson (9)8. Rob Gronkowski (9)9. Matthew Stafford (8)10. Ray Rice (8)11. Jimmy Graham (8)After the consensus top five are gone (likely Foster, Rice, McCoy, CJ, and Rodgers), I'd be most inclined to pick up Brees or Brady in 6pt/passing TD leagues, and probably Graham/Gronk in PPR/4pt/passing TD leagues.The trick is, who is the pick at 1.12 and at the turn at 1.13? Probably two of the following RBs: Matthews, CJohnson, McFadden, Forte.Other players in the conversation that I'm not thrilled with this year:Fitz -- who's gonna throw him the ballCharles -- too many potential splits of carries with Hillis to justify his current ADPMJD - holdout concernAndre Johnson -- recent injury history has scared me away'hotboyz said:
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
As far as CJ goes, for whatever reason, his numbers have been going the wrong direction since his 2009 yard monster season. ALL his rushing totals have dropped off by a fair amount. So while I will agree that he should bounce back some, I don't see him as a Top 3 threat currently. He's not as bad as that 2 yr PPG ranking, but IMO that tells me that he probably should be viewed somewhere in the middle or on the lower side of the middle. Again, that's just me and my evaluation. Certainly other people will conclude other things. Plus there were other factors that played into him having a 2K yard season (OL play, QB play, lack of great receiving options, etc.).As for some of your other comments, Charles should still show signs of a limp if he's human, and KC would be insane to try to give him 300 carries. So I don't see any other realistic outcome other than he and Hillis will be splitting the carries. They've already shown they are comfortable in doing that as they did that with Jones instead of Hillis.I agree that it would be nice to know the answers to some of the other questions you raised, but I am not sure we will be provided any. For example, if Bess has 10 catches in a preseason game, does that mean he will be the go to guy in the regular season . . . or does that mean he is so low on the pecking order that they are willing to risk playing him a lot in the preseason? As for the Pats situation, no matter what they do in the preseason I promise you it will be completely different in the regular season as that's just how they roll.As far as players repeating decent rankings from one year to the next, I again say rankings are less important than most people make them out to be. A player could rank tops at his position and STILL not be worth his fantasy draft slot if overall his relative calue is not great. In prior years, that happened a few times with QBs. The #1 QB did not due that much better than his peers, so having him was a plus but not a huge advantage.IIRC, Priest Holmes had a year where he ranked 12th on the season . . . but he only played 8 games. If you had him for those games, odds were you were going to win. He scored like 200 fantasy points in 8 games. I agree, not having him the other 8 games was a big problem, but he was a BEAST prior to getting hurt. So my question to you would be, would Holmes then be considered a fantasy bust . . . seeing how he didn't rank in the Top 10 that year?BB has no qualms about setting up other teams with misinformation. For example, Moss' first year in NE he was held out of practice and got benched for most of the preseason games. There were whispers that he had already given up on the team or that he was hurt and couldn't even dress, blah, blah, blah. Then he came out in Week 1 and STEAMROLLED the Jets like the Randy Moss of old. Samething with Deion Branch. I think he caught one pall in the preseason last year and he actually WAS playing a ton. Many reports had him on the bubble with the addition of Ocho and that he was at best going to be a 5th receiver and at worst cut. The regular season started and he was the same Branach as before and used as before.Seeing the RB 2 year PPG is great. That, plus Rankings, Projections, and all the rest of the data does contribute to determining each person's draft decisions. But, I'm MORE interested in why a RBs PPG is where it's at. For example, take Chris Johnson. Let's face it. Last year was certainly an anomaly in professionl football. A Lock-Out and minimal work-outs to prepare for the season. I believe that Chris is one of those players (and there are a LOT of others) that needs the discipline, structure, and regimentation to get into shape. He just does. He can't get into football shape on his own. So, is his PPG worth much to me? No, not really.How about Jamaal Charles? He's coming back from an injury. KC got Hillis. What effect will Charles' injury and presence of Hillis have on Jamaal's PPG? Maybe quite a lot.David, I haven't chosen you off, here. Really. But, PPG is just ANOTHER stat, in my mind. Does it work for some RBs and QBs and WRs, and so on? Sure. Does it work for ALL of them? Hell nne of the things that I would be interested in is: how many QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs that were in the TOP 5 in 1 year, remained in the TOP 10 the following year. That way I would have a better idea as to the probability that Foster, McCoy and Rice would still be viable RBs to be taken in Rnd 1.I agree that the pre-season hype is a lot of mularkey. Years ago, that's MANY years ago, I used to hustle pool. I NEVER paid much attention to the shot's my opponent made, but I was REALLY interested in the shot's my opponent would take. So, I believe that there is a number of reason to watch the pre-season games. Is Chris Johnson really in shape and does he have the speed and quickness (the 2 primary complaints about him in 2011) that he had in 2010? Is Charles favoring his leg? Does it appear that Charles/Hillis are splitting carries? Can Fleener fight his way off the LOS? Who will be catching passes in Miami? What effect will Lloyd have on Welker, Hernandez and Gronk in NE (there are an awfull lot of mouths to feed and only 1 football). That's what pre-season is for, imo.
-jb-
Footballguy
Firm believer that this will be the case this year. I think you're best served to bet on the regression, and grab Romo, Eli, Vick, and the guy I really see as value - Ryan.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Mathew Berry just doesn't get it and for sum reason he's the face of the fantasy sports. He keeps trying to chase last years best teams without understanding the logic behind the theory. He will go down in infamy for declaring Michael Vick should be the number one pick last year because Vick was the QB started on most championship teams in 2010. He would have never sounded so dum if he took a second to ask why? Because he wasn't even drafted! If Jesus himself told me today I would find the number #1 fantasy qb on waivers this year I would pay my fees and let the auto pick my draft and beat any experts you can name.
The article was interesting but fundamentally flawed. The top QB's are scoring more points now but Berry fail to realize is the rest of the Qb's are scoring/throwing more as well. Just yesterday 4,000+ yards and 25+ Td you were considered a elite qb in fantasy, now the second tier guys occupy those numbers. So the shark play is still to wait on a QB if you cant find good value because not much has changed, the numbers are just inflated to cloud judgement. Kind of like the pictures that ask which line is bigger but one is attached to arrows.
I will say that the TE argument I'm buying more for the same reason every one is so giddy to get a QB. The difference in Gronk vs. Hernandes(3rd TE in non-ppr) last year based on avg ppg was no different then Rodgers vs. Eli(6th qb). If you don't get my point there's a bigger gap at elite TE position than elite QB position but no one seems to notice! For guys like me that still value rb/Wr more than QB/TE but is still seeking a week-to-week advantage then Gronk/Graham in rd2 is a good play that could yield the same results as the latter. What ever pick I have in the second round I won't let a top qb/te get pass me. So whatever to Matthew Berry, he's the guy laughing at the joke but didn't catch the punchline. The commissioner of my league sent that article to everyone, that was all I needed to know.
The article was interesting but fundamentally flawed. The top QB's are scoring more points now but Berry fail to realize is the rest of the Qb's are scoring/throwing more as well. Just yesterday 4,000+ yards and 25+ Td you were considered a elite qb in fantasy, now the second tier guys occupy those numbers. So the shark play is still to wait on a QB if you cant find good value because not much has changed, the numbers are just inflated to cloud judgement. Kind of like the pictures that ask which line is bigger but one is attached to arrows.
I will say that the TE argument I'm buying more for the same reason every one is so giddy to get a QB. The difference in Gronk vs. Hernandes(3rd TE in non-ppr) last year based on avg ppg was no different then Rodgers vs. Eli(6th qb). If you don't get my point there's a bigger gap at elite TE position than elite QB position but no one seems to notice! For guys like me that still value rb/Wr more than QB/TE but is still seeking a week-to-week advantage then Gronk/Graham in rd2 is a good play that could yield the same results as the latter. What ever pick I have in the second round I won't let a top qb/te get pass me. So whatever to Matthew Berry, he's the guy laughing at the joke but didn't catch the punchline. The commissioner of my league sent that article to everyone, that was all I needed to know.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I believe the same thing and need to use it more in practice. During the season, you have 13 different battles and you just generally need to know who your players are in a given week. McFadden is a great example of this. Even if you didn't have the Bush handcuff, he won you games early in the season. The only worry is that guys get an ACL or other season ender. But if you are worried about that, why pick them at all?
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
And since he want credit for Stafford then why the hell would u take Any QB 1st overall if you seen that much value late? On a per game basis Stafford wasn't a Bold pick, it was a VALUE pick. That dude is pure entertainment nate berry stephania bell do a better job than him.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I agree that there are some decent values at QB and TE, but that doesn't mean all of them will score equally.Here were last year's QB PPG numbers . . .1 Aaron Rodgers 29.992 Drew Brees 28.653 Tom Brady 27.174 Cam Newton 26.685 Matthew Stafford 25.486 Michael Vick 22.167 Eli Manning 22.068 Tony Romo 20.869 Matt Ryan 20.8310 Philip Rivers 20.5511 Mark Sanchez 19.1312 Matt Schaub 19.09And TEs . . .1 Rob Gronkowski 15.062 Jimmy Graham 12.313 Aaron Hernandez 9.824 Antonio Gates 9.225 Fred Davis 8.116 Tony Gonzalez 8.097 Jermichael Finley 7.798 Jason Witten 7.769 Vernon Davis 7.1710 Dustin Keller 6.9711 Brent Celek 6.9412 Jermaine Gresham 6.83Now I agree that last year was last year, but I am not sure how anyone can conclude that later round guys that may be values will be equal to the elite guys. Sure, there may be a guy or two that steps it up, but I would propose that the Rodgers / Brees / Bradys / Gronks / Grahams of the world have a better chance of averaging much higher than some of the "values" later on. 30 points is not 22, nor is 15 points the same as 7.I also would agree that just because those guys had as big an advantage last year does not mean they are a lock to have the same net result this year, but IMO it's still a safer bet to project the top guys from last year closer to the top PROVIDED THERE ARE REASONS TO. There will also be some logically reasons why to predict a dropoff, but all things being equal I don't see Rodgers suddenly averaging 16 fantasy ppg.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
on a PPG basis, these guys 'kill it'..I don't really think it matters who is throwing the ball to Fitz, he is going to get his pts, no matter what..same with AJ ( when/if healthy)..the turn picks at 1.12 and 1.13 are very tricky indeed..you've mentioned Forte, Mathews, Chris Johnson, McFadden at the turn..but you could also make the case for Julio Jones, AJ, Fitz, Roddy White, Vick ( who supposedly had 7 studly games last season - two behind Brady(9) - and Vick missed 3 games!)..if you think Matt Ryan is one to watch out for, what about Peyton Manning, a stud performance churning machine prior to 2011..if he's anywhere near the Peyton of old, he's in for a big,big year...
what I took away from that article was that Vick is extremely valuable, and just might be the most overlooked player in this year's draft. he plays like a top 10/top 5 QB, but he's available much later than Brady and Co...
it also tells us that outside of Foster, Rice, McCoy, your first round selection should be a stud QB..Quite a change from yesteryear,when you saw 8-9 Rb's go off in the first round..
I like the PPG view vs. rankings and top 10 lists..
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If you are asking me specifially, then we need to clarify. DMACK to date has been an injury risk, so you have to factor that it. On draft day, that normally is part of the package and his price tag already has a built in discount because of it. He may be a top 4-5 RB pick based on that, but I don't think he is a top 5 overall pick.
Detroit Revival
Footballguy
It's a decent article. I like what's been said before but ultimately you can't take any FF advice at face value. I play in a 16 team 1qb/2rb/3wr/1te league. In the 16 teamer last year, I find it's necessary to handcuff my RBs. The waiver wire isn't deep enough to where you can get a starter or someone getting a reliable # of touches.
We score our QBs with 6 per TD which makes them even more valuable. You better be sure your backup is good, I would not have been able to roster near the amount of QBS David would have. You've got to get a solid QB fast so the ADP data for QBs is mostly thrown out the window.
Also, in my league there really isn't such a thing as a sleeper. If you really believe a player is going to break out you need to select them earlier than you normally would. You need to draft them almost as you value them on your draft sheet rather than being able to wait and pick them up a round or two later. Players don't slip like they do in other drafts, and if they do, it's maybe by 1 round.
Also there's no way for a cheatsheet to reflect league tendencies. Knowing that you've got Bucs homers and Falcons homers (which we have in spades) is worth gold. Bucs and Falcons players are not on my radar cause I know they'll always be drafted before their ADP and more importantly, higher than their value. The most important thing is to be able to soak in as much FF data and be able to adapt it. I couldn't say like David that I've won leagues against FF writers and professionals but he's been able to successfully win against the FBG staff by adapting all data coming in. Knowing that you can patch together a crazy qbbc and be competitive is the best piece of knowledge to have.
We score our QBs with 6 per TD which makes them even more valuable. You better be sure your backup is good, I would not have been able to roster near the amount of QBS David would have. You've got to get a solid QB fast so the ADP data for QBs is mostly thrown out the window.
Also, in my league there really isn't such a thing as a sleeper. If you really believe a player is going to break out you need to select them earlier than you normally would. You need to draft them almost as you value them on your draft sheet rather than being able to wait and pick them up a round or two later. Players don't slip like they do in other drafts, and if they do, it's maybe by 1 round.
Also there's no way for a cheatsheet to reflect league tendencies. Knowing that you've got Bucs homers and Falcons homers (which we have in spades) is worth gold. Bucs and Falcons players are not on my radar cause I know they'll always be drafted before their ADP and more importantly, higher than their value. The most important thing is to be able to soak in as much FF data and be able to adapt it. I couldn't say like David that I've won leagues against FF writers and professionals but he's been able to successfully win against the FBG staff by adapting all data coming in. Knowing that you can patch together a crazy qbbc and be competitive is the best piece of knowledge to have.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
My league rules are a lot different so I'm wrong for speaking in general, we still use .04 for per passing yard and 4 points per td so it's a little more obvious. Try and compare the top 5 to the rest of the field any other year with your settings. Or Gates/Gonz to the field.The same way no one could foresee Phillip Rivers or Mike Vick taking a step back can happen with any pick. My issue is everyone is buying the get a elite QB argument and my response is go right ahead because I don't feel at a disadvantage all of a sudden after using committees for years. My other point is I don't buy into the idea that the Qb position is more valuable than rb/wr when you can only roll out one in most leagues. You will roster 10+ wr/rb and at most 2 qb/te/def so why don't you draft the top Kicker and Defense in round 5 and 6 before anyone else? Its the same theory but everyone will laugh at you basically. I'm not reinventing the wheel because Matthew Berry says so. My playoff matchups were against Newton, Stafford and Bees so maybe I'm too optimistic.
Isn't this really just an argument to not factor injuries into our projections?
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
yes
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Insoxicated
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I don't know if you can win a league by trying not to lose though.
