I think with the chance of so many teams playing a rookie QB that any of them could finish the season with the 1st pick. I also think that if one of those teams ends up with the 1st pick that they wouldn't hesitate to upgrade at the position.
How much of a lock could Andrew Luck lock if Andrew Luck could lock a lock?
IMO, the likely candidates for the #1 pick are the Titans, Bengals, Redskins, Panthers, and Cardinals.
The only teams that would hesitate to take Luck are the Titans and Panthers (presuming Kolb either sucks or isn't on one of these teams). So, it's pretty likely he's #1 unless he self-destructs.
I think you could throw Jacksonville and Miami into the running. The Bills always have a shot at #1 too. And the Lions.
Exactly. At this point last year, Carolina was coming off a "disappointing" 8-8 season, Moore was the QB, with Clausen becoming the future if Moore faltered...365 days later, it is a mess.We often talk about the NFL being a league of parity in regards to the fact that almost anyone can get to the playoffs...I think we forget that almost anyone can get the #1 pick too.
I have thought about this for a while and agree with a couple of posters above that the #1 pick team would more than likely take Luck. In fact, there is just a short list of teams who would either trade the pick or take Luck and then move him. Here are thoughts on these teams (mind you, this is all assuming he plays at a level close to 2010):
San Diego: Rivers is still in his prime and it would make no sense to take Luck
Green Bay: Same situation
St. Louis: Bradford is just one year in, and has done everything to justify his selection as #1 overall.
Atlanta: Ryan has also done a nice job in his first few years and ATL could use the picks for help in other areas....especially since they sold the farm to get Jones.
Baltimore: I think Flacco is "young enough/good enough" for an aging team like Baltimore to package #1 for a couple of impact players (via actual trade or additional picks)
New Orleans: Obviously Brees has done nothing to warrant getting replaced...with that said, I think this decision is harder than it may seem on the surface. But when you add in his age (in two years we would not be having this conversation), his play (lights out) and what he has meant to a rebuilding city (and franchise at the same time), I see them taking the picks.
New York Giants: These guys would be the Wild Card. This has less to do with Manning and more to do with how they like to run the team. Jerry Reece would not feel comfortable knowing he could have had a ton of picks over a two year period when his QB is "fine enough".
Chicago: Late addition...thought long about this one, and this has more to do with what they gave up for Cutler and just the general publicity about his being the man versus skills...with that said, he is young, he throws TDs and would have three years vested in the offense (well, two with Martz). I don't see him going anywhere in the next 12 months.
...and that is the list...and I am probably wrong about a couple of those. Anyone else would keep the pick and take Luck, bar none.
