Is Tatem Bell undervalued? (1 Viewer)

[atcdav]

If Tatem Bell is "the guy" through week 5 and will either split carries or continue to be the guy going forward is 205 carries too low. Kevin Jones avg about 15 carries per game last year under Martz and steven Jackson avg 17 per game in '05 under the Martz system in STL. using an avg of 16 carries per games for the 1st 5 games and 12 per game for the remaining 11 we get 212 carries which is in the ballpark.

But Kevin Jones was not healthy in all 12 games he played and in '05 Jackson was still giving up carries to Faulk. So based on Bell playing all 16 games in good health and sharing carries w/ Jones and Duckett, Bell could avg 14-15 carries over the season or about 240 carries. Bell had his best seaon last year avg 18 carries per games, but that was in Denver.

So Bell is problably fairly valued at RB2. He has upside potential from there but probably wont break RB20, and he has yet to break RB20. I would definitely consider drafting him in the 5-6 round but any earlier would be a reach. I'm thinking with Jones on the PUP, Bell will be gone by the end of the 4th round. (12 team redraft) I think best case scenrio for Bell is 1050/5 and 250/3=178 fpts. That puts him with Ronnie Brown(rb20) but with no upside.

 

[Koya]

Why do you assume that Bell will split carries or be "the man" when Jones is back.

IF (and it is a big IF) what the Docs say is true, and come week 7 Jones will be as good as new (so that means only a month away from another injury, but that's another story) what logic has you think that Bell would be the man? Unless Bell shows us a consistency and an ability to stay on the field that he has not done to date - not even in denver where RBs average a yard more per carry than their usual career averages - why would Bell do it with the Lions?

Splitting time is crazy talk imo. If somehow bell surprises and keeps the job, it is because he is overperforming. Otherwise, they arent going to split time but rather Jones, IF HEALTHY, will take the rock and be the guy.

 

[Crusaderfan]

I think for Bell to remain the starter he has to play well and Detroit has to be winning. If that happens, they should be reluctant to change what is working. I really like Bell. Jones was a so-so RB until Martz came to town and he was gold in a PPR league. I expecting some of the same from Bell. If he struggles, I will drop him around week 3 or 4 and add Jones (hopefully he will still be available). Bell is my RB4 so I can afford to take chances with him. For me, I see nothing but upside having him right now.

 

[David Yudkin]

RBs in Martz-led offenses don't normally get a ton of carries. If you go back over the past 10 years (or whenver Martz was an OC or HC), his teams have ranked near the bottom of the league in terms of carries.

 

[az_prof]

If Tatem Bell is "the guy" through week 5 and will either split carries or continue to be the guy going forward is 205 carries too low. Kevin Jones avg about 15 carries per game last year under Martz and steven Jackson avg 17 per game in '05 under the Martz system in STL. using an avg of 16 carries per games for the 1st 5 games and 12 per game for the remaining 11 we get 212 carries which is in the ballpark.But Kevin Jones was not healthy in all 12 games he played and in '05 Jackson was still giving up carries to Faulk. So based on Bell playing all 16 games in good health and sharing carries w/ Jones and Duckett, Bell could avg 14-15 carries over the season or about 240 carries. Bell had his best seaon last year avg 18 carries per games, but that was in Denver.So Bell is problably fairly valued at RB2. He has upside potential from there but probably wont break RB20, and he has yet to break RB20. I would definitely consider drafting him in the 5-6 round but any earlier would be a reach. I'm thinking with Jones on the PUP, Bell will be gone by the end of the 4th round. (12 team redraft) I think best case scenrio for Bell is 1050/5 and 250/3=178 fpts. That puts him with Ronnie Brown(rb20) but with no upside.

I don't think you can assume Bell will average as many carries as Jones or Jackson did. He isn't a feature back, which is why the team was even considering bringing KJ back off PUP earlier than expected. And, Bell hasn't been used much at all in the passing game, which is where the RB really shines in Martz' offense. It looks like Bell will split carries with Duckett (TD vulture) and one other player who will likely come in on third and long and steal receptions.

 

[sandlotshrink]

I agree that Bell offers nice value this year, but he seems to find a way to dissapoint year after year - whether it's fumbling or an inujry that is responsible for him finding the bench. That being said I took a flyer on him in a 10 team league (2 keepers) last Sunday with the 9.3 pick as it was too good to pass up. This, of course, was before KJ was rumored to be placed on the PUP list. KJ went at the 5.6 slot and a MSU grad in our league took Duckett with the 4.1 pill thinking he would be the goal line back I guess.

 

[red]

6.08 last night as my RB3...maybe a stretch, but there wasn't much value on the board at the time, especially as RBs go. i took him before foster, norwood, dunn types

 

[Redsox fan]

I took Bell in the 8th round in a 14 team league, no ppr (104 overall).

Det. traded for him, probably knowing Jones would be injured for awhile and Bell has some serious upside running on that fast Det. turf at Ford field.

Matrz also likes to dump off to RBs as well, so in ppr leagues, he will do well for a little while (think Duckett will be in there in passing situations? Eh, I don't think so).

I figure he will start the fisrt 4-5 weeks;

1. at OAK, last year, gave up an avg. of 134 yds a game - nice match up

2. MIN, last year, gave up an avg. 61 yds a game - tough match up

3. At PHI, last year, gave up an avg. 136 yds a game - nice match up

4. CHI, last year, gave up an avg. 99 yds a game - tough match up

5. at WAS, last year, gave up an avg. 137 yds a game - nice match up

Not bad for an 8th round pick.

 

[playin4beer]

I took Bell in the 8th round in a 14 team league, no ppr (104 overall). Det. traded for him, probably knowing Jones would be injured for awhile and Bell has some serious upside running on that fast Det. turf at Ford field.Matrz also likes to dump off to RBs as well, so in ppr leagues, he will do well for a little while (think Duckett will be in there in passing situations? Eh, I don't think so).I figure he will start the fisrt 4-5 weeks;1. at OAK, last year, gave up an avg. of 134 yds a game - nice match up2. MIN, last year, gave up an avg. 61 yds a game - tough match up3. At PHI, last year, gave up an avg. 136 yds a game - nice match up4. CHI, last year, gave up an avg. 99 yds a game - tough match up5. at WAS, last year, gave up an avg. 137 yds a game - nice match upNot bad for an 8th round pick.

I've got him as my #3 RB behind Addai & McGahee. I drafted him hoping he'd have a couple of good weeks to start the year so I can trade him before Jones comes back.

 

[hauser42]

Jones is not a done deal when he come back. Does any one really feel that his foot will hold up with a lot of pounding on that foot when he comes back? He will not be in football shape and plays on turf. I see a lot of reasons that Bell will still get a solid amount of work once Jones gets back.

Bell is a solid RB2 in PPR, and a RB3 in other formats with good matchups to be a 2 in certain weeks.

 

[atcdav]

Koya, Kev Jones has been a huge disappoint except for his rookie year. He has no lock on the #1 rb job. They brought in Bell for a reason. Neither is a stud. I did not say Bell is undervalued, I only asked the question. I think the projections are accurate, but there is upside potential from where he is being drafted. Duckett could ( probably will ) see the redzone carries also. I read alot about Bell moving up the charts because of Jones situation, I dont think he should move up too much. As I said earlier best case for Bell, IMHO, if Jones is out for the season, Bell can earch RB20 at best.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Koya, Kev Jones has been a huge disappoint except for his rookie year. He has no lock on the #1 rb job. They brought in Bell for a reason. Neither is a stud. I did not say Bell is undervalued, I only asked the question. I think the projections are accurate, but there is upside potential from where he is being drafted. Duckett could ( probably will ) see the redzone carries also. I read alot about Bell moving up the charts because of Jones situation, I dont think he should move up too much. As I said earlier best case for Bell, IMHO, if Jones is out for the season, Bell can earch RB20 at best.

They brought Bell in as insurance. KJ was far from disappointing last year, he was great. Forget the YPC stats...they are more reflective of the terrible line. Martz loves KJ, and he is a much better all around RB than Bell. A healthy KJ is a clear starter.

 

[atcdav]

I took Bell in the 8th round in a 14 team league, no ppr (104 overall). Det. traded for him, probably knowing Jones would be injured for awhile and Bell has some serious upside running on that fast Det. turf at Ford field.Matrz also likes to dump off to RBs as well, so in ppr leagues, he will do well for a little while (think Duckett will be in there in passing situations? Eh, I don't think so).I figure he will start the fisrt 4-5 weeks;1. at OAK, last year, gave up an avg. of 134 yds a game - nice match up2. MIN, last year, gave up an avg. 61 yds a game - tough match up3. At PHI, last year, gave up an avg. 136 yds a game - nice match up4. CHI, last year, gave up an avg. 99 yds a game - tough match up5. at WAS, last year, gave up an avg. 137 yds a game - nice match upNot bad for an 8th round pick.

A great bargain for the 8th round, I am drafting in a 14 tram league this weekend. I dont expect him to be there. I drafted in a 12 team this past week and in the 8th round Warrick Dunn(a steal) and Ladell Betts went.

 

[moleculo]

Jones is not a done deal when he come back. Does any one really feel that his foot will hold up with a lot of pounding on that foot when he comes back? He will not be in football shape and plays on turf. I see a lot of reasons that Bell will still get a solid amount of work once Jones gets back.Bell is a solid RB2 in PPR, and a RB3 in other formats with good matchups to be a 2 in certain weeks.

:sigh: Tatum Bell has terrible hands - one of the worst pass catching RB's I've seen - at least he was in Denver.I still maintain that Tatum Bell in this offense = Trung Candidate.

 

[DevilintheDetail]

A healthy KJ is a clear starter.

I'm having trouble reading this situation. Knowledgeable people like you say things like this, but Martz has been praising Bell in camp as being a cut above everyone out there and has said that KJ will not be given the starting job back when he returns but will have to compete and beat Bell out if he is to start again. Do you think this is just coachspeak?

 

[Redsox fan]

A healthy KJ is a clear starter.

I'm having trouble reading this situation. Knowledgeable people like you say things like this, but Martz has been praising Bell in camp as being a cut above everyone out there and has said that KJ will not be given the starting job back when he returns but will have to compete and beat Bell out if he is to start again. Do you think this is just coachspeak?

Didn't know Martz said that. Good news for Bell owners, if that is indeed true.Lions RB Tatum Bell sat out Thursday's preseason finale, as did seemingly 90 percent of the rest of the starters in the NFL. He has a slight knee problem, but that won't keep him from starting at least the first five games of the season.

HUDDLE UP: With the official announcement that Kevin Jones is out until at least Week 6, Bell's time is now to prove he's a capable starting running back in the NFL. He'll be taken earlier than you may think in a lot of drafts, since Detroit should rarely face eight defenders in the box.

 

[faulkfan]

Jones is not a done deal when he come back. Does any one really feel that his foot will hold up with a lot of pounding on that foot when he comes back? He will not be in football shape and plays on turf. I see a lot of reasons that Bell will still get a solid amount of work once Jones gets back.

Bell is a solid RB2 in PPR, and a RB3 in other formats with good matchups to be a 2 in certain weeks.

:sigh: Tatum Bell has terrible hands - one of the worst pass catching RB's I've seen - at least he was in Denver.I still maintain that Tatum Bell in this offense = Trung Candidate.

I agree, but with more injuries.I keep wanting to cut Duckett, but when I see how mediocre Bell is and has been, I just keep thinking that Duckett might be worth having around. I may be wrong and if so I'll cut bait and move on, but Bell couldn't do it in Denver and I don't think he'll do it in Detroit.

 

[Redsox fan]

Bell couldn't cut it in Denver - maybe. Shanahan is a freakin' nut job too though. He rotates backs in and out, has a favorite, then that favorite goes into his dog house. If I were Bell, I'd be pumped to get out of Den and not have to guess what the F*** Shanahan was going to do next with the RBs.

That is exactly what steered me away from T. Henry. HE should be the undisputed RB, but if he fumbles once or twice in a game, anyone else wonder if that nut will pull henry out and put M. Bell or Sapp in.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Shanahan is a freakin' nut job too though.

Then he is a shoe-in first ballot HOF "nut job." I know that it might be astonishing, but he makes decisions around winning actual football games, rather than helping people get a clear picture of who to start in their fantasy leagues.

 

[Tubalcane]

Tatum Bell is a cancer on the a-s-s of Satan. If you can't cut it as RB in Denver then you should think about switching positions.

 

[einstein2u]

Tatum Bell is a cancer on the a-s-s of Satan. If you can't cut it as RB in Denver then you should think about switching positions.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Tatum Bell is a cancer on the a-s-s of Satan. If you can't cut it as RB in Denver then you should think about switching positions.

Non sequitur alert.Back to the topic of Tatum Bell, what if you have a career YPC of 4.9 in Denver?

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Tatum Bell is a cancer on the a-s-s of Satan. If you can't cut it as RB in Denver then you should think about switching positions.

Non sequitur alert.Back to the topic of Tatum Bell, what if you have a career YPC of 4.9 in Denver?

It means you'll probably have about a 3.6 YPC in Detroit

 

[az_prof]

A healthy KJ is a clear starter.

I'm having trouble reading this situation. Knowledgeable people like you say things like this, but Martz has been praising Bell in camp as being a cut above everyone out there and has said that KJ will not be given the starting job back when he returns but will have to compete and beat Bell out if he is to start again. Do you think this is just coachspeak?

That was early in camp, before he saw how average Bell can be and how he can't catch. Lately he has been talking about how important KJ is to the team and how he didn't want KJ on PUP because he thinks the offense needs him.

 

[turkishkamel]

A healthy KJ is a clear starter.

I'm having trouble reading this situation. Knowledgeable people like you say things like this, but Martz has been praising Bell in camp as being a cut above everyone out there and has said that KJ will not be given the starting job back when he returns but will have to compete and beat Bell out if he is to start again. Do you think this is just coachspeak?

That was early in camp, before he saw how average Bell can be and how he can't catch. Lately he has been talking about how important KJ is to the team and how he didn't want KJ on PUP because he thinks the offense needs him.

the only thing i've heard martz praise bell for is his speed. he's stated many times how important KJ is to this offense and he wants him available. bell is no threat to a healthy kevin jones. bells value lies in how long it takes KJ to come back. even though he stayed off the PUP to start he season it still could be 5-7 weeks before he returns. bell would be a solid RB3 until jones returns.

 

[DeadStroke]

If Tatum Bell is being drafted in the 4th round, he is being OVERvalued. When KJ comes back, he will be the starter, he's too good of a back not to be. Tatum Bell is/was an insurance policy, the lis franc injury usually takes a year to recover from and that would have put KJ's recovery time somewhere toward the end of the season. KJ rushed for 3.7YPC behind one of the worst Offensive Lines in football last year and on top of that, they used 9 different combinations of starters for the Oline and 11 different players . . .you can't have a successful Offensive line with those type of injuries. They were literally pulling people off the street and plugging them into the starting lineup. You can't blame a lot of the linemen for their poor blocking, they were trying to execute a Mike Martz offense that is one of the most complex offenses in the league. I haven't looked it up, but I'm assuming that Tatum averaged somewhere around 5 YPC behind the Denver offensive line, the same offensive line that produces 1000 yard rushers and 5.0 YPC running backs out of virtually anyone.

The RB that is being undervalued is KJ, especially if the reports that he will NOT start the season on PUP are accurate. It will take him a couple of weeks to get into football shape, but Jones is a gym rate, it won't take him as long as most to get into playing shape. If he doesn't go on PUP, KJ will be the starting back by week 4, but there will be some degree of RBBC.

 

[Native]

Not a bad first week for Tatum. 15 for 84 and a TD along with four receptions. He averaged almost six yards per carry. It wasnt an overwhelming performance, but he ran best late in the fourth to put the game away.

While he wasnt exceptional, he was more than sufficient. Do you guys think he helped his long term (season-long) standing on the team? Will Kevin Jones still be rushed back and take away the bulk of the carries?