EBF
Footballguy
In 2010, Cam Newton dominated his NCAA competition, won the Heisman, and became the #1 overall draft pick.
Despite that, he routinely fell outside the top 10 picks of 2011 rookie drafts and was disregarded as a redraft QB option.
In 2011, Robert Griffin dominated his NCAA competition, won the Heisman, and became the #2 overall draft pick.
He is almost unanimously considered a top 5 pick in 2012 rookie drafts and is being taken as a QB1 in some redraft leagues.
Why were these two players treated so differently as rookies despite having such similar profiles on paper?
It's pretty clear in hindsight that Newton was underrated by the FF community, but I also get the sense that maybe RGIII is being overrated precisely because Newton is so fresh in everyone's memory. A year ago the hyper-athletic #1 overall Heisman-winning QB was treated like a nobody in dynasty and redraft formats. Now a player with a very similar profile is being treated as a presumptive star. Has Cam Newton's success unfairly skewed expectations for RGIII, or is RGIII simply that good?
IMO it's a bit of both. I actually like Griffin and I think Washington was smart to make the aggressive move to acquire a potential long term star at QB, but I also feel like Newton's success and the overall performance of QBs last season has made RGIII slightly overvalued this year, particularly in redraft leagues. Cam's rookie year was probably the best ever by a QB. I don't expect Griffin to have the same success running the ball, so if he's going to live up to his FF hype immediately then he'll have to be a very good passer right away. Is he really a good bet to come in and outplay guys like Cutler and Flacco as a rookie? I'd argue no. I've got no beef with taking him in the top 6 of a rookie draft, but I wouldn't touch him in a redraft league.
Despite that, he routinely fell outside the top 10 picks of 2011 rookie drafts and was disregarded as a redraft QB option.
In 2011, Robert Griffin dominated his NCAA competition, won the Heisman, and became the #2 overall draft pick.
He is almost unanimously considered a top 5 pick in 2012 rookie drafts and is being taken as a QB1 in some redraft leagues.
Why were these two players treated so differently as rookies despite having such similar profiles on paper?
It's pretty clear in hindsight that Newton was underrated by the FF community, but I also get the sense that maybe RGIII is being overrated precisely because Newton is so fresh in everyone's memory. A year ago the hyper-athletic #1 overall Heisman-winning QB was treated like a nobody in dynasty and redraft formats. Now a player with a very similar profile is being treated as a presumptive star. Has Cam Newton's success unfairly skewed expectations for RGIII, or is RGIII simply that good?
IMO it's a bit of both. I actually like Griffin and I think Washington was smart to make the aggressive move to acquire a potential long term star at QB, but I also feel like Newton's success and the overall performance of QBs last season has made RGIII slightly overvalued this year, particularly in redraft leagues. Cam's rookie year was probably the best ever by a QB. I don't expect Griffin to have the same success running the ball, so if he's going to live up to his FF hype immediately then he'll have to be a very good passer right away. Is he really a good bet to come in and outplay guys like Cutler and Flacco as a rookie? I'd argue no. I've got no beef with taking him in the top 6 of a rookie draft, but I wouldn't touch him in a redraft league.