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J.J.Nelson-going forward. (1 Viewer)

kutta said:
Not so sure. I don't think the WR2 in AZ is worth much at all right now. JJ drops a lot of passes, and Jaron Brown is in the mix for that spot. I think Fitz is the only WR in AZ worth owning if John Brown is out.
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He does drop a lot of passes, he had a brutal one last week. I do think there is value here though. When John Brown was limited last year he drew some decent target totals, 7 in the game Brown missed and 12 in the following game where Brown was very limited. On top of that DJ is out for an extended period of time and Gresham is hurt. Someone else is going to have to draw targets outside of Fitz, he's not going to command a 100% target share.

Last week Nelson played on 40% of the snaps and drew 6 targets, Jaron played on 73% of the snaps and drew no targets. I don't think Jaron really hurts Nelson's outlook all that much. I'm not crazy excited about his prospects but I think he should be rostered in ppr. He's shown to have a pretty massive ceiling, putting up a 8/79/2 stat line in that game where he was targeted 12 times and a 3/132/1 line later in the year. He was 3rd on the team with 11 RZ targets last year, despite not seeing legitimate snaps until week 7. 

 
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SameSongNDance said:
He does drop a lot of passes, he had a brutal one last week. I do think there is value here though. When John Brown was limited last year he drew some decent target totals, 7 in the game Brown missed and 12 in the following game where Brown was very limited. On top of that DJ is out for an extended period of time and Gresham is hurt. Someone else is going to have to draw targets outside of Fitz, he's not going to command a 100% target share.

Last week Nelson played on 40% of the snaps and drew 6 targets, Jaron played on 73% of the snaps and drew no targets. I don't think Jaron really hurts Nelson's outlook all that much. I'm not crazy excited about his prospects but I think he should be rostered in ppr. He's shown to have a pretty massive ceiling, putting up a 8/79/2 stat line in that game where he was targeted 12 times and a 3/132/1 line later in the year. He was 3rd on the team with 11 RZ targets last year, despite not seeing legitimate snaps until week 7. 
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You know, you're probably right. He should be rostered. He'll probably have some good games along with some stinkers, but I agree he should be on a roster, especially with DJ out. 

 
kutta said:
You know, you're probably right. He should be rostered. He'll probably have some good games along with some stinkers, but I agree he should be on a roster, especially with DJ out. 
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I'm not saying he's going to change your season or he's even worth starting. However, if Brown was worth rostering before the injury, I think JJ is as well. They both play the same role in that offense.

 
JJ had 3 games of 10+ targets last season. I think he people should strongly consider starting him in flex spots this week. The Colts D didn't show any signs of life against the Rams. JJ could easily get behind this defense for a deep TD. 

 
I kind of like Jaron Brown a bit better. He's got better size and is finally healthy after his ACL tear from last year. Plus he was listed as the #2 wide out in early September. I think he's has as much upside as Nelson,if not more. He's a better target in the Red zone as well. He's never really gotten a chance to shine being stuck behind Floyd on the depth chart the last couple years... and I do recall he had 2 TD game in preseason.

 
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Ilov80s said:
Where would you roughly rank him among WRs? If you don't mind, give me a number rank or a couple payers you see him par with. 
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WR3 with obvious upside. I just view him as highly volatile, like I do Brown. Low floor, high ceiling.

He's a good DFS play at least.

 
Big week for Nelson owners...it would be nice to see him go out and have a real productive day...he could not be in a better spot this week...could be a springboard to a good year.....if he doesn't produce this week it will be real tough to have faith in him...I am intrigued by him but I want him to remove any doubts I should keep him rostered because I do have some doubts right now...

 
I picked him up to block my opponent (I have Fitz) and he is weak at WR.  

Plus I'll hold because JJ is so freaking explosive.  8 TDs in his last 10 games. He's no joke. 

Keep these stats in mind:

JJ Nelson's last 6 games (standard): 12.6 ppg on 6.7 targets/game (floor 7.5 pts, ceiling 19.2 pts)

JJ Nelson (career) when targeted 6+ times (8 games total): 12.3 ppg on 8.4 targets/game

DJ and at least one of Michael Floyd or John Brown played in every one of those games. Now all of those guys are out of the picture and JJ Nelson gets to face the Colts D.

To me he is a WR2 this week.  

Start with confidence.

 
CKoz24 said:
Should I drop Eric Decker for the JJ and if so do you start him over Corey Davis against Jacksonville?
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That is the exact move I made...dropped Decker for Nelson...I'm guessing Decker will end up being a better real football player then fantasy player this year...I really don't see him blowing up or being someone you would be overly comfortable starting...right now he is a depth guy and if Davis is legit his value could really be iffy...with Nelson you have a potential blow-up player...things seem to be lining up for him to make some noise...I am not starting him but I would rather have him rostered and see how things play out the next week or two...if you get lucky it could really be a plus...if it doesn't than you move on from him...

 
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Snaps jumped to 76%. Jarson played on 76% as well. Jarson saw more targets (11 to 7) but Nelson obviously provided greater returns.

Like I said, his ceiling is technically massive. Hilariously, he's the the overall WR3 in ppr so far this year. I still think he'll be volatile but as long as Brown is out (he's already been ruled out for next week) Nelson is very much startable regardless of format.

 
Not many people talking about this guy.  Seems like a guy that could again fly under the radar and could be picked up for free tomorrow after waivers run.

Was just doing minor research and saw he was targeted 74 times last year and had 34 catches.  Not exactly the catch rate you want to see. But to be fair. Last week highlights were really all I've watched of him.

 
Was amazed to scoop him up free after waivers ran this morning. As your fourth WR he seems like a good player to be able to plug in with the possibility of a big score 

 
Got him this morning as well.  Might play him over Watkins/Kupp or hold until more info is known about the other J. Nelson Sunday afternoon...

 
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need2know said:
He's still on my ww.  Drop t. Williams for him?
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I'm kind of there with you, I've scooped him up by dropping my kicker for the time being. I don't think I'd drop Tyrell Williams for him ( he's on my roster as my 4th WR ), I'm  most likely deciding between Rawls or Kamara. 

Tyrell is a hold for the time being for me, Chargers always seem unlucky with injuries, we've yet to see Keenan Allen last a whole season, and the rookie Williams is behind schedule. Tyrell will get his 

 
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TartanLion said:
I'm kind of there with you, I've scooped him up by dropping my kicker for the time being. I don't think I'd drop Tyrell Williams for him ( he's on my roster as my 4th WR ), I'm  most likely deciding between Rawls or Kamara. 

Tyrell is a hold for the time being for me, Chargers always seem unlucky with injuries, we've yet to see Keenan Allen last a whole season, and the rookie Williams is behind schedule. Tyrell will get his 
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I'm really strong at wr.  Tyrell is my wr5.

Dez, cooks, Allen, Cobb, Tyrell.  I just want to keep him from someone else really

 
Sold John Brown and kept Nelson, pretty happy about that decision at the moment. I think it's safe to say he will have a role this year even if Brown comes back. Jaron is no threat either, Arians has to aknowledge this too even if he does not want to-stubborn idiot.

 
To me, swap out John Brown for JJ in terms of who would deliver on the deep ball/jitterbug threat of the ARI offense.

Coupled with DJ being out until late November (at least), and I could see a similar line to what John Brown delivered in 2015 (65/1003/7).

 
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J.J. Nelson was limited with a hamstring injury in Thursday's practice.

It's a new injury for Nelson, though the "limited" practice suggests it's not serious. He has an extra day to get healthy with the Cardinals playing on Monday Night Football. Any sort of hamstring issue is still not something you want to see for a burner such as Nelson. His status will be updated on Friday.
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This is some *******.  Both my other options play tonight and this guy would torpedo me on Monday night with no other options if he sits.

 
Picked him up off waivers. Now he' hurt. Already lost Robinson and Coleman. Have West and Eifert likely not playing and Luck having a shoulder still lingering. 

Changed name to Injured reserves

 
Since the game is on Monday today's injury report needs to be treated as if it were issued on Thursday. Tomorrow's report is the most important. If he turns in a full practice tomorrow I wouldn't be too worried. 

 
if you want/need to play him it probably makes sense to get Jaron Brown if he is on the wire...don't need to get the last second goose egg...

 
Going back to the end of 2016 Nelson iIn full PPR:

1-42-1 11.2

1-8-1 7.8

5-38-1 14.8

3-122-1 21.2

4-75-11.5

5-43-1 15.3

5-120-1 23.0

Prorated for 16 games:

55-1024-14

 
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