J.J. Arrington (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

JJ Arrington (Arizona Cardinals)

I think you could either draft him late (redraft league) or go and get him (keeper / dynasty) for dirt cheap. He's worth the flyer, IMO, because we all know how valuable a serviceable RB in the NFL is these days.

Reasoning:

1. He's dirt cheap right now. Edge getting signed in 'zona leads to his immediate demotion.

2. He can learn from a vet now in Edge as to how to play in this league.

3. If he stays a Cardinal, Arizona almost has to upgrade their O-line / run game with getting Edge and justifying that FA acquisition.

4. Injury to Edge more likely in Arizona than Indy (more contact, poorer blocking, could be asked to do more).

5. Possibility of a trade, even on draft day, to a team wanting RBs / depth but not getting White, Bush or Williams.

 

[Sopranos]

Dynasty yes he is worth a flyer. In a redraft he isnt worth ANYTHING.Not worth drafting at all.. :X

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Dynasty yes he is worth a flyer. In a redraft he isnt worth ANYTHING.Not worth drafting at all.. :X

I agree he's worth more in dynasty, but if you have Edge he's handcuffing material.

 

[perry147]

Dynasty yes he is worth a flyer. In a redraft he isnt worth ANYTHING.Not worth drafting at all.. :X

I agree he's worth more in dynasty, but if you have Edge he's handcuffing material.

He is so bad that this would be like handcuffing yourself to an anvil on the sinking Titanic.

 

[perry147]

Dynasty yes he is worth a flyer. In a redraft he isnt worth ANYTHING.Not worth drafting at all.. :X

I agree he's worth more in dynasty, but if you have Edge he's handcuffing material.

He is so bad that this would be like handcuffing yourself to an anvil on the sinking Titanic.

Ok maybe my last comment was a bit harsh but if the Cards do not improve the OL then the Edge is going to have trouble not to mention JJA.

 

[gman8343]

Dynasty yes he is worth a flyer. In a redraft he isnt worth ANYTHING.Not worth drafting at all.. :X

I agree he's worth more in dynasty, but if you have Edge he's handcuffing material.

He is so bad that this would be like handcuffing yourself to an anvil on the sinking Titanic.

Ok maybe my last comment was a bit harsh but if the Cards do not improve the OL then the Edge is going to have trouble not to mention JJA.

no, I think your last comment was pretty close to spot on.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Dynasty yes he is worth a flyer. In a redraft he isnt worth ANYTHING.Not worth drafting at all.. :X

I agree he's worth more in dynasty, but if you have Edge he's handcuffing material.

He is so bad that this would be like handcuffing yourself to an anvil on the sinking Titanic.

Ok maybe my last comment was a bit harsh but if the Cards do not improve the OL then the Edge is going to have trouble not to mention JJA.

no, I think your last comment was pretty close to spot on.

This is the common thought for Arrington for most owners.His value is rock bottom. He is still a 2nd year RB with skill enough to play in the NFL, and can be had for a song. Dynasty owners should get him as a "throw in" on a deal if they can.

Redraft leagues - if you have a 20 round 12 team league, he will be selected. His ADP I would hazard to guess would be in the 13-16th round.

 

[Couch Potato]

Obtaining Arrington right now in an existing dynasty league is too expensive in most cases. The current owner, if he is the guy who drafted him top-4 last year, still will not be willing to let him go cheaply. Rightly or wrongly, he clings to the hope that Arrington will have good future value.

Given his poor performance in 2005 and the likelihood that he'd perform similarly in 2006 if forced into action due to an Edge injury, he's not worth the likely cost of handcuffing him. Again, I'm talking about existing dynasty leagues where Arrington is already on a roster, not initial dynasty drafts where no owner has an emotional attatchment to the guy. He can be had more cheaply in initial dynasty drafts, IMO, than in leagues where he has to be traded for to get him.

 

[Napoleon Dynamite]

I think he can be had pretty cheaply even in dynasty drafts... torwards the end of last year I got him pretty cheap.

You could compare him to Tiki Barber, he started slow (even though he was a starter for 11 games during his first 3 seasons)

Chances are JJ doesn't do anything great the rest of his NFL life, but if you can get him for cheap and have the roster room he is definitely worth a flyer.

Is it me or if a RB doesn't produce nice stats(ypc, breaks a couple big runs in limited duty) the first year he almost never makes it as a starter?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I think he can be had pretty cheaply even in dynasty drafts... torwards the end of last year I got him pretty cheap.

You could compare him to Tiki Barber, he started slow (even though he was a starter for 11 games during his first 3 seasons)

Chances are JJ doesn't do anything great the rest of his NFL life, but if you can get him for cheap and have the roster room he is definitely worth a flyer.

Is it me or if a RB doesn't produce nice stats(ypc, breaks a couple big runs in limited duty) the first year he almost never makes it as a starter?

That's a broad generalization, so I'd have to say no.Look at the 3 top picks for next year - two were stuck behind another RB (Larry Johnson / Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander / Ricky Watters) for at least a season.

Injuries play a factor, as do contract holdouts that go deep in to training camp (i.e. Cedric Benson).

There have been late bloomers, but ones that get the bulk of the carries and fail to perform are far more riskier than guys stuck behind other backs. Again, Rudi Johnson comes to mind w/ Dillon, as does LaMont Jordan and Curtis Martin. That's the most common holdup.

I understand your point of "showing flashes", like Mike Turner in SD or Westbrook in his first year. Show them something so that in Year 2 you have a shot at the bulk of the carries.

Back to Arrington - not that I'm a big fan, but I'm just trying to make you think about who's out there and under valued as of today - he had the only 2 rushing TDs for the Cardinals from a RB. So what you say? Well, Reuben Droughns is generally considered a Top 20 RB heading into the fall and he only scored 2 TDs (3 RB TDs total for the Browns), so the potential upside for Droughns would also exist for Arrington with either another team or an improved run blocking O-line.

Also worth noting - Arrington was the 2nd leading ball carrier (Shipp) and averaged slightly more than the team per carry (3.3 vs 3.2). Both were pitiful, but worth noting nevertheless.

Bottom line - I'm not advocating drafting Arrington before Round 8 (where you may get antsy a bit if you own Edge) or pencil him in to your 3rd RB slot, but he is worth tracking on your general radar for high upside / low downside guys that could be had in the back half of your redraft leagues.

 

[mike11162]

Obtaining Arrington right now in an existing dynasty league is too expensive in most cases. The current owner, if he is the guy who drafted him top-4 last year, still will not be willing to let him go cheaply. Rightly or wrongly, he clings to the hope that Arrington will have good future value.

Given his poor performance in 2005 and the likelihood that he'd perform similarly in 2006 if forced into action due to an Edge injury, he's not worth the likely cost of handcuffing him. Again, I'm talking about existing dynasty leagues where Arrington is already on a roster, not initial dynasty drafts where no owner has an emotional attatchment to the guy. He can be had more cheaply in initial dynasty drafts, IMO, than in leagues where he has to be traded for to get him.

I'm the unfortunate dynasty owner who took him with the third rookie pick last year (Benson was still in his holdout at the time and threatening to sit out the season), and although I realize he has little to no value now, there's no point in trading him for a song and a dance. I got the room to carry him another year or two and I'll probably do that hoping I get lucky. Losing out on a late draft pick or waiver wire type player isn't much risk to just hold on to him as opposed to just dumping him for whatever I can get.

 

[Dope]

Just as an example, I drafted JJ last year with the 1.4...I also had Marcel Shipp.

I just traded the two of them a couple of days ago to the Edge owner for Troy Williamson and Alex Smith.

I think it's a pretty fair deal for the two of us actually...we both trade disappointing 2005 1st rounders and he gets insurance while I got to help my horrid TE squad.

 

[DropKick]

Just as an example, I drafted JJ last year with the 1.4...I also had Marcel Shipp.

I just traded the two of them a couple of days ago to the Edge owner for Troy Williamson and Alex Smith.

I think it's a pretty fair deal for the two of us actually...we both trade disappointing 2005 1st rounders and he gets insurance while I got to help my horrid TE squad.

Great deal.I don't have JJ. Was torn between him or FWP in a rookie/free agent draft. Glad I took Parker. But I wouldn't give up on JJ too soon in a dynasty. His career path could be like Thomas Jones' or other Card's RBs that didn't see success until they found a new team.

 

[P Boy]

That Arrington couldn't hold off Shipp despite being given every opportunity - and no one will ever confuse Shipp with a competent starting RB in the NFL - says loads about Arrington's potential.

 

[Bizkiteer]

JJ is a bum = BUST!!! The 4th and 2 yds vs the 'Skins play where he just went down because S. Taylor was coming says it all. The guy didn't try to dive forward...he got scared and went down. I've seen more heart and determination in flag football or pop warner!

 

[UnknownCoach]

If James stays healthy, Arrington's value next year should be even cheaper. Of course if James gets hurt, it could potentially increase sharply.

Due to the value of roster space, I probably wouldnt trade for him now unless I was trading another pure prospect that would also eat up unproductive space for a long time. If the owner is the one who drafted him, he probably isnt willing to let JJ go easily enough yet. Mid or late season or next year is when JJ will be more easily let go of unless he flashes serious potential.

If was the owner, I'd consider dealing him now while people still have last year's rookies on their mind. You might be able to net something of value like a mid late first round pick. Which you could trade at draft time for more than you'd be able to trade JJ for until he's nearing free agency or Edge begins to fall out of the picture.

I know that JJ looks like a bargain now when thinking of last year's NFL draft. However, Arizona took Arrington a little earlier than he was projected because they were picking so high in round 2 with a huge hole to fill. I think he was more like a late second round prospect than a top of the second prospect. So that's one reason I dont regard him so highly. He also showed little when there was a gaping hole to fill last year. Even if he shows decent ability, its unlikely to increase his value from its current state until he's close to getting another opportunity for serious playing time. He'd have to look like a star, which I'm guessing he aint.

 

[cstu]

If James stays healthy, Arrington's value next year should be even cheaper. Of course if James gets hurt, it could potentially increase sharply.

Due to the value of roster space, I probably wouldnt trade for him now unless I was trading another pure prospect that would also eat up unproductive space for a long time. If the owner is the one who drafted him, he probably isnt willing to let JJ go easily enough yet. Mid or late season or next year is when JJ will be more easily let go of unless he flashes serious potential.

If was the owner, I'd consider dealing him now while people still have last year's rookies on their mind. You might be able to net something of value like a mid late first round pick. Which you could trade at draft time for more than you'd be able to trade JJ for until he's nearing free agency or Edge begins to fall out of the picture.

I know that JJ looks like a bargain now when thinking of last year's NFL draft. However, Arizona took Arrington a little earlier than he was projected because they were picking so high in round 2 with a huge hole to fill. I think he was more like a late second round prospect than a top of the second prospect. So that's one reason I dont regard him so highly. He also showed little when there was a gaping hole to fill last year. Even if he shows decent ability, its unlikely to increase his value from its current state until he's close to getting another opportunity for serious playing time. He'd have to look like a star, which I'm guessing he aint.

I had JJA as the 5th RB behind Barber and he was drafted as the 4th RB. IMO, JJA still has the talent to be a successful RB but he needs to be used in the right way to take advantage of his skills as a receiver. He's never going to be a great between the tackles RB, but then again neither is Brian Westbrook. He reminds me a bit of Tiki Barber, who took awhile to figure out how to play RB.

 

[dgreen]

The current owner, if he is the guy who drafted him top-4 last year, still will not be willing to let him go cheaply.

I'm willing.

 

[P Boy]

The current owner, if he is the guy who drafted him top-4 last year, still will not be willing to let him go cheaply.

I'm willing.

On a serious note - sorry about how it turned out for you. It's tough to see such a high draft pick turn into a player of Arrington's stature. Such is the nature of FF, I guess...

 

[Kit Fisto]

Obtaining Arrington right now in an existing dynasty league is too expensive in most cases.  The current owner, if he is the guy who drafted him top-4 last year, still will not be willing to let him go cheaply.  Rightly or wrongly, he clings to the hope that Arrington will have good future value. 

Given his poor performance in 2005 and the likelihood that he'd perform similarly in 2006 if forced into action due to an Edge injury, he's not worth the likely cost of handcuffing him.  Again, I'm talking about existing dynasty leagues where Arrington is already on a roster, not initial dynasty drafts where no owner has an emotional attatchment to the guy.  He can be had more cheaply in initial dynasty drafts, IMO, than in leagues where he has to be traded for to get him.

I'm the unfortunate dynasty owner who took him with the third rookie pick last year (Benson was still in his holdout at the time and threatening to sit out the season), and although I realize he has little to no value now, there's no point in trading him for a song and a dance. I got the room to carry him another year or two and I'll probably do that hoping I get lucky. Losing out on a late draft pick or waiver wire type player isn't much risk to just hold on to him as opposed to just dumping him for whatever I can get.

Your wrong, though. Get what you can now before you get absolutely nothing for him. Trade him to the Edge owner for a 3rd and walk away. Let someone else hold on to him; wishin', hopin' and prayin'.How many non-Chris Brown owners are still hanging on Travis Henry, hoping something happens to Brown?

My point being... the also-rans keep guys like Arrington on their teams too long. Sharks make the first move. You won't always be right, but more often than not, you will be. It's time to cut bait on Arrington.

 

[mike11162]

Obtaining Arrington right now in an existing dynasty league is too expensive in most cases.  The current owner, if he is the guy who drafted him top-4 last year, still will not be willing to let him go cheaply.  Rightly or wrongly, he clings to the hope that Arrington will have good future value. 

Given his poor performance in 2005 and the likelihood that he'd perform similarly in 2006 if forced into action due to an Edge injury, he's not worth the likely cost of handcuffing him.  Again, I'm talking about existing dynasty leagues where Arrington is already on a roster, not initial dynasty drafts where no owner has an emotional attatchment to the guy.  He can be had more cheaply in initial dynasty drafts, IMO, than in leagues where he has to be traded for to get him.

I'm the unfortunate dynasty owner who took him with the third rookie pick last year (Benson was still in his holdout at the time and threatening to sit out the season), and although I realize he has little to no value now, there's no point in trading him for a song and a dance. I got the room to carry him another year or two and I'll probably do that hoping I get lucky. Losing out on a late draft pick or waiver wire type player isn't much risk to just hold on to him as opposed to just dumping him for whatever I can get.

Your wrong, though. Get what you can now before you get absolutely nothing for him. Trade him to the Edge owner for a 3rd and walk away. Let someone else hold on to him; wishin', hopin' and prayin'.How many non-Chris Brown owners are still hanging on Travis Henry, hoping something happens to Brown?

My point being... the also-rans keep guys like Arrington on their teams too long. Sharks make the first move. You won't always be right, but more often than not, you will be. It's time to cut bait on Arrington.

Well, in my league doubt I could get more than a late 2nd round rookie pick for him now. The Edge owner has pick 21 in the 2nd. We have a pure dynasty with no contract limits, so the vet draft is practically worthless (about the same as waiver wire quality). So JJ or a late 2nd/early 3rd round rookie is about the same crapshoot. Or a scrub RB like Kevin Faulk/Shawn Bryson in the vet draft, that's about all the options are. Can't really see where it would matter much. I didn't really like JJ from the beginning, but he probably has as much or more upside than the options I have to trade him for, so I'll probably just hold on to him.

 

[TedHead]

JJ is a bum = BUST!!! The 4th and 2 yds vs the 'Skins play where he just went down because S. Taylor was coming says it all. The guy didn't try to dive forward...he got scared and went down. I've seen more heart and determination in flag football or pop warner!

Ignorance is bliss, eh Biz. Any RB in Arizona is doomed behind that Oline.

 

[Biabreakable]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...opic=145810&hl=

I would like to appologise to Kevin Faulk for this prediction.

 

[Imedos]

It's more likely that the Cards draft a late round rb that eventually blossoms into Edge's replacement(when he runs out of gas) than Arrington becomming a viable starting rb.

imo.

 

[cstu]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...opic=145810&hl=

I would like to appologise to Kevin Faulk for this prediction.

My quote from that thread:

I have Arrington as the #6 RB, but I'm thinking about bumping Shelton and Houston up. Arrington is much like Westbrook, so he could either end up as a great back in the right system or just a 3rd down back.

 

[Somebody]

Who would you rather have in a dynasty at this point between Arrington and Ricky Williams?

 

[Kit Fisto]

Who would you rather have in a dynasty at this point between Arrington and Ricky Williams?

Williams, provided he stays clean.One year of Williams > a career of 3rd down duty for Arrington.

 

[CalBear]

I don't think Arrington really can be said to have much value at this point. No NFL team is going to give him a shot at starting in the forseeable future, and barring an injury to Edge, he doesn't seem likely to get a whole lot of touches in Arizona. Arrington could easily be a successful third-down back somewhere, but he's probably not as good a third-down back as Edge is.

 

[Slinger]

I don't think Arrington really can be said to have much value at this point. No NFL team is going to give him a shot at starting in the forseeable future, and barring an injury to Edge, he doesn't seem likely to get a whole lot of touches in Arizona. Arrington could easily be a successful third-down back somewhere, but he's probably not as good a third-down back as Edge is.

JJ Arrington owners can only wish for an injury to Edge.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

If James stays healthy, Arrington's value next year should be even cheaper.

That's the best nugget of the thread. If you think Arrington is cheap now, wait until Edge is rolling. Like UC said, there's a risk that Edge gets hurt, but other than that Arringtons value should continue to drop. There's a buy low opp right now because JJ's owners are realizing that he has likely no value in the near future, but an even bigger buy low opp coming up.I also 100% agree with the poster that said he's cheaper in initial drafts than trades because of the investment his owners likely made. That deal of JJ+Shipp for Williamson and Alex Smith was about the best return you could possibly hope to get for JJ right now.

 

[perry147]

If James stays healthy, Arrington's value next year should be even cheaper.

That's the best nugget of the thread. If you think Arrington is cheap now, wait until Edge is rolling. Like UC said, there's a risk that Edge gets hurt, but other than that Arringtons value should continue to drop. There's a buy low opp right now because JJ's owners are realizing that he has likely no value in the near future, but an even bigger buy low opp coming up.I also 100% agree with the poster that said he's cheaper in initial drafts than trades because of the investment his owners likely made. That deal of JJ+Shipp for Williamson and Alex Smith was about the best return you could possibly hope to get for JJ right now.

A trade is the only way for JJ to have value.JJ to Denver would be gold.

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

Unless Arrington "magically" learns to run harder and tougher, I wouldn't think that Arrington is worth more than a last round pick in a 25-players-per-roster keeper league.

Yes, you can blame the atrocious o-line, but if you watched his game tape last season, a fair proportion of his struggles can be attributed to the fact that he just runs far too soft to be effective in the NFL. Needs to "learn" to stop dancing before the reaching the line of scrimmage as well.

Somehow I doubt you can "teach" somebody to run harder. I would think that it would be an intrinsic ability.

 

[CalBear]

A trade is the only way for JJ to have value.

JJ to Denver would be gold.

Hint to all dynasty players: Your worthless RB is not likely to be traded to Denver. (I mean, seriously, practically every second-string RB gets talked up with "...if only Denver traded for him!")Arrington is not Denver's kind of running back, anyway.

 

[Bri]

Hint to all dynasty players: Your worthless RB is not likely to be traded to Denver. (I mean, seriously, practically every second-string RB gets talked up with "...if only Denver traded for him!")

 

[Traders2001]

Dynasty yes he is worth a flyer. In a redraft he isnt worth ANYTHING.Not worth drafting at all.. :X

I agree he's worth more in dynasty, but if you have Edge he's handcuffing material.

He is so bad that this would be like handcuffing yourself to an anvil on the sinking Titanic.

Agreed I say he wont even make the team.

 

[Traders2001]

Who would you rather have in a dynasty at this point between Arrington and Ricky Williams?

Ricky Williams anytime....JJ would not even be drafted even if he ended up in Denver , he is that bad.

 

[cstu]

Who would you rather have in a dynasty at this point between Arrington and Ricky Williams?

Ricky Williams anytime....JJ would not even be drafted even if he ended up in Denver , he is that bad.

JJ had the highest YPC of any running back on the team that carried the ball more than twice and caught 25 passes. Shipp couldn't even break 3 YPC behind that OL.

 

[Baracuda]

Arrington's value is similar to a penny stock. It's contrarian to think about him even having a shred of value left, so I like the suggestion to consider him. You could get him for next to nothing now, so if you can spare a roster spot on him, it might be worth it longer term hoping for a trade or a second chance after he becomes a free agent. That said, there's probably like 75 RBs I'd rather own first.