Like the poorest man in the history of the universe poor? 'Cause the only way you make him look like Alexander is if you tape a cardboard cutout of Alexander to his butt.Jamaal Charles did it last year with Chan Gailey as OC..Weiss >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Chan Gailey.I don't get it either nor do I see a difference between him and J. Harrison. Both have so much confidence from their coaches that RBs were brought in to compete with them.
KC gets T. Jones and drafts McCluster (who could play a similar role) while CLE drafts Hardesty, grabs Hillis and already has a couple more RBs. Yet Charles gets lots of love. Which is odd considering a couple years ago he was "too small".
the Jets thought so highly of TJ they let him go..he's old.he's a great clubhouse guy, but his ypc avg was atrocious down the stretch last season,and if you can't run behind the terrific Jets o-line, you can't run behind any line..
he's no threat to Charles, if anything,he's a good RB to spell Charles from time to time.
Charles recs should go thru the roof with Weiss as Oc.
Hillis is a never-has-been RB who's best suited for a position as a p/t player.
Harrison is the real deal,and Mangini will use him ad-nauseum this season..he's already made statements hinting about it..
and I think Holmgren's advice and knowledge helps turn Harrison into a poor man's Shaun Alexander - i.e., a workhorse RB..
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Jamaal Charles (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter oukurt
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gianmarco
Footballguy
I know it's been pointed out by others, but do you have ANY indication that T. Jones will get more carries than Charles? Is it purely speculative? If so, what's the reasoning behind it?
The Jacket
Footballguy
The Jacket
Footballguy
Not wrong about the opposition. But you speak as if he'll be facing 16 top 16 defenses this year. That's far from the case. In fact, he's got a pretty nice schedule. Plenty of games which he could drop another 200/2 on some team. And please stop with the "perfect storm" stuff. There was nothing perfect whatsoever about Charles' situation. He played behind a garbage OL on a team with no passing game and a bad defense, often behind early in the game which if anything stole some carries. The guy ran over every team in every quarter of the games. He's not some nickel and dime back in the 4th quarter.
Todem
Footballguy
I just watched him play...he is the real deal.....I'll take Charlie Casserlys word on that one. He raved about Charles when the Chiefs grabbed him and called him the steal of the draft. I remember very well he said give him a year or 2 of off-season NFL conditioning (the kid was a track star at Texas so he did not live and breath football year round) and he will be a 3 down star......get ready people it's coming...this season.
Casserly has a great eye for talent (Mario Williams over Reggie Bush anyone?). And he looks like he will be dead on about Charles. McCluster...is a raw rookie...who needs to learn the details of route running to play the slot. He may end up being a great WR...but to expect him to take so much away from Charles out of the back field as a rookie? Naaaaa.
Casserly has a great eye for talent (Mario Williams over Reggie Bush anyone?). And he looks like he will be dead on about Charles. McCluster...is a raw rookie...who needs to learn the details of route running to play the slot. He may end up being a great WR...but to expect him to take so much away from Charles out of the back field as a rookie? Naaaaa.
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thecardiackid
Footballguy
I'm feeling a group hug coming on after the last 2 posts, and all the 
Sorry, but you're not invited MW.
Sorry, but you're not invited MW.
I outlined some of these in another thread awhile ago, but here goes.
I think Charles is the real deal, but these are my concerns:
* Haley has made it clear that he thinks Charles is undersized and would wear down eventually if they didn't bring in another back, which leads me to think that back will get real work.
* Charles is supposedly working on adding bulk, and, while that could be good, it doesn't always end up being a smart move (see Steve Slaton).
* Based on his experience in NE, Weis seems to favor big backs.
* 3 of Charles' 4 huge final games came in close losses, and the other came in a blowout win, so he saw 20, 24, 25, and 25 carries. How often will that happen?
* If the Chiefs really believe Charles is a guy they can build around, but don't think they will compete this year, it actually makes sense for them to hold him back a bit this year and really unleash him and let it all ride when they're really making a championship run. So, the fact that they covet him could actually mean less carries -- why risk injury to your star when you're not realistically competing?
I still see him having a lot of value, but I think there are legitimate reasons to temper expectations a bit.
I think Charles is the real deal, but these are my concerns:
* Haley has made it clear that he thinks Charles is undersized and would wear down eventually if they didn't bring in another back, which leads me to think that back will get real work.
* Charles is supposedly working on adding bulk, and, while that could be good, it doesn't always end up being a smart move (see Steve Slaton).
* Based on his experience in NE, Weis seems to favor big backs.
* 3 of Charles' 4 huge final games came in close losses, and the other came in a blowout win, so he saw 20, 24, 25, and 25 carries. How often will that happen?
* If the Chiefs really believe Charles is a guy they can build around, but don't think they will compete this year, it actually makes sense for them to hold him back a bit this year and really unleash him and let it all ride when they're really making a championship run. So, the fact that they covet him could actually mean less carries -- why risk injury to your star when you're not realistically competing?
I still see him having a lot of value, but I think there are legitimate reasons to temper expectations a bit.
massraider
Footballguy
Has this ever occurred, in the history of the universe?
CaptainHook
Footballguy
he seems undervalued if anything
love this guy in rd 2
love this guy in rd 2
CaptainHook
Footballguy
No.
Whether it works as planned is another question in terms of timing it right, but you don't think teams have ever held back a young RB a bit by not giving him as many carries as they otherwise could have?
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
won't he have retired by then?
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
Maybe because they don't think he's ready to handle a full workload, but not because they don't think they will compete.
At least that's what the teams will say in the press. Of course, no team will ever say "we're going to suck this year, so it's not worth burning a guy out." They need to keep people in the seats, so they will always make the appearance of trying to compete, but, internally, every team has some sort of timeline/window they're working with. And if they feel that they're putting the pieces together to really make a run in a year or two, why burn out your young RB, knowing what a short shelf life those guys have when you could save him and likely also suppress his salary demands for a bit longer, too? I bet this happens more than most people think.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
since most people don't think it ever happens at all you just might be right.
massraider
Footballguy
I don't, and I'll tell you why. The guy who would make that decision, the head coach, doesn't have the job security to tank a season. The difference between a team going 3-13 and 6-10 is pretty massive, in terms of perception. Also, these guys don't really care about extending players careers, for the most part.
footballsavvy
Footballguy
This is exactly right. Hence, Chris Johnson's gaudy number of carries last season. The only time a guy gets "rested" is when the team is doing very good. Either they have the game at hand, or the playoffs clinched. Only then will you see a sincere restriction in carries by their premiere back.Unless, of course, you are the Panthers who are equally as potent with either back on the field. In this case, Thomas Jones simply isn't that good and he mediocrity will be exposed on his new football team.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
The only thing I will add is that if anyone is listening to talk that Jamaal Charles is too small to be a lead back in the NFL, they aren't watching how this kid runs. His issues were ball protection and opting for higher risk, big-play decisions rather than taking the lower risk, smaller play decisions that kept his team on schedule.
sigh.... He got the majority of his opportunities after the Chiefs were 3-10 and playing out the string, waiting on 2010. They were dead in the water as a franchise, and gave Charles a huge workload due to the other factors I have previously mentioned. In anticipation of 2010, they went out and snagged Thomas Jones in free agency, and drafted a hybrid guy who COULD eat into Charle's 3rd down touches. That doesn't scream "CHARLES IS OUR GUY" to me.Kool-Aid Larry said:
The Chiefs haven't had much beyond a few walk-throughs yet. Dexter McCluster worked as a WR in one of those, and as a RB in the other. LINK Of COURSE it's speculative. The team made moves in free agency and the draft at this position. The depth chart has significantly changed since 2009. Whose opinion on the 2010 situation in KC ISN"T speculative at this point in the offseason? I have an outlier opinion on what those moves mean. I'm sure everyone is shocked that I'm an outlier on a "hot property" player.gianmarco said:
I don't think some great games against horrid defenses after the KC club was 3-10 is a good barometer of Charles' future value. As others have pointed out, the team WANTED to play Larry Johnson and did so for many, many weeks until they were forced to make a change.
Some folks don't like my analysis that Charles was lucky to get 5.9 yards per carry last season due to many other, anomalous and unlikely-to-be-repeated dynamics in play in KC last year - fine. I think he was lucky, and did well in situations VERY conducive to scoring lots of fantasy points, especially in PPR formats. I don't see that "perfect storm" brewing for Charles this year.
Much like Eric Metcalf 1989 CLE RB, Charle's 2009 KC season at RB was an anomaly, IMO.
MW
gianmarco
Footballguy
No offense, but nothing in that post even remotely answers why you think THOMAS JONES will get more carries than Charles. I understand you think 2009 was an anomaly for Charles. I understand you think his 5.9 ypc will come down (so do I). I understand you think he won't be as effective as last year. That still doesn't explain how he will somehow NOT be the lead RB in the RBBC there. They are not mutually exclusive ideas. He can be less effective will still have more carries. Nothing you explained above addresses why you think he will now become second fiddle to a 32 RB and why you think T. Jones will get 250 carries in that offense.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Again, what was the alternative to signing T. Jones? Go into the season with Jackie Battle and Kolby Smith as the backups? SOMEONE had to be brought in. T. Jones was signed for $5 million over 2 years. That's pocket change. That's a short term move. Why didn't KC draft a RB if they didn't feel Charles could handle the load or wasn't the future? SD was in a similar situation and drafted a RB. Buffalo was in a similar situation and drafted a RB. Houston was in a similar situation and drafted a RB. Cleveland was in a similar situation and drafted a RB. KC, on the other hand, didn't draft a single RB (McCluster was drafted as a WR). For a young, rebuilding team, do you think they brought in Jones because he's the future?
Also, here are various tidbits about Charles so far. Sure, it could be coachspeak. But we've also heard plenty of "there's no clear starter" and "the best player will start" from coaches in the past. It seems pretty clear that Jamaal is their starter from the comments below:
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Coach Todd Haley indicated that the addition of Thomas Jones had nothing to do with questions of Jamaal Charles' durability."I wouldn't say it's about Jamaal so much as it's about the way of the league right now," said Haley. "You need two quality backs." The Chiefs had one of the worst backup situations in the league, so adding Jones as a physical complement to Charles will provide valuable insurance in the backfield.
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Coach Todd Haley confirmed that the Chiefs' signing of Thomas Jones is not a reflection that Kansas City is down on Jamaal Charles."I don’t believe we’ve seen the best from Jamaal," Haley said. "Jamaal has his focus set on being...one of the better players in the league, so he’s got a lot of drive in that direction." The possible loss of goal-line work to Jones is a concern, but Charles is likely to remain a clear-cut featured back. After he saw 230 touches in '09, 280-300 should be within reach, even with Jones on board.
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Chiefs owner Clark Hunt indicated that the team no longer has doubts about Jamaal Charles' ability to handle a full load of carries.Clark believes Charles, similar in size to Chris Johnson, "plays like a big player." He also praised Charles' "heart" and his ability to "carry a load that we didn't expect he'd be able to carry." The Chiefs would be wise to seek a bigger back as their No. 2, but that says more about their backups. Charles should garner first-round fantasy consideration as the team's featured back.
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The Chiefs players voted Jamaal Charles their MVP.Coach Todd Haley has no doubts about Charles anymore, and neither do his teammates. "Talentwise, I don’t think I’ve ever played with anybody as talented as (Charles) is, with the explosive ability he has," said four-time Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters. The team no longer looks at Charles as a change-of-pace back that can't carry a full load. He'll get some looks in the first round of 2010 fantasy drafts.
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With a shot at the single-game rushing record in the fourth quarter Sunday, Jamaal Charles asked to be taken out in favor of rookie Javarris Williams."I didn't want to do it like that," said Charles, of potentially shattering the mark in garbage time. "I'll get it some other time." He's starting to remind us of Chris Johnson in more ways than one. "We started by saying that this was a 15-carry per game guy," coach Todd Haley said. "He's forced us to think differently about him."
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Jamaal Charles became the first player in NFL history to rush for 1,100 or more yards on less than 200 carries.Charles rushed for 5.9 YPC behind the same line that limited Larry Johnson to 2.7 YPC. While the strong finish against a string of woeful defenses calls to mind busts such as William Green, Anthony Thomas, and Kevin Jones, Charles' homerun hitting ability is legit. Throw in above-average pass-catching skills, and he warrants first-round fantasy consideration in 2010.
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Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
I think Charles is for real, but I don't see him as a stud. I like him just fine as my RB2, but he may not be consistent enough to be a RB1.
Or he may be a stud. We will find out this season for sure.
Wimer is cherry-picking stats, though. Why is Wimer ignoring Charles' first 5 starts, before KC was 3-10? Why are KC's opponents not playing hard, but a losing KC squad is? It's a given that Charles is highly unlikely to produce at the rate he did in the final 3 games, especially given his monstrous final game against Denver. As it has been said, though, he doesn't have to in order to be a good/very good fantasy RB.
Look at his split stats (suscribers)... in short, he excelled in just about every conceivable situation. Early, late, with or without a lead, way behind, way ahead... he was successful in every game situation.
T.Jones had a very good year as well. He played on a very good running team and did well. Jones will certainly be a part of KC's attack.
That doesn't preclude Charles being the lead in a 60-40 split. I certainly do not understand how Charles playing very well against weak opponents is anything except a positive. Level of competition is something to be weighed... but it isn't like Charles only had those 3 big games to close out the season... he had 90+ yards rushing in 6 out of 8 starts, and over 100 yards from scrimmage in 6 out of 8 starts, including a good game against a good Cincy D.
Dexter McCluster weighs 172 lbs.. he is not a RB. He'll be a gimmicky guy to use a few times out of the backfield or on reverses a game and out of the slot. He will not get meaningful carries.
a 60-40 split gives Charles 18+ touches per game... plenty enough to be a RB2. Projecting Jones as the lead back is just being contrarian to be contrarian.
Or he may be a stud. We will find out this season for sure.
Wimer is cherry-picking stats, though. Why is Wimer ignoring Charles' first 5 starts, before KC was 3-10? Why are KC's opponents not playing hard, but a losing KC squad is? It's a given that Charles is highly unlikely to produce at the rate he did in the final 3 games, especially given his monstrous final game against Denver. As it has been said, though, he doesn't have to in order to be a good/very good fantasy RB.
Look at his split stats (suscribers)... in short, he excelled in just about every conceivable situation. Early, late, with or without a lead, way behind, way ahead... he was successful in every game situation.
T.Jones had a very good year as well. He played on a very good running team and did well. Jones will certainly be a part of KC's attack.
That doesn't preclude Charles being the lead in a 60-40 split. I certainly do not understand how Charles playing very well against weak opponents is anything except a positive. Level of competition is something to be weighed... but it isn't like Charles only had those 3 big games to close out the season... he had 90+ yards rushing in 6 out of 8 starts, and over 100 yards from scrimmage in 6 out of 8 starts, including a good game against a good Cincy D.
Dexter McCluster weighs 172 lbs.. he is not a RB. He'll be a gimmicky guy to use a few times out of the backfield or on reverses a game and out of the slot. He will not get meaningful carries.
a 60-40 split gives Charles 18+ touches per game... plenty enough to be a RB2. Projecting Jones as the lead back is just being contrarian to be contrarian.
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After the way he finished last season, I was on the Jamaal Charles bandwagon in a big big way. His YPC was the one stat that had me convinced he was the real deal and the fact that they were treating him as a three-down back for each game had me thinking he would be a huge stud in 2010 and would be a guy responsible for a lot of fantasy championships. Unfortunately, I now think he is overvalued. Thomas Jones has produced on every team he has been with, and I don't think KC will be an exception. His presence will limit Charles' fantasy value.
Glaven
Footballguy
I don't think anyone is arguing with you that Charles was lucky to end the season with a 5.9 YPC. Obviously that will more than likely never be repeated no matter how many or how few carries he will get next year, but that doesn't mean he still can't be a fantasy stud. I find it funny that people are punishing Charles for dominating against weak defenses. The ability to dominate weak defenses is an excellent fantasy asset for a player to have, you can plug him in there and look forward to excellent numbers. I don't get why people look at that as a bad thing.
Charles started against two top 10 defenses last season, and in those games he got 41 carries, 160 rushing yards (3.9 YPC), 5 receptions, 30 receiving yards, 1 TD. If Charles can do that against very good defenses, but do above average against poor defenses, then i don't see how he doesn't easily end up as a top 20 RB, with the upside for much more. The only way he ends up RB32 or worse is by injury imo.
footballsavvy
Footballguy
How about drafting Percey Harvin, then following it up with Toby Gerhart. That doesn't scream 'Adrian Peterson is our guy' to me......First Glen Coffee, then he doesn't pan out so you bring in Anthony Dixon.... That sure doesn't scream 'Frank Gore is our guy' to me.They draft Mike Goodson, then sign Tyrell Sutton then draft a hybrid guy like Armani Edwards. That sure doesn't scream 'Stewart and DeAngelo are our guys' to me.Bring in Frank Summers then draft Johnathan Dwyer... doesn't scream 'Mendenhall will be the work horse' to me.Drafting Rashaad Jennings and turning right around and drafting Karim Deji. Now that sure doesn't scream 'MJD is our guy' to me.Shonn green is screwed with the signing of LT and drafting of Joe McKnight...Ryan Grant is on the outs with James Starks clearly being drafted due to the lack of confidence in Grant....Sorry, CJ - the future is LeGarret Blount.... same goes for Charles Scott taking over for McCoy.. oh I forgot about Mike Bell as well. McCoy might as well retire as none of this scream "You da man McCoy" to me.Looks like I will have to play it safe on roll with Ricky Williams and Cadillac Williams this year since they are the only two back who came out of the off season unscathed. Lucky for me, I read FBG forums and was enlightened, else I could have been stuck with any of the lame duck backs mentioned above.
footballsavvy
Footballguy
Exactly. The best backs in the league don't even tear up bad defenses with that much consistency. And they certainly don't tear up good defenses with consistency. The ability to dominate bad defenses and still do well against good defenses will make you the #1 fantasy back any year that someone doesn't do like Chris Johnson did this year. The arguments against Jamaal Charles are based completely on "hunch" and nothing else. I've never seen such persistent arguments with such little foundation. It's fine that people don't like him, but it would be cool if they just admitted it's a gut feeling instead of making up nonsense.
Sometimes we can really overanalyse things in reguards to players while ignoring the obvious.
This kid is an EXTREME talent.
When in doubt back the TALENT everyday of the week.
He does things with his speed that other RB's can only dream about.
His ceiling is through the roof !
He is a BUY for me no questions at all.
This kid is an EXTREME talent.
When in doubt back the TALENT everyday of the week.
He does things with his speed that other RB's can only dream about.
His ceiling is through the roof !
He is a BUY for me no questions at all.
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ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
Can someone tell me why Eric Metcalf's '89 season has anything to do with JC's '09 season? That they both got ~190 carries? Metcalf ran for 3.4 y/a, and wasn't he a return specialist as well? If a guy can get it done with returns and is pretty mediocre rushing the ball, then you bring another back and let Metcalf return. I just don't see where you're going with that, Mark...
I also looked up your PPR rankings, and I must say you definitely like to go against the grain. I'm interested to see how Chester Taylor, McFadden, Charles and Felix Jones do this year in accordance to your rankings.
I also looked up your PPR rankings, and I must say you definitely like to go against the grain. I'm interested to see how Chester Taylor, McFadden, Charles and Felix Jones do this year in accordance to your rankings.
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Gopher State
Footballguy
Why I don't have a link, I have read where the coach has said in some games this year Jones will have more carries then Charles. I be very careful with the value/where I would draft Charles, it would have to be a VERY large league to draft Charles before the 4th round.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
I think you should check the quotes in post 73 since those are the only quotes anyone has been able to dig up.
footballsavvy
Footballguy
I'm aware of what the coaches have said. That really never changes my opinion. Not saying I know more than the coaches know... but I also know when they are saying things that they won't backup on the field. Things like reducing Chris Johnsons carries or wanting to reduce Frank Gore's load blah blah blah. Sure, I get it. Every coach wants to have two stud running backs like Carolina who they can keep fresh and still have a stud on the field at any point in any game. But the fact is that Carolina is the only team that has that luxury. Thomas Jones is not half the talent of Jamaal. He only achieved 4.5 ypc in two season (out of 10) in his career. His career ypc average is 4.0 which is slightly below the nfl average. To think he is going to exceed his career average at age 32 behind the KC o-line is ridiculous at best. And when a running back isn't even managing to achieve the nfl average when he touches the ball, his carries are going to suffer unless he is the only option on the team. Well, not only is he NOT the only option on the team - their other option happens to be coming off of his first 9 starts where he was 2nd in the NFL and maintained a 5.9 ypc average.They will use Thomas to spell Charles when they have to, but when they are trying to win the football game, they are going to have Charles out there. I don't expect KC to light hte world on fire this season, so I don't think we will see amny situations where they have the game locked up and can grind it out with TJ. If they start the season in Week 1 in some sort of even rotation, I don't think it will take very long for them to gravitate towards more of an 80-20 once they realize Jones can't get it done behind that line against 8 man fronts. And out of all the quotes in post #73 that were listed, here's a few that he decided to leave out:
Hmmm, someone thought it would be wise is they signed a bigger back as a #2 and they went out and did just that. Kudos for predicting the obvious.
Again, the teams sees him as a carry-the-load back. So what has changed to drop him from 1st round consideration to 3rd? The fact that they signed a 32 yr old mediocre veteran backup? lol
Oh, so Hayley says he's not merely a 15 carry per game back (240 carries per season), but rather someone who can handle more than that.... interesting.
An NFL record here and NFL record there.... damn, too bad they signed Thomas Jones else this Charles guy could have been a stud! ....
Just another recap of last season's tidbits. And yet another refrence to his 1st round status in fantasy drafts. Again, its ashame they signed that 32 yr old mediocre veteran running back..... oh to think what Charles could have been....
DRINK ZE KOOL-AID!
He certainly seems to have some elite vision.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRDJg6cW5lc
He certainly seems to have some elite vision.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRDJg6cW5lc
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McCluster is the best RB on that team -- he will add about 15-20 lbs of muscle in the off season making him 5'8 185-190 which nis fine for that hiegth. McCluster is a game breaker that punished noit only cupcakes but SEC opponnets routinely -- he faced the best best D's and tore them up. He has better visdion / moves and big play potential than any play on their roster. McLuster is the RB version of Harvin. Expect Clusters as the slot WR and to get 5-6 carries to start then move into a 50/50 rushing role with Thomas or Charles.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
McCluster hasn't ran for over a 1000 yards like Charles of Thomas Jones....so lets hide a little bit of the enthusiasm.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
CHarles = the most overrated RB going into the season so far.
The Jacket
Footballguy
I like McCluster a lot, though he has size issues, but no. Just no.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHxtxzxXAn0The Moz said:
I love that McCluster ran over and away from SEC defenses, but let's see him do it against NFL defenses before we crown his ###. Charles was not only dominant at Texas but has dominated at the NFL level as well.
McCluster may have the best moves, but no way his big play potential is better than Charles', whose BPP is among the best in the league with the likes of CJ3, DeSean Jackson, etc.
Jamaal Charles went as RB 1.11 in FanEx with DeAngelo Williams as the next pick right after that:
http://youthfantasyfootball.com/fanex/fad0110.htm
http://youthfantasyfootball.com/fanex/fad0110.htm
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Maybe you can answer your own question.Why are you trying to deal him?If the other teams in your league value him as you do (and you think you are right, don't you?) then he'd be a sell for them as well.What would you be willing to give up for him if he were not on your team?Not trying to be a smartass, honest.Remember when people were pimping Ryan Grant and Ernest Graham as potential top 10 backs based on their last 8 games when finally give the starts? What about Steve Slaton heading into last year?Charles is still a gamble at this point. That uncertainty depresses his value.
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IMO:
The Good:
- In a Tweet from FootballOutsiders - they give KC the easiest schedule in the entire league for 2010 (take it with a grain of salt tho)
- The situation should be improved, OG Jon Asamoah should immediately start at RG, TE Tony Moeaki may also win a starting gig and he was one of the better blocking TEs in the draft
The Bad:
- Injury / Fumble Concerns
- Was not effective at catching the ball out of the backfield (-9.5% DVOA)
It's hard to find a lot of comparable players to Charles's 2009 season, but I'll attempt to do so, essentially players that were top 5-10 in Footballoutsiders DVAR statistic and who did so in under 200 carries.
2009: P. Thomas (Already an established player - was injured most of the year)
2008: D. Ward (Moved from NYG to Tampa, obviously the situation went from great to terrible)
2007: L. Maroney (Had a nice year but not the year Charles had in 2009, was injured in 2008 and never returned to form in 2009)
2004: P. Holmes (Was already established by this point in his career - I believe 2004 was an injury shorted season)
2002: C. Gardner (Veteran back who had a good season followed by an injury shortened year in 2003 and then being shipped to Tampa in 2004)
2001: T. Barber (Probably the closest comparison but had already had a nice year in 2000 - but his career really took off after his 2001 injury shorted season)
Obviously the talent is there - it's hard to look back and find top 5 DVAR players who were young up-and-coming players who seriously disappointed. If your down on Charles you can look at Lawrence Maroney and have the same sort of projections - talented back who played well but has succumb to injury/fumble issues and his team's willingness to use RBBC. He is now a marginal fantasy talent (he still had a really good stretch last year) but again Maroney never played as well as Charles did in 2009, despite being in a much better situation.
If your high on him than you look at Tiki Barber and project that sort of career path - although Tiki also had to clean up his fumbling issues.
While some would argue that he put up numbers because he was a boom-or-bust runner a la Chris Johnson... he was actually remarkably consistent. His 53% "Success Rate" was 7th best in the league. So he should continue to put up numbers whether or not he is breaking long runs. Sometimes you can use this metric to sort out fantasy fool's gold - i.e., a guy like DeShaun Foster.
You can read about success rate here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-anal...ck-success-rate
The Good:
- In a Tweet from FootballOutsiders - they give KC the easiest schedule in the entire league for 2010 (take it with a grain of salt tho)
- The situation should be improved, OG Jon Asamoah should immediately start at RG, TE Tony Moeaki may also win a starting gig and he was one of the better blocking TEs in the draft
The Bad:
- Injury / Fumble Concerns
- Was not effective at catching the ball out of the backfield (-9.5% DVOA)
It's hard to find a lot of comparable players to Charles's 2009 season, but I'll attempt to do so, essentially players that were top 5-10 in Footballoutsiders DVAR statistic and who did so in under 200 carries.
2009: P. Thomas (Already an established player - was injured most of the year)
2008: D. Ward (Moved from NYG to Tampa, obviously the situation went from great to terrible)
2007: L. Maroney (Had a nice year but not the year Charles had in 2009, was injured in 2008 and never returned to form in 2009)
2004: P. Holmes (Was already established by this point in his career - I believe 2004 was an injury shorted season)
2002: C. Gardner (Veteran back who had a good season followed by an injury shortened year in 2003 and then being shipped to Tampa in 2004)
2001: T. Barber (Probably the closest comparison but had already had a nice year in 2000 - but his career really took off after his 2001 injury shorted season)
Obviously the talent is there - it's hard to look back and find top 5 DVAR players who were young up-and-coming players who seriously disappointed. If your down on Charles you can look at Lawrence Maroney and have the same sort of projections - talented back who played well but has succumb to injury/fumble issues and his team's willingness to use RBBC. He is now a marginal fantasy talent (he still had a really good stretch last year) but again Maroney never played as well as Charles did in 2009, despite being in a much better situation.
If your high on him than you look at Tiki Barber and project that sort of career path - although Tiki also had to clean up his fumbling issues.
While some would argue that he put up numbers because he was a boom-or-bust runner a la Chris Johnson... he was actually remarkably consistent. His 53% "Success Rate" was 7th best in the league. So he should continue to put up numbers whether or not he is breaking long runs. Sometimes you can use this metric to sort out fantasy fool's gold - i.e., a guy like DeShaun Foster.
You can read about success rate here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-anal...ck-success-rate
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
Magic_Man said:
Charles is the name everyone remembers from last year, but he's a brittle 200 lb RB that just had offseason shoulder surgery. And I'm not buying McCluster as strictly a WR. Add in Thomas Jones as well. You can go ahead and draft him, Pass.ninerfanatic492000
Footballguy
so obviously he can't be a Chris Johnson type b/c Chris has avoided major surgery.........oh wait. RB's having offseason shoulder surgery, i for one have never heard of this before. if Charles can't take the pounding then i fear for McClusters life when he touches the ball. the vet FA market was a joke(as usual) and what did the jets do? they already knew or thought Leon wouldn't be right this year(if ever) and didn't seriously try to resign to what looked to be the best option at RB.........hmmm, what did they know. could it be his over the hill swoon at the end of the year and the playoffs behind the best OL in the league? he didn't even have a injury or need surgery post season. now he goes from getting 3yards untouched to having make guys miss in the backfield(never remotely been his strength)i fully expect charles touches to go down from what he was receiving late in the year. instead of getting 25+ he'll likely go down to 20ish total. he has shown that he can still be very very effective in that range. he should still flirt with 1600-1700 total yards pretty easily IMHOMagic_Man said:
