Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
What do you think Jamaal Charles is now worth in dynasty leagues ?
Tim Hightower type of value ?
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Tim Hightower type of value ?
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Jamaal Charles trade value in DYNASTY leagues (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ron_Mexico
- Start date
bills025
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Unless a team is a serious contender that needs RB help, I think Charles still has to be worth more than Hightower.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I think he is a top 25 RB still, but not top 15. I wouldn't trade Forte, Mathews, Best, or Blount for him. In the right situation I would trade Gore, SJax, or Turner for him. Hightower is fair (although Hightower's value might have peaked 1 week ago, so I'd be wary of trading for him). Daniel Thomas is another name that has about equal value IMO.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
I actually own both in separate leagues, just trying to gauge fair value.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I would send Blount for him in an instant if I weren't in win-now mode. Even if I was, depending on RB depth.Best and Mathews would be tough, but I'd probably send Mathews for him too, and my opinion on sending Best or not would change every week.I think you're too injury-averse with this statement. ACL heals in about a year, which means he should be fine at the start of next season. He's still super young too. I'd want something like RB14-20 and WR14-20 for him if I was in a good position to win it this year, and wouldn't trade him if I was going to peak next season unless I got great value.
doowain
Footballguy
Of course there is concern.I gotta figure that youth is the trump card in this scenario.
doowain
Footballguy
Only way you sell, IMO, is if you believe he doesn't return to form (or at least close to it).
No way you cut bait on a player of his caliber, just to get a replacement for him. There are plenty of stopgap options out there to give you points while you wait on him (Fred Jackson, McGahee, TJones, etc).
No way you cut bait on a player of his caliber, just to get a replacement for him. There are plenty of stopgap options out there to give you points while you wait on him (Fred Jackson, McGahee, TJones, etc).
DoubleG
Footballguy
Most RBs who tear an ACL have a major drop in production their first year back. It's not until year 2 that they tend to put up pre-injury type numbers. There have been numerous articles written on this. In recent history (i.e. the last 10 years) there have only been 2-3 exceptions - Jamal Lewis, Deuce Mc and one other one (I can't recall) - none relied on speed and quickness the way Charles does.IMHO, if you are making a move for Charles in dynasty, it is for 2013 (for a possible top 15 back), not 2012 (where he will likely be a weak RB2, if history holds).
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I am very injury averse on RBs. I wouldn't expect him to be full speed at the beginning of 2012. I think the chances he has 1600 total yards in any future season is less than 50%. You are holding for Bradshaw numbers, not Charles numbers.
Onions
Footballguy
Fixed.
az_prof
Footballguy
I would like to know more about the specific nature of his injury. Caddy suffered a patellar tendon injury to his knee in 2007 and he has never really fully recovered. McGahee suffered a horrific knee injury his senior year in college and although he put together a good pro career, it definitely changed his game in a negative way. On the other hand, Rober Smith had two ACL injuries, one on each knee, and although he lost two years of play, he came back from both injuries as fast as ever. So, I think there is risk, but I think how severe the injury is can make a difference.It would be nice to see someone do a study of ACL injuries and HBs. How many come back 12 months after the injury and are as good as they were before? How many never come back? How many take two years? My gut feeling is that the success rate these days is close to 75% in terms of guys coming back and not really losing that much, within about 12 months of the injury. But it would be nice to see some concrete data.The other question for Dynasty is LONG term productivity of guys who have had ACL injuries. Here MY IMPRESSSION is that the length of a guy's career may be negatively impacted. So, if the average star HB starts 5 season (a guess), my suspicion is that guys who have had an ACL lose at least a couple of years. So, there is some short term damage to the player's value (he is out this year), some risk of near term value loss (a certain percentage won't play well again the next season), and a larger risk of long term career loss (do these guys play as long?). Thus, I do think you have to knock Charles down from a top 5 guy to a top 15 guy. I think there is a good chance he comes back next year and is again a top 15 back at least. But there is a small chance that won't happen. And there is a greater chance (I THINK) that his total career may not be as long.
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shader
Footballguy
Edgerrin was UNBELIEVABLE pre-injury and was still very good post injury. However, he definitely never reached the heights he otherwise would have.
Such a shame for Charles. Showed such potential.
Hopefully he can get the best surgeons possible and get back to 100%. It's possible, just not likely.
Such a shame for Charles. Showed such potential.
Hopefully he can get the best surgeons possible and get back to 100%. It's possible, just not likely.
az_prof
Footballguy
The other question for Charles dynasty owners who may be wanting to Sell, is when is the optimal time to sell him now? Is this the high point of his value? Or, will he be more valuable next August, when he is playing in a preseason game and when the injury has been forgotten a bit? Even if you think the injury may shorten his career or cause the arc of his career to decline some, it still might be advantageous to wait until he returns to the field and people start buzzing about how he has "it" again. Where that approach might NOT work, is where the team has a good backup who emerges, and who ends up securing a larger role in the offense even when the star DOES return. This is the problem now facing Foster owners: Tate is a back who has a decent pedigree and who has now emerged in his own right. You would have been much better selling Foster after Week 1 then trying to sell him now. And the longer that hammy injury lingers, and the better that Tate does, the weaker the value for Foster going forward.
Jaysports
Footballguy
Just to give you an idea, I just traded Charles in a PPR dynasty where I am one of the favorite to win this year. I got Wells in return. I agree that he is two years away from "maybe" being a top 10ish back again, I'm just not patient enough to wait that long especially when I'm in win now mode.
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Captain Hook
Footballguy
I disagree with this to the point that you might have a team set up to win this year and need a good starting RB - seems like a classic keeper league trade for a contending team to trade Charles to a team that is or needs to rebuild for a very good, maybe older (maybe more expensive for leagues that use salaries) RB that would help the contender THIS year.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Week 1 of 2010 or 2011? Waiting 1 and 7/8 of a year for a RB is a long wait. Especially if the price tag is Wells, Daniel Thomas, or another RB who could easily run for 1200 yards this year.Ben Tate had an ACL tear last August and is obviously performing well at the moment. There are definitely different grades of this and we may not know how severe it was until we see how limited or not he is next July or August.'Dr. Octopus said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I was referring to this year with Welker of course - and I don't necessarily disagree with your trade value assessment as there is plenty of good thngs to be said about present production and reducing future risk - I was just stating that I'm not sure a player loses speed with simple ACL tears anymore with the way the surgery and rehab has advanced.I don't know the extent of Charles' tear of course but given the way it happened my guess is it is more of the "clean cut" then a messy one.
Otis
Footballguy
I own Charles in my one and only 10-years-and-running dynasty league. I'm the reigning champ and would like to win again, so I offered him around. Nobody wants to carry the dead roster spot, and people are offering peanuts. I think the best offer I got so far was Anquan Boldin. Everyone is wary of the return from ACL, and his value is incredibly low.
DoubleG
Footballguy
This is in the other Charles thread, but I thought re-posting it here might help (it's the article I referenced above about most RBs taking a full 2 years to recover from ACL):
2 Year ACL recovery for RBs
NOTE: Modern medecine has been amazing in shortening recovery times - heck, 25 years ago, a torn ACL was career ending. But I think this is still a valid article.
2 Year ACL recovery for RBs
NOTE: Modern medecine has been amazing in shortening recovery times - heck, 25 years ago, a torn ACL was career ending. But I think this is still a valid article.
Warpig
Footballguy
I offered MJD and some marginal players for Charles and some players I could use as starters to an owner who has a strong team and could push for a playoff spot/championship this year. The players I wanted from him were at the lower end of his starters.
I got rejected. This is a contract league with years and caps. MJD and Charles had similar contracts even.
Good luck to the guy.
I got rejected. This is a contract league with years and caps. MJD and Charles had similar contracts even.
Good luck to the guy.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Wow. That was a very solid offer, shocked that he turned it down.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
This. I put him up on our trade bait board and have been vocally shopping him this week. All I am hearing are crickets....... Everyone in our league feels since it is only two weeks in that they are all in "win now" mode..........
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I hate when people post stuff like this, but what kind of league are you in where you can pick up a "stop-gap" RB like Fred Jackson, McGahee, T Jones (although in some leagues I could see Jones being available)?I can't see how any serious league would have Fred Jackson on the WW, or McGahee for that matter, unless it's a 6-team league.
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pittstownkiller
Footballguy
Dynasty value at the moment near valueless, with marginal value at the end of the year; of course all depends on your roster size, league size, and the skill of your league mates. In most leagues when you are going into next year drafts, Charles will have no stats to even be on anyone's radar let alone the fantasy magazines that will be printed before he even starts to workout. Take what you can get for him and if not anything release him, there are better options for a dead roster spot than him; of course, you have to hold him to see if he goes on IR to shelve him in my league (that can cause you to miss the waiver-wire). 2 years to produce; I would rather take a risk on an uninjured rookie type back, with talent, whose situation is going to change in the future.
Jayrod
Footballguy
I have a friend who owns Charles in our dynasty league. His team is ridiculously stacked and he is the easy favorite to win the league this year after he got hosed in the playoffs last year.
Today, he got offered Michael Turner for Charles from the worst team in the league. This other guy is obviously looking toward next year (0-2, with lots of key players hurt).
I told him I'd take it if I were him. He could use a more reliable RB than what he has currently (Moreno, Mendenhall & Sproles), and he wouldn't really be giving up much.
Today, he got offered Michael Turner for Charles from the worst team in the league. This other guy is obviously looking toward next year (0-2, with lots of key players hurt).
I told him I'd take it if I were him. He could use a more reliable RB than what he has currently (Moreno, Mendenhall & Sproles), and he wouldn't really be giving up much.
Jaysports
Footballguy
If I had to guess, I believe he meant you can go out and trade for those guys on the cheap. Those are all older players with low trade value who you can acquire pretty easy.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
I couldn't disagree more with this assessment.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
This trade involving Charles just went down in a 16 team ppr IDP league. I wasn't involved.
The Purple Headed Warriors gave up:
Gore, Frank SFO RB
Colston, Marques NOS WR
Sloppy Seconds gave up:
Charles, Jamaal KCC RB
Gibson, Brandon STL WR
Nicholas, Stephen ATL LB
Year 2012 Round 3 Draft Pick from Salty Dogs
Year 2013 Round 3 Draft Pick from Sloppy Seconds
The Purple Headed Warriors gave up:
Gore, Frank SFO RB
Colston, Marques NOS WR
Sloppy Seconds gave up:
Charles, Jamaal KCC RB
Gibson, Brandon STL WR
Nicholas, Stephen ATL LB
Year 2012 Round 3 Draft Pick from Salty Dogs
Year 2013 Round 3 Draft Pick from Sloppy Seconds
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strong
Footballguy
thanks. i made another change.
Seriously, *release* Charles? ....okaaayyyy...
I kind of wonder if that's a joke. Even Plaxico had value on the way IN to prison.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Fullback Fro
yesno
ACL tears this early in the season on one year hiccups with the advancement in modern knee reconstruction. Very little speed will be lost. Jamal will be fine next year. His coaching staff and surrounding talent will be his biggest obstacle next season.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
i'd jump on a deal for either mjd or turner right now
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
In the league where I own THT (have a top-3 contending team and plan on starting THT most weeks in my flex) I'd accept an offer of Charles for him in about 2 seconds. Charles is no longer a tier one player (as in top 5/6 overall, but he's young enough to have plenty of career left after comin back. I like Hightower and all, but come on, he's a 20ish RB (rank weekly) and a decent flex guy in most leagues. And would anyone be all that surprised if he lost the job or ended up in RBBC this year, let alone next and beyond?
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
Not a joke but I can easily see why people might disagree; it is why I put in the disclaimer about your particular league. In my league we have small roster sizes, making it much harder to carry an injured player, also by it being a 10 team league, with small rosters, it does present some WW options that are desirable. I would hold out till KC places him on the IR then I could shelf him in my league but sometimes teams take awhile to actually do this and it could cost me a decent WW option. Dynasty does has the ability of allowing you to build very deep bench strength but no one is losing Charles without it hurting, your ability to deal with this hurt is dependent on your particular team situation. I could not see me not making a move that would keep my team viable for this year; too many dynasty players stockpile long-shots and injured players always thinking of the future and forget the now. I think I would be able to get someone that in one year's time has talent, opportunity, and health; something that I am not sure can or will be said of Charles' situation. I probably could land Charles for Fred Davis (plus others to make the RB for TE work) and we carry three TE's. Does Charles have value, I guess to some, but so does the roster slot and it can't be clogged, for long, with someone that isn't playing this year.Any news on if Charles was put on IR, BTW?
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FallenHero32
Footballguy
He was put on IR yesterday. When the various fantasy leagues update their charts I don't know. Haley confirmed it though.'pittstownkiller said:
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Big mistake on your end.Fitz is doing well now, but I am not sure he is the future QB of the Bills.'OddibeMcD said:
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Even if your league only rosters 40 total RBs, which would be fewer than any dynasty league that I've ever seen, Jamaal Charles easily makes that cut. Even if, for some reason, you don't personally have him in the top 40, then he still isn't CUTTABLE, because I guarantee that at least one other owner will trade something for him.
ben tate broke his ankle, no acl tear. im not sure there are different grades of acl tears, but there are often accompanying injuries, such as mcl and meniscus damage. acl tears are reconstructed by removing the damaged ligament and usually replacing with hamstring or patella graft.
eakfootball
Footballguy
I am a Charles owner, but I probably wouldn't take anything less than MJD or Best for him.
Coach3K
Footballguy
He has not "officially" been placed on IR yet - he doesn't show up on the NFL transaction page: http://www.nfl.com/transactionsOf course, it's a foregone conclusion, but this does affect those of us with IR slots in their leagues but waivers processing tonight.
For reference, Berry didn't show up until Wednesday the 14th after Week 1 - and Moeaki was placed on the official IR list on Saturday the 3rd after their Thursday game on the 1st.
Parrish is on the transaction page today and both Thomas Davis and Shipley showed on the official report yesterday. It looks like KC likes to take a few days to file the official paperwork.
Andrew74
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
That article doesn't support the conclusion it says it does. Answer this question:Given a good performance in Year N, what percentage of running backs will have a similar or better performance in Year N+2?
The answer is, "Not many." Probably less than 25%. Of the top 24 RBs in 2010, only 8 were in the top 24 in 2008. So an article that shows that since 2000, three of eight RBs have come back with a good season in Year N+1 after a major injury is basically saying, "meh. They have about as much chance as anyone else."
Charles is not going to come back and run for 6.4 yards per carry, but he wasn't going to do that anyway. There's no reason to believe he can't still be effective, assuming Kansas City's offense gets a little bit of a clue before then.
