J.T. O'Sullivan (1 Viewer)

[Ketamine Dreams]

Sorry if this is a honda, I'm in a hurry. What do you think the outlook for O'Sullivan is this year and beyond? Seems like a journeyman that may have found a good home to me. THink he's only a stop-gap guy this year? Could he succeed in Martz's system this year and beyond.

 

[greenline]

I wish I had a crystal ball for you.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

I wish I had a crystal ball for you.

Let me know if you find one....Anyone else?

 

[Hemi-Colon]

JTO has a great oppurtunity to succeed at SF. He already has a command over a very complex system, has a much-improved O-line blowing holes open for Frank Gore, and has an interesting balance of recievers. Isaac Bruce, although his best years are behind him, should be a great possesion reciever with a built-in knowledge of the system. Battle has shown to be reliable, probably having the best hands on the team. Then there is a young, albeit unproven group of hungry for the ball guys who bring a mix of speed and consistent route running that SF hasnt seen in a few years(T.O.). Throw in an undercahieving TE who might just be the most athletic player in the game, and I would say that JTO has a better than great chance to thrive on this team. The most important thing he has going for him, is the confidance of his teammates, something sorely lacking since Jeff Garcia was here.

How this translates from a fantasy perspective is anybodies guess but there is no denying that the pieces are there.

If you are a fan, you have plenty to be encouraged about. The division alone makes his upside more interesting as it looks to be up for grabs. Of course this is just my opinion and Seattle fan and Zona Kool-aid chuggers are sure to disagree.

Cheers

 

[butcher boy]

I'm a 49er fan and I'm not convinced.

I think there's a reason he's never been more than a third string QB in the NFL.

I think there is still animosity between Alex Smith and Mike Nolan, and I think this animosity is one of the reasons why JTO is starting. Moreso than any "ability" JTO has shown.

I wouldn't be surprised at the end of this season to see Alex Smith leave the team, Mike Nolan getting fired, and Mike Martz leaving and taking JT O'Sullivan with him. This leaves Shaun Hill as the only QB on the team for whatever poor schmuck replaces Nolan.

 

[Hemi-Colon]

I'm a 49er fan and I'm not convinced. I think there's a reason he's never been more than a third string QB in the NFL. I think there is still animosity between Alex Smith and Mike Nolan, and I think this animosity is one of the reasons why JTO is starting. Moreso than any "ability" JTO has shown.I wouldn't be surprised at the end of this season to see Alex Smith leave the team, Mike Nolan getting fired, and Mike Martz leaving and taking JT O'Sullivan with him. This leaves Shaun Hill as the only QB on the team for whatever poor schmuck replaces Nolan.

Agreed, you dont carry a clipboard in this league for that long unless there is a reason. As for his "ability", we all know he is not a top tier fantasy QB, but he does give this team the best chance to win right now. Nolan only got a 1 year extension so him deciding on JTO over Smith I would assume, has more to do with that and the fact that his career as a head coach lies in the success of his team and QB. The Head Coaching job in SF will definatly be interesting to watch come post-season. 8-8 probably wont be good enough to keep the job for Nolan. Not saying that I predict 8-8, just noting how little margin for failure I believe ownership has for Nolan.If you really want to look at this from a pipe-dream view point, lets say the skies open up, and the seas part and the Niners(ahem) go 10-6 this year. 10-6 and the (ahem) playoffs, could still possibly not be enough to keep Nolan,s job. Martz's name would immediately be on many teams short list if he could perform such a miracle, and Nolan would be without contract. I cant believe the organization would let another Norv Turner like fleecing take place. I see Martz being offered job despite the success this year, and I think Mad Mike has his eye on it as well.And as far as Alex Smith is concerned, I cant see team taking that kind of hit against their cap especially after the extension he just signed last winter. JMOCheers

 

[Chunky Soup]

JTO has a great oppurtunity to succeed at SF. He already has a command over a very complex system, has a much-improved O-line blowing holes open for Frank Gore, and has an interesting balance of recievers. Isaac Bruce, although his best years are behind him, should be a great possesion reciever with a built-in knowledge of the system. Battle has shown to be reliable, probably having the best hands on the team. Then there is a young, albeit unproven group of hungry for the ball guys who bring a mix of speed and consistent route running that SF hasnt seen in a few years(T.O.). Throw in an undercahieving TE who might just be the most athletic player in the game, and I would say that JTO has a better than great chance to thrive on this team. The most important thing he has going for him, is the confidance of his teammates, something sorely lacking since Jeff Garcia was here.How this translates from a fantasy perspective is anybodies guess but there is no denying that the pieces are there.If you are a fan, you have plenty to be encouraged about. The division alone makes his upside more interesting as it looks to be up for grabs. Of course this is just my opinion and Seattle fan and Zona Kool-aid chuggers are sure to disagree.Cheers

 

[Hemi-Colon]

JTO has a great oppurtunity to succeed at SF. He already has a command over a very complex system, has a much-improved O-line blowing holes open for Frank Gore, and has an interesting balance of recievers. Isaac Bruce, although his best years are behind him, should be a great possesion reciever with a built-in knowledge of the system. Battle has shown to be reliable, probably having the best hands on the team. Then there is a young, albeit unproven group of hungry for the ball guys who bring a mix of speed and consistent route running that SF hasnt seen in a few years(T.O.). Throw in an undercahieving TE who might just be the most athletic player in the game, and I would say that JTO has a better than great chance to thrive on this team. The most important thing he has going for him, is the confidance of his teammates, something sorely lacking since Jeff Garcia was here.How this translates from a fantasy perspective is anybodies guess but there is no denying that the pieces are there.If you are a fan, you have plenty to be encouraged about. The division alone makes his upside more interesting as it looks to be up for grabs. Of course this is just my opinion and Seattle fan and Zona Kool-aid chuggers are sure to disagree.Cheers

Cheers!

 

[Abraham]

Agreed, you dont carry a clipboard in this league for that long unless there is a reason.

I disagree. A lot of productive QBs - particularly late round guys - have carried the clipboard for a few seasons. Matt Hasselbeck (3), Bulger (2), Romo (3), Delhomme (6, same as O'Sullivan), not to mention Kurt Warner's journey. I'm not saying O'Sullivan is a lock to be as good or better than any of those examples, but discounting a player because he was a backup for a while is foolish. There are only so many NFL Starting QBs on earth. Being one of the ~65 other best QBs around isn't exactly terrible, but it makes you a backup.

As for his "ability", we all know he is not a top tier fantasy QB

We do?

 

[Tiger Fan]

FBG projections have him as QB 29 (in my scoring system), getting 76% of the FP. Way too low IMO.

 

[Hemi-Colon]

Agreed, you dont carry a clipboard in this league for that long unless there is a reason.

I disagree. A lot of productive QBs - particularly late round guys - have carried the clipboard for a few seasons. Matt Hasselbeck (3), Bulger (2), Romo (3), Delhomme (6, same as O'Sullivan), not to mention Kurt Warner's journey. I'm not saying O'Sullivan is a lock to be as good or better than any of those examples, but discounting a player because he was a backup for a while is foolish. There are only so many NFL Starting QBs on earth. Being one of the ~65 other best QBs around isn't exactly terrible, but it makes you a backup.

As for his "ability", we all know he is not a top tier fantasy QB

We do?

Point taken and noted

 

[Abraham]

One of two things is going to happen in SF, which makes me pull out my hair.

On the one hand, they could find O'Sullivan stinks and he's on the bench by Halloween leading to an ugly rotation of Smith and Hill as the 49ers finish 4-12 and Nolan gets fired.

On the other hand, if O'Sullivan plays well then Nolan will most certainly keep him in under the idea that to keep his job, Nolan needs the team to be EONS better than last year. In that case, the Alex Smith Experiment will remain firmly on the bench, leading to a contract extension for O'Sullivan in the offseason (since that would be cheaper then drafting a 1st round QB to replace him and Smith, especially since Smith is making so much money) and a round of "We should have seen this coming!" on fantasy message boards.

In either event, I think the odds O'Sullivan finishes at QB29 or QB30 as he's currently projected are essentially nil. He's either going to finish as QB58 or so (scenario 1) or QB 13 or so (scenario 2).

 

[butcher boy]

And as far as Alex Smith is concerned, I cant see team taking that kind of hit against their cap especially after the extension he just signed last winter. JMOCheers

Actually, they structured his contract so that if they had to part ways with him after 4 years, the cap hit would be minimal.It's a real possibility to see Smith leave the team, and it'd be the best thing for him.

 

[Abraham]

And as far as Alex Smith is concerned, I cant see team taking that kind of hit against their cap especially after the extension he just signed last winter. JMOCheers

Actually, they structured his contract so that if they had to part ways with him after 4 years, the cap hit would be minimal.It's a real possibility to see Smith leave the team, and it'd be the best thing for him.

Looking back, it's funny how Smith and Rodgers were seperated by the thinnest of hairs at the draft. Smith goes #1, gets the big money, and finds the field first. Rodgers waits and waits and waits, and now he's in a MUCH better situation going forward.

 

[Gr00vus]

One of two things is going to happen in SF, which makes me pull out my hair. On the one hand, they could find O'Sullivan stinks and he's on the bench ...On the other hand...O'Sullivan plays well...

There's a third (and in my opinion just as likely scenario): O'Sullivan is injured for a significant period of time. I'm not buying the "improved" offensive line, and now Martz is there running his min-protect scheme. That spells a beating for whatever QB is back there.I think all three QBs, and maybe even a 4th, will take regular season snaps at some point. On a game to game basis they could be useful to a FF owner, but I wouldn't make long term plans around any of these guys.

 

[brednbuddah]

One of two things is going to happen in SF, which makes me pull out my hair.

On the one hand, they could find O'Sullivan stinks and he's on the bench ...

On the other hand...O'Sullivan plays well...

There's a third (and in my opinion just as likely scenario): O'Sullivan is injured for a significant period of time. I'm not buying the "improved" offensive line, and now Martz is there running his min-protect scheme. That spells a beating for whatever QB is back there.I think all three QBs, and maybe even a 4th, will take regular season snaps at some point. On a game to game basis they could be useful to a FF owner, but I wouldn't make long term plans around any of these guys.

 

[footballnerd]

JTO lead his team to two Superbowls in NFL Europe, and was named the league MVP. So he's at least had success to some level if not in the NFL. As well as some leadership qualifications.

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

I see O'sullivan being either really good or really bad from week to week. Your get his A game a few times and he will be a useable starter those weeks. Then when you need him 4 picks and 2 fumbles. Negative points.

With that said I have taken the chance on him a few teams of mine with favorable situations of a roster spot open for a late round QB. I even drafted him last round of a keeper draft value league where they lose 3 rounds of value a year so I can keep him at round 17 value next year if he does suceed. It is worth the risk to me. He plays Arizona second time week 10 when I need him with Romo on bye! By then I will know if hes worth the start or not and one thing great about draft value leagues always plenty of waiver options if he is a bust. Also I think he makes a great qb-3 to own in Dynastys. I have him on a couple of them at least! Draftmasters too as he could score for you here and there as the third qb!

 

[cws3030]

i think where is ADP is he is definitely worth the risk. i'd rather have him then pennington, trent edwards, or t.jackson. no one knows what the martz factor will be but it hasn't been to shabby in the past.

 

[ShadowMaster]

In either event, I think the odds O'Sullivan finishes at QB29 or QB30 as he's currently projected are essentially nil. He's either going to finish as QB58 or so (scenario 1) or QB 13 or so (scenario 2).

Well put. Too many SAFE picks from the experts at times. If you feel strongly about a player, don't worry that no experts agree with you.I have a guy I like this year that NOBODY has going before late round 6 - early 7, and if I'm right I'll have success in every draft where I grab him in round 6.JTO is an even better gamble way the later rounds where you can afford to take a home run swing on a pick. Personally, I'm a scenario 2 guy. I'm targeting the whole SF passing game as late round value backups. Johnson and Bruce are under-valued IMO, especially in PPR leagues.

 

[Floyd The Barber]

One of two things is going to happen in SF, which makes me pull out my hair. On the one hand, they could find O'Sullivan stinks and he's on the bench by Halloween leading to an ugly rotation of Smith and Hill as the 49ers finish 4-12 and Nolan gets fired. On the other hand, if O'Sullivan plays well then Nolan will most certainly keep him in under the idea that to keep his job, Nolan needs the team to be EONS better than last year. In that case, the Alex Smith Experiment will remain firmly on the bench, leading to a contract extension for O'Sullivan in the offseason (since that would be cheaper then drafting a 1st round QB to replace him and Smith, especially since Smith is making so much money) and a round of "We should have seen this coming!" on fantasy message boards.In either event, I think the odds O'Sullivan finishes at QB29 or QB30 as he's currently projected are essentially nil. He's either going to finish as QB58 or so (scenario 1) or QB 13 or so (scenario 2).

Given Mike Martz' track record at find gold "in them thar' hills", I'm shocked that anyone would dismiss JTO out of hand. He has all the earmarks of a classic Martz discovery (see Trent Green, Warner and Bulger).And I think barring injury, you're right on the mark: he'll etiher exceedingly outperform his ADP or flame out early.

 

[Norman Einstein]

I see O'sullivan being either really good or really bad from week to week. Your get his A game a few times and he will be a useable starter those weeks. Then when you need him 4 picks and 2 fumbles. Negative points. With that said I have taken the chance on him a few teams of mine with favorable situations of a roster spot open for a late round QB. I even drafted him last round of a keeper draft value league where they lose 3 rounds of value a year so I can keep him at round 17 value next year if he does suceed. It is worth the risk to me. He plays Arizona second time week 10 when I need him with Romo on bye! By then I will know if hes worth the start or not and one thing great about draft value leagues always plenty of waiver options if he is a bust. Also I think he makes a great qb-3 to own in Dynastys. I have him on a couple of them at least! Draftmasters too as he could score for you here and there as the third qb!

sorta like Derick Anderson?

 

[thecatch]

One of two things is going to happen in SF, which makes me pull out my hair. On the one hand, they could find O'Sullivan stinks and he's on the bench ...On the other hand...O'Sullivan plays well...

There's a third (and in my opinion just as likely scenario): O'Sullivan is injured for a significant period of time. I'm not buying the "improved" offensive line, and now Martz is there running his min-protect scheme. That spells a beating for whatever QB is back there.I think all three QBs, and maybe even a 4th, will take regular season snaps at some point. On a game to game basis they could be useful to a FF owner, but I wouldn't make long term plans around any of these guys.

I don't disagree with your main point, but I do think the O-Line will be much improved. Upgraded the OL coach, and I expect Staley will give them the best LT they've had in a long time. Niners are also set at C, and the guards should be decent. If they can get Jennings healthy at RT, it should be a good group.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

I see O'sullivan being either really good or really bad from week to week. Your get his A game a few times and he will be a useable starter those weeks. Then when you need him 4 picks and 2 fumbles. Negative points. With that said I have taken the chance on him a few teams of mine with favorable situations of a roster spot open for a late round QB. I even drafted him last round of a keeper draft value league where they lose 3 rounds of value a year so I can keep him at round 17 value next year if he does suceed. It is worth the risk to me. He plays Arizona second time week 10 when I need him with Romo on bye! By then I will know if hes worth the start or not and one thing great about draft value leagues always plenty of waiver options if he is a bust. Also I think he makes a great qb-3 to own in Dynastys. I have him on a couple of them at least! Draftmasters too as he could score for you here and there as the third qb!

sorta like Derick Anderson?

I agree. I drafted him in our rookie/free agent draft. I think the stars could align for him. It's certainly within the realm of possibility. He has some experience, experience in Martz's system which has produced fantasy success in the past, a couple of good weapons at his disposal (Gore, V. Davis), some experience at WR (Bruce), some intriguing WRs (Morgan, B. Johnson), so I think it COULD come together for him. Playing in the weakest division of the NFL will help. Ought to be interesting.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

Everyone laughed at the Vikings quarterbacks last year. Jackson, Holcomb, and Bollinger - and said how they were so bad - O'Sullivan couldn't make that roster, now the guy is suddenly fantasy worthy and Jackson is still a joke (among most on the board).

I don't get it.

 

[Gr00vus]

Everyone laughed at the Vikings quarterbacks last year. Jackson, Holcomb, and Bollinger - and said how they were so bad - O'Sullivan couldn't make that roster, now the guy is suddenly fantasy worthy and Jackson is still a joke (among most on the board).

I don't get it.

Shut up, Mr. Burton. You are not put upon this world to get it.Name that movie!

 

[goonsquad]

Everyone laughed at the Vikings quarterbacks last year. Jackson, Holcomb, and Bollinger - and said how they were so bad - O'Sullivan couldn't make that roster, now the guy is suddenly fantasy worthy and Jackson is still a joke (among most on the board).I don't get it.

Wasn't OS in Detroit with Martz last season?

 

[bcr8f]

Everyone laughed at the Vikings quarterbacks last year. Jackson, Holcomb, and Bollinger - and said how they were so bad - O'Sullivan couldn't make that roster, now the guy is suddenly fantasy worthy and Jackson is still a joke (among most on the board).I don't get it.

I never stopped laughing.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

Everyone laughed at the Vikings quarterbacks last year. Jackson, Holcomb, and Bollinger - and said how they were so bad - O'Sullivan couldn't make that roster, now the guy is suddenly fantasy worthy and Jackson is still a joke (among most on the board).

I don't get it.

Shut up, Mr. Burton. You are not put upon this world to get it.Name that movie!

Big Trouble In Little China

 

[T Bell]

Best case scenario for him is he's like Brock Huard in 2006 (no, I'm not predicting injury) and puts up strong numbers this year only to watch the team try as hard as it can to replace him next year.

If he's five games into this season and has put up decent to good numbers, I'd try like hell to sell high.

 

[Otis]

One of two things is going to happen in SF, which makes me pull out my hair.

On the one hand, they could find O'Sullivan stinks and he's on the bench by Halloween leading to an ugly rotation of Smith and Hill as the 49ers finish 4-12 and Nolan gets fired.

On the other hand, if O'Sullivan plays well then Nolan will most certainly keep him in under the idea that to keep his job, Nolan needs the team to be EONS better than last year. In that case, the Alex Smith Experiment will remain firmly on the bench, leading to a contract extension for O'Sullivan in the offseason (since that would be cheaper then drafting a 1st round QB to replace him and Smith, especially since Smith is making so much money) and a round of "We should have seen this coming!" on fantasy message boards.

In either event, I think the odds O'Sullivan finishes at QB29 or QB30 as he's currently projected are essentially nil. He's either going to finish as QB58 or so (scenario 1) or QB 13 or so (scenario 2).

100% agreed here. This is spot-on.

 

[KellysHeroes]

JTO is the prefect Sell High...

 

[Stealthycat]

I bought him in a couple of leagues. Worst case I spent a roster spot and small change salary cap and the potential there is HUGE.

Like betting $5 to stay for the river card and the pot is $350 - those are damn good odds

 

[Koya]

I see O'sullivan being either really good or really bad from week to week. Your get his A game a few times and he will be a useable starter those weeks. Then when you need him 4 picks and 2 fumbles. Negative points.

sorta like Derick Anderson?

Or Brett Favre?

Seriously, no one is drafting this guy in the 5th round. For one QB leagues, where you have plenty of options on the WW but not that many to get an elite talent (and IMO you either go elite/just below elite QB or punt the position for one QB redraft leagues), he is a no risk very high reward player.

In TWO QB leagues of 12+ TEAMS, where you need every chance to get a productive starter, he could be huge. The guy is the 25-30th QB taken, usually closer to 30. As noted, he will be a top 7 guy or will absolutely suck... but how many chances do you get for Martz upside in a QB? Not that many.

 

[taz]

I see O'sullivan being either really good or really bad from week to week. Your get his A game a few times and he will be a useable starter those weeks. Then when you need him 4 picks and 2 fumbles. Negative points.

sorta like Derick Anderson?

Or Brett Favre?

Seriously, no one is drafting this guy in the 5th round. For one QB leagues, where you have plenty of options on the WW but not that many to get an elite talent (and IMO you either go elite/just below elite QB or punt the position for one QB redraft leagues), he is a no risk very high reward player.

In TWO QB leagues of 12+ TEAMS, where you need every chance to get a productive starter, he could be huge. The guy is the 25-30th QB taken, usually closer to 30. As noted, he will be a top 7 guy or will absolutely suck... but how many chances do you get for Martz upside in a QB? Not that many.

He went undrafted in my 14-team PPR (along w/ Jackson and Croyle), and I'm seriously thinking about grabbing him to pair with Warner and Delhomme.

At the least, you know they'll be chucking it around the field, and I could see games where he's putting up solid garbage-time numbers.

It's impossible to predict for certain whether he'll succeed, but if his upside is that of Warner, Bulger and Kitna, you could do a lot worse as an injury fill-in or potential trade bait.

 

[skillz]

I think he is a good option as a real cheap backup for an owner such as myself who has Brady as the starter. I got JTO in the 16th round so i was able to load up on other positions and get him late. I only need to plug him in on Brady's bye (Week 4 v NO's horrible pass defense -- a game in which I expect him to play well). If JTO does play well this year then I have a good player that I can choose to trade to upgrade other positions or hold onto. I think there is nothing but upside to picking him if you can get him late. He has more upside IMO than guys like T. Jackson who are going ahead of him.