Is football becoming too predictable? (1 Viewer)

[msudaisy26]

Is this year starting a trend or is it an outlier?

Pre-season odds in the NFC had the Lions, Eagles, 49ers and Saints all as the favorites to win their divisions and the Cowboys, Seahawks the next two teams in the playoffs.

The AFC had the Chiefs, Jags, Bills and Bengals. The Chiefs and Jags are in first and the other two are in second. The teams that are in first in those divisions are the Dolphins and Ravens who were favorites to be wildcard teams.

So right now preseason rankings are hitting at about a 75 percent clip and even the misses aren't that shocking.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

A lot of these teams have been worse than expected. The thing we're missing this year compared to typical years is those few teams that are much better than expected or that aren't actually very good but somehow string together a bunch of close wins. Though the Steelers/Browns have kind of found that last part.

 

[pollardsvision]

I think it's a good spot.
Some degree of predictability is very good. It's important to have predictable juggernauts, and not a league of 8-9, 9-8.

But within that framework, we have some nice variance and unpredictability, I think.
Right now, 49ers are on a 3 game skid, we really have no idea how good Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, and Jacksonville, among others really are. Cincy looked to have a completely lost season not too long ago.

We have some things we think we know, but still a lot of questions to be answered.

And it seems like something crazy happens every week.

 

[FairWarning]

Is this year starting a trend or is it an outlier?

Pre-season odds in the NFC had the Lions, Eagles, 49ers and Saints all as the favorites to win their divisions and the Cowboys, Seahawks the next two teams in the playoffs.

The AFC had the Chiefs, Jags, Bills and Bengals. The Chiefs and Jags are in first and the other two are in second. The teams that are in first in those divisions are the Dolphins and Ravens who were favorites to be wildcard teams.

So right now preseason rankings are hitting at about a 75 percent clip and even the misses aren't that shocking.

It boils down to having a competent qb and injuries. The elite teams have avoided the landmines.

 

[-OZ-]

For the season, possibly. But there are always some surprises. the cardinals beat the cowboys, the Texans are in second place, Miami is better than expected (or just beating lesser teams), the patriots have a legit chance at picking #1, and the bills don’t look nearly as good as expected. For players, did you expect Stroud, Goff and Howell to be among the leading passers? Desmond Ridder to lead the league in game winning drives and be benched? Zack Moss and Mostert to be among the leading runners?

 

[FairWarning]

For the season, possibly. But there are always some surprises. the cardinals beat the cowboys, the Texans are in second place, Miami is better than expected (or just beating lesser teams), the patriots have a legit chance at picking #1, and the bills don’t look nearly as good as expected. For players, did you expect Stroud, Goff and Howell to be among the leading passers? Desmond Ridder to lead the league in game winning drives and be benched? Zack Moss and Mostert to be among the leading runners?

I did expect Goff to be near the top, played him as a longshot to win MVP. Goff has been amazingly consistent. .

 

[Ilov80s]

Is this year starting a trend or is it an outlier?

Pre-season odds in the NFC had the Lions, Eagles, 49ers and Saints all as the favorites to win their divisions and the Cowboys, Seahawks the next two teams in the playoffs.

The AFC had the Chiefs, Jags, Bills and Bengals. The Chiefs and Jags are in first and the other two are in second. The teams that are in first in those divisions are the Dolphins and Ravens who were favorites to be wildcard teams.

So right now preseason rankings are hitting at about a 75 percent clip and even the misses aren't that shocking.

It boils down to having a competent qb and injuries. The elite teams have avoided the landmines.

Yeah, QB injuries especially. It just so happens the big QB injuries have been to Richardson, Rodgers, Fields, Cousins. If that had been Mahomes, Lawrence, Dak and Lamar than we would have a really wild season on our hands. It's just random luck.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Is this year starting a trend or is it an outlier?

Pre-season odds in the NFC had the Lions, Eagles, 49ers and Saints all as the favorites to win their divisions and the Cowboys, Seahawks the next two teams in the playoffs.

The AFC had the Chiefs, Jags, Bills and Bengals. The Chiefs and Jags are in first and the other two are in second. The teams that are in first in those divisions are the Dolphins and Ravens who were favorites to be wildcard teams.

So right now preseason rankings are hitting at about a 75 percent clip and even the misses aren't that shocking.

It boils down to having a competent qb and injuries. The elite teams have avoided the landmines.

Yeah, QB injuries especially. It just so happens the big QB injuries have been to Richardson, Rodgers, Fields, Cousins. If that had been Mahomes, Lawrence, Dak and Lamar than we would have a really wild season on our hands. It's just random luck.

A perfect example is 2023 Joe Burrow. Their season was going poop until he came back fully from his injury.

 

[msudaisy26]

For the season, possibly. But there are always some surprises. the cardinals beat the cowboys, the Texans are in second place, Miami is better than expected (or just beating lesser teams), the patriots have a legit chance at picking #1, and the bills don’t look nearly as good as expected. For players, did you expect Stroud, Goff and Howell to be among the leading passers? Desmond Ridder to lead the league in game winning drives and be benched? Zack Moss and Mostert to be among the leading runners?

I agree that week to week is still pretty unpredictable, and players as well due to injuries and such. I was thinking more about the teams and entire seaso. Since we are at the halfway point.

 

[msudaisy26]

I understand injuries happen and we don't know exactly how good some teams are. I just think it is pretty crazy that the season is going as Vegas/betting markets predicted.

Are they too good or is the NFL going the way of the NBA? Every year you have a handful of haves and the rest of the league is looking to next year.

 

[ChiefD]

I understand injuries happen and we don't know exactly how good some teams are. I just think it is pretty crazy that the season is going as Vegas/betting markets predicted.

Are they too good or is the NFL going the way of the NBA? Every year you have a handful of haves and the rest of the league is looking to next year.

I agree with this.

On top of that you have games where there is always that mystery flag that shows up to keep things close. So to me the league is getting predictable-ish in several ways.

The NFL is a terrible product right now. Any game that you can’t cheer a big play until you know there isn‘t a flag is broken.

 

[dschuler]

Is this year starting a trend or is it an outlier?

Pre-season odds in the NFC had the Lions, Eagles, 49ers and Saints all as the favorites to win their divisions and the Cowboys, Seahawks the next two teams in the playoffs.

The AFC had the Chiefs, Jags, Bills and Bengals. The Chiefs and Jags are in first and the other two are in second. The teams that are in first in those divisions are the Dolphins and Ravens who were favorites to be wildcard teams.

So right now preseason rankings are hitting at about a 75 percent clip and even the misses aren't that shocking.

I think you are right. The rules tilting to the absolute necessity of good QB play have significantly contributed to this. I actually think there is less parity now in the NFL than any point in the last 40 years and less than all other major sports. Only one QB drafted since 2012 has even won a Super Bowl. That’s insane to even think about. Compare it to the MLB World Series, where the Rangers were 50-1 won the title and the Diamondbacks were 125-1 made the finals. That would be like the Panthers and Raiders making the Super Bowl, which would never happen in todays game.

 

[FairWarning]

Is this year starting a trend or is it an outlier?

Pre-season odds in the NFC had the Lions, Eagles, 49ers and Saints all as the favorites to win their divisions and the Cowboys, Seahawks the next two teams in the playoffs.

The AFC had the Chiefs, Jags, Bills and Bengals. The Chiefs and Jags are in first and the other two are in second. The teams that are in first in those divisions are the Dolphins and Ravens who were favorites to be wildcard teams.

So right now preseason rankings are hitting at about a 75 percent clip and even the misses aren't that shocking.

I think you are right. The rules tilting to the absolute necessity of good QB play have significantly contributed to this. I actually think there is less parity now in the NFL than any point in the last 40 years and less than all other major sports. Only one QB drafted since 2012 has even won a Super Bowl. That’s insane to even think about. Compare it to the MLB World Series, where the Rangers were 50-1 won the title and the Diamondbacks were 125-1 made the finals. That would be like the Panthers and Raiders making the Super Bowl, which would never happen in todays game.

I agree with this, but let’s take it a step further. Because of the injury risk, maybe we should move away from running qbs. I love them for fantasy, but it’s really hard to build a team around one.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Who had the Bills and Bengals outside of the playoffs after 10 weeks, behind teams such as the Colts, Texans, Steelers, and Browns?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Because of the injury risk, maybe we should move away from running qbs. I love them for fantasy, but it’s really hard to build a team around one.

Yeah, fantasy scoring rules warp the public's opinion on these guys making them more attractive due to scoring rules. My league gives the same scoring for QB rushing as passing, which balances things out from a FF perspective. Since the real NFL has no such cheat codes maybe they should follow your advice.

 

[jobarules]

I understand injuries happen and we don't know exactly how good some teams are. I just think it is pretty crazy that the season is going as Vegas/betting markets predicted.

Are they too good or is the NFL going the way of the NBA? Every year you have a handful of haves and the rest of the league is looking to next year.

It's very predictable. Teams with good QBs win