Is A.J. Green the #1 Dynasty WR? (1 Viewer)

[doowain]

There is a short list of names you could throw into the Top 5 mix (Calvin, Andre, Fitz, Nicks, Dez, etc). Realistically, in nearly every draft, Calvin Johnson will be the first WR taken in any draft next year. Up until the last couple weeks when I really thought hard on it, he was easily my WR1. And for good reason. He's been a monster this year (although he has "disappeared" the last few weeks). He has the perfect blend of talent, situation, and age to be the cornerstone of any dynasty team. But what if we can get the "next" Calvin (or dare I say "better" Calvin) at a cheaper price?

Let's compare him to A.J. Green...it's a bit unfair given this is AJG's rookie year. But, if we compare their rookie years, we see that AJG has already surpassed what Calvin did.



Green's Rookie Year

Thru 12 games (1 missed)

50 / 832 / 7TD

Projected

68 / 1134 / 9-10TD



Calvin's Rookie Year

15 games (10 starts)

48 / 756 / 4TD

Now, one could argue that Calvin had junk throwing to him. Not necessarily. That year he had Kitna, who happened to throw for over 4000 yards and 18 TDs. Dalton is certainly on pace to eclipse that TD mark (has 17), but should probably come up roughly 500 yards short in yardage.

What's most impressive about Green's rookie campaign has been the ease with which he gets open even against double teams. Without a huge threat across the field from him, his route running and feel for the position consistently puts him in a position to use his ELITE ball tracking and high pointing ability. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald/Randy Moss, I don't know of another WR I've seen that can match his skills there. And I can see him only getting better. IMO, he's already a better route runner than Moss (don't know how hard that is) and is faster than Fitz.

An advantage for Green is the 3 year age difference. With WRs, it's not a huge deal as they approach 30, but to get a guy of AJG's caliber at 23yo, given that he's hit the ground running and is matched up with a young QB that he can develop with for years to come...I think the 3 years is a big enough difference to be considered an advantage.

I'd rather this turn into a discussion, than me rambling.

Basically, I don't think WR1 in next year's startup dynasties is as big of a slam dunk as some may think. The real play may be to slide back to the end of Round 1, grab a Top RB and then snag AJG at the turn, or vice versa. I have to assume his value is going to rise this summer as more people come around on the idea of him being in the Calvin tier, though.

 

[Concept Coop]

There is a short list of names you could throw into the Top 5 mix (Calvin, Andre, Fitz, Nicks, Dez, etc). Realistically, in nearly every draft, Calvin Johnson will be the first WR taken in any draft next year. Up until the last couple weeks when I really thought hard on it, he was easily my WR1. And for good reason. He's been a monster this year (although he has "disappeared" the last few weeks). He has the perfect blend of talent, situation, and age to be the cornerstone of any dynasty team. But what if we can get the "next" Calvin (or dare I say "better" Calvin) at a cheaper price?

Let's compare him to A.J. Green...it's a bit unfair given this is AJG's rookie year. But, if we compare their rookie years, we see that AJG has already surpassed what Calvin did.



Green's Rookie Year

Thru 12 games (1 missed)

50 / 832 / 7TD

Projected

68 / 1134 / 9-10TD



Calvin's Rookie Year

15 games (10 starts)

48 / 756 / 4TD

Now, one could argue that Calvin had junk throwing to him. Not necessarily. That year he had Kitna, who happened to throw for over 4000 yards and 18 TDs. Dalton is certainly on pace to eclipse that TD mark (has 17), but should probably come up roughly 500 yards short in yardage.

What's most impressive about Green's rookie campaign has been the ease with which he gets open even against double teams. Without a huge threat across the field from him, his route running and feel for the position consistently puts him in a position to use his ELITE ball tracking and high pointing ability. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald/Randy Moss, I don't know of another WR I've seen that can match his skills there. And I can see him only getting better. IMO, he's already a better route runner than Moss (don't know how hard that is) and is faster than Fitz.

An advantage for Green is the 3 year age difference. With WRs, it's not a huge deal as they approach 30, but to get a guy of AJG's caliber at 23yo, given that he's hit the ground running and is matched up with a young QB that he can develop with for years to come...I think the 3 years is a big enough difference to be considered an advantage.

I'd rather this turn into a discussion, than me rambling.

Basically, I don't think WR1 in next year's startup dynasties is as big of a slam dunk as some may think. The real play may be to slide back to the end of Round 1, grab a Top RB and then snag AJG at the turn, or vice versa. I have to assume his value is going to rise this summer as more people come around on the idea of him being in the Calvin tier, though.

If it wasn't for Calvin, I think this could be a discussion to have. There is no value in taking Green over what Green could be one day, when Calvin has so much of his career left. Calvin has physical tools that Green simply never will. I don't think Green will ever be the player Calvin is, but that is simply my opinion. After Calvin, I wouldn't question anyone taking Green. I think he is clearly in the top 5 mix.

 

[doowain]

If it wasn't for Calvin, I think this could be a discussion to have. There is no value in taking Green over what Green could be one day, when Calvin has so much of his career left. Calvin has physical tools that Green simply never will. I don't think Green will ever be the player Calvin is, but that is simply my opinion. After Calvin, I wouldn't question anyone taking Green. I think he is clearly in the top 5 mix.

To be clear, I'm not advising to take him OVER Calvin in a startup. Their pricetags are different.Is it warranted though?

 

[CentralPA]

There is a short list of names you could throw into the Top 5 mix (Calvin, Andre, Fitz, Nicks, Dez, etc). Realistically, in nearly every draft, Calvin Johnson will be the first WR taken in any draft next year. Up until the last couple weeks when I really thought hard on it, he was easily my WR1. And for good reason. He's been a monster this year (although he has "disappeared" the last few weeks). He has the perfect blend of talent, situation, and age to be the cornerstone of any dynasty team. But what if we can get the "next" Calvin (or dare I say "better" Calvin) at a cheaper price?

Let's compare him to A.J. Green...it's a bit unfair given this is AJG's rookie year. But, if we compare their rookie years, we see that AJG has already surpassed what Calvin did.



Green's Rookie Year

Thru 12 games (1 missed)

50 / 832 / 7TD

Projected

68 / 1134 / 9-10TD



Calvin's Rookie Year

15 games (10 starts)

48 / 756 / 4TD

Now, one could argue that Calvin had junk throwing to him. Not necessarily. That year he had Kitna, who happened to throw for over 4000 yards and 18 TDs. Dalton is certainly on pace to eclipse that TD mark (has 17), but should probably come up roughly 500 yards short in yardage.

What's most impressive about Green's rookie campaign has been the ease with which he gets open even against double teams. Without a huge threat across the field from him, his route running and feel for the position consistently puts him in a position to use his ELITE ball tracking and high pointing ability. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald/Randy Moss, I don't know of another WR I've seen that can match his skills there. And I can see him only getting better. IMO, he's already a better route runner than Moss (don't know how hard that is) and is faster than Fitz.

An advantage for Green is the 3 year age difference. With WRs, it's not a huge deal as they approach 30, but to get a guy of AJG's caliber at 23yo, given that he's hit the ground running and is matched up with a young QB that he can develop with for years to come...I think the 3 years is a big enough difference to be considered an advantage.

I'd rather this turn into a discussion, than me rambling.

Basically, I don't think WR1 in next year's startup dynasties is as big of a slam dunk as some may think. The real play may be to slide back to the end of Round 1, grab a Top RB and then snag AJG at the turn, or vice versa. I have to assume his value is going to rise this summer as more people come around on the idea of him being in the Calvin tier, though.

If it wasn't for Calvin, I think this could be a discussion to have. There is no value in taking Green over what Green could be one day, when Calvin has so much of his career left. Calvin has physical tools that Green simply never will. I don't think Green will ever be the player Calvin is, but that is simply my opinion. After Calvin, I wouldn't question anyone taking Green. I think he is clearly in the top 5 mix.

This, but I get what you are saying. The kid makes it look easy. Scary thing is he will only get better. Very happy to have him in my 3 player keeper league.

 

[Herm23]

If it wasn't for Calvin, I think this could be a discussion to have. There is no value in taking Green over what Green could be one day, when Calvin has so much of his career left. Calvin has physical tools that Green simply never will. I don't think Green will ever be the player Calvin is, but that is simply my opinion. After Calvin, I wouldn't question anyone taking Green. I think he is clearly in the top 5 mix.

To be clear, I'm not advising to take him OVER Calvin in a startup. Their pricetags are different.Is it warranted though?

No. Calvin was mired with one of the most awful situations possibly imaginable through his first several years in the league and STILL will likely outperform what A.J. Green will do in his first couple years (don't forget how nice Calvin's second year was with a poo poo platter of QB's throwing to him and a dung pile of talent surrounding him). A.J. Green has the benefit of what looks to be at the very least a competent NFL QB throwing to him (even though he is a rookie), as well as a competent running game (far from great, but far from the trash the Detroit Lions rolled out for Calvin's first several years). While those will help him, if that changes, I don't believe he can do what Calvin has already proven he can do in a terrible situation.I think the discussion is warranted starting at "who is the #2 dynasty WR?" but believe it is utterly silly and not even close to warranted to begin comparing A.J. Green to Calvin. This kind of argument kind of, sort of makes sense when talking about Cam Newton -vs- Aaron Rodgers (as was done last week) because Cam is younger and has such appealing upside and incredibly high ceiling. However, in this situation, both are extremely young and all of the upside and incredibly high ceiling is with Calvin Johnson, not A.J. Green

 

[CentralPA]

If it wasn't for Calvin, I think this could be a discussion to have. There is no value in taking Green over what Green could be one day, when Calvin has so much of his career left. Calvin has physical tools that Green simply never will. I don't think Green will ever be the player Calvin is, but that is simply my opinion. After Calvin, I wouldn't question anyone taking Green. I think he is clearly in the top 5 mix.

To be clear, I'm not advising to take him OVER Calvin in a startup. Their pricetags are different.Is it warranted though?

No. Calvin was mired with one of the most awful situations possibly imaginable through his first several years in the league and STILL will likely outperform what A.J. Green will do in his first couple years (don't forget how nice Calvin's second year was with a poo poo platter of QB's throwing to him and a dung pile of talent surrounding him). A.J. Green has the benefit of what looks to be at the very least a competent NFL QB throwing to him (even though he is a rookie), as well as a competent running game (far from great, but far from the trash the Detroit Lions rolled out for Calvin's first several years). While those will help him, if that changes, I don't believe he can do what Calvin has already proven he can do in a terrible situation.I think the discussion is warranted starting at "who is the #2 dynasty WR?" but believe it is utterly silly and not even close to warranted to begin comparing A.J. Green to Calvin. This kind of argument kind of, sort of makes sense when talking about Cam Newton -vs- Aaron Rodgers (as was done last week) because Cam is younger and has such appealing upside and incredibly high ceiling. However, in this situation, both are extremely young and all of the upside and incredibly high ceiling is with Calvin Johnson, not A.J. Green

Eh, I agree the Calvin had less to work with and that he has more talent but to say he will far and away be a much better WR than Green is a little premature. Time will only tell. I think Green though is a Top 5, possibly Top 3 wideout going forward.

 

[Concept Coop]

If it wasn't for Calvin, I think this could be a discussion to have. There is no value in taking Green over what Green could be one day, when Calvin has so much of his career left. Calvin has physical tools that Green simply never will. I don't think Green will ever be the player Calvin is, but that is simply my opinion. After Calvin, I wouldn't question anyone taking Green. I think he is clearly in the top 5 mix.

To be clear, I'm not advising to take him OVER Calvin in a startup. Their pricetags are different.Is it warranted though?

If the question is - Is Green the dynasty #1? - that entails valuing him over Calvin.But, I do think the price difference is well justified. Calvin is only 3 years older than Green - the potential that Green becomes a younger version of Megatron, does not outweigh the value of the sure thing, Calvin. And again, I think they are on different worlds physically. Green absolutely has the physical skills to be the best WR in the NFL, if his talents translate or evolve into that. So it's not a knock on Green. I just won't bank on it yet. But, honestly, the more I think about it, the more I really like your stance on Green. After Calvin, the next tier not solidified. Dez, Wallace, Nicks, et cetera, are not traditional top 3 dynasty WRs.

 

[doowain]

all of the upside and incredibly high ceiling is with Calvin Johnson, not A.J. Green

I respectfully disagree, but curious as to why you feel this way? Being a physical monster doesn't equate to consistent studly production. See Davis, Vernon.I'm also discouraged with Calvin's history of nagging injuries and the ability for teams to gameplan him out of the offense.

 

[Concept Coop]

And, I think Calvin is actually the value pick, early in round one. Green is not a value pick late in round one, early round 2. I would rather wait and see who fell out of:

Green

Julio

Dez

Wallace

Hakeem

Fitz

 

[Multiple Scores]

I don't get how Dez is in the mix for #1 WR and Mike Wallace is not. I would take Calvin @ 1, Wallace @ 2, then to me it's murky, Green might go at the 3 spot.

 

[doowain]

I don't get how Dez is in the mix for #1 WR and Mike Wallace is not. I would take Calvin @ 1, Wallace @ 2, then to me it's murky, Green might go at the 3 spot.

Dez? Did you miss the title of the thread?

 

[Multiple Scores]

I don't get how Dez is in the mix for #1 WR and Mike Wallace is not. I would take Calvin @ 1, Wallace @ 2, then to me it's murky, Green might go at the 3 spot.

Dez? Did you miss the title of the thread?

I know it's about Green. To quote you "There is a short list of names you could throw into the Top 5 mix (Calvin, Andre, Fitz, Nicks, Dez, etc)."To be honest I didn't notice the "etc" there. Disregard, and Green is very high on my list too so I'm not against the premise of your thread.

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

It's an interesting argument. I'd love to see what Green would do with the abundance of targets that Calvin has and will continue to enjoy. Calvin will most likely out produce him but based on where both will be selected, Green will be the better value by far. Green may also suffer in comparison to a better cast around him then Calvin. Calvin still has no run game to speak of, an inferior TE and defense which for WR fantasy purposes hinders Green in comparison and production, at least for the short term. Calvin benefits from being far and away the top option for the Lions and they continually build the plan around him. That may not be the case with Green though he's already shown great potential to warrant that.

 

[Art Vandalay]

People here are blinded by Calvin. Green is ALREADY the more talented reciever. He adjusted better to the ball in the air better then anyone I have ever seen. His speed seems top notch (Dalton under throwing him) an dhis routes are smoother then calvin with his bulky body. Cavlin currently has been forcefed short TD's by Stafford which Dalton can and will do just as easily to AJ going forward.

People should not sleep on Mr Green He is the real deal.

 

[Concept Coop]

Calvin will most likely out produce him but based on where both will be selected, Green will be the better value by far.

I disagree with this. Calvin is the clear #1. After him, there is a tier of 4-5 guys. You pay the price for the difference in tier. Calvin is more valuable than the #2 by more than Green is compared to the others in his tier. If he is valued as #2, and drafted as such, he is not a value pick, IMO.

 

[alg]

I don't think we can have this discussion without bringing in the QB's. Stafford to Calvin will always be more appalling. Dalton, while performing admirably, has received much criticism here on his long-ball. That will continue to lower his ceiling.

 

[Concept Coop]

People here are blinded by Calvin. Green is ALREADY the more talented reciever. He adjusted better to the ball in the air better then anyone I have ever seen. His speed seems top notch (Dalton under throwing him) an dhis routes are smoother then calvin with his bulky body. Cavlin currently has been forcefed short TD's by Stafford which Dalton can and will do just as easily to AJ going forward.People should not sleep on Mr Green He is the real deal.

Talent is a subjective term and useless in this conversation, in this context. Sure, if Green was the physical freak that Calvin is, he would likely be the better player. But he is not, and never will be. I'll gladly trade the little things Green does better for the body, leaping ability, strength, and sub 4.4 speed of Calvin. You are going overboard here. Best body control you have ever seen?If I am understanding you, Calvin scores because he is forced the ball? Green would produce the same, if not more, if forced the ball as much? That is a big statement and a bit on the extreme.

 

[Max Power]

I'd still take Calvin over Green, but a case could be made for Green.

I think Green can go up and get the ball better than Calvin, but Calvin plays faster and stronger. Going after the deep ball these guys are the same, however... I've seen Calvin catch a slant pass throw down the CB covering him and outrun the safety in pursuit. Until I see Green do this, I'd have to side with CJ.

That said, I'd still draft Green over Fitz, Nicks, Bryant, Wallace, Brit and Julio.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think Green can go up and get the ball better than Calvin.

This is only accurate if you ignore the fact that Calving can go up to places that Green can't. In the spaces that they both can occupy - maybe. Although I would still give the edge to Calvin, with his strength.

 

[Herm23]

all of the upside and incredibly high ceiling is with Calvin Johnson, not A.J. Green

I respectfully disagree, but curious as to why you feel this way? Being a physical monster doesn't equate to consistent studly production. See Davis, Vernon.I'm also discouraged with Calvin's history of nagging injuries and the ability for teams to gameplan him out of the offense.

He is vastly superior from a physical standpoint (which is saying something because Green has great physical attributes), which is most of the reason. This isn't Vernon Davis- Calvin is in the process of proving he is an ultra elite, ultra special player for the 3rd year now and the years he didn't perform at that level can be attributed to the horrid situation surrounding him and injuries. As a matter of fact, I will take that a step further- in the only year that Calvin Johnson has had a legitimate starting quarterback throwing him the ball for a season (hint: this is the first year he has ever had that), he is the WR1, being universally regarded as the best receiver in football, and is on pace for 1,456 yards and 16 touchdowns. While the injuries are a concern, and I found myself thinking he felt a bit brittle and easily taken down by injury due to his size and the impact when he finishes his runs, falls to the turf on a jump ball, etc..., he has been healthy for most of 2 straight seasons now.The game planning Calvin out of the offense is something I consider on the outside realm of valid, but only because teams are paying Randy Moss-like attention to him now and I don't think he is as talented as Moss was, naturally making it difficult to shred Moss-like attention regularly. However, I think more of the problem is that the team doesn't force feed it to him like they could and they also miss opportunities. Just last week, despite only having a stat line of 6 receptions and 69 yards, he beat a TRIPLE TEAM to get open deep and should have scored a 40+ yard touchdown, except Stafford badly under threw it and ended up causing a penalty instead of a touchdown. I also think Calvin can do a better job of running more precise routes and demanding the ball more often. Also, let's not lose perspective, his recent "slide" as you put it still has him averaging 5.5 receptions and 72 yards per game over the last 4 games. That isn't great, but is not out of line with production from other elite receivers, particularly given the position and the propensity for receivers to have mediocre stat lines for stretches of the season (every receiver, even Moss and Rice in their record breaking years, goes through stretches of mediocre production. It's the nature of the position- way too dependent on other factors to turn in dominant numbers every week).However, the upside comes from the fact that Calvin is in the process of turning in a 1,400+ yard, 16 touchdown season and most everyone would agree there are several things both he and his team can do to IMPROVE his production. What are the odds we say similar things of A.J. Green if he ever turns in a season like that? I would say slim, at best.

 

[doowain]

I think Green can go up and get the ball better than Calvin.

This is only accurate if you ignore the fact that Calving can go up to places that Green can't. In the spaces that they both can occupy - maybe. Although I would still give the edge to Calvin, with his strength.

While this may be true, it's those same plays where Calvin mistimes his jump (based on his inferior ball skills) and has been injured falling on his hip/back/butt. We've all seen it. He doesn't win nearly enough jump balls as he should given his size.

 

[Banger]

I have Green and I'd sell him 100 times out of 100 to get Calvin straight up...any other wr probably not. Hell he's the 10th overall in his rookie season and he missed a game.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

People just admitted this year that Calvin was the concensus #1 WR in dynasty...your trying to take it away from him already???? lol

 

[Concept Coop]

I think Green can go up and get the ball better than Calvin.

This is only accurate if you ignore the fact that Calving can go up to places that Green can't. In the spaces that they both can occupy - maybe. Although I would still give the edge to Calvin, with his strength.

While this may be true, it's those same plays where Calvin mistimes his jump (based on his inferior ball skills) and has been injured falling on his hip/back/butt. We've all seen it. He doesn't win nearly enough jump balls as he should given his size.

Very true. Although, I think the injury thing is being played up a bit much. In FF, produciton is the bottom line. Critique Cavlin all you want. Some of it is justified, especially when we start looking at fundamentals. But Calvin is the biggest threat to score fantasy points at his position, every weej. Seeing as how he is 26 years old, he is the clear #1 in my book.

 

[Max Power]

I think Green can go up and get the ball better than Calvin.

This is only accurate if you ignore the fact that Calving can go up to places that Green can't. In the spaces that they both can occupy - maybe. Although I would still give the edge to Calvin, with his strength.

While this may be true, it's those same plays where Calvin mistimes his jump (based on his inferior ball skills) and has been injured falling on his hip/back/butt. We've all seen it. He doesn't win nearly enough jump balls as he should given his size.

I was pretty much about to post the same thing. Calvin gets his hands on a lot of balls that he doesn't bring down. Granted sometimes thats in double and triple coverage, but it just seems like if Green touches the ball, ITS HIS!

 

[FreeBaGeL]

People here are blinded by Calvin. Green is ALREADY the more talented reciever. He adjusted better to the ball in the air better then anyone I have ever seen. His speed seems top notch (Dalton under throwing him) an dhis routes are smoother then calvin with his bulky body. Cavlin currently has been forcefed short TD's by Stafford which Dalton can and will do just as easily to AJ going forward.

People should not sleep on Mr Green He is the real deal.

Green is the more skilled receiver.Calvin is the more talented receiver.

 

[Grahamburn]

Let me know when defensive coordinators double team A.J. Green inside the 5 yard line like the Saints did Sunday night. I've never seen anything like that.

That should let everyone know right there how much of a matchup nightmare Calvin Johnson is for a defense. Until A.J. Green starts putting up Calvin Johnson numbers he's not going to face that kind of coverage. When/if he does start facing that coverage, will he still be this productive? Which is to say, less productive than Calvin has been.

I'd be willing to bet A.J. Green will never have a more productive season than Calvin Johnson for at least the next 5-7 seasons.

For several years now everyone has known how to shut the Lions down. You have to shut Calvin Johnson down. He's been the only weapon on that offense for his entire career. Yet, it still hasn't been done. Now that he isn't the only weapon on offense he can't be stopped, is the #1 WR overall in most leagues, and there is still room for improvement on this offense. Scary.

 

[FF Ninja]

Calvin played 15 games his rookie year, but he was playing through a lingering back injury for 3/4ths of the season. I wouldn't put too much stock in his rookie numbers and I surely wouldn't draw any conclusions from comparing those stats to someone else's rookie stats.

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

Calvin will most likely out produce him but based on where both will be selected, Green will be the better value by far.

I disagree with this. Calvin is the clear #1. After him, there is a tier of 4-5 guys. You pay the price for the difference in tier. Calvin is more valuable than the #2 by more than Green is compared to the others in his tier. If he is valued as #2, and drafted as such, he is not a value pick, IMO.

He's a value if we're already comparing them and you're getting Green 2 rounds later, which you are. And players will still add something in trade to get Calvin if trading Green.I also don't see the huge difference in production in comparison to Calvin. Mike Wallace has also proven to be the better value then Calvin based on draft spot/production, and many an owner would take Green over Wallace, so the real and perceived value is an argument and makes them both a value over Calvin.

 

[Dez]

NO

 

[Max Power]

People here are blinded by Calvin. Green is ALREADY the more talented reciever. He adjusted better to the ball in the air better then anyone I have ever seen. His speed seems top notch (Dalton under throwing him) an dhis routes are smoother then calvin with his bulky body. Cavlin currently has been forcefed short TD's by Stafford which Dalton can and will do just as easily to AJ going forward.

People should not sleep on Mr Green He is the real deal.

Green is the more skilled receiver.Calvin is the more talented receiver.

I think you have define Talented vs skilled to me.I'd think if you had the "talent" switch bodies... Green in Calvin's shell would be better than Calvin in Green's shell.

 

[Concept Coop]

Calvin will most likely out produce him but based on where both will be selected, Green will be the better value by far.

I disagree with this. Calvin is the clear #1. After him, there is a tier of 4-5 guys. You pay the price for the difference in tier. Calvin is more valuable than the #2 by more than Green is compared to the others in his tier. If he is valued as #2, and drafted as such, he is not a value pick, IMO.

He's a value if we're already comparing them and you're getting Green 2 rounds later, which you are. And players will still add something in trade to get Calvin if trading Green.I also don't see the huge difference in production in comparison to Calvin. Mike Wallace has also proven to be the better value then Calvin based on draft spot/production, and many an owner would take Green over Wallace, so the real and perceived value is an argument and makes them both a value over Calvin.

By the time startups startup, Green will not be a 3rd round pick. He went in the 3rd round in a lot of drafts before the season started.My statement is under the belief that Green is being drafted late in round 1 or early in round 2, which he will be. Dez was a late first, early second in many startups this year, and Green has proven more and has as much buzz as Dez did, if not more. Wallace and Green are not a better value if their tier is bigger than Calvin's. Calvin is in his own tier, in my mind. Why take Green late first when, odds are, one of the following are going to fall to late 2nd? Green, Jones, Wallace, Bryant, Fitzgerald, Nicks.

 

[The Man With No Name]

What really makes Green's season look impressive is the good pass defenses he has faced(in my non ppr league)-

Ranks faced- 5,8,16,22,9,18,18,15,3,7(dnp),1,2 to date.

Calvin this season just for comparison- 24,19,29,13,26,21,24,19,29,16,31,29 to date.

Not that it means anything. Any #1 wr should be putting up good numbers with the Lions schedule. Likely not as good as Calvin though. He is a stud.

(Those numbers are the team rank as of that game.)

 

[cvnpoka]

People here are blinded by Calvin. Green is ALREADY the more talented reciever. He adjusted better to the ball in the air better then anyone I have ever seen. His speed seems top notch (Dalton under throwing him) an dhis routes are smoother then calvin with his bulky body. Cavlin currently has been forcefed short TD's by Stafford which Dalton can and will do just as easily to AJ going forward.People should not sleep on Mr Green He is the real deal.

all of this may be true, well no its not, but if it was, it still wouldnt matter. ill take the guy that projects for 160 targets, plays in dome, in a division with standard defenses over the guy on a run preferring team getting 120 targets, in cold weather vs 2 of the toughest d's of the era.

 

[cvnpoka]

People just admitted this year that Calvin was the concensus #1 WR in dynasty...your trying to take it away from him already???? lol

oh man, that reminds me of the calvin vs roddy thread last yr. im sure there are some lololers in there if we look back on it.

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

Calvin will most likely out produce him but based on where both will be selected, Green will be the better value by far.

I disagree with this. Calvin is the clear #1. After him, there is a tier of 4-5 guys. You pay the price for the difference in tier. Calvin is more valuable than the #2 by more than Green is compared to the others in his tier. If he is valued as #2, and drafted as such, he is not a value pick, IMO.

He's a value if we're already comparing them and you're getting Green 2 rounds later, which you are. And players will still add something in trade to get Calvin if trading Green.I also don't see the huge difference in production in comparison to Calvin. Mike Wallace has also proven to be the better value then Calvin based on draft spot/production, and many an owner would take Green over Wallace, so the real and perceived value is an argument and makes them both a value over Calvin.

By the time startups startup, Green will not be a 3rd round pick. He went in the 3rd round in a lot of drafts before the season started.My statement is under the belief that Green is being drafted late in round 1 or early in round 2, which he will be. Dez was a late first, early second in many startups this year, and Green has proven more and has as much buzz as Dez did, if not more. Wallace and Green are not a better value if their tier is bigger than Calvin's. Calvin is in his own tier, in my mind. Why take Green late first when, odds are, one of the following are going to fall to late 2nd? Green, Jones, Wallace, Bryant, Fitzgerald, Nicks.

I get your point if they had the upside and current value that Green offers. Nicks and Fitz still go within 5 or 6 picks of Calvin, late 1st, not for me. Dez or Jones aren't anywhere close for me in comparison to Green but some will value them so. Wallace would be. At this point it's basically coming to each of our own opinions and what your preference may be

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I get that AJ Green is a very talented WR, and he's having a very good year. I'll be even more impressed if he does it again next year when he starts getting the "Calvin coverage."

I'd take Jennings, Wallace, Megatron, and Fitz ahead of him in a startup. All have more than a handful of years of high end production ahead of them, and have proven it they can do it over time. So #1? No. Somewhere between #5-#10? Yes.

 

[johnadams]

On the surface, this is an interesting debate, but once you look at the numbers, you really have to think that AJ Green will be better statistically than Calvin and be so starting next year. Calvin takes this hands down simply because of the known of Calvin vs. the unknown of AJ. Here are some numbers.

1) To me, it's about separation, not standing. From a ppg standpoint in PPR settings, Calvin is number 2 behind Welker. But the fourth player, Jennings, is 3.7 points behind (I'm counting Cruz as number three as his average once the first two games are removed is right with Calvin. I'm also not counting Britt due to limited sample size) AJ Green's position at number 8 is great, especially for a rookie, but using the same separation of 3.7 ppg, there are 18 players in the mix (the difference between Calvin and Jennings at number four with one player in between (Cruz) is the same as the difference between AJ Green and Nate Washington at number 26 with 15 players in between. The current difference between Calvin and Green (number 2 to number 7) is equivalent to the difference between number AJ Green and Lance Moore (WR31). Despite having a very good year, Green has a lot more than just 5 places to make up.

2) Offensive philosophy/supporting cast. DET looks locked as a pass heavy team with a statistically strong QB for the foreseeable future. CIN is tougher to figure. It seems that they will be a better passing team as Dalton/Green get more experience, but that doesn't mean they'll be putting up big stats. I think they eventually will, but it's not as certain as DET. I also think that Dalton will be a very good NFL QB for years, but right now, I'd rather have Stafford. Again, it's not that CIN/Dalton, etc. won't make the transition, it's that it's not a certainty.

Obviously, a lot depends on how you value a guy. Personally, I look at the immediate one to two year window as 50% of my valuation in dynasty and typically placing 90% of a guy's value on the next five year window. I also value the known over potential more. For the record, Green is definitely a top five WR in dynasty in my book, though. It's just that Calvin is so far and away the number 1 guy that I'm not going to get someone hoping that he matches Calvin. And unless Green gets a QB of Peyton caliber, I don't see Green surpassing Calvin. Matching, maybe, but surpassing is too much to expect.

 

[cvnpoka]

DET looks locked as a pass heavy team with a statistically strong QB for the foreseeable future. CIN is tougher to figure. It seems that they will be a better passing team as Dalton/Green get more experience, but that doesn't mean they'll be putting up big stats

from a dynasty perspective, there is quite a bit of risk banking on the bengals to remain this efficient in the passing game. their oc will be gone withing a few yrs. gruden is already getting linked to open gigs around the league. i surely wouldnt trust marvin and brown to find a replacement capable of maximizing these assets.

 

[shnikies]

I don't get how Dez is in the mix for #1 WR and Mike Wallace is not. I would take Calvin @ 1, Wallace @ 2, then to me it's murky, Green might go at the 3 spot.

Is Wallace even leading his own team in targets? I don't think he's nearly as capable of a possession receiver as CJ or Green making him less consistent.

 

[Steed]

Calvin this season just for comparison- 24,19,29,13,26,21,24,19,29,16,31,29 to date.

Those defensive rankings are there b/c Calvin put them there.

 

[Hendo]

People here are blinded by Calvin. Green is ALREADY the more talented reciever. He adjusted better to the ball in the air better then anyone I have ever seen. His speed seems top notch (Dalton under throwing him) an dhis routes are smoother then calvin with his bulky body. Cavlin currently has been forcefed short TD's by Stafford which Dalton can and will do just as easily to AJ going forward.People should not sleep on Mr Green He is the real deal.

HAHAHAHA.... no

 

[The Man With No Name]

Calvin this season just for comparison- 24,19,29,13,26,21,24,19,29,16,31,29 to date.

Those defensive rankings are there b/c Calvin put them there.

 

[fantasizing]

A.J. Green is the next Randy Moss.

 

[EBF]

Not #1, but in the top 5. I wasn't a huge fan of his when he was coming into the league, but I'm sold now. He has great hands and ball skills. He'll never be a huge threat after the catch, but it doesn't really matter because he's so good at winning battles downfield.

 

[jurb26]

Not #1, but in the top 5. I wasn't a huge fan of his when he was coming into the league, but I'm sold now. He has great hands and ball skills. He'll never be a huge threat after the catch, but it doesn't really matter because he's so good at winning battles downfield.

Green is already a very good threat after the catch. I'm not sure where that opinion comes from?One thing that seems to be lost in every AJ Green thread I see is just how bad Dalton is at throwing the deep ball to Green. Green could easily have 6 - 8 more long TDs this year if Dalton would throw the deep pass accurately. Most see Dalton as a good thing for Green. Personally, I see Dalton holding him back right now. That's not to say Dalton is a poor QB. He's a good NFL QB. He just doesn't happen to throw the deep ball well and that is certainly a detriment to Green's fantasy potential at the moment.

 

[nysportsfan]

I think Green can go up and get the ball better than Calvin.

This is only accurate if you ignore the fact that Calving can go up to places that Green can't. In the spaces that they both can occupy - maybe. Although I would still give the edge to Calvin, with his strength.

While this may be true, it's those same plays where Calvin mistimes his jump (based on his inferior ball skills) and has been injured falling on his hip/back/butt. We've all seen it. He doesn't win nearly enough jump balls as he should given his size.

Green was injured coming down with a ball too, no?

 

[johnadams]

What really makes Green's season look impressive is the good pass defenses he has faced(in my non ppr league)-Ranks faced- 5,8,16,22,9,18,18,15,3,7(dnp),1,2 to date.Calvin this season just for comparison- 24,19,29,13,26,21,24,19,29,16,31,29 to date. Not that it means anything. Any #1 wr should be putting up good numbers with the Lions schedule. Likely not as good as Calvin though. He is a stud.(Those numbers are the team rank as of that game.)

Pass Def rankings is a pretty weak case and probably actually Calvin wins for short to medium term value. It's probably better to wait for final stats as Cincy still has two NFC West opponents, but CIN and DET both pulled NFC West as one of their out of division groups, so four games are pretty much a wash. Factor in that DET three division mates are ranked 31, 28 and 26 while CIN's are 3, 4, and 5 and it points to a big time 6 game advantage for Calvin in terms of opposition, at least in the medium term. It does speak to Green's ability that he's putting up good numbers in such a tough division, but as far as future match-ups, Calvin wins.

 

[Drop]

I think it's worth noting that Joe Haden does a really nice job of covering AJ Green and they play twice a year.

Megatron is a different beast altogether though, his ceiling will give you nosebleeds. Looking at both players as a function of their QBs it's my conclusion that Megatron is more likely to do incredibly great things given his attributes and situation, things we haven't seen in the NFL before. On top of that we know what he can do in a bad situation. It's already well documented and very impressive.

To guess how AJ Green will handle the evolution of team defenses against him is very tough, but we've seen how Megatron adapts. He's very far ahead of AJ Green in terms of competitive evolution and physical evolution as well. Which says a lot because AJ Green is freakish in his own right, but he's no Megatron. The games within the game are being redefined in Detroit, not Cincinnati.

In it's natural state the AJ Green has a known enemy already, the Joe Haden. Nothing in the universe is known to stop a Megatron. Perhaps divine intervention from the hand of Tebow could do it, but we can only go on faith alone to conclude that and we may never know...

 

[jurb26]

I think it's worth noting that Joe Haden does a really nice job of covering AJ Green and they play twice a year.Megatron is a different beast altogether though, his ceiling will give you nosebleeds. Looking at both players as a function of their QBs it's my conclusion that Megatron is more likely to do incredibly great things given his attributes and situation, things we haven't seen in the NFL before. On top of that we know what he can do in a bad situation. It's already well documented and very impressive.To guess how AJ Green will handle the evolution of team defenses against him is very tough, but we've seen how Megatron adapts. He's very far ahead of AJ Green in terms of competitive evolution and physical evolution as well. Which says a lot because AJ Green is freakish in his own right, but he's no Megatron. The games within the game are being redefined in Detroit, not Cincinnati.In it's natural state the AJ Green has a known enemy already, the Joe Haden. Nothing in the universe is known to stop a Megatron. Perhaps divine intervention from the hand of Tebow could do it, but we can only go on faith alone to conclude that and we may never know...

There certainly are good reasons to rank Calvin ahead of Green but Haden doesn't seem to be one of them. Green was pretty shut down in his first game vs. Clev., only catching one pass on a blown coverage. I didn't see any of that game, not sure if you did. In his second outing vs. them he torched them to the tune of 3 receptions for 110 yds. I did watch this game and it should have been a lot worse. Green was open almost all game long and Dalton, as usual, missed him on at least 2 other deep balls. Seems like Green learned pretty quickly how to overcome that obstacle....