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Is Roy Oswalt done? (1 Viewer)

I don't even have him on my active roster, he has given up 15 homers, only gave up 14 all year last year. I am an Astros fan, so I have seen him a ton, but just don't feel safe with him pitching...time to cut bait, or hold him?

 
I don't even have him on my active roster, he has given up 15 homers, only gave up 14 all year last year. I am an Astros fan, so I have seen him a ton, but just don't feel safe with him pitching...time to cut bait, or hold him?
I'm not going to actively try to acquire Roy Oswalt, but I don't really feel as if he's done.If you look at his starts this year, he got bombed in his first two and then settled down to allow 1, 3, 3, 3, 3 & 3 runs, all going at least 6 innings (so 6 quality starts in a row). Then he goes out and has two more poor outings. I think the problem is, he's a pretty small guy who's thrown a ton of innings in his career. His K/IP have declined a bit, going from .85-.90 early in his career, to now about .75 (the past 2-3 years). He does not overpower hitters anymore, and hasn't really "evolved" for lack of a better term, to stay a dominant pitcher. For instance, Clemens developed a great splitter which he used when he was no longer able to overpower everyone. Randy Johnson now has a pretty good slider which he uses to get hitters out. Oswalt still relies on #1 and #2 and his #1 is no longer among the elite in the game, and he's having a difficult time spotting his #2.Add this to the fact he pitches in a pretty friendly hitters park, and I don't think he is any longer your elite 1.100 WHIP, sub 3.00 era guy. But he is certainly a very capable pitcher and should provide a good amount of wins, and a decent ERA (I'd fully expect a good 1.5-2 point drop in his era). His WHIP may still be around 1.35-1.4 when all is said and done, and if he keeps his K/IP ratio the same, you should get a 160 K's or so which is better than average.
 
Oswalt has had a lot of work on his arm the past few seasons.

The HRs will come down. His career FB% is 31%; this year he has 28% FB in play. The problem - 23% of them are leaving the park where historically only 9% of his FBs have left the yard.

His LD% is extremely high for him - 24% this year. The combination of an abnormal HR/FB and a high LD% are really hurting him. His control is right where it should be, his K/9 is actually his best since 2005, so I haven't lost faith in him just yet.

 

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