traderallenpoe
Footballguy
I'm in a dynasty league and have a chance to get him pretty cheap.. wondering the forum's opinion on his future as a fantasy QB for the next 2-3 years
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Is Michael Vick's fantasy career over or is now the time to buy lo (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter traderallenpoe
- Start date
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
Grab him if it's cheap. His elite days are over but he'll still put up points, if not with the eagles then someone else. Im an eagles homer and really don't like Vick but he's good for fantasy and qb is the most highly valued position in the nfl.
Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub
Footballguy
I wouldn't feel confident about him as fantasy starter for next 2-3 years. Even if he is an NFL starter for that duration (far from given), safe to expect decrease in rush stats.
I'd only take him as fantasy backup, who may provide startability with some hot stretches. To me, he's a year-2-year QB now. Not someone you want to make long term commitment to.
He's only guaranteed $3 mil of his 2013 salary. Far from certain he'll be an Eagle then. And his future is also likely tied to Andy Reid's.
And if he switches teams/offenses, his useful fantasy career is over IMO.
I'd only take him as fantasy backup, who may provide startability with some hot stretches. To me, he's a year-2-year QB now. Not someone you want to make long term commitment to.
He's only guaranteed $3 mil of his 2013 salary. Far from certain he'll be an Eagle then. And his future is also likely tied to Andy Reid's.
And if he switches teams/offenses, his useful fantasy career is over IMO.
EBF
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Depends on the price, but I'd be more inclined to buy low in a redraft than in a dynasty. His shelf life is likely gonna be shorter than the pocket passer types due to reliance on his legs. Also wonder how much of his value is tied up in Reid's QB-friendly system and what might happen in Philly if the Eagles don't go deep into the playoffs.
I agree in dynasty I wouldnt want to build my team around him but for redraft purposes he is still a very goos fantasy qb in all but interception penalizing leagues. He has had 2 great weeks and 1 stinker thus far in a pass happy offense with above average starting receivers. I would be looking to buy in redraft ( providing I could roster foles) and sell in dynasty.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
i knew the second he signed that 100 million dollar contract that it was going to be horrible for eagles nation... once d-coordinators got a chance to analyze the tape from his golden year it was over.
why don't the people offering those contracts see this stuff? Most people I discuss football would not have paid vick, chris johnson, shaun alexander and other i can't think of right now. We discuss these things far before the bust and are never surprised
why don't the people offering those contracts see this stuff? Most people I discuss football would not have paid vick, chris johnson, shaun alexander and other i can't think of right now. We discuss these things far before the bust and are never surprised
money.never.sleeps
Footballguy
Isnt that contract heavily backloaded? He'll be cut or the deal with be restructured before he gets close to that $100 millionId but low now in terms of this year and next but the moment he puts up a string (4-5) good games I'd try and sell high if I had bidders.
DaveGrumbles
Footballguy
The yardage is there and we're missing the TDs. I would say this is a buy-low situation. Two or three years? He wouldn't be at the top of my dynasty list because there are too many young QBs that would leave Vick out of future starter plans. But this year in redraft I think he still offers crazy value right now.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
The Eagles are probably the best franchise in the league when it comes to signing players to contracts, and Vick's deal is no exception. The Eagles can walk away from the contract at the end of the season and owe him $3mil at most. And even if they don't cut him at the end of this season, there's no chance in hell he'll be getting anything near $100mil.
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I'm not sure if id want a 5 or 10 year outlook on him but in a redraft there are better matchups underway.
His production vs. opponents played is actually a pretty good barometer for Quality of D/ST play IMO.
19 vs. Cleveland WITH JOE HADEN- a team that has a surprisingly decent pass rush and allows the fewest big plays in the league.
25 vs. Baltimore- a defense that is on a similar level as Clevelands is when they're playing without Suggs.
9 vs. Arizona- Might be the standard this year.
Wait until you get the 30 and 40? point games when hes facing WAS, DET, NO down the line.
I'd like to have (and do have) another QB that has decent matchup solutions with him. At least thats my strategy.
His production vs. opponents played is actually a pretty good barometer for Quality of D/ST play IMO.
19 vs. Cleveland WITH JOE HADEN- a team that has a surprisingly decent pass rush and allows the fewest big plays in the league.
25 vs. Baltimore- a defense that is on a similar level as Clevelands is when they're playing without Suggs.
9 vs. Arizona- Might be the standard this year.
Wait until you get the 30 and 40? point games when hes facing WAS, DET, NO down the line.
I'd like to have (and do have) another QB that has decent matchup solutions with him. At least thats my strategy.
traderallenpoe
Footballguy
the proposed trade would be: Vick and Hankerson for Jermaine Gresham and Titus Young..i would be getting vick end. he also has Foles but wants way too much to include him in the deal. neither player I am giving up is a starter currently, but its a 16 team dynasty so rosters are thin they are both my top backups at the respective positions
need2know
Footballguy
no one cares
pollardsvision
Footballguy
Seems like a moderate buy to me.Odd that a QB averaging 300 yds/game with a pair of 25+ fantasy point games to start the season is even in the buy low discussion in the first place. For people that own him, I'm not sure what's changed since the pre-season to cause such a strong reaction.He's an incomplete RL QB that can be great in fantasy from time to time, yet with high injury risk. He's doing better than expected so far. The only fantasy concern right now, really, is that his rushing yards per game is half of what it usually is. That only takes one huge game to get back on track. If anything, I assume Reid's telling him "when in doubt, please run the damn ball instead of throwing into triple coverage". Makes sense that the running numbers could take off soon.
The Jerk
Footballguy
What's changed?1. The Eagles OLine is down two starters for the season (center, left tackle) and the backup left tackle is also injured.2. Signs now point to his monster 2010 being an exception, whereas before the season, it was possible 2011 was just a down year.3. Vick is getting hit more often than ever this year, making a known injury-prone player an even greater injury risk.4. Andy Reid has opened the door that he could be pulled as a starter. He did backtrack, and I find it unlikely, but it did happen.Vick could truly be a good buy low player, but it's not like he doesn't have concerns attached to him. His numbers would be truly terrible if he had not gotten last two minute scores against both the Browns and Ravens. You can't take them away from him, but he would have had three straight subpar weeks without them. There are multiple reasons his value is low right now.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I don't disagree with any of that.This issue, though, is any of this a surprise or a major change?Obviously, the injuries are new, but Vick getting beat up and turning the ball over aren't new.I don't know numbers for overall pressure and getting hit, but his sack rate (6.7%) is the second-lowest of his career and on par with his PHI career as a whole (6.6%). Having a back-up plan in case Vick gets hurt has always been part of the package.The turnovers are out of control, even by Vick standards, but it's only been 3 games. It seems like, unless the running numbers are in real decline, we're looking at the same old Vick of the past couple of years. Except they are throwing the ball like crazy (which, you know, is a good thing for fantasy). Fantasy Vick and real-life Eagles are getting trashed right now. Yet Vick is a top 5 fantasy QB and the Eagles are 2-1. Both flawed, obviously, but a glass half-full kind of person might say it's good when everything goes wrong and you still get positive results. Maybe it all hits the fan, but this is starting to feel like an overreaction all around. I'm not a huge Vick for fantasy fan, but for those that bought him for the season (even if it was with hesitation), I don't see that it's time to panic.
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Dynasty league I think you need to sell him this year if you want anything for him. Redraft I think he is a good buy low candidate, he has faced some good defenses this year and it should easy up on him. I have him in 2 dynasty leagues and I am in contention in both, so I am going to ride him out this year and hope the young guys I have stashed can be my guys next year.
