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Is Mike Evans the #1 Dynasty WR? (1 Viewer)

Grahamburn said:
Quez said:
Former Buc Steve White @sgw94 broke down the Saints game with some screen caps. For some reason they weren't going to Evans. Maybe we see more out of him tonight.

https://storify.com/sgw94/recapping-the-very-frustrating-loss-to-no?utm_content=storify-pingback&utm_medium=sfy.co-twitter&awesm=sfy.co_s12db&utm_campaign=&utm_source=t.co
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Good stuff. Like I said a few posts up, I think Jameis made a point not to go to Evans in this game, and obviously it was much to the detriment of the team. Had Jackson not had to leave early he would have had a monster game. I imagine if Mike did miss or was late for a meeting this week that mistake in conjunction with all the drops this year was just kind of a last straw for Jameis, and he just kind of said "eff it, I'm not throwing you the freaking ball if you're going to act like this."
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I find this shocking especially since the Bucs are playing for a playoff spot. Then again this can be accurate given Winston is shaping into becoming fine leader.

 
Benching Evans and John Brown and starting Deangelo, Denard, Lacy, Beckham, Allen Robinson, and Watkins.

 
Landry was a DNP. CAnt trust he will play my only other options are Cooper who is also struggling and banged up and Ted Ginn who has lower floor. So reluctantly on the Evans train this week

 
Ugh, it's Evans, who I don't trust, on TNF or Willie Snead on MNF... might just take a shot on Evans due to what has to be a huge volume tonight.

 
starks said:
Abandon the run and give 20 targets to Evans please.
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I agree with that gameplan, although he almost had one of his classic "Evans" drops there. Doug Martin is too good for his own good, so they should probably just force feed Evans from here on out, IMO.

 
Once the stink of this season wears off I'm unloading him in dynasty.. There are too many good WRs and it's really hard for me to watch him week after week not make plays.

And I'm not even talking about the drops, I'm talking about not winning on 50/50 balls or run after the catch or just run by someone with a great route. I will fully admit to having a quick trigger with players but I'm just not seeing a great player, I'm seeing a Michael Floyd. Not that it is bad, but it's not the type of player his dynasty value merits. If I can get elite value (I suspect I will) I'm cashing out as quickly as possible.

How much longer do other dynasty owners plan on holding?

 
Im holding, though I hate that Lovie is coach. I think Winston to Evans will be a good connect for the next few years. I wouldn't blame you though if you get a great offer

 
Soulfly3 said:
The curious case of Mike Evans.

I want to preface this by saying in my own rankings, Mike Evans does not appear at the #1 spot, but I do have him extremely close to it, and above Odell Beckham.

Mike Evans played opposite a very solid career WR by the name of Vincent Jackson, who despite 140 targets, to Mike Evans' 123 - put up 1002/2 on the season.

Mike Evans' Rookie Season: 1051/12. INCREDIBLE

Of course, this doesn't make him the #1 Dynasty WR, there are a ton more factors involved.

For comparison's sake, Mike Evans ranked #24 in the NFL in targets last season.

Mike Evans played with putridity at QB as well.

Mike Evans was a rookie.

Mike Evans had the 4th most TDs in the league.

Mike Evans also missed one game last season.

Mike Evans is only 21 years old. (22 when season starts)

Mike Evans did all THIS, despite only 68 reception. 68. 68! (30th in the league!)

Mike Evans MAY be getting an upgrade at QB, but he proved this season, he can do it without

Physically, he is off the charts... Speed is very good, hands very good, and the kid plays with INTENSITY.

I've always been big on Mike Evans... But maybe it's not as big as it should be.

Thoughts?
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Poor premise with worse supporting evidence.

Why you would rank him over Bechham back in April I do not understand.

Going in to tonights game Evans had 114 targets (leads the team by a lot) 57 receptions he is only catching 50% of his targets which is below average and the team is not likely to continue giving him such high volume in targets unless his completion rate imrpoves. 889 yards at 15.6 yards/reception is very good and makes the lower completion percentage worth it. It is also hit or miss though. 3TD is another example of how variable TD scores can be. Even for a player like Evans who has advantages in size to be used in close.

Evan's should see some improvement in his performance as Winston gains experience. I think he could be a top 12 dynasty WR. He was WR 11 as a rookie in standard leagues. He was WR 17 in PPR last season. Currently he is WR 25 in PPR leagues and WR 29 in standard scoring leagues.

No where near being the #1 dynasty player overall (which the top WR should be)

 
starks said:
Im holding, though I hate that Lovie is coach. I think Winston to Evans will be a good connect for the next few years. I wouldn't blame you though if you get a great offer
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I agree that Lovie is not very WR friendly, but he is getting a ton of targets. It's not like he's on the Vikings getting 3-5 targets a game. He's getting fed, and he's been getting fed against some seriously mediocre and bad secondaries and not doing much with it.

And you have to believe that he is in about as best case scenario as he'll get as far as targets go. VJax has been out most of the year as well as ASJ and to a lesser degree rookie Kenny Bell (who I like as a sleeper in 2016). It's one of those things that for me is just hard to believe. There is never a sure thing, but damn if I wasn't completely sold on him being a 1200/10 guy with much more upside. He's going to have to get a lot more efficient for those lofty expectations.

 
Evans with a lot of poor quality targets here. Hard to catch 60%+ when 1/4 of your targets aren't remotely catchable

 
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Started both Evans and Gurley, so I couldn't have really hoped for more as far as game flow goes. Hopefully they just start unloading Evans direction now.

 
Ilov80s said:
renesauz said:
Evans with a lot of poor quality targets here. Hard to catch 60%+ when 1/4 of your targets aren't remotely catchable
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he made a beautiful catch on the sidelines, but then dropped a ball thrown right on the numbers.
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Yeah...he had a bad drop, but there's been 5 or 6 "targets" tonight that weren't remotely close to being catchable. IN several of those cases, Evans was wide open.

 
renesauz said:
Ilov80s said:
renesauz said:
Evans with a lot of poor quality targets here. Hard to catch 60%+ when 1/4 of your targets aren't remotely catchable
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he made a beautiful catch on the sidelines, but then dropped a ball thrown right on the numbers.
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Yeah...he had a bad drop, but there's been 5 or 6 "targets" tonight that weren't remotely close to being catchable. IN several of those cases, Evans was wide open.
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Passing game is a mess
 
renesauz said:
Ilov80s said:
renesauz said:
Evans with a lot of poor quality targets here. Hard to catch 60%+ when 1/4 of your targets aren't remotely catchable
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he made a beautiful catch on the sidelines, but then dropped a ball thrown right on the numbers.
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Yeah...he had a bad drop, but there's been 5 or 6 "targets" tonight that weren't remotely close to being catchable. IN several of those cases, Evans was wide open.
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Yep. Winston is just not that accurate at this point in his career. That was the knock on him coming out, so we'll see if he can fix it.

 
i benched him for sammy watkins. oh well. hopefully sammy can cover my mess up a bit lol

if landry doesn't play i may be in real trbl also :wall:

 
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renesauz said:
Evans with a lot of poor quality targets here. Hard to catch 60%+ when 1/4 of your targets aren't remotely catchable
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I haven't watched too many Tampa Bay games so perhaps you are right that he has had many targets which were not really catchable. It is certainly a good sign I think that Evans is getting so many targets. I do think Evan's is a good WR who can win in some ways that other WR cannot. This may lead to some of these difficult opportunities at times as well.

Still I am just looking at his statistical performance this season (before tonight's game) and 50% catch rate stands out as significantly below average for WRs. Especially WR with such a high volume of targets. Coaches want to convert 1st downs off of their plays at a higher rate than 50%

Here are players with a similar number of targets (20 more or less)

L.Fitzgerald 129 1,088 7 74%

A.Robinson 128 1,084 12 52%

C.Johnson 123 981 7 58%

M.Crabtree 120 779 7 58%

A.J.Green 115 1,169 8 66%

T.Y.Hilton 115 987 5 50%

M.Evans 114 894 3 50%

A.Cooper 113 932 4 55%

G.Tate 111 675 4 68%

R.Cobb 111 737 6 59%

E.Sanders 108 788 4 53%

E.Decker 107 875 9 62%

T.Benjamin 104 874 5 56%

J.Maclin 103 937 5 70%

B.Cooks 103 869 7 62%

J.Matthews 100 685 4 64%

D.Moncrief 94 669 5 60%

Here are players with similar catch rate (5% more or less)

M.Wilson 51 464 1 55%

M.Wheaton 58 589 3 55%

T.Williams 69 592 3 55%

A.Cooper 113 932 4 55%

M.Wallace 60 403 2 55%

J.Jones 66 660 7 53%

V.Jackson 62 543 3 53%

M.Bryant 72 672 6 53%

E.Sanders 108 788 4 53%

A.Robinson 128 1,084 12 52%

A.Johnson 61 386 3 51%

D.Adams 74 367 1 51%

M.Evans 114 894 3 50%

T.Y.Hilton 115 987 5 50%

N.Washington 80 592 3 50%

D.Green-Beckham 50 415 3 48%

H.Douglas 54 298 2 48%

B.LaFell 63 401 0 48%

T.Ginn 80 645 8 46%

K.Britt 61 480 1 46%

M.Floyd 58 492 3 45%

Catch rate can be affected by a lot of different factors such as QB play (which is affected by offensive line play scheme and defense they are facing) TY Hilton only has a 50% catch rate this season due to Luck missing games and not playing well in games he did play. HIlton had 62% and 59% catch rate the previous two seasons Allen Robinson only has 52% catch rate but he has scored a lot more TD. Something Evans did more of as a rookie than he has been in his second season. Sanders had 71% in 2014 with Manning in the Gase offense.

Most of the players who have similar catch rate to what Evans has currently only see about half of the targets as he has gotten.

Tonights game Evans had 17 targets 9 receptions 157 yards 17.4 ypc 52.9% catch rate.

 
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The crazy thing is they always give Evans a chance to win those 50/50 battles along the sideline down the field, and he rewards them pretty often. That's his bread and butter right now. But then they don't give him the chance at a similar ball in the endzone. Its headache-inducing.

 
Evans and Winston have bright futures. I think Evans returns bottom wr1 #'s with high upside going forward. Nice game and volume.

 
I haven't seen many Bucs games, but if that was any indication of how they normally are, Evans's low catch rate isn't remotely his fault. Winston's balls sailed so much he would've won a regata.

 
Steel Curtainrod said:
He's #1 in my book after 27 PPR points. Many of those "targets" were straight garbage
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A lot of heaping on Jameis today for inaccuracy, but without Vincent Jackson the Bucs are rolling out Evans and two un-drafted free agent rookies at WR. He was basically just throwing the ball away in Evans' direction because nobody is open.

 
tone1oc said:
Once the stink of this season wears off I'm unloading him in dynasty.. There are too many good WRs and it's really hard for me to watch him week after week not make plays.

And I'm not even talking about the drops, I'm talking about not winning on 50/50 balls or run after the catch or just run by someone with a great route. I will fully admit to having a quick trigger with players but I'm just not seeing a great player, I'm seeing a Michael Floyd. Not that it is bad, but it's not the type of player his dynasty value merits. If I can get elite value (I suspect I will) I'm cashing out as quickly as possible.

How much longer do other dynasty owners plan on holding?
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He's definitely a hold for me. I think as Winston improves his accuracy (he looked pretty bad last night) and more time together, Evans will be a beast. I'd like to see him used as a red zone option more often.

 
I need to watch the game but you guys seem really down on him. So he's not Antonio Brown or OBJ but seems like he's a 75 1,000 8 type guy for years to come. What's the problem?

 
FreshiZ said:
I need to watch the game but you guys seem really down on him. So he's not Antonio Brown or OBJ but seems like he's a 75 1,000 8 type guy for years to come. What's the problem?
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I think thats maybe even a little under estimated, but still.

You guys didnt expect a little regression with a rookie qb and an oline that is pretty awful? Also, doug martins resurgence hasnt helped evans at all

 
Ranked decently this week. Guy gets yards. Looks like a very tough matchup though with a lot of Byron Jones on him. How confident do people feel? I want play Juju but the groin is concerning. It also doesn't help that Evans plays at 1 and juju at 4....

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
Ranked decently this week. Guy gets yards. Looks like a very tough matchup though with a lot of Byron Jones on him. How confident do people feel? I want play Juju but the groin is concerning. It also doesn't help that Evans plays at 1 and juju at 4....
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Fairy confident, but that's how I've felt all year with him. Fitz leaned on Jackson and Godwin more than Evans. Winston loved him some Evans and Brate, but even he is starting to spread it around. 80 yds and a TD is what I'm hoping for. (actually if I'm being honest, I'm hoping for 120 yds and 2 TDs, but not expecting anything like that).

 
Jello_Biafra said:
Fairy confident, but that's how I've felt all year with him. Fitz leaned on Jackson and Godwin more than Evans. Winston loved him some Evans and Brate, but even he is starting to spread it around. 80 yds and a TD is what I'm hoping for. (actually if I'm being honest, I'm hoping for 120 yds and 2 TDs, but not expecting anything like that).
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I’ll eat my phone if he has 120, 2 TDs 

I’m starting in PPR and anticipating 8 pts. Anything over 15 and I’m ####### thrilled!

 
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