Is it rigged? - Official Thread - (1 Viewer)

[Joe T]

Maybe it is just my lack of success from the first couple of weeks, but I'm starting to get the feeling that the large tournaments are either rigged or just not winnable. I cannot decide which.

I thought it would be good to start a thread to see if anyone else has similar suspicions.

If I look at the current leader in the Sunday million, the username has zero contest wins on FanDuel. He / she / it has never won a game of any kind. So is it just luck that this person who has never won any game at FanDuel lucks into a perfect lineup this weekend? It is difficult to believe, but not impossible. The problem I have is this is not the only case.

I entered a bunch of tournaments this weekend. I can find at least 7 or 8 large tournaments where the winner has zero or one total win. Is it just beginners luck? Does that mean no skill is involved? Or is there reason to be suspicious of these accounts?

I'm looking at the leading roster for the 100k Sunday NFL squib. The username has one total win on FanDuel, yet he rostered Travis Benjamin of Cleveland who happened to go off for 31 points today. I'm starting to think listening to podcasts and reading on DFS is a waste of time each week because I spent a lot of time this week and never heard Travis Benjamin's name mentioned once. Yet a guy with one total win decides to roster him and an almost perfect lineup.

In fact, the top 5 leaders in the 100k Sunday NFL squib have 1 win, zero wins, zero wins, zero wins, and zero wins.

I can find multiple instances of this happening.

Maybe it is luck. Maybe it is rigged. Maybe it is just not winnable. I can't decide.

 

[Peyton Marino]

makes u think

 

[Quint]

can't be rigged. too much $$$ involved.

gotta remember: DK and FD have been putting on an advertising blitz like nothing i've seen, and it's probably bringing in a boatload of new/first-time DFS players. blind squirrel + nut? that's my guess. guys like Condia are still taking way more $$$ out of Multi-entry GPP than these one-off players.

also, Magic Football is 95% luck and 5% luck.

 

[Quint]

You Aren't Good Enough to Wine Money Playing Daily Fantasy Football

 

[astukas]

No, its not rigged.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

It's only Week 2, and the large majority of people playing DFS are brand new this year. So an awful lot will have zero wins.

 

[Joe T]

can't be rigged. too much $$$ involved.

Aren't these contradictory?

And didn't they make the same misguided argument about online poker?

 

[Joe T]

It's only Week 2, and the large majority of people playing DFS are brand new this year. So an awful lot will have zero wins.

How are so many people (beginners) coming up with Travis Benjamin and other long shots?

 

[Quint]

can't be rigged. too much $$$ involved.

Aren't these contradictory?

And didn't they make the same misguided argument about online poker?

different apples: "online poker" = illegal in US....DFS = legal (in most states)

if it came to light that FD had some kind impropriety aligned with their players, they'd be done. losing millions in the process.

 

[Quint]

It's only Week 2, and the large majority of people playing DFS are brand new this year. So an awful lot will have zero wins.

How are so many people (beginners) coming up with Travis Benjamin and other long shots?

Benjamin was a decent punt today, especially at DK if you had the CLE D/ST too.

 

[Bri]

what does win mean? first place?

 

[Joe T]

I just checked the interactive value chart. Travis Benjamin was WR 70ish.

I checked Dodds value chart and Travis Benjamin was the third to last WR listed in a really long list.

I may just start entering random teams with no insight at all.

 

[Joe T]

what does win mean? first place?

Yes.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

It's only Week 2, and the large majority of people playing DFS are brand new this year. So an awful lot will have zero wins.

How are so many people (beginners) coming up with Travis Benjamin and other long shots?

People came up with Travis Benjamin the same way they also came up with Taylor Gabriel, Andre Roberts, Stedman Bailey, and Harry Douglas.

 

[astukas]

It's only Week 2, and the large majority of people playing DFS are brand new this year. So an awful lot will have zero wins.

How are so many people (beginners) coming up with Travis Benjamin and other long shots?

He was less than 1% owned. Look at the bottom of the standings and you'll find a ton of other "random" guys that did new players took that did nothing.

 

[Bri]

what does win mean? first place?

Yes.

aww geesh I bet 80% have never done that

 

[Joe T]

It's only Week 2, and the large majority of people playing DFS are brand new this year. So an awful lot will have zero wins.

How are so many people (beginners) coming up with Travis Benjamin and other long shots?

He was less than 1% owned. Look at the bottom of the standings and you'll find a ton of other "random" guys that did new players took that did nothing.

This is actually a good idea. I took a look at the bottom of the standings (starting with the rosters that are actually completed).

You know what I saw? A bunch of Keenan Allen's 0.6 points, Roddy White's 0.0 points, and Kendall Wright's whatever close to zero points.

I looked through about 50 or 60 rosters at the bottom and didn't see any "random" guys much less tons of them.

 

[Bri]

I just checked the interactive value chart. Travis Benjamin was WR 70ish.

I checked Dodds value chart and Travis Benjamin was the third to last WR listed in a really long list.

I may just start entering random teams with no insight at all.

I didn't have Benjamin and only saw one guy that did. I was in 10 or so DK games today and checked a bunch during the game.

Some of what people do in DFS is the exact same as in regular FF-playerX was the reason for...

How many threads like that were in the pool all these years? Not the other nine or ten players but one guy is the culprit or reason for winning?

Maybe when Brandon Marshall or TO had some 20 catch 200 yard game or Priest or LJ or LT2 but oh so rarely in FF is it ever just one guy.

Antonio, Jones, ODB owners weren't all that concerned with Benjamin.

Kudos to whomever owned Benjamin. I think it's far fetched to predict that longtime NFL veteran, former top tier safety would be so gullible to fall for a play action fake but...it happened. ETA Kuharsky shows he was held, long enough to wave to ref in vine video on ESPN

 

[SpruceGoose]

if it was rigged they would make fake teams w/ records so people wouldnt make threads like this.

 

[Bhdevault]

I just don't understand how people can't get that out of 20,000+ entries, somebody out there is willing to take a chance on low owned players.

Benjamin was not that off the wall. Maybe that guy is a Browns fan and was at the game? Maybe he's related to Benjamin? Or maybe he just saw a starting WR at a super low price that ALSO returns kicks?

Not everyone thinks the same, and it's those guys that think that way that will win only once in a blue moon.

I look at some of my cash games yesterday and I can't believe who I faced, yet they beat me as yesterday really was an odd day. I laugh knowing that guy took my money this week, but in the long run he WILL lose playing the way he did.

 

[Itchy Amos]

It's only Week 2, and the large majority of people playing DFS are brand new this year. So an awful lot will have zero wins.

How are so many people (beginners) coming up with Travis Benjamin and other long shots?

He was less than 1% owned. Look at the bottom of the standings and you'll find a ton of other "random" guys that did new players took that did nothing.

This is exactly what it is. Benjamin scored at TD last week, so he wasn't totally off the radar. He was inexpensive, which allowed his owners to stock up on two super studs at WR. Those top tier WRs really performed this week so that led to a huge score.

I've found it only slightly harder to cash in Fanduel's big GPP than it is to cash in a 50/50. I think its because there are so many crazy lineups entered.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Pretty sure someone caught condia's lineup change after games had started last year. But FD of course debunked it.

Anything involving that amount of money is rigged and bound to be shady.

 

[Joe T]

Pretty sure someone caught condia's lineup change after games had started last year. But FD of course debunked it.

Anything involving that amount of money is rigged and bound to be shady.

Amen bro

 

[VA703]

is condia still playing?

 

[texasheat]

It's only Week 2, and the large majority of people playing DFS are brand new this year. So an awful lot will have zero wins.

How are so many people (beginners) coming up with Travis Benjamin and other long shots?

You have to factor in the sheer number of entries. Every tournament winner this year will have that guy that you say "How could anyone pick that guy"? That's why guys like you and I won't likely win a tournament.

For every lineup that had Travis Benjamin there were hundreds/thousands of others with guys like Shorts, Ginn Jr., Louis Murphy, etc. Guys that you and I wouldn't pick hoping they hit them when they have a career game. They only seem "suspect" when they happen to hit like Benjamin.

If you are putting all your research into trying to win tournaments, you're wasting your time imo. Tournaments should be viewed as a lottery ticket imo. I play tournaments and focus on cashing, not necessarily winning.

And, No it's not rigged.

All that said... I did good in the big DraftKings tourney yesterday and that is the most fun I've had watching football in a long time. I was fluctuating between 1k-5k in prize money all day. For a $20 it was worth the shot. ONly did one lineup and it did well. PS - I had ZERO wins on Draft Kings going into yesterday.

 

[James Daulton]

To be fair, Benjamin had a good game last week and was low cost. I could see a Browns fan picking him, I actually considered him for a moment then wisely decided to go with Eddie Royal.

However, there's a ton of money involved and it's gambling. I'd be surprised if there weren't some kind of shenanigans going on. This is why I play low stakes for fun only.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

total rip off

 

[NixonMask]

So two thoughts.

1. It cant be rigged because theres too much money involved is not a reasonable argument. People are greedy and stupid when it comes to money. As online poker should have demonstrated, some people will insist on cheating even when they dont have to because it seems too easy not to.

2. I *hope* these sites learned the lessons of online poker. DFS should survive congressional inquiry because its already been deemed legal activity in the US, but one scandal is all it would take to shut everything down. Having Disney backing your business is a powerful ally, but they wont jeopardize the brand at large if a partnership with ESPN is doing damage elsewhere.

 

[JoeSteeler]

i was considering Benjamin for a long time because JFF seems to target him and with his speed he could break a long one but just didn't pull the trigger.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

far too many winners I seen had travis Benjamin in the lineup. seems very fishy to me

 

[Mr E]

I would love to hear this topic discussed on the "On the Couch" podcast.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

far too many winners I seen had travis Benjamin in the lineup. seems very fishy to me

Travis Benjamin had a really good game, so teams that had him were more likely to win.

 

[Chemical X]

well, andy dufresne opened a phony bank account...................

how can you verify anyone actually wins if you don't know who you are playing against?

 

[Bobcat10]

far too many winners I seen had travis Benjamin in the lineup. seems very fishy to me

Travis Benjamin had a really good game, so teams that had him were more likely to win.

Whoa

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

far too many winners I seen had travis Benjamin in the lineup. seems very fishy to me

Travis Benjamin had a really good game, so teams that had him were more likely to win.

So did Antonio Brown

 

[17seconds]

far too many winners I seen had travis Benjamin in the lineup. seems very fishy to me

In a 400K person tourney? Yeah, I imagine there are quite a few

 

[mrip541]

When the field is gigantic it's almost all luck.

 

[17seconds]

When the field is gigantic it's almost all luck.

In the $1M DK $3 tourney, Crockett Gilmore was 0.65% owned. Total flier who hit pretty big.

Still, almost 2,500 people had him. It's a large field.

 

[Joe T]

To be clear, I'm not suggesting that it is shocking that people would have Travis Benjamin in their lineup. That is not in itself that shocking at all given the number of lineups that are entered. I find it shocking that someone would have Travis Benjamin + a perfect lineup. They hit on Benjamin + every other position. The odds on this seem astronomical to me, but it happened in multiple events. Just weird. But maybe these guys with zero wins are really good players.

 

[eoMMan]

When the field is gigantic it's almost all luck.

In the $1M DK $3 tourney, Crockett Gilmore was 0.65% owned. Total flier who hit pretty big.

Still, almost 2,500 people had him. It's a large field.

To be fair, Berry took him in his DK line-up on tv Sunday morning. That have influenced his ownership.

 

[17seconds]

When the field is gigantic it's almost all luck.

In the $1M DK $3 tourney, Crockett Gilmore was 0.65% owned. Total flier who hit pretty big.

Still, almost 2,500 people had him. It's a large field.

To be fair, Berry took him in his DK line-up on tv Sunday morning. That have influenced his ownership.

it was 0.65%

 

[Peyton Marino]

travis benjamin can't melt steel beams imo

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

The big money guys need the system to be legit. Guys like condia will win with a level playing field. For them it's just a math/statistics exercise backed with a significant investment weekly. If controls can be by-passed it puts guys like that at a much higher risk.

And the sites make their money on the rake. They need the system to be legit.

I dunno if someone has or will figure a way to cheat. You can bet your bottom dollar that it won't be the sites or the big pros who have/will do it.

 

[ourmanflint]

To be clear, I'm not suggesting that it is shocking that people would have Travis Benjamin in their lineup. That is not in itself that shocking at all given the number of lineups that are entered. I find it shocking that someone would have Travis Benjamin + a perfect lineup. They hit on Benjamin + every other position. The odds on this seem astronomical to me, but it happened in multiple events. Just weird. But maybe these guys with zero wins are really good players.

Isn't a perfect lineup pretty much what it takes to score 200-250 points? Sure, if you go look at the top teams in any tournament you will find all of the teams that hit on basically every position. That's why they won. As far as Benjamin, have you ever heard of a punt play? You have minimal salary leftover after stocking your lineup with 4x plays and you have to select somebody that just might give you some points? Yea....Benjamin would have certainly been a play for a lot of people.

 

[cheese]

I don't think it's rigged, but I do think the rake is about double what it needs to be. I am all for them making a profit, but it's pretty crazy what they take from every game.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I don't think it's rigged, but I do think the rake is about double what it needs to be. I am all for them making a profit, but it's pretty crazy what they take from every game.

I agree on the higher-priced contests. Should they make 5 times more just because the entry fee is $10 instead of $2? It's not like their costs increase at all.

 

[Assani Fisher]

I don't think it's rigged, but I do think the rake is about double what it needs to be. I am all for them making a profit, but it's pretty crazy what they take from every game.

Neither of the 2 big sites are making profits right now. Both are willing to lose huge for the potential future gains. They are enormous spenders in advertising, they giveaway tons of free stuff to their top customers, and there is often times overlay in their guaranteed prizepool contests. The sites base the rake, in part, off of the winrates of the top X% players- they understand that there needs to be an ecosystem whereby the rake never becomes so much that it prevents there from being a clear class of winning players who are capable of moving up the stakes.

 

[Assani Fisher]

How are so many people (beginners) coming up with Travis Benjamin and other long shots?

You are using selective memory. The ownership % of Travis Benjamin tells you exactly how many people had him, and it is not "so many people" but rather its a very few percentage of people.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting that it is shocking that people would have Travis Benjamin in their lineup. That is not in itself that shocking at all given the number of lineups that are entered. I find it shocking that someone would have Travis Benjamin + a perfect lineup. They hit on Benjamin + every other position. The odds on this seem astronomical to me, but it happened in multiple events. Just weird. But maybe these guys with zero wins are really good players.

The human brain tends to have a number of cognitive biases which make it poor to go by what the odds "seem like" to you. In particular you aren't realizing how the huge number of entries affects how likely a select few of the entries are to look "too good to be true."

The guys with zero wins are not really good players, but rather you are again using selective memory. Your use of selective memory may be the cause of a lot of your misunderstandings. If you want to make statements about a group of people(such as "these guys with zero wins") then you need to look at every single player who fits into that category, not just a select few.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The ownership % of Travis Benjamin tells you exactly how many people had him, and it is not "so many people" but rather its a very few percentage of people.

FanDuel sent out an email today with the site-wide ownership percentages of players in the perfect lineup.

Travis Benjamin was 0.62% owned. Crockett Gillmore was 0.41% owned. Matt Jones was 0.02% owned.

 

[nastynate]

It's been tough sledding so far this year. This week my two main lineups (entered in 12 cash games each) went for 133 and 147. I was in a total of 11 H2Hs, 8 50/50s and the rest in double ups and triple ups.

I broke even!