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Jake Locker is going to be the only non-bust QB in the first round (1 Viewer)

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Jake Locker is going to be the best QB of this class. He's going to slide down the board a little bit and land in a situation that sets him up for success. He's the best QB in this thing. Newton is going to fall victim to forces outside of football and Gabbert is another Alex Smith. Mark it down, Locker is going to be the best of the bunch and will be the head scratcher a few years from now as to why he went after busts Newton and Gabbert.

 
i was just thinking about posting this same message but replace Locker with Ryan Mallett. Gabbert will end up as a journeyman backup and Newton will not even make it to that level. Ryan Mallett has everything he needs to be a stud QB in the NFL and i think he projects as a borderline Pro-Bowler a la Big Ben. i think his character flaws have been overblown and, heck, you can't teach height and rocket arm-strength.

 
These are my comparisons...

Cam Newton = Vince Young: Newton might be smarter than Young, but he's a run first QB that has gotten this far on athletic ability; I think he will struggle to make the transition to the NFL.

Blaine Gabbert = Mark Sanchez: Both are high-upside, athletic signal callers that are coming out of college needing a lot of work; I like Gabbert for the long-term, but it might take a couple of years for him to get there.

Jake Locker = Donovan McNabb: Accuracy is a problem and decision making can be poor at times, but I think like McNabb, Locker has the leadership skills and drive to have a successful career.

Ryan Mallett = Derek Anderson: Big body, big arm, bad decision-making. A wild Joe Flacco.

Christian Ponder = (Poor Man's) Matthew Stafford: Serious injury concerns and only a midly successful college career. Pick would be based more on upside than anything else.

 
I would LOVE to see Locker be a successful NFL quarterback. I've been watching him closely since he was a junior in high school. I teach high school in a neighboring district. That said, I have strong doubts about his decision making when under pressure. What will happen when he's under a heavy NFL pass rush? I don't think we can say for sure, but that first match-up with Nebraska this last year was a bad omen. He got hammered and made some gut wrenching throws in that game.

 
You know, I hope you're right Sabertooth. I know that Dave Razzano, the former scout for the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals, and son of long-time scout Tony Razzano feels the same way about Locker. He believes Locker was hamstrung by the Washington offense and receivers and he believes the accuracy issues are vastly overstated. At the same time he also thinks Blaine Gabbert is overrated and only throws curls and all of the things he saw Locker do on the move he didn't see from Gabbert. However, I could recommend 3-4 games to him where he would see the things that he didn't see in whatever he watched.

I have a hope/fear ambivalence that the Titans get Locker. His toughness, personality, and desire to compete makes me say "please may the Titans get him!" But some of his issues that I wonder if he'll be able to overcome - such as speeding up his process to the point that he plays too frenetic and creates the much talked about issues compels me to ask, "please may someone get Locker before the Titans take him!"

I'd be the type of GM to take a chance on him, honestly. I might hate myself in the morning, but he has too much working for him that you have to expect that he'll overcome his issues. I may not be able to recommend him as highly from my analysis, but if I were operating by gut, I'd take the shot.

 
These are my comparisons...

Cam Newton = Warren Moon: give the kid a few years and he's going to be a monster throwing the rock. yes, throwing it.

Blaine Gabbert = Tim Couch:

Jake Locker = Jake Plummer:

Ryan Mallett = Kerry Collins:

Christian Ponder = Trent Edwards:
Added my comparisons
 
These are my comparisons...

Cam Newton = Warren Moon: give the kid a few years and he's going to be a monster throwing the rock. yes, throwing it.

Blaine Gabbert = Tim Couch:

Jake Locker = Jake Plummer:

Ryan Mallett = Kerry Collins:

Christian Ponder = Trent Edwards:
Added my comparisons
Wow. Warren Moon is an all-time great QB. He was slinging it in college and was never a runner. Very poor comparison.

 
These are my comparisons...

Cam Newton = Warren Moon: give the kid a few years and he's going to be a monster throwing the rock. yes, throwing it.

Blaine Gabbert = Tim Couch:

Jake Locker = Jake Plummer:

Ryan Mallett = Kerry Collins:

Christian Ponder = Trent Edwards:
Added my comparisons
Wow. Warren Moon is an all-time great QB. He was slinging it in college and was never a runner. Very poor comparison.
:goodposting: Hard to think of a QB more different from Cam Newton than Warren Moon.

 
I definitely think all of them can bust.

Of the lot, I like Ponder's potential the most.

I wouldn't draft Newton with a top pick if you threatened nuclear war...the Gruden QB camp with him was brutaly...guy is a phony.

I'm a Pac10 homer and I have serious doubts about Locker, he will need a year at the minimum before his accuracy is where it needs to be...and to be honest that's one of those things that sometimes never happens...huge gamble.

 
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Has anyone come up with a legitimate example of a qb who had the same type of pocket accuracy issues that have plagued Locker in college, and then went on to improve his accuracy and be a successful nfl qb?

Because I've got nothing and I've yet to hear anyone, analyst or otherwise, come up with an appropriate example either.

 
These are my comparisons...

Cam Newton = Warren Moon: give the kid a few years and he's going to be a monster throwing the rock. yes, throwing it.

Blaine Gabbert = Tim Couch:

Jake Locker = Jake Plummer:

Ryan Mallett = Kerry Collins:

Christian Ponder = Trent Edwards:
Added my comparisons
Wow. Warren Moon is an all-time great QB. He was slinging it in college and was never a runner. Very poor comparison.
:goodposting: Hard to think of a QB more different from Cam Newton than Warren Moon.
How about T.J. Rubley? He was way more different than Moon. He was white for one thing.
 
Couch Potato opinion --

Three bona fide NFL successes - Gabbert, Mallett, Ponder

Gut says he'll succeed, but less certain of it -- Kaepernick

Those who will struggle -- Newton, Dalton

Bust -- Locker

 
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Jake Locker is going to be the best QB of this class. He's going to slide down the board a little bit and land in a situation that sets him up for success. He's the best QB in this thing. Newton is going to fall victim to forces outside of football and Gabbert is another Alex Smith. Mark it down, Locker is going to be the best of the bunch and will be the head scratcher a few years from now as to why he went after busts Newton and Gabbert.
I have been saying this for a year now. Nothing new to me. Glad you marked it down when I told you.
 
These are my comparisons...

Cam Newton = Vince Young: Newton might be smarter than Young, but he's a run first QB that has gotten this far on athletic ability; I think he will struggle to make the transition to the NFL.

Blaine Gabbert = Mark Sanchez: Both are high-upside, athletic signal callers that are coming out of college needing a lot of work; I like Gabbert for the long-term, but it might take a couple of years for him to get there.

Jake Locker = Donovan McNabb: Accuracy is a problem and decision making can be poor at times, but I think like McNabb, Locker has the leadership skills and drive to have a successful career.

Ryan Mallett = Derek Anderson: Big body, big arm, bad decision-making. A wild Joe Flacco.

Christian Ponder = (Poor Man's) Matthew Stafford: Serious injury concerns and only a midly successful college career. Pick would be based more on upside than anything else.
You read too much rotoworld bro.
 
I think it's hard to say with certainty how Locker will end up...accuracy/decision making aren't problems that are always cured.

Locker is a boom/bust pick IMHO.

 
These are my comparisons...

Cam Newton = Warren Moon: give the kid a few years and he's going to be a monster throwing the rock. yes, throwing it.

Blaine Gabbert = Tim Couch:

Jake Locker = Jake Plummer:

Ryan Mallett = Kerry Collins:

Christian Ponder = Trent Edwards:
Added my comparisons
Wow. Warren Moon is an all-time great QB. He was slinging it in college and was never a runner. Very poor comparison.
:goodposting: Hard to think of a QB more different from Cam Newton than Warren Moon.
The ball jumps out of Newtons hand the same effortless way it did out of Moons. The talent is there. Look at Newtons HS career where he was a pocket passer whose athleticism was the question going into Florida. I realize its unpopular to like Newton here, and bah bah Vince Young all over again. IMHO Newton will be the best passer from this class. :shrug: Again, JMO.
 
The ball jumps out of Newtons hand the same effortless way it did out of Moons. The talent is there.
this means nothing...the ball "jumps" out of a lot of guys hands that all became busts.Arm strength, quick release aren't half as important as decision making, study habits, pocket presence etc.
 
A 1st round QB can be successful if they go to a good situation. I like Ponder the most of the guys that could go in the 1st round tonight. The best combo with situation would be Ponder to Minnesota (of the QB-needy teams at least). And the best possible chance at success would be for him to start the year (minimum) as a back-up. Just my 2 cents.

 
A 1st round QB can be successful if they go to a good situation. I like Ponder the most of the guys that could go in the 1st round tonight. The best combo with situation would be Ponder to Minnesota (of the QB-needy teams at least). And the best possible chance at success would be for him to start the year (minimum) as a back-up. Just my 2 cents.
I was thinking that any QB that Minny drafts at 12 is starting right away. What, he sits behind Joe Webb?
 
I think it's hard to say with certainty how Locker will end up...accuracy/decision making aren't problems that are always cured.

Locker is a boom/bust pick IMHO.
I'd go a step further. QBs with such accuracy issues and panic issues under a rush in college never survive in the pros. It's become fashionable lately to blame his dearth of talent around him at Washington, but that only goes so far. Some very prominent NFL people who would know have said if the accuracy isn't there, it isn't there, and it won't improve at the pro level significantly enough. Locker IMO will bust, period.
 
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These are my comparisons...

Cam Newton = Warren Moon: give the kid a few years and he's going to be a monster throwing the rock. yes, throwing it.

Blaine Gabbert = Tim Couch:

Jake Locker = Jake Plummer:

Ryan Mallett = Kerry Collins:

Christian Ponder = Trent Edwards:
Added my comparisons
Wow. Warren Moon is an all-time great QB. He was slinging it in college and was never a runner. Very poor comparison.
:goodposting: Hard to think of a QB more different from Cam Newton than Warren Moon.
It was a different era, but here is the link to moon's stats (could not find rushing), but he was hardly slinging it around. In fact, i remember him running the pure option (but most college teams did then). He wasn't a game changing runner, but his mobility was probably closer to Locker than any of the guys I can think of in this year's draft.http://www.totalfootballstats.com/PlayerQB.asp?id=2796

 
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I think it's telling that the 49ers have shown no interest in locker considering Jim harbaugh has coached against and seen plenty of him the past 3 years.

 
Jake Locker is going to be the best QB of this class. He's going to slide down the board a little bit and land in a situation that sets him up for success. He's the best QB in this thing. Newton is going to fall victim to forces outside of football and Gabbert is another Alex Smith. Mark it down, Locker is going to be the best of the bunch and will be the head scratcher a few years from now as to why he went after busts Newton and Gabbert.
I have been saying this for a year now. Nothing new to me. Glad you marked it down when I told you.
Who are you?
 
I think it's telling that the 49ers have shown no interest in locker considering Jim harbaugh has coached against and seen plenty of him the past 3 years.
Harbaugh is one of those quoted as stressing accuracy importance and that it can't be coached up all that much. I would guess Locker is scratched off his list.
 
Has anyone come up with a legitimate example of a qb who had the same type of pocket accuracy issues that have plagued Locker in college, and then went on to improve his accuracy and be a successful nfl qb?

Because I've got nothing and I've yet to hear anyone, analyst or otherwise, come up with an appropriate example either.
Here's the example that keeps popping into my head. Both very good runners, both had to run for their life behind bad o-lines, and both had next to nothing in terms of play makers on their offenses.Jay Cutler

Code:
PassingYear	School	        Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate2002	Vanderbilt	SEC	FR	QB	103	212	48.6	1433	6.8	5.8	10	9	112.42003	Vanderbilt	SEC	SO	QB	187	327	57.2	2347	7.2	6.5	18	13	127.72004	Vanderbilt	SEC	JR	QB	147	241	61.0	1844	7.7	7.5	10	5	134.82005	Vanderbilt	SEC	SR	QB	273	462	59.1	3073	6.7	6.7	21	9	126.1Career	Vanderbilt				710	1242	57.2	8697	7.0	6.6	59	36	125.9
Jake Locker
Code:
	PassingYear	School	        Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate2007	Washington	Pac-10	FR	QB	155	328	47.3	2062	6.3	5.1	14	15	105.02008	Washington	Pac-10	SO	QB	50	93	53.8	512	5.5	5.7	1	0	103.62009	Washington	Pac-10	JR	QB	230	395	58.2	2800	7.1	6.9	21	11	129.72010	Washington	Pac-10	SR	QB	184	332	55.4	2265	6.8	6.6	17	9	124.2Career	Washington				619	1148	53.9	7639	6.7	6.2	53	35	119.0
 
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Well the reports for months (in reality for years, as the Titans scouts loved Locker in 2009 too) came true and the Titans stuck to their guns and drafted this guy. I have watched games where I loved this kid, and then games where it was really, really ugly (Nebraska). But the Titans love him, and they've generally done a good job of picking talent that fits their scheme over the years. Their big problem has been picking talent over substance. Young had the talent and would have been a very good QB, but he was a buffoon. Locker is a leader and has great heart and desire.

I'll be rooting for this kid all the way, but there is no question he has serious bust potential.

 
Has anyone come up with a legitimate example of a qb who had the same type of pocket accuracy issues that have plagued Locker in college, and then went on to improve his accuracy and be a successful nfl qb?

Because I've got nothing and I've yet to hear anyone, analyst or otherwise, come up with an appropriate example either.
Here's the example that keeps popping into my head. Both very good runners, both had to run for their life behind bad o-lines, and both had next to nothing in terms of play makers on their offenses.Jay Cutler

Code:
PassingYear	School	        Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate2002	Vanderbilt	SEC	FR	QB	103	212	48.6	1433	6.8	5.8	10	9	112.42003	Vanderbilt	SEC	SO	QB	187	327	57.2	2347	7.2	6.5	18	13	127.72004	Vanderbilt	SEC	JR	QB	147	241	61.0	1844	7.7	7.5	10	5	134.82005	Vanderbilt	SEC	SR	QB	273	462	59.1	3073	6.7	6.7	21	9	126.1Career	Vanderbilt				710	1242	57.2	8697	7.0	6.6	59	36	125.9
Jake Locker
Code:
	PassingYear	School	        Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate2007	Washington	Pac-10	FR	QB	155	328	47.3	2062	6.3	5.1	14	15	105.02008	Washington	Pac-10	SO	QB	50	93	53.8	512	5.5	5.7	1	0	103.62009	Washington	Pac-10	JR	QB	230	395	58.2	2800	7.1	6.9	21	11	129.72010	Washington	Pac-10	SR	QB	184	332	55.4	2265	6.8	6.6	17	9	124.2Career	Washington				619	1148	53.9	7639	6.7	6.2	53	35	119.0
It's a good comparison. I think the accuracy thing is WAY overrated and not enough people are realizing how bad his weapons were. It's not that he can't put the ball in the right spot...it's that his completion percentage is low. Many reasons for that from dropped passes, to WR's that can't get open. Cutler at least had Earl Bennett, who became a decent NFL receiver. Washington? Nothing. This in itself doesn't guarantee success, but we've all seen NFL QB's struggle when they are surrounded by bad weapons, and then miraculously explode once they get playmakers.
 
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Well the reports for months (in reality for years, as the Titans scouts loved Locker in 2009 too) came true and the Titans stuck to their guns and drafted this guy. I have watched games where I loved this kid, and then games where it was really, really ugly (Nebraska). But the Titans love him, and they've generally done a good job of picking talent that fits their scheme over the years. Their big problem has been picking talent over substance. Young had the talent and would have been a very good QB, but he was a buffoon. Locker is a leader and has great heart and desire. I'll be rooting for this kid all the way, but there is no question he has serious bust potential.
Not sold on the Titans QB evalutions. If Lockers fails they will be looking like the Lions starting over and over again.Newton has all the physical tools you want in a QB, but what is very troubling is his total lack of knowledge of how an NFL offense operates. At Auburn is was one simple read and take off. That will work somewhat in the NFL but it does not last. Newton is not nearly on the same level Josh Freeman was coming in terms of running a NFL offense. A huge project type of QB.Ponder may do OK in Minny. Good o-line and a great RB will help.
 
Well the reports for months (in reality for years, as the Titans scouts loved Locker in 2009 too) came true and the Titans stuck to their guns and drafted this guy. I have watched games where I loved this kid, and then games where it was really, really ugly (Nebraska). But the Titans love him, and they've generally done a good job of picking talent that fits their scheme over the years. Their big problem has been picking talent over substance. Young had the talent and would have been a very good QB, but he was a buffoon. Locker is a leader and has great heart and desire. I'll be rooting for this kid all the way, but there is no question he has serious bust potential.
Not sold on the Titans QB evalutions. If Lockers fails they will be looking like the Lions starting over and over again.Newton has all the physical tools you want in a QB, but what is very troubling is his total lack of knowledge of how an NFL offense operates. At Auburn is was one simple read and take off. That will work somewhat in the NFL but it does not last. Newton is not nearly on the same level Josh Freeman was coming in terms of running a NFL offense. A huge project type of QB.Ponder may do OK in Minny. Good o-line and a great RB will help.
Talent was never the issue with Young. He could have been excellent if he had the mind for it. But I do agree, this pick could take us to the cellar for years if he busts.....
 
Well the reports for months (in reality for years, as the Titans scouts loved Locker in 2009 too) came true and the Titans stuck to their guns and drafted this guy. I have watched games where I loved this kid, and then games where it was really, really ugly (Nebraska). But the Titans love him, and they've generally done a good job of picking talent that fits their scheme over the years. Their big problem has been picking talent over substance. Young had the talent and would have been a very good QB, but he was a buffoon. Locker is a leader and has great heart and desire. I'll be rooting for this kid all the way, but there is no question he has serious bust potential.
Not sold on the Titans QB evalutions. If Lockers fails they will be looking like the Lions starting over and over again.Panthers had to take Newton on potential alone, but that comes with great risk/reward. The problem is that in the NFL we have seen so many potentially great QBs end up as busts. When that happnes with a #1 overall it sets back your franchise 5-6 years.Newton has all the physical tools you want in a QB, but what is very troubling is his total lack of knowledge of how an NFL offense operates. At Auburn is was one simple read and take off. That will work somewhat in the NFL but it does not last. Newton is not nearly on the same level Josh Freeman was coming in terms of running a NFL offense. A huge project type of QB.Ponder may do OK in Minny. Good o-line and a great RB will help.
Talent was never the issue with Young. He could have been excellent if he had the mind for it. But I do agree, this pick could take us to the cellar for years if he busts.....
 
I think Locker has a few things going for him.

1. A strong running game to go with his passing skills. He won't be asked to win games single handedly very often. Chris Johnson will make his transition into the NFL a lot easier.

2. A solid OL that needs a little work but is not terrible by any stretch.

3. A pretty solid WR in Kenny Britt who was showing flashes of amazing last year. Also has some other receivers and TEs with upside in this offense.

4. A HC that watched how Steve McNair was groomed and I expect the Titans to bring Locker along slowly.

He has some things in his favor that might help.

 
I think Locker has a few things going for him.

1. A strong running game to go with his passing skills. He won't be asked to win games single handedly very often. Chris Johnson will make his transition into the NFL a lot easier.

2. A solid OL that needs a little work but is not terrible by any stretch.

3. A pretty solid WR in Kenny Britt who was showing flashes of amazing last year. Also has some other receivers and TEs with upside in this offense.

4. A HC that watched how Steve McNair was groomed and I expect the Titans to bring Locker along slowly.

He has some things in his favor that might help.
I agree with most of your points, but I don't know that the Titans can bring him along slowly. Collins isn't going to last forever. I think Locker starts by mid-season. And the Titans improve in 2011 to .500
 
I think the accuracy thing is WAY overrated and not enough people are realizing how bad his weapons were. It's not that he can't put the ball in the right spot...it's that his completion percentage is low. Many reasons for that from dropped passes, to WR's that can't get open.
This is not a fair statement. Locker's weapons were just fine. WR J Kearse and RB C Polk will likely end up on NFL rosters. How can you make this statement after seeing Polk destroy Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl?
 
Has anyone come up with a legitimate example of a qb who had the same type of pocket accuracy issues that have plagued Locker in college, and then went on to improve his accuracy and be a successful nfl qb?

Because I've got nothing and I've yet to hear anyone, analyst or otherwise, come up with an appropriate example either.
Here's the example that keeps popping into my head. Both very good runners, both had to run for their life behind bad o-lines, and both had next to nothing in terms of play makers on their offenses.Jay Cutler

PassingYear School Conf Class Pos Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate2002 Vanderbilt SEC FR QB 103 212 48.6 1433 6.8 5.8 10 9 112.42003 Vanderbilt SEC SO QB 187 327 57.2 2347 7.2 6.5 18 13 127.72004 Vanderbilt SEC JR QB 147 241 61.0 1844 7.7 7.5 10 5 134.82005 Vanderbilt SEC SR QB 273 462 59.1 3073 6.7 6.7 21 9 126.1Career Vanderbilt 710 1242 57.2 8697 7.0 6.6 59 36 125.9Jake Locker
Code:
	PassingYear	School	        Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate2007	Washington	Pac-10	FR	QB	155	328	47.3	2062	6.3	5.1	14	15	105.02008	Washington	Pac-10	SO	QB	50	93	53.8	512	5.5	5.7	1	0	103.62009	Washington	Pac-10	JR	QB	230	395	58.2	2800	7.1	6.9	21	11	129.72010	Washington	Pac-10	SR	QB	184	332	55.4	2265	6.8	6.6	17	9	124.2Career	Washington				619	1148	53.9	7639	6.7	6.2	53	35	119.0
Interesting, but I can't recall anyone questioning Cutler's accuracy.And I know it's been several years, but I don't remember seeing any highlights of Cutler missing open receivers as badly as Locker has routinely done in college.

Someone mentioned last night that Farve had a similar completion % to Locker during this career at Souther Miss, but I don't remember anyone questioning his accuracy either.

 

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