Reality Football
Footballguy
What say you? This is a tough one. He, like Mussina and Smoltz, will have their supporters and detractors.
Not sure about Schill..But Smoltz is in.....not to many guys out there with 200 W's and 150+ Saves.Finless said:He's not. He ramped it up too late. He'd have to go another 3-4 solid years at his current clip...that's not gonna happen.
Smoltz is a lock. He might have been the number 3 on paper, but on all those Brave teams, he was horse in post-season, and the only one who really came up big with any consistency.It's interesting. He has been a post-season force, but has he been healthy enough in the regular season to collect great #'s?Mussina has the best #'s of the 3, especially when you consider he has played his entire career in the AL. Schilling has pitched well in both, and Smoltz has been an NL lifer.Smoltz was the #3 on some great teams with 2 sure-fire HOFers in front of him. It will be interesting to see how the voters take his closing years into consideration. Smoltz still has a few years left in him.Schilling has his Postseason achievements to bolster his case, and led the league in wins a few times, but never won a Cy Young award. I'm not sure he has the few years left in him to help cement his case.Mussina has won 6 gold gloves and has 15 straight seasons with 11+ wins. He has never won 20 games, but has won at least 17 games 7 times (compared to Schilling (4) and Smoltz (2).) He might have the shortest career left of these 3 and that could hurt. 275 wins may have put him in.All 3 are very good pitchers, but I don't know if they are HOF material.
HOF Monitor scores . . .Cone 103Morris 122.5John 111Kaat 129.5Blyleven 120.5Mussina 109If Schilling goes in, David Cone and Jack Morris should both go in. Both very solid regular season performers, with exceptional post season moments. They all feel just short to me, but by comparison to guys like Tommy John, Kaat or Byleven, who get support, I'd rather see any one of these guys go in. Mussina just feels short to me, but I think he's got great mechanics, and if you put him in the NL West right now, I think he'd pitch long enough to pick up 300 wins. I guess some consideration has to be given a pitching life in the always tough AL East, where teams won titles 7 of the 14 world series winners in his career came from.
Jack Morris down?Also John Smoltz should not be in the category with Schilling and Mussina who are on the outside looking in. Smoltz is on the inside, waiving to them.Schill will be in the Hall, absolutely. His postseason success is his spade in the hole
Schill will be in the Hall, absolutely. His postseason success is his spade in the hole
I think Smoltz will get in, but Mussina and Schilling shouldn't...
FWIW, here are the active leaders in HOF Monitor score for pitchers, which I generally find is a decent common denominator for player evaluation.Clemens 326Big Unit 320Maddux 241Pedro 193Rivera 173Schilling 167Glavine 166Smoltz 143Hoffman 132Mussina 109I think Smoltz will get in, but Mussina and Schilling shouldn't...
Don't forget about his performance in 1993 either. NLCS MVP and a game 5 shutout of Toronto in the WS.Schilling and Smoltz are close in career stats in wins, ERA+, and WHIP but I think Smoltz over his career has been better and in this case it's enough to put him in the HOF and just get Schilling close. Schilling although dominate in 2001, 2002, 2004 and 1992 has been hurt alot and has never been consistent. He was also dominate in the playoffs in 2001 and 2004 and that will go a long way into him getting into the HOF and I think he'll be a borderline candidate like Jack Morris.
John Smoltz on the other hand has dominated not only as a starter in 1996 and 1998 but he also had one of the best seasons a closer has ever had in 2003 and two very good ones in 2002 (55 saves) and 2004. smoltz also has 15 playoff wins, four saves, and has to be considered the best playoff pitcher of his era. He has consistently been above average and has been extremely unique in his flexibility. He also might have a whole lot more wins if he had gotten the run support Maddux and Glavine got in Atlanta as his 89, 92, and 95 seasons could have been a whole lot better.
Mussina has just been very good in an era with quite a few great pitchers. He has also pitched for some really good teams yet still is just 7-8 in the postseason. He's going to need to win 300 games to get in the hall.
This is really impressive when you look at some of the recent leaders at season's end. Randy Johnson is the other pitcher of late that could easily attain this (372 in 2001 - wow). We've seen his HOF score already.Schilling has put up better numbers than people give him credit for . . .
3 times 20+ wins
5 other times 15+ wins
10 years with WHIP of 1.1 or less (including 2 under 1.0)
1.13 career WHIP
6 All Star appearances
3 times 300+ strikeouts
9 times ERA+ score of 130 or more
3 time Cy Young runner up
8-2, 2.06 postseason with 0.92 WHIP and 8.6 K/9
NLCS and WS MVPs
1 Bloody Sock
His ERA+ scores are also pretty amazing when you look back...his average statistical profile is in some cases better than the best seasons of some of the other names being thrown out in this thread.This is really impressive when you look at some of the recent leaders at season's end. Randy Johnson is the other pitcher of late that could easily attain this (372 in 2001 - wow). We've seen his HOF score already.Schilling has put up better numbers than people give him credit for . . .
3 times 20+ wins
5 other times 15+ wins
10 years with WHIP of 1.1 or less (including 2 under 1.0)
1.13 career WHIP
6 All Star appearances
3 times 300+ strikeouts
9 times ERA+ score of 130 or more
3 time Cy Young runner up
8-2, 2.06 postseason with 0.92 WHIP and 8.6 K/9
NLCS and WS MVPs
1 Bloody Sock
He was a clear number 1 in BaltimoreMoose should not even realistically enter discussion. Has he even *ever* really been considered a #1 pitcher?? As for Smoltz and Schill, they will get in, prob 2nd ballot
Smoltz199-139 .589154 saves3.27 ERA1.26 ERA+2833 strikeouts7.9 K/91.17 WHIPPost season 15-4, 2.65 ERASchilling211-139 .6033.44 ERA127 ERA+3062 strikeouts8.7 K/91.136 WHIPPost season 8-2, 2.06 ERACone194-126 .6063.46 ERA120 ERA+2668 strikeouts8.3 K/91.256 WHIPPost season 8-3, 3.80Morris254-186 .5773.90 ERA105 ERA+2478 strikeouts5.8 K/91.296 WHIPPost season 7-4, 3.80Mussina241-137 .6383.66 ERA124 ERA+2584 strikeouts7.2 K/91.179 WHIPPost season 7-8, 3.40Compare that to Pedro206-92 .6912.81 ERA160 ERA+2998 strikeouts10.2 K/91.026 WHIPPost season 6-2, 3.40I agree that Smoltz is a lock.I would say I'm 80% sure Schilling gets in. He's had a fine, lengthy career and pretty decent stats. Someone compared him to Cone and Jack Morris earlier. I'd have to look their stats up, but I believe this is a pretty decent comparison. If I had a vote, I'd vote Morris in....Cone would be real close, but I'd vote Schilling in over both of them.It's hard for me to justify Mussina being in the hall of fame, considering he has never won 20 games, never won a cy young....but hell, he should finish with 270 or so wins, and 2,700 or so strikeouts. Just shy of the hall in my opinion, but they've let in less worthy starters too![]()
The best evaluation tool I have seen to compare pitchers is ERA+. That measures a pitcher's ERA compared to the league average on a percentage basis. The higher the score the better. So Pedro's career ERA has been 60% better than the league average over his career.+ = HOFerPedro Martinez 160 Lefty Grove+ 148 Walter Johnson+ 146 Dan Quisenberry 146 Hoyt Wilhelm+ 146 Joe Wood 146 Ed Walsh+ 145 Roger Clemens 144 Jim Devlin 143 Johan Santana 143 Addie Joss+ 142 Roy Oswalt 142 Al Spalding+ 142 Kid Nichols+ 139 Mordecai Brown+ 138 Cy Young+ 138 John Franco 137 Randy Johnson 137 Bruce Sutter+ 136 Pete Alexander+ 135 Roberto Hernandez 135 Greg Maddux 135 Christy Mathewson+ 135 John Clarkson+ 134 John Hiller 134 Rube Waddell+ 134We know there's an impact on inflated hitting stats over the last decade plus......does the reverse apply to pitching stats? Meaning amid the offensive explosion, are recent pitching stats considered differently against their historic counterparts?
Pedro also won the Cy Young 3 times, runner up 2x, one third place and one fourth place finish.Pretty sure Pedro is a lock for the HOF....even if his win total doesn't top 250 for his career. Sandy Koufax got in with 165 wins....Pedro was just as dominant for 6-7 years as Koufax was for his 4 great years.David Yudkin said:Smoltz199-139 .589154 saves3.27 ERA1.26 ERA+2833 strikeouts7.9 K/91.17 WHIPPost season 15-4, 2.65 ERASchilling211-139 .6033.44 ERA127 ERA+3062 strikeouts8.7 K/91.136 WHIPPost season 8-2, 2.06 ERACone194-126 .6063.46 ERA120 ERA+2668 strikeouts8.3 K/91.256 WHIPPost season 8-3, 3.80Morris254-186 .5773.90 ERA105 ERA+2478 strikeouts5.8 K/91.296 WHIPPost season 7-4, 3.80Mussina241-137 .6383.66 ERA124 ERA+2584 strikeouts7.2 K/91.179 WHIPPost season 7-8, 3.40Compare that to Pedro206-92 .6912.81 ERA160 ERA+2998 strikeouts10.2 K/91.026 WHIPPost season 6-2, 3.40I agree that Smoltz is a lock.I would say I'm 80% sure Schilling gets in. He's had a fine, lengthy career and pretty decent stats. Someone compared him to Cone and Jack Morris earlier. I'd have to look their stats up, but I believe this is a pretty decent comparison. If I had a vote, I'd vote Morris in....Cone would be real close, but I'd vote Schilling in over both of them.It's hard for me to justify Mussina being in the hall of fame, considering he has never won 20 games, never won a cy young....but hell, he should finish with 270 or so wins, and 2,700 or so strikeouts. Just shy of the hall in my opinion, but they've let in less worthy starters too![]()
Pedro from 1997-2000 and 2002 years compare quite well to Koufax 1963-1966 and is a fine observation. I crunched these and they are very similiar:Pedro also won the Cy Young 3 times, runner up 2x, one third place and one fourth place finish.Pretty sure Pedro is a lock for the HOF....even if his win total doesn't top 250 for his career. Sandy Koufax got in with 165 wins....Pedro was just as dominant for 6-7 years as Koufax was for his 4 great years.David Yudkin said:Smoltz199-139 .589154 saves3.27 ERA1.26 ERA+2833 strikeouts7.9 K/91.17 WHIPPost season 15-4, 2.65 ERASchilling211-139 .6033.44 ERA127 ERA+3062 strikeouts8.7 K/91.136 WHIPPost season 8-2, 2.06 ERACone194-126 .6063.46 ERA120 ERA+2668 strikeouts8.3 K/91.256 WHIPPost season 8-3, 3.80Morris254-186 .5773.90 ERA105 ERA+2478 strikeouts5.8 K/91.296 WHIPPost season 7-4, 3.80Mussina241-137 .6383.66 ERA124 ERA+2584 strikeouts7.2 K/91.179 WHIPPost season 7-8, 3.40Compare that to Pedro206-92 .6912.81 ERA160 ERA+2998 strikeouts10.2 K/91.026 WHIPPost season 6-2, 3.40I agree that Smoltz is a lock.I would say I'm 80% sure Schilling gets in. He's had a fine, lengthy career and pretty decent stats. Someone compared him to Cone and Jack Morris earlier. I'd have to look their stats up, but I believe this is a pretty decent comparison. If I had a vote, I'd vote Morris in....Cone would be real close, but I'd vote Schilling in over both of them.It's hard for me to justify Mussina being in the hall of fame, considering he has never won 20 games, never won a cy young....but hell, he should finish with 270 or so wins, and 2,700 or so strikeouts. Just shy of the hall in my opinion, but they've let in less worthy starters too![]()
Wins: Koufax 107 Pedro 97IP: Koufax 1192 Pedro 1103K's: Koufax 1228 Pedro 1392H+BB: Koufax 1084 Pedro 1021WHIP: Koufax .910 Pedro .925Combined ERA+: Koufax 175 Pedro 221
The main difference in Koufax vs Pedro is the lack of pitching in today's game vs the 60s. By comparison . . .In 2000, Pedro had an ERA+ score of 285, second highest in a season all time next to Tim Keefe in 1880 with 294. Keefe had an ERA of 0.86 vs a League ERA of 2.52 (but only pitched in 12 games).Anyway, Pedro had an ERA+ score of 285. Clemens was #2 that year . . . at 137. Pedro also had a WHIP of 0.737 (the best season in baseball history) vs 1.187 for the #2 pitcher. (How he only went 18-6 is a mystery of epic proportions.)By comparison, Koufax's best ERA+ score was 190 (vs 165 for the #2 guy) and his best WHIP was 0.855 (vs 0.914 for the runner-up).I can't see how Pedro misses out on the HOF barring any disparaging photographs with him in compromising situations.I'd take Koufax over Pedro because he was a lefthander but Martinez if he never threw another pitch, should easily be in the Hall of Fame. Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Greg Maddux are the only pitchers that compare to Pedro from this era and they are all first ballot HOFers. Once you look back at Pedro's numbers it's hard to imagine how good he really could have been statistically if he could have stayed healthy.
Pedro Martinez is probably the greatest pitcher of all-time. Like many have shown, it's not only his raw statistics that astound, it's how they stack up against the rest of the league he's playing in. He's a men among boys. The only argument against Pedro is the longevity discussion. Clearly Clemens has been dominant for an insane number of years.Schilling is a likely Hall of Famer as his win total will move towards 250 wins. As someone said, 300 is no longer a fair barometer. His other stats, especially 3000+K's will get him in.Smoltz is also in. Dominant starter. Dominant closer. Dominant in the postseason. No doubt about it.Mussina is a tricky one. There's nothing about him that screams #1 starter. There are no statistics justifying his inclusion. No Cy Youngs. Not even one season with 20+ wins. The only argument in favor of Mussina is longevity as he'll likely be north of 250 wins. He's no Hall of Famer in my book, but then again, neither are Niekro, Sutton and a bunch of others.As for Koufax, his 6 year run was remarkable. The reason some of his seasons prior to that weren't great were because Alston jerked him around. Look at the stats. In 1958 he made 26 starts but appeared in 40 games. When you don't have a secure role, the constant changing of dynamics only serves to screw you up. Ask most hitters who played during that era and they'll likely say Koufax and Gibson were two guys they never wanted to face.
Definite first-ballot lock for the Hall of Very Good.Tweener, otherwise, and I have a feeling he'll be on the ballot for many years.Bump now that Schilling has called it quits.216-146 (.597)22 saves3261 IP2998 hits allowed3116 strikeouts711 base on balls3.46 ERA127 ERA+1.137 WHIPTop 10 ERA 9 timesTop 10 WHIP 11 timesTop 10 Strikeouts 10 timesTop 10 Strikeout to Walk Ratio 11 timesTop 10 ERA+ 11 times6-time All Star0 Cy Youngs (Runner Up three times)0 MVPs (finished 10th twice)3 World Series rings11-2, 2.23 ERA in the post season1 bloody sock
Career 127 ERA+ isnt very good, its excellent.Definite first-ballot lock for the Hall of Very Good.Tweener, otherwise, and I have a feeling he'll be on the ballot for many years.Bump now that Schilling has called it quits.216-146 (.597)22 saves3261 IP2998 hits allowed3116 strikeouts711 base on balls3.46 ERA127 ERA+1.137 WHIPTop 10 ERA 9 timesTop 10 WHIP 11 timesTop 10 Strikeouts 10 timesTop 10 Strikeout to Walk Ratio 11 timesTop 10 ERA+ 11 times6-time All Star0 Cy Youngs (Runner Up three times)0 MVPs (finished 10th twice)3 World Series rings11-2, 2.23 ERA in the post season1 bloody sock
I think that's the sort of crap that gets us into these messes. No they don't.the voters have to vote for somebody.
OK, how about this: they want to vote for somebody so they can feel important and write lousy columns about it.I think that's the sort of crap that gets us into these messes. No they don't.the voters have to vote for somebody.