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Is Tom Brady a Top 5 QB in 2010? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gpthatsme
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
nay
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
I say no. I don't have many concrete reasons for it, though. It's just a feeling. Welker is injured, Moss seems less focused, their division is improved and there are so many good passers in the league.
If you assume that Manning and Brees will be ahead of him, that's three spots for Brady, Rodgers, Favre, Romo, Schaub, Rivers-- and someone who always seems to come out of nowhere. I'd say probably top 10, but closer to 10th.
On a side note, it's got to be hard to stay motivated if you're Tom Brady. He's got multiple rings, money, fame, a model and a family. I know athletes have that competitive fire, but at what point does success douse it? I see too many other "hungry" quarterbacks (insert J. Russell joke here) to think he'll finish top five.
If you assume that Manning and Brees will be ahead of him, that's three spots for Brady, Rodgers, Favre, Romo, Schaub, Rivers-- and someone who always seems to come out of nowhere. I'd say probably top 10, but closer to 10th.
On a side note, it's got to be hard to stay motivated if you're Tom Brady. He's got multiple rings, money, fame, a model and a family. I know athletes have that competitive fire, but at what point does success douse it? I see too many other "hungry" quarterbacks (insert J. Russell joke here) to think he'll finish top five.
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
Yes, imo But having Tate, Gronkowski, Hernandez, and/or Price step up and be quickly productive would be key. At this pint they have the same RB's with Maroney probably the starter so I do believe they will throw a ton.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
He is in the conversation.
Rodgers, Brees, P.Manning above him for sure. Rivers, Schaub, and Romo I like to be above him. Not too many other QBs are in a position to pass him, though. There are a few, but Brady is a much safer bet than the Kolbs and Cutlers.
Rodgers, Brees, P.Manning above him for sure. Rivers, Schaub, and Romo I like to be above him. Not too many other QBs are in a position to pass him, though. There are a few, but Brady is a much safer bet than the Kolbs and Cutlers.
The Captain
Footballguy
Exactly my thinking. They added all these pieces to the receiving game. They still have Moss on the outside and Welker/Edelman in the slot. If Manning can make Garcon and Collie into play makers, Brady can do the same with Hernandez, Tate, Price, Edelman.Brady's demise is greatly exaggerated.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
SOLID yay
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I don't think it really matters if he is or isn't Top 5 in terms of his final ranking. The bottom line is that he likely will never put up TD numbers like he did in 2007. He should still post decent yardage numbers but there are many other QBs that can/have put up similar numbers to Brady. Last year was Brady's 2nd best fantasy scoring season and he ranked 8th. He has only been a Top 5 QB twice. He should be in the discussion for Top 5 but he won't lap the field of QBs like he did that one season.
Bottom line, he will probably go earlier than he should in redraft leagues to someone who has visions of his 50 TD seasons, but there will be other QBs available a little later on just as good and just as likely to put up big fantasy numbers.
And those whining about the Pats running game need to realize that the team's rushing totals have been fine and in the Top 5-10 range. They just don't get their production from one guy.
Bottom line, he will probably go earlier than he should in redraft leagues to someone who has visions of his 50 TD seasons, but there will be other QBs available a little later on just as good and just as likely to put up big fantasy numbers.
And those whining about the Pats running game need to realize that the team's rushing totals have been fine and in the Top 5-10 range. They just don't get their production from one guy.
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gpthatsme
Footballguy
This is where I am and why I posed the question. Based on how my draft will likely play out, I will have a shot at Brady/Romo/Rivers and I am just having a hard time justifying the pick of Brady over the other two.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'll switch Romo and Brady and maybe put Schaub ahead of Rivers depending on how well Mathews can carry the load, but it's still yes. I don't like Brady's weeks 13-16 on paper but I do like that he should get Welker back for the FF playoffs. Hard to call but I probably won't have him on many teams this year. 13 Dec 06 NYJ @ NE Gillette Stadium 8:30 PM14 Dec 12 NE @ CHI Soldier Field 1:00 PM 15 Dec 19 GB @ NE Gillette Stadium 8:20 PM16 Dec 26 NE @ BUF Ralph Wilson Stadium 1:00 PM
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Nope, Nada and No way
karmarooster
Footballguy
Better values than Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Brady:
Rivers
Schaub
Romo
Cutler
all have just as much a chance as Brady to end up top 5.
Rivers
Schaub
Romo
Cutler
all have just as much a chance as Brady to end up top 5.
drfeelgood
Footballguy
Who in this thread whined? One person brought up a mediocre backfield, but they weren't whining.I can see Brady top 10, but not sure about top 5.
Uber
Footballguy
Seriously. Whining?All I said was they have a mediocre backfield (which they do) and they didn't address it this off-season (which they didn't). They get their yards from multiple guys because every RB they have is either not very good or injured due to age. Whatever their totals are, they'd be better with a better RB, and they didn't bring one in.
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
I group him with the 25-28 TDs crew. That's good. Maybe not Top 5. Probably drafted too early. Like, I can't see him doing MUCH better than Cutler but I'm sure Brady will be drafted a round or two earlier.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
People have been questioning the Pats running game for the past couple of years in many threads, including several this year already.Seriously. Whining?All I said was they have a mediocre backfield (which they do) and they didn't address it this off-season (which they didn't). They get their yards from multiple guys because every RB they have is either not very good or injured due to age. Whatever their totals are, they'd be better with a better RB, and they didn't bring one in.
CalBear
Footballguy
In 2009, Brady had 800 more passing yards, 2 more TDs, and 13 fewer INTs than Cutler. In 2010, Brady will still be on a good offense, throwing to Randy Moss, and Cutler will still be on a crappy offense throwing to Devin Hester. So why would you think Cutler would do nearly as well in 2010 as Brady?Trivia: Cutler hasn't led any team to a winning season since his senior year of high school, 2001.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Trivia: win-loss doesn't matter in fantasy, and sometimes it's actually helpful to pad a QBs yardage stats. It could easily be argued that Brady's WR corps got worse this offseason due to Welker, while Cutler's got better due to Martz (whose offenses are known for many things but not usually "crappy"). They are really virtually dead even in my opinion, which means I'll probably end up with Cutler in more leagues because I won't be drafting Brady at his current ADP in the late 3rd. (note: Cutler at 7.12)
CalBear
Footballguy
Certainly if you believe Cutler and Brady are equal, you will get Cutler and not Brady. I just don't see any sane reason to believe that. In Martz's years since he left the Rams, he led his teams to the #22, #19, and #23 offenses.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
He's right around 5. I wouldn't reach to go and get him but if you're in a league where everyone is convinced that going QB late is the way to go and he's left sitting there, eventually he's worth taking. The last couple of seasons though, he's just been drafted way to high. This year he'll probably be drafted in most leagues right about where he should be, which is in that QB 4 to 6 area.
I don't like taking Brady in general because you'll have to spend a pretty solid draft pick to get him and I'm not sure you want to start him twice versus the Jets this season. If I'm going into the season thinking I may be looking to start elsewhere and I have to spend an early pick to get Brady, that turns me off. If I'm going to go QBBC, I may as well spend my first QB selection later in the draft and take my Qb 2 a little earlier than normal.
I don't like taking Brady in general because you'll have to spend a pretty solid draft pick to get him and I'm not sure you want to start him twice versus the Jets this season. If I'm going into the season thinking I may be looking to start elsewhere and I have to spend an early pick to get Brady, that turns me off. If I'm going to go QBBC, I may as well spend my first QB selection later in the draft and take my Qb 2 a little earlier than normal.
karmarooster
Footballguy
that's an excellent point and not one that I had considered before. as much as the Jets were a "steer clear" defense last season for QBs and WR1s, this year the figure to be even more so, including WR2s and RBs. Having to play them twice should be a downgrade to Brady, Moss, Henne, Marshall... everyone in the AFC East, unless you are confident in your backups.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
2nd game vs jets he was 310/1 -- that's not horrible.
gpthatsme
Footballguy
Done.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Brady has been #1 once and #2 once in 8 years as a starter (and thus upright). His best season other than those two was 7th.
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
Not necessarily equal, but scoring more vs. later draft position.
rocket1012
Footballguy
He's playing for a contract,and there's no motivation for him to get to anything less than a Super Bowl,..so unless Moss, Edelman, Holt,Grunkowski,etc. all turn out to be totally impotent,..he'll get his 25-plus TD's,and 3,500-4,000 yds. Don't forget those dump off passes to the backs that he'll need against the "blitz-happy" teams(Jets/Dolphins twice) he'll face.....
two_dollars
Footballguy
100% Yes. I have him 3rd behind behind Manning then Rodgers.
HenryMuto
Footballguy
It is going to be close. I would guess he would finish around 5th or 6th but he has much more downside this year then upside.
Not having Welker is a huge loss and even if Welker comes back I can't see him being the Welker of old this year.
Moss is a year older and he is still Moss but still did not look totally with it at times last year.
Also playing against the NYJ twice will really limit your passing game.
Playing Buffalo twice also could limit his passing stats as they were easy to run on but hard to pass on.
He did have 1 good game vs Buffalo last year but that game was a real struggle and in week 1.
They also play in cold wheather so he could have a few games where he can't get his stats up.
Last year I took Brady as the #1 QB in my draft and he did have a few super games but overall it was a bad pick.
I would think that Brady will not go ahead of Brees, Rodgers and P-Manning in any league.
Then I would group Brady in with the likes of Rivers, Favre, Schaub and Romo.
So Brady could finish as low 6-8 as well.
I probably have him ranked below most of those QBs right now.
Not having Welker is a huge loss and even if Welker comes back I can't see him being the Welker of old this year.
Moss is a year older and he is still Moss but still did not look totally with it at times last year.
Also playing against the NYJ twice will really limit your passing game.
Playing Buffalo twice also could limit his passing stats as they were easy to run on but hard to pass on.
He did have 1 good game vs Buffalo last year but that game was a real struggle and in week 1.
They also play in cold wheather so he could have a few games where he can't get his stats up.
Last year I took Brady as the #1 QB in my draft and he did have a few super games but overall it was a bad pick.
I would think that Brady will not go ahead of Brees, Rodgers and P-Manning in any league.
Then I would group Brady in with the likes of Rivers, Favre, Schaub and Romo.
So Brady could finish as low 6-8 as well.
I probably have him ranked below most of those QBs right now.
