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Is drafting a Bengals TE fools gold? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter cr8f
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EBF
Footballguy
He's terrible.
I already have in leagues that favor TE scoring and in a league where I badly needed a developmental TE.The system is not a concern in the long run. If he's a good player, he'll get looks. If not, he won't. The recent track record of first round TEs is pretty strong, so at worst you're probably looking at a fringe starter for your FF team and at best he could probably become a top 5-6 guy.
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Aardvarks
Footballguy
Bob Bratkowski doesn't use tight ends. Period.
loose circuits
Footballguy
Coffman was going to have to develop to become an in-line TE. Something he never did. He's still around and I'll bet he pushes for a #2TE role and maybe have a package with him flexed out depending on whether they want to use Jones in a similar role. I could see those guys battling out for 1 roster spot and whichever is more effective in special teams will get the gig. Maybe they both get cut...? If they use Shipley as the PR, Cosby is likely gone so there will be another WR spot open in addition to whatever is available at TE for Coffman. Gresham and Coffman are 2 completely different type of players.
If you like Gresham draft him. He's going to a good offense with a need for someone with his skills. Problem is that you have to give TE's time to develop. If you get impatient and either release or trade him low during the rough periods of learning blocking assignments as well as pass routes. Are Pettigrew owners regretting where they drafted him? Would you be ok with burning a late 1st/early 2nd on a project TE?
Probably would also depend on who's left when I am deciding on whether or not to pick him.
If you like Gresham draft him. He's going to a good offense with a need for someone with his skills. Problem is that you have to give TE's time to develop. If you get impatient and either release or trade him low during the rough periods of learning blocking assignments as well as pass routes. Are Pettigrew owners regretting where they drafted him? Would you be ok with burning a late 1st/early 2nd on a project TE?
Probably would also depend on who's left when I am deciding on whether or not to pick him.
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Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
He's never had the talent of Gresham either. There's a definite risk that Gresham is another M Lewis. I believe as offensive coordinator, his best performing TE's have been Carlester Crumpler, Fauria,and Schobel - not exactly first round talents.
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Hanging out with Marco Battaglia?
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
IMO, a TE is only valuable if they're the #2 receiving threat on the team - #3 if you have a superior offense which Cinci doesn't really have.
Antonio Bryant signed a 4 year contract. Ochocinco is signed through 2012. -- doesn't look good for Gresham imo for the first couple of years. Who knows if Cinci will acquire a WR after #85 is gone.
Antonio Bryant signed a 4 year contract. Ochocinco is signed through 2012. -- doesn't look good for Gresham imo for the first couple of years. Who knows if Cinci will acquire a WR after #85 is gone.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
not necessarily fool's gold to take a Bengals TE, but there are so many other/better options at the TE position that you won't have to risk a selection on Gresham..
Shutout
Footballguy
This is not MY team but its my local team, so FWIW:
Coffman never got over his foot issues last year but, locally, he is RAVED about on his participation in the portions he was able to work with (P.S., etc). With that being said, you don't draft Gresham if you're THAT in love. Bottom line, I think Coffman could have been the guy but there are still medical concerns.
Gresham: Without a doubt, the guy has talent, talent, talent. Without a doubt, this is the most talented guy that Carson Palmer has had at the position since he has been here. Without a doubt the Bengals use of a TE is about a standard 3rd option, at best.
In recent years, drafting TEs for a FF team has been a great "wait and see" project". Even talent such as Vernon Davis. I drafted him and waited so long for him to develop, that last year when he finally broke out, I traded him as I thought his value would never be higher (I may be smart or regretting that..who knows). Point being, it seems like teams that draft TEs in keepers and Dynasty leagues really need to have the space on their roster and a lot of patience. I did it with Vernon, but I think looking back, I would be happier to just find a breakout guy and overpay for him a bit in a trade as he emerges.
Overall, I don't think drafting a Bengals TE is a great investment, at least not in the short term.
Coffman never got over his foot issues last year but, locally, he is RAVED about on his participation in the portions he was able to work with (P.S., etc). With that being said, you don't draft Gresham if you're THAT in love. Bottom line, I think Coffman could have been the guy but there are still medical concerns.
Gresham: Without a doubt, the guy has talent, talent, talent. Without a doubt, this is the most talented guy that Carson Palmer has had at the position since he has been here. Without a doubt the Bengals use of a TE is about a standard 3rd option, at best.
In recent years, drafting TEs for a FF team has been a great "wait and see" project". Even talent such as Vernon Davis. I drafted him and waited so long for him to develop, that last year when he finally broke out, I traded him as I thought his value would never be higher (I may be smart or regretting that..who knows). Point being, it seems like teams that draft TEs in keepers and Dynasty leagues really need to have the space on their roster and a lot of patience. I did it with Vernon, but I think looking back, I would be happier to just find a breakout guy and overpay for him a bit in a trade as he emerges.
Overall, I don't think drafting a Bengals TE is a great investment, at least not in the short term.
definitely wouldn't let Cincy's history with the TE scare you off of Gresham. he's a better receiver than blocker, so Cincy should know what they got here. Foschi and Coats combined for almost 70 targets last year and between them they fumbled and dropped a lot of passes. If Gresham is solid, he will get lots of looks.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Cincinnati's receivers intrigue me, and that's a bad sign for Gresham.
Ochocinco - at his best, a dominant receiver. He flashed that ability at times last year. Still very good and doesn't appeared to have lost much.
Antonio Bryant - mercurial is the word that immediately pops to mind. Won the Biletnikoff as a sophomore, something only Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Crabtree have done. Decent produciton in Dallas but character issues came up; had a 1,000 yards with Trent Dilfer in Cleveland. Then had a monster year in '08 with Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese. Numbers took a dive with a rookie QB, but can he have another big season playing with a real QB opposite a real WR for the first time in a long time?
Andre Caldwell - entering his third season. Looks to be on the upswing. Ran a 4.37 at his combine.
Matt Jones - obviously has crazy athleticism. Seemed to be putting it all together as a receiver; was on a 1,000 yard pace in Jacksonville in '08 for 12 games but was (blackballed?) unable to find a team in '09.
Jerome Simpson - Cincy spent a 2nd rounder on him in '08 but hasn't gotten anything out of him. Productive player at Coastal Carolina was supposed to be a project but it looks like the Bengals are ready to cut bait.
Quan Cosby - caught everything you threw at him at Texas. Limited size/speed/potential, but seemed like a natural fit to be a solid slot receiver.
Then the Bengals went out and drafted Jordan Shipley and Dezmon Briscoe.
Shipley is like a bigger Cosby. He lacks high end speed but could make for a very reliable slot guy between Ochocinco and Bryant.
Briscoe - great athlete, big frame, excellent after the catch. Can he mature and make it in the NFL?
Cincinnati seems stocked with talent at receiver. On the other hand, except for Ochocinco, none of these guys had big seasons in the NFL last year. So who knows. I think Simpson, Cosby and Briscoe get the boot, and Shipley slides in a STer and WR5. Maybe Matt Jones gets cut if he doesn't look good. But I don't know if there will be enough balls for the TE in an offense that likes to play power football, run it a ton, and play strong defense. It helps that there's no pass catching back, but that only goes so far when you're deep at receiver and are a run-first offense.
Ochocinco - at his best, a dominant receiver. He flashed that ability at times last year. Still very good and doesn't appeared to have lost much.
Antonio Bryant - mercurial is the word that immediately pops to mind. Won the Biletnikoff as a sophomore, something only Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Crabtree have done. Decent produciton in Dallas but character issues came up; had a 1,000 yards with Trent Dilfer in Cleveland. Then had a monster year in '08 with Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese. Numbers took a dive with a rookie QB, but can he have another big season playing with a real QB opposite a real WR for the first time in a long time?
Andre Caldwell - entering his third season. Looks to be on the upswing. Ran a 4.37 at his combine.
Matt Jones - obviously has crazy athleticism. Seemed to be putting it all together as a receiver; was on a 1,000 yard pace in Jacksonville in '08 for 12 games but was (blackballed?) unable to find a team in '09.
Jerome Simpson - Cincy spent a 2nd rounder on him in '08 but hasn't gotten anything out of him. Productive player at Coastal Carolina was supposed to be a project but it looks like the Bengals are ready to cut bait.
Quan Cosby - caught everything you threw at him at Texas. Limited size/speed/potential, but seemed like a natural fit to be a solid slot receiver.
Then the Bengals went out and drafted Jordan Shipley and Dezmon Briscoe.
Shipley is like a bigger Cosby. He lacks high end speed but could make for a very reliable slot guy between Ochocinco and Bryant.
Briscoe - great athlete, big frame, excellent after the catch. Can he mature and make it in the NFL?
Cincinnati seems stocked with talent at receiver. On the other hand, except for Ochocinco, none of these guys had big seasons in the NFL last year. So who knows. I think Simpson, Cosby and Briscoe get the boot, and Shipley slides in a STer and WR5. Maybe Matt Jones gets cut if he doesn't look good. But I don't know if there will be enough balls for the TE in an offense that likes to play power football, run it a ton, and play strong defense. It helps that there's no pass catching back, but that only goes so far when you're deep at receiver and are a run-first offense.
EBF
Footballguy
People are putting too much emphasis on team history and short term situation.
First off, the obvious reason why the Bengals have never had a productive TE in recent seasons is because all of their TEs have been terrible. It's not like they've been getting poor production out of Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. They have never even had a good pass catching TE, so it's impossible to say how they'll use one. Teams tend to build their gameplans around their talent, not necessarily the other way around. It's reasonable to think that Gresham marks a significant upgrade over every TE who has donned a Bengals uniform in the past decade. They spent the 21st overall pick on him even though he didn't play a game last season.
Secondly, the receivers will definitely vulture some opportunities in the short term, but are hardly a long term roadblock if Gresham becomes the kind of player that the Bengals are hoping for. Ochocinco is an elite talent, but he's 32 years old. Bryant will be a solid if he can stay out of trouble, but he's not exactly young either at 29 years old. Caldwell, Jones, and Shipley will most likely be secondary options. Cosby, Simpson, and Briscoe will have a hard time making the roster. So basically the Bengals have two solid receivers and some decent situational options. That doesn't make them any different from a team like the Steelers, Vikings, Eagles, Cowboys, or Colts (who all produced a top 10 TE in 2009).
Look at the track record of TEs picked in recent years along with their best yardage season in parenthesis:
1.30 Dustin Keller (48 catches, 535 yards)
1.31 Greg Olsen (60 catches, 612 yards)
1.06 Vernon Davis (78 catches, 965 yards)
1.28 Marcedes Lewis (32 catches, 518 yards)
1.30 Heath Miller (76 catches, 789 yards)
1.06 Kellen Winslow (82 catches, 1106 yards)
1.32 Ben Watson (49 catches, 643 yards)
1.24 Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1106 yards)
1.14 Jeremy Shockey (74 catches, 894 yards)
1.21 Daniel Graham (38 catches, 409 yards)
1.28 Jerramy Stevens (45 catches, 554 yards)
1.31 Todd Heap (75 catches, 855 yards)
1.14 Bubba Franks (54 catches, 442 yards)
1.27 Anthony Becht (40 catches, 356 yards)
Some interesting things about this list:
All of these guys are still in the league except Bubba Franks, who had a 9 year career. This tells me that based on historical odds, it's highly unlikely that Gresham will be a complete washout.
11 out of the 14 players on this list had at least one season of 500+ receiving yards, which would probably make them startable in most FF leagues. 6 out of the 14 players on this list had at least one season of 750+ receiving yards, which would probably make them elite starters in most FF leagues. So just based on the odds alone Gresham is probably a 70-80% bet to become a serviceable FF starter at some point in his career and a 35-50% bet to become an elite starter.
Then just look at the player himself. Gresham is considered more of a receiving specialist than a blocker, so you would probably expect his NFL production to mirror that. He had 66 catches for 950 yards and 14 TDs as a junior, which has to be a better college season than almost any other player on this list. Moreover, he was chosen higher than 9 out of the 14 TEs on the above list even though he missed his entire senior season with an injury. To me this suggests that he's a better prospect than the average first round TE.
The odds are against Gresham becoming another Tony Gonzalez or Dallas Clark, but the numbers offer a pretty encouraging career outlook. At worst he will probably become a Marcedes Lewis type and at best he could become a real standout. This makes him a pretty appealing gamble for teams who need a starting TE or in leagues where TE scoring receives a bonus.
First off, the obvious reason why the Bengals have never had a productive TE in recent seasons is because all of their TEs have been terrible. It's not like they've been getting poor production out of Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. They have never even had a good pass catching TE, so it's impossible to say how they'll use one. Teams tend to build their gameplans around their talent, not necessarily the other way around. It's reasonable to think that Gresham marks a significant upgrade over every TE who has donned a Bengals uniform in the past decade. They spent the 21st overall pick on him even though he didn't play a game last season.
Secondly, the receivers will definitely vulture some opportunities in the short term, but are hardly a long term roadblock if Gresham becomes the kind of player that the Bengals are hoping for. Ochocinco is an elite talent, but he's 32 years old. Bryant will be a solid if he can stay out of trouble, but he's not exactly young either at 29 years old. Caldwell, Jones, and Shipley will most likely be secondary options. Cosby, Simpson, and Briscoe will have a hard time making the roster. So basically the Bengals have two solid receivers and some decent situational options. That doesn't make them any different from a team like the Steelers, Vikings, Eagles, Cowboys, or Colts (who all produced a top 10 TE in 2009).
Look at the track record of TEs picked in recent years along with their best yardage season in parenthesis:
1.30 Dustin Keller (48 catches, 535 yards)
1.31 Greg Olsen (60 catches, 612 yards)
1.06 Vernon Davis (78 catches, 965 yards)
1.28 Marcedes Lewis (32 catches, 518 yards)
1.30 Heath Miller (76 catches, 789 yards)
1.06 Kellen Winslow (82 catches, 1106 yards)
1.32 Ben Watson (49 catches, 643 yards)
1.24 Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1106 yards)
1.14 Jeremy Shockey (74 catches, 894 yards)
1.21 Daniel Graham (38 catches, 409 yards)
1.28 Jerramy Stevens (45 catches, 554 yards)
1.31 Todd Heap (75 catches, 855 yards)
1.14 Bubba Franks (54 catches, 442 yards)
1.27 Anthony Becht (40 catches, 356 yards)
Some interesting things about this list:
All of these guys are still in the league except Bubba Franks, who had a 9 year career. This tells me that based on historical odds, it's highly unlikely that Gresham will be a complete washout.
11 out of the 14 players on this list had at least one season of 500+ receiving yards, which would probably make them startable in most FF leagues. 6 out of the 14 players on this list had at least one season of 750+ receiving yards, which would probably make them elite starters in most FF leagues. So just based on the odds alone Gresham is probably a 70-80% bet to become a serviceable FF starter at some point in his career and a 35-50% bet to become an elite starter.
Then just look at the player himself. Gresham is considered more of a receiving specialist than a blocker, so you would probably expect his NFL production to mirror that. He had 66 catches for 950 yards and 14 TDs as a junior, which has to be a better college season than almost any other player on this list. Moreover, he was chosen higher than 9 out of the 14 TEs on the above list even though he missed his entire senior season with an injury. To me this suggests that he's a better prospect than the average first round TE.
The odds are against Gresham becoming another Tony Gonzalez or Dallas Clark, but the numbers offer a pretty encouraging career outlook. At worst he will probably become a Marcedes Lewis type and at best he could become a real standout. This makes him a pretty appealing gamble for teams who need a starting TE or in leagues where TE scoring receives a bonus.
EBF
Footballguy
The first reason is because my initial opinion was probably too pessimistic. No, he doesn't move as well as Winslow or Gonzalez, but he has a pretty compelling overall package of skills that should make him an effective pro. He's fluid for his size, has good straight-line speed, and offers rare height and bulk for a receiving specialist. And that's all based on what he did when he was just 20 years old. If you figure he might get better with age and maturity, his ceiling starts looking pretty high. The second reason is because I put a lot of stock into draft position. If a pro team with a whole staff of professional scouts is willing to spend a first round pick on this guy then I have to take that into consideration. It won't sway me one way or the other if I totally hate or love a player, but in most cases I try to rank players roughly where their NFL draft position suggests they should be ranked.
Mr.Underhill
Footballguy
This is a tough call for me.
You don't want to burn the pick on him to have him peak at TE8. There's a carousel in that tier of TE's anyway, so you can get that kind of production without having to burn a rookie draft pick on it. If I have to gamble, I'd rather gamble on a position that has more upside than TE.
Sure he's very talented. And there are plenty of talented TE's that come in and command a bigger share of the looks than TE's used to get in that system.
But there are plenty of situations where a talented TE never really sees the production his talent indicates he is capable of producing because the system he's in just doesn't give him that many opportunities.
Where do you guys have Greg Olsen ranked this season? It seems to me that having a QB like Cutler and a pass heavy attack should have people clamoring to get Greg Olsen. But is Greg Olsen getting that kind of buzz for this season?
Or have we decided that he was graded wrong and really wasn't that good after all?
You don't want to burn the pick on him to have him peak at TE8. There's a carousel in that tier of TE's anyway, so you can get that kind of production without having to burn a rookie draft pick on it. If I have to gamble, I'd rather gamble on a position that has more upside than TE.
Sure he's very talented. And there are plenty of talented TE's that come in and command a bigger share of the looks than TE's used to get in that system.
But there are plenty of situations where a talented TE never really sees the production his talent indicates he is capable of producing because the system he's in just doesn't give him that many opportunities.
Where do you guys have Greg Olsen ranked this season? It seems to me that having a QB like Cutler and a pass heavy attack should have people clamoring to get Greg Olsen. But is Greg Olsen getting that kind of buzz for this season?
Or have we decided that he was graded wrong and really wasn't that good after all?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Same problem - Martz doesn't use the TE, so we assume he won't be featured in the offense. Most were waiting for a NE trade which never happened.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Yeah, but that team was the Bengals, and I don't value their opinion much. In fact, don't they have the fewest number of scouts in the entire NFL? I think that's true. They tend to go for "name" players.I've just never seen much in Gresham's game to be excited about. Couple that with his knee injuries and going to a team that doesn't feature the TE and has several weapons at WR and a good running game, and I'm just not interested. If anything, his selection by the Bengals just sealed the deal for me.
EBF
Footballguy
I think the general consensus is that he was the best TE available, so it's a pretty good bet that he would've been a first round pick even if the Bengals hadn't been the team to pull the trigger. That leaked Cowboys draft board has him as a first round value, ranked 23rd overall. To me Cincinnati is a good landing spot. They have a pretty empty cupboard at TE, so he'll be starting there in the near future. I don't care what their track record is with TE talent because they haven't had an above average starter at the position (or anyone even close) in 10+ years. It's narrow-minded to assume that Gresham won't produce for them just because no one else has produced their lately. If he's legit, he'll become a big factor. If he's not, he won't.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
This goes back farther than Cincinnati. Bratkowski was the O coordinator in Seattle from 1995-1998. Here are the numbers for the top TE in each of those years:'95: 17 catches, 181 yards'96: 26 catches, 258 yards'97: 31 catches, 361 yards'98: 37 catches, 377 yardsAgain, no real great TE talent there then, but I still think it's relevant to the conversation.I understand that they could change the offense to tailor it more to their strengths and use a guy like Gresham. That's obviously possible. And I think that Gresham will probably put up better numbers than his predecessors under Bratkowski, but they like to run with Benson and throw to Chad Johnson and now Antonio Bryant. I think anyone looking for "stud" production is going to be disappointed. Especially since I don't see Gresham as an elite talent that will force Bratkowski to reinvent the wheel.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Saying Gresham isn't a elite talent is just wrong. Saying he's got durability issues would have carried more credibility.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Beauty is all in the eye of the beholder, and I just don't see it. Good? Yes. Great? I don't think so.
ChargersOH
Footballguy
If Palmer throws as poorly this year as he did last, it won't matter who is on the other end of the passes.
cr8f
Footballguy
I'm surprised because his father was pretty good with the Packers. I've seen Gresham go very early in rookie drafts(too early for me) but wondered what people thought. I've seen him go in the 1st and that is unusual for tight ends.
FavreCo
Footballguy
I'll bet at least one of the guys picked in the 3rd or 4th round will outperform him in their career. Jimmy Graham being one of them. A bad move when you look at the TE talent in this draft.
lyon812
Footballguy
Gresham may not be an athletic freak like Vernon Davis, but he's a great talent that has very few holes in his game. People knock him for not being exceptional, but he's extremely well-rounded and more than good enough in every category. He's big, physical, has good hands, is a reliable target in all areas of the field, creates mismatches against coverage. I'd be more than willing to gamble on him in the latter part of the first round/early part of the second if I needed a TE. Otherwise, he's seems ripe to be the type of player that everyone gives up on after the first two years, and then explodes in Year 3 and becomes a Top-7 player the rest of the way.
