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Is it insane to go Rodgers in the 1st and Finley in the 4th? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter SCT
- Start date
Mr. Fusion
Footballguy
I'm sure that will be the draft position of each in many, many leagues. If you draft late in the first I think you could do much worse. That offense looks like the Rams' Greatest Show on Turf with Finley playing the part of Isaac Bruce and Jennings playing the part of Torry Holt.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
Why would that be insane? Isn't that pretty much where they go on average?
sjacksonfan
Footballguy
12 teams? 6 pt passing td? Sure.
Pipes
Footballguy
Not sure you'll get Finley in the 4th...where do you pick? In some other Finley threads he's been going in the 1st couple of picks in the 4th round. After last night's game the Finley hype is at an all time high. I'm trying to get him in every league I can but it's coming to a point where he's becoming too costly. If you can get him in the 4th great....I agree that's going to be a great combo this year.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Looking at the RB/WR/TE positions, with the Rams, Faulk, Bruce and Holt were getting most of the glory, with guys like Hakim, Proehl, Roland Williams, etc. all having their moments, but not enough to really put a dent in the numbers of the big three. Ryan Grant, while a good RB capable of putting up good numbers, is no Marshall Faulk, and the Packers simply have so many good receivers that I think they will spread the ball around a lot from week to week, which will make it hard for any one of them to dominate their position, kind of like the Saints last year. Heck, for as good as Greg Jennings was last year, he didn't score very much, and I could see the same thing happening this year (although I think he is likely to score at least 8 or 9 times, but maybe not as many as you would think for the number 1 WR in an offense with a QB capable of putting up 35+ TD passes). Time will tell.
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
That's fine, but it means you'll have to reach for Jahvid Best and take him in the 3rd to fill out the all-pre-season hype team.
Yes with Rodgers but Finley was 5.05 adp.I pick 5th....I have a hard time taking Rodgers in first, but am tempted to combine them.
The Jerk
Footballguy
I wouldn't necessarily call it crazy, particularly the Rodgers in the first part. The one thing I would say is that Finley in the 4th is not a value pick. Now, value picks can be overrated, as getting the best player available can be better than waiting for value and getting a significantly weaker player. Still, most people are salivating over Finley due to his 2010 preseason (and last year's too) and because of his strong finish down the stretch in 2009.
Most people would probably be surprised that not only was Finley not a the #1 tight end in that span, but he didn't even make the podium, so to speak
2009 Tight Ends, Weeks 11-17, FBG scoring:
1. Gates, 30-489-6 84.9 pts
2. V.Davis, 33-472-6 83.2 pts
3. Da.Clark, 36-338-7 75.8 pts
4. FINLEY, 38-416-4 65.6 PTS
5. Witten, 45-592-1 65.2 pts
6. Shiancoe, 31-320-5 62.0 pts
7. Celek, 30-438-3 61.8 pts
8. F.Davis, 27-310-5 61.0 pts
As you can see, Finley fell significantly short of three tight ends, and was only fractions of a point per week better than the 5th-8th best tight ends in that span.
I like Finley and love the Packers offense, but it's still important to keep the facts from getting obliterated by the hype.
Most people would probably be surprised that not only was Finley not a the #1 tight end in that span, but he didn't even make the podium, so to speak
2009 Tight Ends, Weeks 11-17, FBG scoring:
1. Gates, 30-489-6 84.9 pts
2. V.Davis, 33-472-6 83.2 pts
3. Da.Clark, 36-338-7 75.8 pts
4. FINLEY, 38-416-4 65.6 PTS
5. Witten, 45-592-1 65.2 pts
6. Shiancoe, 31-320-5 62.0 pts
7. Celek, 30-438-3 61.8 pts
8. F.Davis, 27-310-5 61.0 pts
As you can see, Finley fell significantly short of three tight ends, and was only fractions of a point per week better than the 5th-8th best tight ends in that span.
I like Finley and love the Packers offense, but it's still important to keep the facts from getting obliterated by the hype.
Nah, I can reach for Best in the 5th in all my mocks!
Todem
Footballguy
I am sitting with the 5th overall pick this Sunday in my one and only 12 team redraft. We do have 6 Pt's for all TD's. PPR scoring as well.
My thinking is...I can lock up Frank Gore who after the top 4 is one of the only true multi purpose elite backs left with no question marks or I can go Aaron Rodgers who I do believe will be the #1 QB this year.
My brain tells me grab Gore and get the very best QB left in the second (Peyton, Brady or Rivers) then fill my roster out as I always do with best player available at RB or WR for the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks.
Big decision indeed. I have tried the QB early strategy a few times...it never works.
Gore is the pick at number 5 unless a suprise falls to me in the form of MJD or Ray Rice. If I were picking past 6th...then yeah I would pull the trigger.
And I never...ever take a TE before the 7th round.
EVER.
My thinking is...I can lock up Frank Gore who after the top 4 is one of the only true multi purpose elite backs left with no question marks or I can go Aaron Rodgers who I do believe will be the #1 QB this year.
My brain tells me grab Gore and get the very best QB left in the second (Peyton, Brady or Rivers) then fill my roster out as I always do with best player available at RB or WR for the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks.
Big decision indeed. I have tried the QB early strategy a few times...it never works.
Gore is the pick at number 5 unless a suprise falls to me in the form of MJD or Ray Rice. If I were picking past 6th...then yeah I would pull the trigger.
And I never...ever take a TE before the 7th round.
EVER.
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Sir Psycho
Footballguy
Posted in the A Rodgers thread:
My first 5 pick in a early july draft:
6pts/TD
1pt/10yrds pass
1.11 Rodgers
2.02 Fitz
3.11 Grant
4.02 Best
5.11 Finley
My first 5 pick in a early july draft:
6pts/TD
1pt/10yrds pass
1.11 Rodgers
2.02 Fitz
3.11 Grant
4.02 Best
5.11 Finley
Jason Wood
Zoo York
It's not insane. Ultimately it comes down to whether you're THAT confident Finley will be an elite, difference maker at his position. I've had him TE3 for just about the entire preseason, but I don't think I have, or would, draft him in the 4th and would just look elsewhere. But I can't say it's insane. You would really need a clear plan of attack at the two marquee positions though if you forgo them in two of the first four rounds.
Would you still go Gore if it wasn't ppr? I'm thinking Turner at 5 in non-ppr.....
AtomicDogg97
Footballguy
I agree, the hype on Finley is starting to get ridiculous. Even if he has alot of success, eventually teams will game plan to stop him.
CaptainHook
Footballguy
i actually do think its insane. i was madly in love with finley until last night and now im gona let someone else reach for him and be happy with one of clark/gates/davis
Deuce'sWild
Footballguy
What's the difference in projected pts between the QB in round 2 and Romo or Schaub in the 3rd? I think there is good RB/WR value in the 2nd.
Todem
Footballguy
I agree with that...and I am considering that big time. I also think Eli Manning has a shot to really suprise this year and finish top 5. I may go WR/Rb in the 2nd and just hold off for more value at QB which I think is pretty deep this year.
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I used to be in this camp, but as the fantasy landscape changes it's smart to re-evaluate personal "hard and fast rules" we all seem to impose on ourselves. This being one of those I did for years, until last year when I really looked at how some TEs were scoring the last few seasons.Compare the top 5 TEs from 2003 to the top 5 from 2009:
Code:
2003 PPR TE Scoring Top 51. 47. Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE 211.10 13.1942. 63. Sharpe, Shannon DEN TE 187.00 11.6883. 91. Heap, Todd BAL TE 153.30 9.5814. 140. Jones, Freddie ARI TE 119.70 7.4815. 158. McMichael, Randy MIA TE 113.80 7.1132009 PPR TE Scoring Top 51. 26. Clark, Dallas IND TE 259.50 17.3002. 39. Gates, Antonio SDC TE 234.50 15.6333. 43. Davis, Vernon SFO TE 231.60 15.4404. 56. Celek, Brent PHI TE 204.50 13.6335. 61. Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 199.70 13.313
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Todem
Footballguy
What round could you have taken Celek and Davis in last year.That is the art of drafting TE's or getting WW specials.....every year one or 2 pops up.But I agree you must change your thinking sometimes. If a value presented itself with other guys on the board and I can take a dominating player say in the 5th...I do it. But most of the time once the big 3 TE's are gone...I won't reach on a position run.I used to be in this camp, but as the fantasy landscape changes it's smart to re-evaluate personal "hard and fast rules" we all seem to impose on ourselves. This being one of those I did for years, until last year when I really looked at how some TEs were scoring the last few seasons.Compare the top 5 TEs from 2003 to the top 5 from 2009:I give up trying to make all that line upCode:2003 PPR TE Scoring Top 51. 47. Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE 211.10 13.1942. 63. Sharpe, Shannon DEN TE 187.00 11.6883. 91. Heap, Todd BAL TE 153.30 9.5814. 140. Jones, Freddie ARI TE 119.70 7.4815. 158. McMichael, Randy MIA TE 113.80 7.1132009 PPR TE Scoring Top 51. 26. Clark, Dallas IND TE 259.50 17.3002. 39. Gates, Antonio SDC TE 234.50 15.6333. 43. Davis, Vernon SFO TE 231.60 15.4404. 56. Celek, Brent PHI TE 204.50 13.6335. 61. Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 199.70 13.313
videoguy505
Footballguy
Rogers, Best, Finley, 1-2-3. Too bad I still have the cap hit from having JJ Arrington and Kevan Barlow on my roster.
oukurt
Footballguy
I have to disagree. Would be shocked if he isn't TE1 by a wide margin.
Some would say that there is a big 4 with Gates, Clark, Witten, and Davis. With Finley being a good 5th TE and other decent to good TE's after him, it really makes no sense to draft him as early as the 4th round, imo.Really?What are your projections for him?I ask because there were some REALLY good TE numbers last year:Clark - 1100 yards and 10 TD'sDavis - 965 yards and 13 TD'sGates - 1150 yards and 8 TD's
Lehigh98
Footballguy
CaptainHook
Footballguy
his projecttion would obviously have to be the greatest season by any te of all time..lol. so yea finley in the 4th is an absolute reach
Todem
Footballguy
ClarkDavisGates
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Only first or middle?... should be both.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
There was more seperation back in 2003, THAT was the time to reach for the top TE.I used to be in this camp, but as the fantasy landscape changes it's smart to re-evaluate personal "hard and fast rules" we all seem to impose on ourselves. This being one of those I did for years, until last year when I really looked at how some TEs were scoring the last few seasons.Compare the top 5 TEs from 2003 to the top 5 from 2009:I give up trying to make all that line upCode:2003 PPR TE Scoring Top 51. 47. Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE 211.10 13.1942. 63. Sharpe, Shannon DEN TE 187.00 11.6883. 91. Heap, Todd BAL TE 153.30 9.5814. 140. Jones, Freddie ARI TE 119.70 7.4815. 158. McMichael, Randy MIA TE 113.80 7.1132009 PPR TE Scoring Top 51. 26. Clark, Dallas IND TE 259.50 17.3002. 39. Gates, Antonio SDC TE 234.50 15.6333. 43. Davis, Vernon SFO TE 231.60 15.4404. 56. Celek, Brent PHI TE 204.50 13.6335. 61. Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 199.70 13.313
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shader
Footballguy
wow that preseason game got people a little jacked, huh? You said non-ppr?
I remember in their hayday (sp?), Gates and Gonzalez went in the 4th, and that was when most TE's got you 3-4 ppg and those two were 7-8.
In today's age, where there are 10-12 really good TE's, it's terrible value to take Finley in the 4th round.
I remember in their hayday (sp?), Gates and Gonzalez went in the 4th, and that was when most TE's got you 3-4 ppg and those two were 7-8.
In today's age, where there are 10-12 really good TE's, it's terrible value to take Finley in the 4th round.
Todem
Footballguy
CaptainHook
Footballguy
good post shader thats a perfect explanation of why taking finley in the 4th is crazy. (unless you actually are predicting the greatest te season ever by far(which is also crazy))
David Yudkin
Footballguy
ADP noted for each player. It would be hard to assemble the picks as outlined at the spots suggesed.
GridironMenace
Footballguy
Uhhh, so QB in the 2nd doesn't follow the "QB early strategy"?
skillz
Footballguy
The Reggie Bush hype his rookie year was also absurd - some people were trading LT for him in dynasty leagues.
GoNads
Footballguy
Done that and feeling pretty good about it. Picking out of the 8th hole (reverse seed), I decided this was the year to wait on RBs and then reach for the ones with high ceiling; high risk, high reward. Finley being there on the 5th just fit in with the the overall strategy...1.08: Rodgers2.05: Fitz3.05: Best4.08: Stewart5.08: Finley
The Jerk
Footballguy
I can still remember the classic Reggie Bush vs. Adrian Peterson thread from a few years back. There were many die-hards on the RB train.The Reggie Bush hype his rookie year was also absurd - some people were trading LT for him in dynasty leagues.
shader
Footballguy
my enemy in one thread and an ally in the other
I would love to see who you ended up with for your WR slots.........not counting Fitz, as in not counting on Leinart.Done that and feeling pretty good about it. Picking out of the 8th hole (reverse seed), I decided this was the year to wait on RBs and then reach for the ones with high ceiling; high risk, high reward. Finley being there on the 5th just fit in with the the overall strategy...1.08: Rodgers2.05: Fitz3.05: Best4.08: Stewart5.08: Finley
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GoNads
Footballguy
Hines Ward (7th rd)Lee Evans (8th)Also have L. Moore and D. Thomas as late round throw ins... About Fitz, I really struggled between him and Calvin, and ended up letting my ranking sheets win over my gut there... still not sure... That's about the only second guessing I have with the early rounds though...I would love to see who you ended up with for your WR slots.........not counting Fitz, as in not counting on Leinart.Done that and feeling pretty good about it. Picking out of the 8th hole (reverse seed), I decided this was the year to wait on RBs and then reach for the ones with high ceiling; high risk, high reward. Finley being there on the 5th just fit in with the the overall strategy...1.08: Rodgers2.05: Fitz3.05: Best4.08: Stewart5.08: Finley
Keith1
Footballguy
in a 12 team 6 pt TD league where Rodgers is going in the 1st, guys like Schaub and Romo will not make it to the 3rd round. They'll be grabbed mid-late 2nd round (as will surely happen in my league).
