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Is Brandon Jacobs being completely overlooked and undervalued? (1 Viewer)

gianmarco

Footballguy
Now, granted, I've been a Jacobs fan in terms of fantasy football for a while. I, like many others, have soured on him. But, I keep reading comments in various threads how ineffective Jacobs has been, how poor of a runner he's been, etc. and I'm starting to wonder if we're all really failing to see what's truly there.

Before last year, Jacobs had 200+ carries in 2007 and 2008 and had a 5.0 ypc average both of those years. Those are not the #'s of an ineffective RB. In 2008, he tacked on 15 TDs to go along with his 1089 yards. He was RB12 that year (low end RB1). In 2007, even only scoring 6 TDs, he finished RB21 (low end RB2).

Last year, he had a woeful 3.7 ypc and again only scored 6 TDs. However, he ended up having arthroscopic knee surgery (which "went well") and it was then reported that he actually suffered a knee injury in the NYG opener. He states he regretted not taking care of it then. When you look at the situation, it's VERY possible that this injury did indeed limit him. To me, he ran timid and he lacked that "burst" he had the previous 2 years. Many theorized that his contract made him run lazy but I'm not convinced that's the case.

Either way, he's still only 27 (turning 28 this summer) and has very little "mileage" on him (for those that believe in mileage wear and tear). Also, the RB situation there seems relatively stable and I don't think the NYG will ever give the full time job to Bradshaw. Jacobs should be a lock again for ~200 carries and will still keep the GL work.

My point is that Jacobs is being valued criminally low at this point and he could be a very nice cheap pickup as a RB2/3 for your team. I think the discussion of his demise may definitely be exaggerated and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he put up another 1000/10 type season for the next couple years.

 
With great run blocking he was unstoppable. That's gone now, and the passing game is much better.

Jacobs is heading towards being only a TD vulture. I consider him basically undraftable now.

 
Two things: His age will scare many dynasty players (although it shouldn't), and the "what have you done lately" angle works against him. As much as many dynasty players want to think long term, much "redraft" type thinking enters into it. Jacobs had a bad 09 - hence, he will be undervalued.

I think a solid 1,000 / 10 season is not out of the question at all.

 
I'm always a bit skeptical when I hear the words 'I was hurt during the opener and should have taken some time off' after the season.

 
I agree with the thought on the mileage. I have read threads where people state a bruiser like him cannot sustain, but the truth is, this is not Eddie George getting like 1500 touches in a 5 year period. Guy split with Tiki early and was not abused when he was the main back. I do think the real concern is that when Toomer and Burress left, there was the thought the Giants would need to pund the ball. No one expected Steve Smith to do what he did (we hoped, but did not expect...remember Hixon went ahead of him in a lot of non-PPR drafts) and Manningham and Nix both showed flashes of "very goodness". Now when I think of a "passing team", at RB, I don't think of a pounder as the compliment (Jacobs), but more so of speed guys with hands (more like Bradshaw) to get those yards quickly when the defense is on its heels. If you think of bellcow brusing backs like George and Lewis, they never came with a passing offense. Not saying it can't be done, but teams seem to settle on quick and flashy or run it down your throat and frankly the Giants passing game is good enough where you do not need to beat the opponent into submission.

 
I'm always a bit skeptical when I hear the words 'I was hurt during the opener and should have taken some time off' after the season.
agreed. 15 weeks and then saying something. seems a bit odd... maybe he was just covering up for saying he was going to retire if he didn't average 4 ypc (or something like that).
 
I really liked the way he ran when healthy.....he was beast.....had that big catch and run against Dallas too, so I think he still has a ton of upside....I think a great but low canidate and a fantastic RB3 in redrafts....looks like NYG is becoming more of a passing team, so that is a concern, but that could be good if Jacobs comes back healthy and they have a balanced offense...personally I think he bounces back next year and starts looking more like the guy pre-2009.....I will be targeting him in many drafts because of where I thik you can get him, as I think most people will want to see his prodution increase before they get on board....and as we know in fantasy that is often too late.....being right on a guy like this "bouncing back" is often the kind of move that can win your league for you.....you have to take a few chances in your drafts and have a few picks that say "hey if this pans out, I'm golden".....I could see Jacobs being that kind of pick this year...

 
I disagree with the whole "mileage" claim and don't think it has ever been proven. In fact, I believe the exact opposite: a guy who has carried the ball a lot over many years without serious injury is likely to continue to play injury free. That's been what I have observed in 40 years of watching football.

Also, how many backs as big as jacobs have played late into their career? I think when you are carrying that much weight and running hard that it wears on you more than a more agile back who avoids tackles and is carrying less weight. 28 is not that old in general but for a guy who weights over 260 pounds it is. If he shows up to camp trimmed down to 240 pounds that will be a positive sign that he has another productive year or two left, but otherwise I think his fall could come fast.

 
He could be a decent RB2, that's a pretty low ceiling though especially as his floor is quite low.

I don't know where he's going in start up dyno's (am curious as I'm doing my first one in 3 years in June) but unless he's falling into the mid-late RB30's (at least) I'm not interested.

 
He could be a decent RB2, that's a pretty low ceiling though especially as his floor is quite low.I don't know where he's going in start up dyno's (am curious as I'm doing my first one in 3 years in June) but unless he's falling into the mid-late RB30's (at least) I'm not interested.
Granted, the startups Ive done so far this year all include college players, but Jacobs has been going in the RB40-46 range (probably equivalent to RB35-40 without college players).
 
He could be a decent RB2, that's a pretty low ceiling though especially as his floor is quite low.I don't know where he's going in start up dyno's (am curious as I'm doing my first one in 3 years in June) but unless he's falling into the mid-late RB30's (at least) I'm not interested.
Granted, the startups Ive done so far this year all include college players, but Jacobs has been going in the RB40-46 range (probably equivalent to RB35-40 without college players).
I think that's about right then, his lack of upside makes him a poor RB2.5 pick but if I had a team with 2-3 young guys with question marks rostered he'd fit in at that spot. A guy I don't feel good about starting, but someone I can lean on if my youth isn't ready/getting opportunities.
 
Bradshaw looked a lot better than him nursing foot/ankle injuries, if he is fully healthy this year, I see no reason he won't overtake Jacobs. The Giants were also giving Spiller a long look, and they're in a spot he could fall to - Im afraid the best days of Jacobs are behind him.

 
With great run blocking he was unstoppable. That's gone now, and the passing game is much better.Jacobs is heading towards being only a TD vulture. I consider him basically undraftable now.
How has the offensive line changed since 2008? I don't recall the Giants losing any offensive linemen. Can anyone verify this? Were there injuries last year?
It hasn't, which is a big reason why you should expect a decline until they young-up the line, line's age quickly.
 
I'm curious why the Giants hid Jacob's injury yet were very public about Bradshaw's hairline fractures in both ankles?

Let's not forget that big donkey just got paid last offseason. Lack of motivation perhaps?

 
MAC_32 said:
With great run blocking he was unstoppable. That's gone now, and the passing game is much better.Jacobs is heading towards being only a TD vulture. I consider him basically undraftable now.
How has the offensive line changed since 2008? I don't recall the Giants losing any offensive linemen. Can anyone verify this? Were there injuries last year?
It hasn't, which is a big reason why you should expect a decline until they young-up the line, line's age quickly.
The problem is wasn't any changes, it was just that Seubert and McKenzie have lost a step (McKenzie mostly injury-related). It was a great 2-3 year run with this line, but it's coming soon to be time where Beatty probably needs to get in the starting lineup with Diehl moving over. I personally see Bradshaw taking it to the next level this year -- maybe not necessarily overtaking Jacobs, but definitely more of a 2008 DWard type of role.
 
I've given up on expecting rebound seasons for RBs. It happens, but nearly enough for me to wager on it. Jacobs, Barber, Slaton, Forte, Lynch and LJ to some extent, all fall under the category for me as well. I might miss out on a guy like Addai who comes around every few years, but I'll hit on an up and coming player more often to make it worth it.

 
With great run blocking he was unstoppable. That's gone now, and the passing game is much better.Jacobs is heading towards being only a TD vulture. I consider him basically undraftable now.
Things got so bad last season that Coughlin seemed to have more trust in Bradshaw inside the 5 yard line, at least in a number of games.
 
I'll quote myself about how I saw the situation, as a fan who follows the Giants closely and follows all the games, earlier in the season:

He's running pretty much the same as he has in the past. It's about opportunities, play calls, and the offensive line.

Opportunites: Gilbride/Coughlin seem to go away from Jacobs just when he gets on a roll. Even when he has good YPC, he's just not getting enough carries. Also, and inexplicably, they seem to have favored Bradshaw at the goalline.

Play Calls: Gilbride/Coughlin have been giving Jacobs a majority of his runs to the outside instead of up the gut where he flourishes. Seems to make little sense but it came out that they were giving Ward's plays from last year to Jacobs.

Offensive Line: Just not playing that well. Not getting the push, especially on the inside, they did last year.

Overall, Jacobs is pretty much the same runner just without the holes and the (proper) opportunities of last year. Bad news is that might not chance much this year.
Add to that, Jacobs was apparently playing hurt.Other have said, well Bradshaw was hurt as well, and he did better. Well, they are different types of runners. Bradshaw can make his own hay as a quick cut runner where Jacobs needs an initial block, at least to the LOS, and then he is a force.

Going forward, I'd expect them to split the load with a bit of Ware, just signed his tender, and perhaps Brown and Johnson... unless Spiller falls in their lap.

Coughlin sees the value in keeping his backs fresh.

Edit to add: There is talk about shuffling the O-line this year with perhaps Diehl moving inside, Beatty entering the starting lineup and perhaps a high draft rookie being in the mix. Add to that Nicks being heathy and with a year of experience under his belt to open up the passing game and I think Jacobs may be a good buy low especially in non-PPR.

 
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Bradshaw looked a lot better than him nursing foot/ankle injuries, if he is fully healthy this year, I see no reason he won't overtake Jacobs. The Giants were also giving Spiller a long look, and they're in a spot he could fall to - Im afraid the best days of Jacobs are behind him.
Have to agree. I was very high on Jacobs going into last season -- his situation seemed ideal with Ward leaving town and he seemed like he had a chance to be a Top 5 back and approach 300 carries. The guy didn't top 100 yards in a game all season and only bettered 80 yards in a game three times. Not good. Even if does bounce back a bit, the fact is that the Giants just don't see him as a guy who will hold up with a full load, so they're always going to work someone else in with him, which really limits his upside. Bradshaw looks like a more dynamic, complete back and I don't think it would be a surprise if he has more value this season (again). I think we'll see a clear RBBC, with Ware and/or Andre Brown worked in, as well. I can see why Jacobs looks undervalued on paper, and I agree that his value is down, but I just don't know that he's a good play.
 
I disagree with the whole "mileage" claim and don't think it has ever been proven. In fact, I believe the exact opposite: a guy who has carried the ball a lot over many years without serious injury is likely to continue to play injury free. That's been what I have observed in 40 years of watching football.

Also, how many backs as big as jacobs have played late into their career? I think when you are carrying that much weight and running hard that it wears on you more than a more agile back who avoids tackles and is carrying less weight. 28 is not that old in general but for a guy who weights over 260 pounds it is. If he shows up to camp trimmed down to 240 pounds that will be a positive sign that he has another productive year or two left, but otherwise I think his fall could come fast.
actually, it has been proven in regards to 'big' RBs' and longevity.there are approx. 3-4 RBs in NFL history,at or over the weight of 250lbs, who've rushed for 1000 yards in a single season.

Heyward, Okoye(2x), Jacobs(2x)... not a single RB at that weight has ever run for 1000 yards , 3+ times in his career..not one.

that's not to say that Jacobs couldn't rush for 1000 this season, but he's extremely brittle, missing 10 games in past 4 seasons, and parts of many other games due to various scrapes and abrasions..

but watching the way he tip-toed his way to 835 yards last season, at a paltry 3.7 per clip , I'm not holding my breath that he'll return to a 5.0 avg or will rush for 1000 yards this season..

I think the Giants *might* draft a RB early this April, someone who'll be a potential starter right out of the gate..

 
NYG is not Drafting an RB early unless its a top talent that falls big time in the 2nd... they have to many problems and they just don't draft RBs early.

 
.. not a single RB at that weight has ever run for 1000 yards , 3+ times in his career..not one.
That's completely inaccurate.....Bettis did it half a dozen times at that weight(minimum).If anyone believes for a second that he was under 250 pounds at any point in his career after, say, 1995/1996 they are absolutely friggin' blind. Hell, he almost rushed for 1,000 yards in 2004 and he was probably a ham sandwich shy of three bills.That said, Brandon Jacobs isn't Jerome Bettis.Carry on.
 
MAC_32 said:
With great run blocking he was unstoppable. That's gone now, and the passing game is much better.Jacobs is heading towards being only a TD vulture. I consider him basically undraftable now.
How has the offensive line changed since 2008? I don't recall the Giants losing any offensive linemen. Can anyone verify this? Were there injuries last year?
It hasn't, which is a big reason why you should expect a decline until they young-up the line, line's age quickly.
The problem is wasn't any changes, it was just that Seubert and McKenzie have lost a step (McKenzie mostly injury-related). It was a great 2-3 year run with this line, but it's coming soon to be time where Beatty probably needs to get in the starting lineup with Diehl moving over. I personally see Bradshaw taking it to the next level this year -- maybe not necessarily overtaking Jacobs, but definitely more of a 2008 DWard type of role.
That was my point, not that the decline in 2009 was predictable, just that a decline at some point in the near future was. Good thing for the G Men this class is rich with o line talent, but Beatty developing is still most important.
 
Bradshaw looked a lot better than him nursing foot/ankle injuries, if he is fully healthy this year, I see no reason he won't overtake Jacobs. The Giants were also giving Spiller a long look, and they're in a spot he could fall to - Im afraid the best days of Jacobs are behind him.
So you think injury is the primary reason that Bradshaw never received 15 carries in a single game last year? Jacobs was injured too - if Bradshaw was dramatically outperforming him, why keep feeding Jacobs the ball? I'm surprised the folks continue to suggest that Bradshaw is due to overtake Jacobs when the coaches have demonstrated a clear preference for RBBC and a willingness to feed the ball to an underperforming Jacobs rather than Bradshaw. What split do you see this year? I'd expect at best a 50-50 split, which is more in line with their load in weeks 9-16.Jacobs' carriesWeek 9: 11Week 11: 12Week 12: 11Week 13: 13Week 14: 15Week 15: 16Total: 78 (13/game)**Note: I excluded week 16 since Jacobs left the game early and didn't play week 17.Bradshaw's carriesWeek 9: 14Week 11: 12Week 13: 7Week 14: 14Week 15: 9Week 16: 11Total: 67 (11/game)
 
Bradshaw looked a lot better than him nursing foot/ankle injuries, if he is fully healthy this year, I see no reason he won't overtake Jacobs. The Giants were also giving Spiller a long look, and they're in a spot he could fall to - Im afraid the best days of Jacobs are behind him.
So you think injury is the primary reason that Bradshaw never received 15 carries in a single game last year? Jacobs was injured too - if Bradshaw was dramatically outperforming him, why keep feeding Jacobs the ball? I'm surprised the folks continue to suggest that Bradshaw is due to overtake Jacobs when the coaches have demonstrated a clear preference for RBBC and a willingness to feed the ball to an underperforming Jacobs rather than Bradshaw. What split do you see this year? I'd expect at best a 50-50 split, which is more in line with their load in weeks 9-16.Jacobs' carriesWeek 9: 11Week 11: 12Week 12: 11Week 13: 13Week 14: 15Week 15: 16Total: 78 (13/game)**Note: I excluded week 16 since Jacobs left the game early and didn't play week 17.Bradshaw's carriesWeek 9: 14Week 11: 12Week 13: 7Week 14: 14Week 15: 9Week 16: 11Total: 67 (11/game)
Bradshaw had a cracked foot. And still played better than Jacobs. Not sure how you can glean anything either way from the number of carries considering both RBs were playing hurt.
 
Bradshaw had a cracked foot. And still played better than Jacobs. Not sure how you can glean anything either way from the number of carries considering both RBs were playing hurt.
Hey, fair enough. I'm just trying to bring facts to the discussion. Otherwise the discussion devolves into pure idle speculation.They were both hurt. In a material way. Jacobs was injured enough that he missed part of week 16 and all of week 17. Bradshaw played both games. Bradshaw dramatically outproduced Jacobs....who by his own admission got hurt week 1....so they were on a level playing field (both injured). The only evidence we have that Bradshaw will get more carries going forward is that the staff gave him a greater share the 2nd half of '09 than the 1st half.I'd love to hear a compelling rationale for why Bradshaw gets more carries.
 
I disagree with the whole "mileage" claim and don't think it has ever been proven. In fact, I believe the exact opposite: a guy who has carried the ball a lot over many years without serious injury is likely to continue to play injury free. That's been what I have observed in 40 years of watching football.

Also, how many backs as big as jacobs have played late into their career? I think when you are carrying that much weight and running hard that it wears on you more than a more agile back who avoids tackles and is carrying less weight. 28 is not that old in general but for a guy who weights over 260 pounds it is. If he shows up to camp trimmed down to 240 pounds that will be a positive sign that he has another productive year or two left, but otherwise I think his fall could come fast.
Don't bother. The urban myth about mileage sounds cooler than the fact that as guys get older they take longer to heal no matter how many hits they have taken over the years or the fact that guys that are used to the pounding tend to go longer than those that don't take a beating. It comes up multiple times every offseason, the study that showed guys with more "mileage" tended to run longer and more effectively shoots down all the low "mileage" arguments but a day later someone will say X player shoudl have a couple more good years because he was under utilized his first couple of years and has less mileage...

As for Jacobs, he also has the RBBC against him. I don't know if this was more prevalent last year because Jacobs was gimpy but it seemed like they relied on him less and the other players more. Maybe he's a buy low candidate, but maybe not. Not to mention they have a very crowded WR corps.

 
I'm not as sold on the severity of Jacobs week 1 injury. I'm not saying he dogged it or that he didn't get dinged but playting through pain is part of the NFL job requirement. I think Jacobs likely had some nagging pains but I'm not convinced that he had anything that would've caused his numbers to suffer the dropoff they did. I think Bradshaw played through worse injuries to both wheels and never brought it up as an excuse either.

I like Jacobs when he's rolling through the line gaining steam and has only a cornerback to beat to reach open field. I can't help but giggle at how bad it has to suck to be that corner that has to throw himself in Jake's way and hope he trips. However I don't really care for the stuff that comes out of his mouth and I also think he needs to focus more during the game and yap at the opposition less.

I think he has the potential to break 1,000 yards and hit 10 TD's. Even with last year's bad numbers his three year average is 1,000 yards and 8 TD's. Asking for 200 more yards and 2 more TD's from last year doesn't seem unreasonable. However I don't think we'll ever see a 1,300 yard 18 TD season from the guy. The Giants have enough talent in Bradshaw that he'll get touches. Gilbride inexplicably wanted to have Jacobs take on an increased role in the passing game. Those touches definitively should go to Bradshaw. He's got better hands and he's more elusive. The o-line is still good but isn't dominating the way it did two and three years ago. They can return to being a top unit with the injection of a high draft choice up front. I don't see Jacobs falling off the way Eddie George did at the end but I also don't see him being a workhorse or a yardage hog. He'll get some cheap TD's that will help his value and will be a nice depth play at RB but ideally shouldn't be relied upon as an everyweek starter.

 
I'm not as sold on the severity of Jacobs week 1 injury. I'm not saying he dogged it or that he didn't get dinged but playting through pain is part of the NFL job requirement. I think Jacobs likely had some nagging pains but I'm not convinced that he had anything that would've caused his numbers to suffer the dropoff they did. I think Bradshaw played through worse injuries to both wheels and never brought it up as an excuse either. I like Jacobs when he's rolling through the line gaining steam and has only a cornerback to beat to reach open field. I can't help but giggle at how bad it has to suck to be that corner that has to throw himself in Jake's way and hope he trips. However I don't really care for the stuff that comes out of his mouth and I also think he needs to focus more during the game and yap at the opposition less. I think he has the potential to break 1,000 yards and hit 10 TD's. Even with last year's bad numbers his three year average is 1,000 yards and 8 TD's. Asking for 200 more yards and 2 more TD's from last year doesn't seem unreasonable. However I don't think we'll ever see a 1,300 yard 18 TD season from the guy. The Giants have enough talent in Bradshaw that he'll get touches. Gilbride inexplicably wanted to have Jacobs take on an increased role in the passing game. Those touches definitively should go to Bradshaw. He's got better hands and he's more elusive. The o-line is still good but isn't dominating the way it did two and three years ago. They can return to being a top unit with the injection of a high draft choice up front. I don't see Jacobs falling off the way Eddie George did at the end but I also don't see him being a workhorse or a yardage hog. He'll get some cheap TD's that will help his value and will be a nice depth play at RB but ideally shouldn't be relied upon as an everyweek starter.
I think overall this is a solid post with the exception of the first couple lines. Playing through pain is one thing. But, the guy ended up having knee surgery to clean it out. Players play with pain all the time but most don't have surgery to fix that pain. So, I think his injury, while not devastating, was enough to warrant a clean out and I think it's completely reasonable that it affected him just enough to lose that bit of burst and drive and cause his production to fall.
 
I fully expect an increase in Jacobs performance.

But clearly Bradshaw will limits his opportunities and without know Jacobs' ADP it is hard to say if he is undervalued.

I would predict 700 yards and 8 TDs.

 
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Is he being overlooked and undervalued? Probably. Do I want him on my team or would I give up anything of value to acquire him? Probably not.

There's a chance he'll give some someone some decent production this year and next, but I'll let someone else find out.

 
Also, how many backs as big as jacobs have played late into their career?
All of them, I'd venture. I can't remember a single back missing the end of his own career.
How man y big power backs, guys over 250 pounds (Jacobs is 265), have played into their late 20s or early 30s? The only comparable guy I can think of is the Steeler's Jerome Bettis, who was 255 lbs and played well late into his 20s and had one good season in his 30s.
 
What do people see as upside?

225/1,050-1150 on the ground and about 8 TDs...what is the mystery here? He splits time or drives with Bradhsaw, the offense is not why NY lost last year, their defense and especially stopping the run was not good.

He is not a receiver at all...I don't like those type of backs in a pass oriented NFL world, just don't see a ton of upside here. Other guys you can have and likely get similar production in FF points are guys like...

Joeseph Addai, Beanie Wells, MB III, Ronnie Brown, he is in the area of those guys in my projections. I have Jacobs ranked @24 right now, low end RB2, better RB3.

 
What do people see as upside? 225/1,050-1150 on the ground and about 8 TDs...what is the mystery here? He splits time or drives with Bradhsaw, the offense is not why NY lost last year, their defense and especially stopping the run was not good. He is not a receiver at all...I don't like those type of backs in a pass oriented NFL world, just don't see a ton of upside here. Other guys you can have and likely get similar production in FF points are guys like... Joeseph Addai, Beanie Wells, MB III, Ronnie Brown, he is in the area of those guys in my projections. I have Jacobs ranked @24 right now, low end RB2, better RB3.
Not every player has to have top 10 upside (even though I think he's actually capable of that if he can pound in double digit TDs again). That doesn't mean a player is worthless. But, the point of this thread is that he's seemingly VERY undervalued at this point. He's being traded at 2nd round value. I'm guilty of it as well and I'm wondering if that's the right decision.
 
I live in Giants territory and saw most of their games. Jacobs just did not look like his old explosive self last year. Who knows if it was injuries or not. But that explosion was missing. I am nervous because backs his size have such short shelf lives.

 
What do people see as upside? 225/1,050-1150 on the ground and about 8 TDs...what is the mystery here? He splits time or drives with Bradhsaw, the offense is not why NY lost last year, their defense and especially stopping the run was not good. He is not a receiver at all...I don't like those type of backs in a pass oriented NFL world, just don't see a ton of upside here. Other guys you can have and likely get similar production in FF points are guys like... Joeseph Addai, Beanie Wells, MB III, Ronnie Brown, he is in the area of those guys in my projections. I have Jacobs ranked @24 right now, low end RB2, better RB3.
Not every player has to have top 10 upside (even though I think he's actually capable of that if he can pound in double digit TDs again). That doesn't mean a player is worthless. But, the point of this thread is that he's seemingly VERY undervalued at this point. He's being traded at 2nd round value. I'm guilty of it as well and I'm wondering if that's the right decision.
I'm talking redraft
 
I live in Giants territory and saw most of their games. Jacobs just did not look like his old explosive self last year. Who knows if it was injuries or not. But that explosion was missing. I am nervous because backs his size have such short shelf lives.
It seems that "burst" might be back. :shrug:
 

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