Is it insane to go Rodgers in the 1st and Finley in the 4th? (1 Viewer)

[Bamac]

And I never...ever take a TE before the 7th round.EVER.

I used to be in this camp, but as the fantasy landscape changes it's smart to re-evaluate personal "hard and fast rules" we all seem to impose on ourselves. This being one of those I did for years, until last year when I really looked at how some TEs were scoring the last few seasons.Compare the top 5 TEs from 2003 to the top 5 from 2009:

2003 PPR TE Scoring Top 51.	47.	Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE	211.10	13.1942.	63.	Sharpe, Shannon DEN TE	187.00	11.6883.	91.	Heap, Todd BAL TE			153.30	9.5814.	140.	Jones, Freddie ARI TE			119.70	7.4815.	158.	McMichael, Randy MIA TE	113.80	7.1132009 PPR TE Scoring Top 51.	26.	Clark, Dallas IND TE			259.50	17.3002.	39.	Gates, Antonio SDC TE	234.50	15.6333.	43.	Davis, Vernon SFO TE			231.60	15.4404.	56.	Celek, Brent PHI TE			204.50	13.6335.	61.	Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE	199.70	13.313

I give up trying to make all that line up

There was more seperation back in 2003, THAT was the time to reach for the top TE.

 

[detox]

Rodgers went in the 1st and Finley went in the 4th in my local league.

And this was last week........

 

[ArcticEdge]

I like Favre/Shiancoe better..

 

[The Jerk]

I am sitting with the 5th overall pick this Sunday in my one and only 12 team redraft. We do have 6 Pt's for all TD's. PPR scoring as well.My thinking is...I can lock up Frank Gore who after the top 4 is one of the only true multi purpose elite backs left with no question marks or I can go Aaron Rodgers who I do believe will be the #1 QB this year.My brain tells me grab Gore and get the very best QB left in the second (Peyton, Brady or Rivers) then fill my roster out as I always do with best player available at RB or WR for the 3rd, 4th and 5th picks.Big decision indeed. I have tried the QB early strategy a few times...it never works.Gore is the pick at number 5 unless a suprise falls to me in the form of MJD or Ray Rice. If I were picking past 6th...then yeah I would pull the trigger.And I never...ever take a TE before the 7th round.EVER.

What's the difference in projected pts between the QB in round 2 and Romo or Schaub in the 3rd? I think there is good RB/WR value in the 2nd.

in a 12 team 6 pt TD league where Rodgers is going in the 1st, guys like Schaub and Romo will not make it to the 3rd round. They'll be grabbed mid-late 2nd round (as will surely happen in my league).

Except for a Packer homer league, I would agree with the thought that any league in which Rodgers goes in the first will see probably 3-4 more QBs go in the second round. Add in the 6 pt passing TD factor and the number swells to probably 6-7. Of course it's possible one of the consensus top 7 QBs makes it to the very early third round, in particular Rivers, but it's not something that can be counted on in a 6 pt passing TD league.

 

[Steelfan7]

I agree, the hype on Finley is starting to get ridiculous. Even if he has alot of success, eventually teams will game plan to stop him.

GB has too many weapons to worry about teams developing a consistent game plan to stop Finley. Finley will get his which will be over 1,000 yds and at least 12 Tds.

 

[Steelfan7]

Everyone has liked Rodgers and Finley all offseason, but their interest has uber mega-asloded all over one preseason game against a mediocre to weak defense playing vanilla schemes.

This is absurd.

It's more than 1 preseason game that has people excited about Finley this yr. 1st preseason game he had 2 catchs and 30 yds in just a few series and game two he had 4 - 48 and Td and also note that in game 2 he caught pass and was down at the 1yd line then game 3 he puts up 6 - 85 1Td. Rodgers loves throwing to him.

 

[two_dollars]

I agree, the hype on Finley is starting to get ridiculous. Even if he has alot of success, eventually teams will game plan to stop him.

GB has too many weapons to worry about teams developing a consistent game plan to stop Finley. Finley will get his which will be over 1,000 yds and at least 12 Tds.

so he's all but a shoo-in to break the record for TD rec's for TE's this year?

 

[The Jerk]

I agree, the hype on Finley is starting to get ridiculous. Even if he has alot of success, eventually teams will game plan to stop him.

GB has too many weapons to worry about teams developing a consistent game plan to stop Finley. Finley will get his which will be over 1,000 yds and at least 12 Tds.

Everyone has liked Rodgers and Finley all offseason, but their interest has uber mega-asloded all over one preseason game against a mediocre to weak defense playing vanilla schemes.

This is absurd.

It's more than 1 preseason game that has people excited about Finley this yr. 1st preseason game he had 2 catchs and 30 yds in just a few series and game two he had 4 - 48 and Td and also note that in game 2 he caught pass and was down at the 1yd line then game 3 he puts up 6 - 85 1Td. Rodgers loves throwing to him.

The problem some of us have is that you and others are setting a FLOOR for Finley (you said over 1000 yards, at least 12 TDs) that represents production that has never happened at the tight end position. Nine TEs have exceeded 1000 yards in a season, and two have exceeded 11 TDs (Gonzalez in '04, V.Davis in '09). Both Gonzalez and Davis failed to gain 1000 yards in that season, so the combination has never happened. To frame it differently, it's roughly the equivalent of suggesting that the floor for Aaron Rodgers is 4700 yards passing (10th all time) and 48 TDs (tied for third best all-time). I suppose even you would suggest that's a floor that is too high to set, but it's the exact same floor in terms of all time performance you have set for Finley.

I won't be surprised to see Finley approach 1000 yards receiving and 10 TDs, as that was roughly the pace he was on for the final seven games of 2009. The problem I have with advocating very early drafting of Finley is that over that seven game span he was 6th among TEs in both yards and TDs. I mentioned earlier that he was 4th in FBG pts among TEs over Weeks 11-17 and he barely was ahead of the next quartet of TEs. Unless Finley has literally an unprecedented season, he is highly unlikely to gain owners the separation of production that warrants making him a very high selection.

 

[Steelfan7]

I agree, the hype on Finley is starting to get ridiculous. Even if he has alot of success, eventually teams will game plan to stop him.

GB has too many weapons to worry about teams developing a consistent game plan to stop Finley. Finley will get his which will be over 1,000 yds and at least 12 Tds.

Everyone has liked Rodgers and Finley all offseason, but their interest has uber mega-asloded all over one preseason game against a mediocre to weak defense playing vanilla schemes.

This is absurd.

It's more than 1 preseason game that has people excited about Finley this yr. 1st preseason game he had 2 catchs and 30 yds in just a few series and game two he had 4 - 48 and Td and also note that in game 2 he caught pass and was down at the 1yd line then game 3 he puts up 6 - 85 1Td. Rodgers loves throwing to him.

The problem some of us have is that you and others are setting a FLOOR for Finley (you said over 1000 yards, at least 12 TDs) that represents production that has never happened at the tight end position. Nine TEs have exceeded 1000 yards in a season, and two have exceeded 11 TDs (Gonzalez in '04, V.Davis in '09). Both Gonzalez and Davis failed to gain 1000 yards in that season, so the combination has never happened. To frame it differently, it's roughly the equivalent of suggesting that the floor for Aaron Rodgers is 4700 yards passing (10th all time) and 48 TDs (tied for third best all-time). I suppose even you would suggest that's a floor that is too high to set, but it's the exact same floor in terms of all time performance you have set for Finley.

I won't be surprised to see Finley approach 1000 yards receiving and 10 TDs, as that was roughly the pace he was on for the final seven games of 2009. The problem I have with advocating very early drafting of Finley is that over that seven game span he was 6th among TEs in both yards and TDs. I mentioned earlier that he was 4th in FBG pts among TEs over Weeks 11-17 and he barely was ahead of the next quartet of TEs. Unless Finley has literally an unprecedented season, he is highly unlikely to gain owners the separation of production that warrants making him a very high selection.

So you're debating whether Finley scores an extra 2 Tds in my prediction vs yours? Finley will be the #1 TE this yr and it won't be close.

 

[The Jerk]

So you're debating whether Finley scores an extra 2 Tds in my prediction vs yours? Finley will be the #1 TE this yr and it won't be close.

Not at all. Not even close. First of all, I didn't project. I just prorated his production from the second half of the season. You're also completely missing my point, likely on purpose, but that's a typical game for the Shark Pool.Your phrasing makes your projection Finley's floor. My wording (key word being APPROACH) implies that is Finley's ceiling. There's a HUGE difference when one person's projected floor is higher than another person's projected ceiling.

Finley may be the #1 tight end this year, but I wouldn't for a second suggest "it won't be close." The whole point of waiting until at least the fifth round is because Finley figures to generate little separation at the TE position if indeed he is #1. Unless your league gives double points only to Packers players, that is. Twice in this thread I've pointed out that Finley was 4th among TEs from Weeks 11-17 last season. And it wasn't a close 4th; Finley was five times closer to 8th than he was to 1st. Finley was nearly three points PER GAME behind both Gates and Vernon Davis in that stretch in standard FBG scoring. I won't bore everyone else by re-posting all the numbers, but they are listed earlier in the thread.