Ghost Rider
Footballguy
He'll have a much greater chance now. And despite his alleged association with PEDs in the past, the media seems to completely ignore that, preferring to fall all over themselves loving the guy. That will be a factor.
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Is David Ortiz a HOFer (1 Viewer)
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Don Quixote
Footballguy
I'm coming around to should be in, but I still don't think he gets in.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
This is what amazes he. It's not even alleged is it? He admitted he used in 2003, yet somehow he's the only one of McGwire, Bonds, Clemens, Cruz, A-Rod Sosa, etc.. who is not only not vilified, but celebrated.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
He didn't admit to it, but he was on the list of players who allegedly tested positive during the "anonymous" trial phase back in 2003. ARod and Manny were also originally outed due to that list too, so pretty safe to say he did it at some point.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Big Pedi?
sporthenry
Footballguy
Too much going against him even with his awesome Octobers. His regular season numbers aren't great. Add in the fact he is a DH and connected to steroids, at least in some capacity, and that is strike 2 and 3.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Kornheiser just called him a first ballot Hall of Famer, and Wilbon all but agreed with him. 
Even if he does make it someday, on the first ballot? No freaking way.
Even if he does make it someday, on the first ballot? No freaking way.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
I think they should do drug tests on all baseball playoff teams players before they start playing in the playoffs.
Eephus
Footballguy
He's received 42%, 56% and 60% of the votes in his three years of eligibility. I think chances are pretty good that Bagwell will eventually get in, although the ballot will be pretty crowded the next few years.
DropKick
Footballguy
There is just way too much bias in this thread. Ortiz is now a 3 time W.S. winner and a key part of each of those teams. He is considered among the best, if not the best, DHs. The MLB HOF puts much emphasis on cumulative numbers but with big performances on a big stage, clutch hits, MVPs, etc. I have little doubt he is HOF.
As far as PEDs go... just about everybody in the game ten years ago probably has some question marks. Ortiz was on a list of what, 100+, players? No failed drug tests... no other issues. Why should he be mentioned with the high profile, more controversial guys (like Bonds, Clemons, ARod, Braun)?
dparker713
Footballguy
If they won't put in Edgar, he shouldn't get in. Edgar was MUCH better than Papi. Playoff performances should be bonus points, not the main case for a candidacy. Plus, no one with as strongly reported a PED connection as Ortiz should be admitted before Bonds and Clemens.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Hmmm. Many members of the media around Boston seem to have been drinking the Papi flavored Kool-Aid lately, especially after his latest WS performance. Several guys have called him a first ballot HOFer and many others think he is a lock to get in based on his clutch hits in the post season and his 3 rings. I am as big a Sox fan as they come, and even I don't think he will make it. Some folks are saying after Ted Williams he is the next best and most important Red Sox player ever . . . above Clemens, Pedro, Yaz, Rice, Manny, Fisk, Boggs, and the guys that weren't there for extended stays (Cy Young, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Tris Speaker, etc.).
Ortiz has been mostly a solid hitter but has only had 9 seasons with 500 plate appearances. No matter how you slice it, he's been linked to steroids and has only played in the field in 263 games (out of 1,969 regular season games played). While not quite the same, saying someone has been the best DH is similar to saying someone was the best special teamer or kick returner in football. IMO, that means you were great in a limited role but not good enough to be a full time player at another position. He's had a half dozen really good years . . . but does that make him a HOFer?
Maybe I am being too cynical, but it seems to me like too many Boston fans are just looking at what they want to see and ignoring Papi's shortcomings on this one.
Ortiz has been mostly a solid hitter but has only had 9 seasons with 500 plate appearances. No matter how you slice it, he's been linked to steroids and has only played in the field in 263 games (out of 1,969 regular season games played). While not quite the same, saying someone has been the best DH is similar to saying someone was the best special teamer or kick returner in football. IMO, that means you were great in a limited role but not good enough to be a full time player at another position. He's had a half dozen really good years . . . but does that make him a HOFer?
Maybe I am being too cynical, but it seems to me like too many Boston fans are just looking at what they want to see and ignoring Papi's shortcomings on this one.
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Insoxicated
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Ortiz career .930 OPS, 139 OPS+
Edgar career .933 OPS, 147 OPS+
Clearly Ortiz has a better post season resume and 3 more rings. Not sure that makes him a HOF lock by any stretch.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Yes.
Miguel Cabrera being a terrible defender is more of a liability than Ortiz being a non-defender.
Miguel Cabrera being a terrible defender is more of a liability than Ortiz being a non-defender.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
If Ortiz plays 3-4 years and finishes playing at 41 like Edgar did he will most likely retire with a lower OPS than he has now. Not that it's the best measure of a player's contributions or HOF barometer, but WAR is a 68-44 slaughter for Edgar with comparable career PAs.
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Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
IMO Ortiz is too far back in the 1B/DH line among his contemporaries to get in. His postseason heroics for a big-market team will help him jump ahead in that line and he's not done playing yet, but compared to a guy like Bagwell who has been on three ballots and still trying, IMO Ortiz is going to have a longer wait than a lot of folks think.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I was never that good at math. Ortiz has 8249 career regular season plate appearances. Martinez had 8674. I'm guessing the difference is not 2000.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Anarchy99 said:
was comparing Ortiz's Boston PA total to Edgsr's full career. Oops. Ortiz's six seasons with the Twins aren't a factor in his HOF candidacy, and a lot of Bosox fans probably don't know Ortiz ever played for another team, but a mistake is a mistake. Thanks for pointing it out, and apologies to anyone misled by my error.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
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the moops
Footballguy
just really bad maybe?
dparker713
Footballguy
Except that OBP and SLG neither have the same denominator, nor should they be equally weighted. Edgar has about an Ortiz season of extra ABs with .013 higher wOBA and 9 wRC+ That's very significant. Oh, and Edgar did actually contribute much more on defense than Papi.Anarchy99 said:
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
dparker713
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
2013: 19th out of 20 qualified 3B: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
2012: 12th out of 13: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d
2012: 12th out of 13: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
By the time Ortiz is on the ballot, Frank Thomas will be in the HOF, paving the way for other 1Bs who really were DHs. Bagwell's lack of glove prowess doesn't seem to be a factor in his candidacy. Keith Hernandez won 11 straight Gold Gloves at 1B and didn't come close to the HOF.
Any existing PED stigma attached to Ortiz might be worn off in the 6-10 years between now and his first appearance on the ballot.
Curious if advanced stats will creep into the minds of HOF voters over the next few years. His career WAR is significantly lower than the WAR of contemporaries like Chase Utley, Lance Berkman, and Torii Hunter, so those postseason HRs better be worth a lot.
Any existing PED stigma attached to Ortiz might be worn off in the 6-10 years between now and his first appearance on the ballot.
Curious if advanced stats will creep into the minds of HOF voters over the next few years. His career WAR is significantly lower than the WAR of contemporaries like Chase Utley, Lance Berkman, and Torii Hunter, so those postseason HRs better be worth a lot.
dparker713
Footballguy
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Not seeing why that gap matters. How many times did White Sox fans feel relieved about a hot shot down the first-base line or a throw in the dirt because Big Hurt was the glove over at 1B? Thomas's HOF chances would be the same whether he played 12% or 40% of his games at 1B.
Wrigley
Footballguy
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
There's a lot of 1-time MVPs who won't ever make 50% of the HOF ballots, and a lot of guys in the HOF who never won one. I doubt two-time MVP Juan Gonzalez will get in. It seems in the minds of HOF voters, how good a player was over his best 10-12 seasons matters more than how great his best 1-2 seasons were. Given how many players in their late 30s are in the gray ink and are factors in pennant races year in and year out, IMO it's fair to consider longevity.Wrigley said:
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Don Quixote
Footballguy
Dale Murphy had two MVPs and never even came close.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Talking about Miguel Cabrera's shortcomings as a fielder are pretty irrelevant to this discussion, because he's a transcendent, once-in-a-lifetime hitter. Ortiz has had a lot of very good to excellent seasons, but let's not pretend they're in the same stratosphere offensively.
And like Shady says, the DH part won't keep him out. It's the steroid allegations. The all-time home run king isn't sniffing the HOF anytime soon, so I can't imagine David Ortiz will get in without a ticket.
And like Shady says, the DH part won't keep him out. It's the steroid allegations. The all-time home run king isn't sniffing the HOF anytime soon, so I can't imagine David Ortiz will get in without a ticket.
Wrigley
Footballguy
I was speaking of Thomas.
During 90-99 he finished in the top 10 in batting average six times, on-base percentage seven times, slugging percentage seven times, OPS seven times, runs scored six times, hits four times, doubles two times, home runs six times, runs batted in seven times, and walks eight times.
Thomas is a lock
the moops
Footballguy
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Earlier in the thread I said Thomas would be in the HOF by the time Ortiz was on the ballot. Not sure how that could be interpreted as disagreeing with the idea that Thomas is a lock.
DropKick
Footballguy
Again, how can you compare Bonds' association with PEDs to Ortiz? If you have a little smoke with Ortiz you have a raging forest fire with Bonds.
Of course there are better ball players than Ortiz but I'm sure you'll find guys already in the hall with comparable stats (Willie Stargell?). The DH stigma will lessen over time. The game evolved... eventually the HOF will catch up. I think people are selling the post season performance short but it is the thing voters will remember.
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Insoxicated
Agreed. I definitely don't think he's a lock or even great odds... agreed...was just addressing the assertion that edgar was "MUCH better than Papi"
Michael Brown
Footballguy
Right, but it doesn't appear voters are going to care if someone only took "a little bit" of steroids. A cheater is a cheater is a cheater, is how they've been looking at it. In fact, they've even been looking at it as, even if there's a possibility that you're a cheater then you're a cheater. A guy with ANY allegations is already on the outside looking in. My point wasn't to compare the two. My point is, we have a guy who was a first-ballot HOFer BEFORE any steroid allegations. And even HE can't get in based on that. With Ortiz's potentially positive test result coming in 2003 which is the first year he was a breakout offensive talent, there's no way he can get a pass for that.
As for the DH thing...let's assume he was a better fielder and was good enough to play the field. He'd then be a top-ten 1B in his era but far from being the best. Pujols, Helton, Prince, Berkman, Thome, Votto, and Miggy (before he went back to 3B), can all make a case for being better than Ortiz. Hell even Giambi has a higher career OPS+. I'm not going to give Ortiz credit for being the best DH of his era when the only reason he even WAS a DH is because he wasn't good enough to play the field. Any one of those guys, plus probably about two dozen more players, would have been better DHs than Ortiz if they too had horrible gloves. Sorry, I'm not voting for Ortiz just because he was the tallest midget.
Michael Brown
Footballguy
And again, I'm not saying a DH can't or won't or shouldn't get in. I'm saying, if they DO get in it needs to be because they put up otherworldly offensive stats. Not because they were the best of the guys who play half the time. Use Mariano Rivera as an example. He's the best relief pitcher of all-time, but he's not getting into the HOF because of that. He's getting in because he lapped the field at his position. IMO, relievers need to do that to get consideration or else you water down the honor with a bunch of failed starters.
Why are you using Mariano Rivera as an example? There is plenty of precedent set with relievers in the hall of fame. Gossage, Sutter, Eckersely, Fingers are already in. Did any of these guys do something otherworldly?
I don't think Ortiz will get in, but just at a quick glance, his 10-11 year period with the Red Sox sizes up very favorably against his contemporaries. With 2 or so more decent seasons, he'll likely end up top 25 all time in hr's, top 30 all time in rbi's, of all time, that's pretty damn solid.
I like Ortiz just fine. If he gets in I'll be happy for him. I think the odds are about 50-50 now, dh or not. Of course it is tilted due to his recent WS play, and if he crashes next season who knows, but he's had a very nice career.
shadyridr
Footballguy
ortiz has been one of the most feared hitters in baseball for a decade PLUS has all the postseason accolades. I dont care what position he (doesnt) play, IMO if it wasnt for the roids hed be a lock.
