Jax defense ranking (1 Viewer)

[None_More_Black]

So the Titans are considered to have a tough passing matchup and a bad rushing matchup against the Jax D this week. I think most would agree with this opinion. Problem is Jax D is the 28th ranked defense on the cheatsheets. This is criminally low. If you don't start Jax D at home against the Titans this week when do you start them? I think Footballguys needs to do a better job of reconciling the rushing/passing matchups and the rankings or some of this content is going to seem a little like fluff. (I know different people do different parts of the content.) Big fan for the most part.

 

[Wadsworth]

Yea, that does seem insane. Vince Young did nothing against the Jags last season and none of the titan RBs look ready to rip up the Jags D. If David Garrard doesn't give any TDs away I'd say a shut out was more likely than the Jags being 28th this week.

 

[Frank Black]

I agree. I am mystified at the Jax ranking this week.

 

[Sylira21]

Well, the ranking is based mainly off of projected sacks, turnovers and Touchdowns, not points or yards allowed. I'll be honest, that scoring system is almost random. That being said, the projections don't make sense in my mind. This is a great matchup for Jacksonville, who was projected as a top-ten defense in about every pre-season ranking I saw.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

just out of curiosity, where are they 28th? i only have prelim cheatsheets in my inbox with no access to the site, and they are 5th.

i love the matchup too fwiw

 

[Sylira21]

just out of curiosity, where are they 28th?

Yesterday's updated cheatsheets

 

[JuSt CuZ]

There solid as can be, some one in my league just dropped them for Michael Bennett, I dropped Carolina's D and grabbed JAX..........#### STEAL if you ask me!!!!

= My excitment

 

[silentbob]

I am torn on this issue. I had the Dolphins DST and was all ready to drop them for the Jaguars DST until I saw the FBG Week 1 rankings.

My take is that the Jaguars are playing at home and have shut down Vince Young in the past, but they don't necessarily generate as many sacks or INTs as the Dolphins, who are sack machines but play on the road against a conservative offense. And I play in a league where sacks/INTs/FRs get 2/3/2 points.

This is bordering on a DIS post, but should I pick up the Jaguars or not? Football Outsiders have them ranked as the #1 defense in DVOA, though obviously as noted above that doesn't necessarily translate into fantasy points.

 

[Tampa Buc]

I've been having some real problems with the cheatsheets also. Here are 2 posts I put in Bruce's forum yesterday.

(1) My leagues can start 1QB 1RB 2WR 1Te 1 Def and 1 flex RB or WR. Also get 1 pt. per PPR. 6pts for td except for QB.

This morning I manually used the custom cheat sheet for my league based on Dodds/Norton Projections to get my pts. scored this week by position for trying to set up my starters. After doing this I thought I was pretty well set on my starters. After reading your post, I went into the DD and set my Game By Game to week one at 1.0 and the rest at 0.

Now since I have been using the PD for all my drafts with each expert being weighted at 20% each, I imported their projections into the DD and am coming up with very different numbers for the weekly totals. In most cases (I got 5 teams) it is telling me to start 1RB's and 3 WR's.

The biggest difference I see for a player is Dodds/Norton have Tatum Bell for 12.1 pts. (vs. Oakland) and now the DD has him for 18.5 which is about 6 pts. higher than Cadalic and Benson. Even more confusing is when I click on his player web page from the DD I see:

15 rushes 62 yds. .03 TD 2 Rec. 15yds. 0.1TD 10FPT!!!!!!!! This looks about right for my scoring system.

Please tell me what I am doing wrong or what projections to believe. Are the Dodds/Henry projections the best we have for now or can I even use the weight projections from the PD to get my numbers.

TIA

(2)Thanks for your guys replies but now that I think about it isn't the whole process a little contradictory. First off I'm sure many people like myself used the PD and weighted experts to do their draft. In other words we wanted to spread the risk and not depend on one or two people. Now we are starting to pick starters and we only have basically Dodd's numbers to rely on in the LD.

Think of this for example although I am using made up numbers. 4 of the experts really like Oakland's defense so they each projected 220 pts. Dodds think they stink and projected 120 pts. giving them a total of 1000 pts divided by 5 equals 200 pts. With 200 pts this puts Oaklands defense say in the top 3 so I drafted them very high. Now out comes the LD and since Dodds thinks they will only score 120 pts he has them ranked in the bottom 3 and should never see the playing field. In some instances this is actually happening as in the Tatum Bell case I mentioned in the above post.

Now I am thinking did I make a big mistake in drafting Oakland so high. According to Dodds I did. I might also think I had a great draft but when I look at the LD it sucks according to Dodds.

I think you see where I am going with this and would very much like to hear your thoughts. Maybe ALL 5 of the experts should be required to do projections for the LD if we are depending on their numbers to do our draft. Let me also say I have been using the LD the past 3 years with Dodds projections only and for the most part they have been pretty good for me. Maybe I just got lucky.

It just seems crazy to me to use one set of projections (average of 5 experts) for your draft and another (Dodds) for your starting lineups. Now we are kind of seeing the same thing with the cheatsheets.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I am torn on this issue. I had the Dolphins DST and was all ready to drop them for the Jaguars DST until I saw the FBG Week 1 rankings.My take is that the Jaguars are playing at home and have shut down Vince Young in the past, but they don't necessarily generate as many sacks or INTs as the Dolphins, who are sack machines but play on the road against a conservative offense. And I play in a league where sacks/INTs/FRs get 2/3/2 points.This is bordering on a DIS post, but should I pick up the Jaguars or not? Football Outsiders have them ranked as the #1 defense in DVOA, though obviously as noted above that doesn't necessarily translate into fantasy points.

I have shied away from Jax as a fantasy D because of lack of turnovers. If your league gives decent pts for low yardage and scoring they might be good.