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I'm going to sell that. I'm sure there will be games where he gets over 100 yards rushing, but there will also be games where he won't get 100 yards rushing. KC is still a bad team and I'm sure there will be quite a few games where they are down early and will be playing catchup by throwing the ball. In those situations, he'll be involved in the passing game. If you'd said he'd get 1,600 yards combined rushing and receiving, I'd buy that, but I don't see him getting 1,600 yards rushing.
Wow, I'm very much a Charles supporter but I'm definitely selling on that. The chiefs are going to find a complimentary back to help share the load. I just don't see Charles (or want from a dynasty perspective) touting the ball 350 times which he would need to obtain 1600 yards.At 350 carries charles would need to average 4.28 yards per carry (the avg is realistic but not over that span). I don't see him getting 350 and if he is on pace, DCs will start planning on stopping him as he would be their whole offense. Definite sell. I'm not sure I've ever been so sure of something in fantasy football.
I'm not buying into 1600 rushing... I'm hoping for combined yards in that neighborhood w/ PPR on top as a bonus.
I say sell too but this is a good point. DCs may now know about him and not just game plan to stop the "Dynamic Duo" of Pope and Chambers like they did last year.
This is very flawed. A large portion of the preseason top 12 get injured and miss time (alos applies to the prior year's top 12 and their chances of repeating). So if that counts as busting, then you're right.
Fair enough. I just think Charles will under perform his draft slot = BUST. And i also don't think he will reach 1600 yards.
This depends on where his draft slot ends up being... I've seen early redraft mocks/rankings with him as high as the #5 overall pick, I've seen other mocks with him going in the 3rd round. As we get closer to the season and his ADP becomes more concrete THEN we'll be able to predict whether or not he'll outperform his draft slot or bust.
Not knowing the entire situation in KC and where he is getting drafted makes it impossible to tell if he'll be a good pick or a bad pick. If the Chiefs use a high picl or sign a free agent RB and it looks like Charles will be a part-ime or split time player, that would answer a lot of questions right there.
First, Cincy was the #7 rush defense in 2009 and Denver was close to average run defense wise before they gave up 259 and 2 TDs to Charles. Second, I am sure in some cases he is overvalued, but you may want to look at the KC 2010 schedule before panning his end of year schedule.While there are no guarantees of repeats, he plays SD (#20) twice, Oakland (#29) twice, Denver (#26) twice, Indy (#24), St. Louis (#27), Cleveland (#28), Seattle (#15, but #25 in TDs), Houston (#10, but #25 in TDs), Buffalo (#30), Arizona (#17), Jacksonville (#19), Tennesse (#10, but #23 in TDs) and SF (#6, but #16 in TDs).
if you said 60-70 recs , I'd sign on for that..he's going to be a dangerous receiver working with Weiss..not sure about 1600 yards, but the recs are going to pile up with this Weiss/Charles combo!
I will admit I am biased because I can keep him with such a late draft pick, but there are 3 big reasons I like him a lot this year:1. Schedule - See my post above, may not be a guarantee, but he looks to have one of the best RB schedules I can remember. People mention his late year stats against bad teams. Well, in 6 of his last 8 games he had 117 to 262 total yards and 6 total TDs. He plays the teams he dominated last year 8 times. That's right, he plays half of his games against the same folks he did great against last year and that doesn't count Indy or St. Louis.2. Opportunity - Lots of people keep talking about complimentary backs, but when the head coach lauds him and talks about how well he did, exceeding expectations and being named the team MVP, I don't see RB being the position that they will spend free agent/high draft picks on. He is a good receiver, so he should be able to see a significant amount of playing time whether the Chiefs are up or way down, etc. He doesn't have to come out of the game.3. The NFL loves to copy and the CJ phenomenon opens the way for guys like Charles to become the RB1 on the team. I don't see a reason why the Chiefs would decide to not use the guy who seemed like their best offensive weapon last year.
By the time August rolls around his ADP will not be mid to late 2nd. He's already in most top 10's. I've seen some drafts with him going 3rd overall. I own him and even I will say the hype train is out of control.
That is insane....talk about a speculation stock with a high PE ratio....he has no earnings record at all except for last year....if he is top 3...he needs to be moved for some proven player in dynasty....wow.
At this point it seems his trade value falls right in line with Frank Gore. Gore right now falls anywhere between 5 and 12 on most drafts.
Perception alone like this makes you have to deal Charles for Gore. Remember that 12 months ago Forte was perceived this high - and look how that turned out.There's very little upside for a player perceived to be a Top 10 RB. Best to trade for a more proven one before the floor falls out.
The upside is that you might get RB who's a #1 starter for the next 5-6 years instead of 2-3. I think the odds are well over 50% that Charles is the real deal, so I'm holding.
This. It's not that I don't believe in Charles, it's that I believe 1600 is a really, really high threshold for ANY back. In the six seasons from '02 to '07, LDT finished every year as a top 3 fantasy RB... and he failed to crack even 1500 rushing yards in three of those six seasons. Clinton Portis has never run for 1600 yards. Priest Holmes did it once (1615 yards in 2002). Marshall Faulk never even topped 1400 yards rushing. Curtis Martin had 10 straight 1000 yard seasons to begin his career, and he didn't top 1600 yards until his 10th season (and he didn't top 1500 yards rushing until his 7th season). 1600 rushing yards is a really, really high threshold. I'm not sure I'd buy on Chris Johnson topping 1600 next year.Now... 1800 yards from scrimmage is a more reasonable goal. That's been topped 43 times in the past decade, which is still a high standard, but more reachable. I'd personally be putting my money at Charles topping 1600 YFS- that would be my personal break-even point on whether I'd buy or sell.
Cool, kudos for making a strong call and being confident in it. I hope it works out for you.You may just want to ignore all the idiots who are going to jump on you because they don't have the gall to make a call for themselves.
