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When it comes to the goal line, Newton is better.Think betting against Newton shattering the rushing TD mark from a QB is a sucker bet.Only time will tell, but he is well on his way. Again, we don't know if it would have been sustainable for any of them. They didn't get that opportunity. Because I think Newton is better, I think he will. And, what is your guess? 4 a year? 5 a year?
Exactly - and I can remember when both Kordell and Culpepper were fantasy darlings and their future was talked about with the same level of enthusiasm. There is an NFL adage I remember hearing years ago that has so far has proven to be true - "There are a lot of young running QBs, but very few old ones." Perhaps Newton is different and will be the exception, but it is hard not to be skeptical for those of us who have been down this road before.
Again, I ask: when does Newton tear 3 knee ligaments? Becasue, Culpepper was on his way to being well worth the 1.01 most years.
Who knows? He may play a decade and never get hurt, or he may go down this season. Culpepper was wonderful to own while it lasted, but it didn't last and that is the risk one takes with running QBs, which should go into the equation of where they should be ranked.
Cam does haev a ways. But, Cam didn't have the benefit of season to sit and learn, or Randy Moss, or Minny's talent in general. What Cam has done as a passer alone has me very excited. He will work, learn, and improve. Heck, 400 yards in each of his first 2 games. A lot to be excited about, in my opinion.
What is the cutoff for the title "running QB"? Aaron Rodgers runs a lot more than the average NFL QB.Fair enough, if I were willing to lump Newton in a group titled "running QBs", but I'm not. I guess we shall see.
You're willing to give Newton the benefit of putting up the best running stats for a QB in the history of the NFL, but you're not willing to lump him in the group of running QBs when it comes to risk?
In regards to the bolded, you are actually 100% correct, in my opinion. In a post that was in part to make fun of some of the ridiculous hyperbole being thrown around in this thread, I fell back on some silly hyperbole myself. There aren't a lot of great options for a 1.01 pick, as right now there aren't very many sure fire hall of fame candidates playing that are in the right age window to warrant the pick. Outside of the 2 you named (Calvin and Rodgers), it gets dicey, although I still put Peterson there without blinking.That's part of the reason why this is a silly argument- there aren't a lot of players worth considering there and Cam is one of them, whether it's 1.01 or 1.02 or 1.03 or whatever. However, there is some hyperbole and some ridiculousness going on by some in this thread that I can only attribute to being enamored with the flashiness of Cam and the fact that he is new and relatively still unknown.
Yeah, and he got hurt last year on this play:http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81cd4963/Rodgers-suffers-concussion
I don't know the right estimate, but just an FYI -- what you are suggesting as an "average year" would be a regression from his rookie year...
Culpepper's downfall as a NFL QB has more to do about W-L than injuries. Carolina has problems on the other side of the ball but at some point the turnovers have to come down and the wins have to come up or the Brad Johnsons of the world will look like sensible alternatives.
If Vick is a bad thrower right now, so is Newton. Your use of career stats is disingenuous.
But it's not disingenuous to compare a rookie to a 10 year veteran?My point was that Cam as a rookie is well beyond where guys like Vick and Kordell were at that stage of their careers. His passing numbers are great...for a rookie.Vick's are mediocre...for a 10 year veteran.
But no further along than Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford, Ben Roethlisberger and Rick Mirer (just kidding, but it's close) were at that stage of their careers.
Not really seeing the similarities. Dalton is averaging a full yard less than Newton per pass attempt. 6.9 for Andy compared to 7.9 for Cam.Sam Bradford averaged 6.0 yards per attempt last season. Cam has a higher completion percentage and is averaging significantly more yards per toss. Roethlisberger was much more effective passing the ball as a rookie (albeit on far fewer attempts in a conservative offense on a much better team). He doesn't really belong in the discussion. Honestly, you sound like someone who drafted Bilal Powell over Cam in all his rookie drafts or something. It's just constant negativity at every turn. I mean, not everyone is going to like every player, but it's hard not to be impressed by what Newton is doing IMO.
Love this. Twenty minutes ago you were talking about McNair was not a rushing quarterback. Now that you were told that he was, Newton is just better.
Dalton is 7-4 and has more TD than INTs. Not really seeing the similarities either.
Doesn't help you to switch from hyperbole on Cam to hyperbole on me. I think he's a top 5 player but to ignore the special circumstances and unique risk at this point is absurd. IMO. Risk compared to a RB is negligible but there are at least 2 players with near 0 risk.
You're better than this. I haven't really seen too many people saying that he's not a first round start-up pick next year. The consensus is pretty much "we all love Cam." Depending on scoring system, for me he's anywhere from #2 to #4 overall, unless it's some odd system where QBs are totally devalued. Personally, I consider myself sky-high on the guy given that.You and a few others are predicting him to be the best running QB ever BY FAR, like doubling or more what anyone else has ever done in any other 5-year window in the history of the NFL. You're also considering it a given that he will continue developing into a good to great passer.Could he hit that upside? Sure. If you take him over Aaron Rodgers, you are betting that it WILL happen, because otherwise, you lose. And if Cam fails to develop, or regresses, or is just plain inconsistent as are most QBs dependent on rushing for their fantasy points, you lose HUGE. And actually, if Cam and Rodgers both hit their respective upsides, you still lose because Rodgers' upside is obviously 50 TDs.Really, what is really going on here is just more fascination with a shiny new toy.'EBF said:
As much as I hate to say it, the bolded portion is almost entirely correct. While I disagree with it, I understand the line of thought that values Cam Newton as the best option at 1.01 in a new dynasty league and don't believe that is where people are going entirely wrong. It's when people begin to REASONABLY EXPECT 40 touchdowns or more in a season that things enter into the realm of ridiculousness. If this was Cam Newton's 2nd season and he suddenly exploded, I tend to believe we wouldn't be seeing these ridiculous numbers and "what if" scenarios thrown around. However, since he is a rookie and still somewhat unknown, all the "what if he does this" and "what if this happens" and "what if he can improve this" starts popping up, which suddenly causes people to project him to not just break NFL records, but shatter them to such a level that nobody would ever come close again.This rookie effect is prevalent in all sports and what some people don't take into consideration is the fact that sometimes, people come into the pro game simply more ready, both physically and mentally, than most any other rookie. This doesn't mean they are going to have the same improvement curve as a typical rookie because they are already capable of handling the pro game. Lebron James was a classic example of this to me- based on his rookie season statistics and based on the fact that he came to the league straight out of high school and was only 18, some people began to reasonably expect him to be able to average 40+ points a game, 10+ rebounds a game, and 10+ assists a game for his career since he was so young and was obviously going to improve like a typical high school player would. However, reality showed us that Lebron was incredibly prepared for the NBA for a high school player, both mentally and physically, and while he absolutely improved, he never had a chance to reach the ridiculous "what if" scenarios some were beginning to expect because he didn't have as much room for improvement as a typical high school player.
If one were to reread this thread, neither you, nor myself (and a couple others) ever disagreed with the premise that Newton is a top five pick in any start up draft (I would say about 1.03 or 1.04). The point we were trying to make is that the tone here is almost from the standpoint that he is already penciled in as a future member of the FF HOF - we have just been trying to add a little perspective. As was mentioned, we have been down this road before with other QBs that after their first year or two in the league were given the same over-the-top predictions of future greatness (but ultimately were disappointments to their owners).
This is a poor comparison because you're applying what people are worried about happening with Cam to the guys it already happened to.Forget the first 3 years. The first 3 years aren't the point because the fear with Cam is predicated on a running QB that shows promise passing the ball but either regresses or fails to improve.'EBF said:
Not to mention the two guys mentioned in the quoted post of the post you quoted? huh?
Fixed the above in red for you. Kordell and Vick were never believed to be as strong passers in their rookie year as Cam is showing. Culpepper was fantastic in his first year starting, and Cam putting up those numbers would be very strong.
See my post above--your argument is incorrect. He is also showing more than Dalton, Bradford, and Lol Mirer showed. I don't think anyone minds him being compared as a passer to Ben.
I'd love for Cam to end up like Culpepper, minus the injury of course. But we do have to remember that C-pep was in his 2nd year, and had the 2nd best WR in NFL history, as well as an 8-time pro-bowler three time HOF finalist lining up as WR2. Newton doesn't have those two spectacular red-zone options--therefore he is their best redzone option. He won't approach C-pep's 40 total TDs from that year, but 30 total TDs and 500+ more passing yards are encouraging.
Nah, not really. If you want to harp on YPA and ignore INT and W-L, you're trying to abuse stats to fit your argument. There's nothing strong to differentiate one from the either. Including Mirer, who set rookie records for completions and yards back in the day.Bradford and Dalton are interesting because they were both shotgun QBs in college but both have been made to adjust to a pro style. It makes their equivalent success more impressive. Their snaps from shotgun is at or below the NFL average. Newton is about 65%. He's not being forced to learn. It will be interesting if he ever is, or what changes to the offense have to be made to make Carolina a better team.
If you want to use how good a team and how strong their defense around a rookie QB is more important than YPA, that is certainly your right to have this belief and opinion. I think you overlooking this important stat is a big mistake in projecting his abilities going forward. He will certainly need to improve on his INT %, but the rest of his numbers dwarf those other guys.
How good was STL's defense last year? Just another reason for skepticism: Cam's numbers are buoyed right now by those 2 first games when no one knew what was about to hit them. They were preparing for Tebow and they got Culpepper. His YPA is 7.25 if you throw out those 2 games.How many more 400 yard passing games do you think he'll have in the next year or two?
I agree, I have Cam and would certainly trade him for Rodgers. However, people arguing that his season is similar to Dalton, Bradford, Mirer, Kordell and Vick are being silly and wrong.
Cam is throwing a few more INTs than Bradford did because he is pushing the ball downfield. 6 YPA is Captain Checkdown stuff. I agree there's a tradeoff there but I still think Cam's success has been more impressive strictly from a passing perspective. When you add in his rushing numbers it sounds pretty silly to say that Bradford's sucess has been "equivalent" to Cam's.
That is a ridiculous metric to hold any QB to. Steve Young and Tom Brady both have exactly 3 career 400 yard games. Favre and Elway had 2 each. Only 26 players in the history of the NFL have more than Cam's 2. So, in the next year or two, I'd say it's a safe bet that Cam will have 1 or 0 more 400 yard passing games. But it is a meaningless point.Oh, and Sam's YPA this year is 7.24 if you include only his best two games.
We aren't adding in the rushing numbers. We aren't talking about his season as a whole. We are arguing his success purely as a passer based on a statement made by on the Cam side a page or so ago.
You do know why that is, right?
How many 11 YPA games do you expect him to have in the next year or two? The point stands that his YPA is inflated based on those first 2 games. How many 300 yard passing games do you expect him to have, because it's been a while.
The suggestion that a player will continue to be a threat running the football - a player who is likely to break the NFL record as a rookie - is not "silly hyperbole", by any means. Cam is having one of the best fantasy season ever for a QB, as a rookie, with no camp. If pointing that out is silly hyperbole, Webster's and I have the wrong definition. Also, the Panthers are using Cam in a way that Culpepper never was. You point to the last few games, where Cam's touchdown runs were longer as evidence. That is silly, considering 2 things:1. If Cam hands to ball of, on an option read, he is still in some form a goal line back.2. The frequency of which a team has the ball within 4 yards of the goal line varies. Even if we assume his rushing numbers come back down to earth, there is clearly room for improvement in the passing game. Hyperbole?'Herm23 said:
For the record, I'm not in the Cam at 1.01 camp. I agree we need to see more games to have a better grasp on what to expect in the future. I have no idea how many more 300 or 400 yard passing games there will be. But nothing that happens next year will change the fact that Cam is having the most impressive rookie season by a QB ever.And if we're picking and choosing certain games and plays to count and not count, then sure, Cam can be whatever you want him to be. Cam has had plenty of great games since his first two, but if you want to say he hasn't reached a certain arbitrary yardage mark in some number of weeks, that's fine, but to be honest it sounds a lot like you've got your head in the sand about Cam.
<Here's where I am supposed to say something legitimate and then you "correct" me with your own viewpoint.>I've said in the version of the thread you started that I respect what Rivera is doing and think it is a good way to set Newton up for success. I don't think it is the final version of the Cam Newton offense. The Panthers are 2-0 when Newton throws less than 30 times.
Watching the guy play, it is easy to be more impressed with him, just as a passer, than Bradford. The amount that has been put on Cam's shoulder's, with no camp, as a one year starter in at a major college, is impressive. Very impressive. The training wheels that are placed on Cam are very different than those placed on Bradford last season.You keep bringing up wins and losses - you know that is irrelevant. The defense lost two of it's best players and has been, simply awful. Look at the offensive production, compared to what it was last year. That is the best indication of the impact Cam has had. Or, look at the point differential, even, compared to last year. He is helping his team as much, or more than any other rookie QB in recent memory. I understand wanting to play devil's advocate or wanted to wait and see. If you honestly think Cam is distine to bust or tear 3 knee ligament, I can even respect that. But, at some point, you are just being a troll.Instead of grasping for historical indicators that suggest Cam's rookie season isn't as impressive as other's feal, or that it is impossible for him to be the fantasy player he is today, in the future, why don't you make a statment? Why do you tell us where you rank him among QBs, then overall, and what you think a reasonable point total for Cam, per season, going forward is?
<Correction: own viewpoint>The Panthers often use the option read, or at least the threat of it. A QB like Cam, that is the threat he is to run, is more effective from shotgun formations. Even though the Panthers haven't been running as many designed runs as they could, even the threat justifies the Panthers running shotgun as often as they do. When they do, the defense has to account for more, pre-snap. I don't see reason to suggest that will change.
